volcafe nca 2014
DESCRIPTION
Volcafe coffee reports - its all about the weatherTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Volcafe NCA 2014](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050817/556124ddd8b42aa06b8b4cbc/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
VISIT PAULIG
WINTERTHUR JANUARY 2013
Volcafe, the Coffee Division of ED&F Man
Coffee Supply and Demand
NCA New Orleans 2014
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agenda
everything else
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agenda
• some perspective • brazil • vietnam • american milds • demand rationing • balances
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global coffee production
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1009
0/9
1
91
/92
92
/93
93
/94
94
/95
95
/96
96
/97
97
/98
98
/99
99
/00
00
/01
01
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02
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/05
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/06
06
/07
07
/08
08
/09
09
/10
10
/11
11
/12
12
/13
13
/14
14
/15
mio
bag
s
Others
Brazil & Vietnam
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global coffee production share
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%9
0/9
1
91
/92
92
/93
93
/94
94
/95
95
/96
96
/97
97
/98
98
/99
99
/00
00
/01
01
/02
02
/03
03
/04
04
/05
05
/06
06
/07
07
/08
08
/09
09
/10
10
/11
11
/12
12
/13
13
/14
14
/15
shar
e
Brazil & Vietnam
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climate change
RANK YEAR ANOMALY (C) ANOMALY (F)
1 2010 0.66 1.19
2 2005 0.65 1.17
3 1998 0.63 1.13
4 2013 0.62 1.12
5 2003 0.62 1.12
6 2002 0.61 1.10
7 2006 0.60 1.08
8 2009 0.59 1.07
9 2007 0.59 1.06
10 2004 0.57 1.04
TOP 10 WARMEST YEARS 1880-2013
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climate change
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climate change
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agenda
• some perspective • brazil • vietnam • american milds • demand rationing • balances
![Page 10: Volcafe NCA 2014](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050817/556124ddd8b42aa06b8b4cbc/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
brazilian summer drought
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brazilian summer drought
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brazilian summer drought
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brazilian summer drought
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brazilian summer drought
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brazilian summer drought
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brazilian summer drought
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brazilian summer drought
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brazil rainfall forecast
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ARABICA COFFEE TREE PHENOLOGY IN BRAZIL
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
2014/15
cropReproductive
2015/16
cropVegetative
Source: Assad, Coltri, and Pinto
Vegetative growth, formation of productive nodes & vegetative buds Induction, differentiation, dormancy of flower buds
Flowering, fixing and fruit swelling Bean formation MaturationRest and dieback of
branches
brazil
weather problem starts
coffeeandclimate.org
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ARABICA COFFEE TREE PHENOLOGY IN BRAZIL
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
2014/15
cropReproductive
2015/16
cropVegetative
Source: Assad, Coltri, and Pinto
Vegetative growth, formation of productive nodes & vegetative buds Induction, differentiation, dormancy of flower buds
Flowering, fixing and fruit swelling Bean formation MaturationRest and dieback of
branches
brazil
weather problem starts
coffeeandclimate.org
![Page 21: Volcafe NCA 2014](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050817/556124ddd8b42aa06b8b4cbc/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
brazil 2014/15: dec 2013 survey
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brazil 2014/15 forecast (at Dec 13)
Brazilian Coffee Crop 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
Mn 60 kg bags Dez 13
Minas Gerais 21.1 29.0 22.20 27.70 29.10 23.70
Cerrado 4.0 6.1 3.90 6.50 5.20 5.70
South Minas 11.6 15.9 12.50 15.20 15.40 11.80
Zona da Mata 5.5 7.0 5.80 6.00 8.50 6.20
ES 12.6 13.8 14.40 16.00 15.80 14.70
ES-Arabica 2.1 3.1 2.40 2.30 3.30 2.70
ES-Robusta 10.5 10.7 12.00 13.70 12.50 12.00
Sao Paulo 3.5 5.7 3.30 5.00 4.20 4.60
Mogiana 1.9 3.3 1.80 3.10 2.20 2.90
Paulista 0.9 1.5 0.70 1.10 1.05 0.90
Sorocabana 0.7 0.8 0.80 0.80 0.95 0.80
Parana 1.8 2.5 1.80 1.80 1.70 1.20
BA 3.0 3.3 3.00 3.20 2.70 3.00
BA-Arabica 2.0 2.5 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.80
BA-Robusta 1.0 0.8 1.00 1.40 1.10 1.20
RO 1.5 1.5 1.70 1.10 1.50 1.50
Others 1.5 1.8 1.60 2.00 2.20 2.00
Other-Arabica (GO, RJ, Others) 0.5 0.8 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.60
Other-Robusta (MG, MT, PA, RJ) 1.0 1.0 1.00 1.30 1.40 1.40
TOTAL 45.0 57.6 48.00 56.80 57.20 50.70
Arabica 31.0 43.6 32.30 39.30 40.70 34.60
Robusta 14.0 14.0 15.70 17.50 16.50 16.10
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new 2014/15 fieldwork sdm/mogiana
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new 2014/15 fieldwork sdm/mogiana
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new 2014/15 fieldwork sdm/mogiana
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new 2014/15 fieldwork sdm/mogiana
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new 2014/15 fieldwork sdm/mogiana
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new 2014/15 fieldwork sdm/mogiana
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new 2014/15 fieldwork sdm/mogiana
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new 2014/15 fieldwork sdm/mogiana
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new 2014/15 fieldwork cerrado
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new 2014/15 fieldwork cerrado
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new 2014/15 fieldwork cerrado
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new 2014/15 fieldwork cerrado
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new 2014/15 fieldwork cerrado
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brazil soil moisture deficit south minas
source: Procafé bulletin
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brazil soil moisture deficit south minas
source: Procafé bulletin
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brazil soil moisture deficit south minas
source: Procafé bulletin
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brazil soil moisture deficit cerrado
source: Procafé bulletin
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brazil soil moisture deficit cerrado
source: Procafé bulletin
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2014/15: a numbers game..
mio bags green
South Minas 11.8
Mogiana 2.9
Cerrado 5.7
ZDM 6.2
ES Arabica 2.7
29.3
take 29.3 mio bags
yield loss
480 litres cherry
per 1 bag green
bean becomes
loss
(bags green)
crop no.
(bags green)
2% 490 0.6 50.1
4% 500 1.2 49.5
8% 520 2.4 48.3
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brazil balance
![Page 43: Volcafe NCA 2014](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050817/556124ddd8b42aa06b8b4cbc/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
ARABICA COFFEE TREE PHENOLOGY IN BRAZIL
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
2014/15
cropReproductive
2015/16
cropVegetative
Source: Assad, Coltri, and Pinto
Vegetative growth, formation of productive nodes & vegetative buds Induction, differentiation, dormancy of flower buds
Flowering, fixing and fruit swelling Bean formation MaturationRest and dieback of
branches
brazil 2015/16
weather problem starts
coffeeandclimate.org
![Page 44: Volcafe NCA 2014](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050817/556124ddd8b42aa06b8b4cbc/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
ARABICA COFFEE TREE PHENOLOGY IN BRAZIL
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
2014/15
cropReproductive
2015/16
cropVegetative
Source: Assad, Coltri, and Pinto
Vegetative growth, formation of productive nodes & vegetative buds Induction, differentiation, dormancy of flower buds
Flowering, fixing and fruit swelling Bean formation MaturationRest and dieback of
branches
brazil 2015/16
weather problem starts
coffeeandclimate.org
![Page 45: Volcafe NCA 2014](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050817/556124ddd8b42aa06b8b4cbc/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
brazil 2015/16 – no of new nodes/branch
source: Procafé bulletin
for 2011/12 for 2012/13 for 2013/14 for 2014/15 for 2015/16
February of: 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Varginha 5.9 6.3 5.4 7.0 6.2
Carmo Minas 4.9 6.3 5.5 6.7 6.4
Boa Esperanca 5.4 7.1 5.8 6.9 6.4
Muzambinho #N/A 5.8 6.4 5.8 6.4
Araxa #N/A 6.8 6.8 6.5 5.6
Patrocinio #N/A 6.9 5.7 6.7 6.6
Araguari #N/A 6.9 6.9 6.4 6.2
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brazil 2015/16 – node recap
Process
Vegetative/
Reproductive Part Site Maximum number Normal Number
Vegetative
Growth Node Axil of Leaves
Per Branch :
N/A 8
Vegetative
Growth
Vegetative
Bud/Meristem
Node
(but invisible) Per Node: 12 8 or 10
Initiation /
Induction
Floral Bud (still
reversible) Node (invisible) Per Node: 12 6 or 8
Differentiation
Floral Bud
(irreversible)
Node
(visible) Per Node: 12 6 or 8
Flowering Flowers Floral Bud Per Node: 48
around 25 on a
good year?
Fixing Cherries Floral Bud Per Node: 48
60 -100% fixation
rate?
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brazil 2015/16
vegetative bud gema vegetativa
flowering bud gema floral
branch (rarely)
remain undifferentiated to
conserve energy (and instead grow leaves,
grow other floral buds)
1.
2.
3.
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brazil 2015/16
source: Majerowicz & Söndahl 2005
• ‘Little is known about the induction and development process of reproductive buds in Coffea arabica. Most of the information available covers the more advanced developmental phases of reproductive buds.’
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brazil 2015/16
source: adapted from Camayo e Arcila, 1996
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FOCUS FLORAL BUDS - INDUCTION & DIFFERENTIATION - ANOTHER SOURCE
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
New
branchesDifferentiation
2nd/3rd etc
crop
branches
Source: Majerowicz & Sondahl
2015/16
crop
Induction Differentiation
Induction Dormancy
brazil 2015/16
weather problem starts
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agenda
• some perspective • brazil • vietnam • american milds • demand rationing • balances & prices
![Page 52: Volcafe NCA 2014](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050817/556124ddd8b42aa06b8b4cbc/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
vietnam rainfall
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vietnam reservoir level
![Page 54: Volcafe NCA 2014](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050817/556124ddd8b42aa06b8b4cbc/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
agenda
• some perspective • brazil • vietnam • american milds • demand rationing • balances & prices
![Page 55: Volcafe NCA 2014](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050817/556124ddd8b42aa06b8b4cbc/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
colombia recovery, centrals decline
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colombia official green imports
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2011 2012 2013
mio
bag
s
Brazil
Ecuador
Peru
![Page 57: Volcafe NCA 2014](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050817/556124ddd8b42aa06b8b4cbc/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
venezuela official green imports
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
2010 2011 2012
mio
bag
s
Costa Rica
Honduras
Brazil
Nicaragua
![Page 58: Volcafe NCA 2014](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050817/556124ddd8b42aa06b8b4cbc/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
centrals in detail
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peru
![Page 60: Volcafe NCA 2014](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050817/556124ddd8b42aa06b8b4cbc/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
peru
![Page 61: Volcafe NCA 2014](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050817/556124ddd8b42aa06b8b4cbc/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
diffs
![Page 62: Volcafe NCA 2014](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050817/556124ddd8b42aa06b8b4cbc/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
agenda
• some perspective • brazil • vietnam • american milds • demand rationing • balances
![Page 63: Volcafe NCA 2014](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050817/556124ddd8b42aa06b8b4cbc/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
changing demand
Traditional Coffee Markets – W Europe, US, Canada, Japan
0.9 bio people
4.9 kg coffee per person per year
1% growth per year
Non-traditional Coffee Markets
6.2 bio people
0.7 kg coffee per person per year
4% growth per year
mio
bag
s
![Page 64: Volcafe NCA 2014](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050817/556124ddd8b42aa06b8b4cbc/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
asia wins
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arb
![Page 66: Volcafe NCA 2014](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050817/556124ddd8b42aa06b8b4cbc/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
huge substitution cannot happen again
![Page 67: Volcafe NCA 2014](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050817/556124ddd8b42aa06b8b4cbc/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
robusta supply then and now
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2011/12 2013/14
mio
bag
s
liffe stocks (start season)
yoy increase in vietnam supply
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total demand rationing
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agenda
• some perspective • brazil • vietnam • american milds • demand rationing • balances & prices
![Page 70: Volcafe NCA 2014](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050817/556124ddd8b42aa06b8b4cbc/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
arabica balances
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global arabica stocks
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robusta balances
![Page 73: Volcafe NCA 2014](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050817/556124ddd8b42aa06b8b4cbc/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
global robusta stocks
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total s&d
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total global coffee stocks
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robusta ratios vs price
![Page 77: Volcafe NCA 2014](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050817/556124ddd8b42aa06b8b4cbc/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
arabica ratios vs price
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all stock/demand ratios
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arabica price
Comparison of bull markets in arabica, from break-out to peak.
![Page 80: Volcafe NCA 2014](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050817/556124ddd8b42aa06b8b4cbc/html5/thumbnails/80.jpg)
2015/16
If demand is 153 mio bags and production outside of Brazil & Vietnam holds still at 67 mio bags then Brazil and Vietnam need to produce 86 mio bags between them to balance the coffee market.
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Thank you