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1 Decision-Relevant Science for Water Security 8 July 2015
DECISION-RELEVANT SCIENCE FOR WATER SECURITY:
An iterative process for targeting and
evaluating watershed investments
Adrian L. Vogl*, Joshua Goldstein, Rob McDonald, Perrine Hamel, Mary Ruckelshaus
* Natural Capital Project, Stanford University
Our Common Future Conference, 8 July 2015
2 Decision-Relevant Science for Water Security 8 July 2015
OUTLINE
• Investments in Watershed Services (IWS) as a climate change adaptation strategy
• The benefits of and barriers to IWS
• Addressing the Information Gap through targeted decision support tools
• Examples
– Regional screening for IWS opportunities
– Designing efficient IWS to improve ecosystem services for beneficiaries
• Key Frontiers and ongoing challenges
3 Decision-Relevant Science for Water Security 8 July 2015
INVESTMENTS IN WATERSHED
SERVICES:
AN EMERGING APPROACH TO WATER
SECURITY
4 Decision-Relevant Science for Water Security 8 July 2015
Bennett &
Carroll 2014
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Locations of Water
Funds (in operation as of
Jan 2014)
Created and operating
In design
EXPANDING WATER FUNDS
Sources: Latin American
Water Funds Partnership
Dashboard (Nov 2013);
TNC Internal Survey of
Water Funds (Dec 2013)
GET UPDATED
MAP fr SOWI 2014
doc
6 Decision-Relevant Science for Water Security 8 July 2015
Bennett &
Carroll 2014
7 Decision-Relevant Science for Water Security 8 July 2015
Photo by Leah Bremer
BENEFITS OF IWS
• Co-benefits for many environmental services
• Carbon emissions mitigation
• Retain options for future development and adaptation to changing climate conditions
• Potential to bring together diverse stakeholders & funding sources around a critical resource
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BARRIERS TO IWS
Institutional – disconnect between providers and beneficiaries of land practices that enhance water security.
• Lack of incentives for cooperation
• Risk of non-traditional strategies
Markets – externalities in costs and benefits
• Full-cost accounting for water
• Knowledge of and support for creative financial mechanisms
Information – disconnect between scientific knowledge and decision support for assessing nature’s benefits.
• Tools and information targeted to decision context
• Comparable grey/green performance metrics
Modified from: Turner
& Daily 2008
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ADDRESSING THE
INFORMATION GAP
10 Decision-Relevant Science for Water Security 8 July 2015
Individual Households
Communities
Employees
Local Municipalities
Water Utilities
Watershed Councils
Corp. Facilities
Regional/
National Nations
States or Provinces
Regional Operations
Global Multi-laterals
Corporations
Dev. aid agencies
NGOs
ACTORS
WHO DECIDES?
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- Assess IWS options
- Quantify co-benefits and
engage partners
- Assess ROI
- Design local IWS programs
- Monitor program impacts
- Design policies to
implement targets
- Create incentives for IWS
- Direct resources to
programs with highest ROI
- Monitor policy impacts
- Decide to
participate based on
information, capacity
and incentives
- Implement
according to site-
specific conditions
- Set sustainability goals
& IWS targets
- Influence policy
- Allocate infrastructure
funds to IWS
- Monitor progress
toward targets
Individual Households
Communities
Employees
Local Municipalities
Water Utilities
Watershed Councils
Corp. Facilities
Regional/
National Nations
States or Provinces
Regional Operations
Global Multi-laterals
Corporations
Dev. aid agencies
NGOs
ACTORS
ACTIONS
WHO DECIDES?
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- Decide to
participate based on
information, capacity
and incentives
- Implement
according to site-
specific conditions
- Assess IWS options
- Quantify co-benefits and
engage partners
- Assess ROI
- Design local IWS programs
- Monitor program impacts
- Set sustainability goals
& IWS targets
- Influence policy
- Allocate infrastructure
funds to IWS
- Monitor progress
toward targets
Individual Households
Communities
Employees
Local Municipalities
Water Utilities
Watershed Councils
Corp. Facilities
Global Multi-laterals
Corporations
Dev. aid agencies
NGOs
- Assess IWS options
- Quantify co-benefits and
engage partners
- Assess ROI
- Design local IWS programs
- Monitor program impacts
- Design policies to
implement targets
- Create incentives for IWS
- Direct resources to
programs with highest ROI
- Monitor policy impacts
- Decide to
participate based on
information, capacity
and incentives
- Implement
according to site-
specific conditions
- Set sustainability goals
& IWS targets
- Influence policy
- Allocate infrastructure
funds to IWS
- Monitor progress
toward targets
Individual Households
Communities
Employees
Local Municipalities
Water Utilities
Watershed Councils
Corp. Facilities
Regional/
National Nations
States or Provinces
Regional Operations
Global Multi-laterals
Corporations
Dev. aid agencies
NGOs
ACTORS
ACTIONS
SCREENING: RISKS & OPPORTUNITIES
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McDonald &
Shemie 2014
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Area of reforestation to get a 10 percent reduction
in phosphorus, by city.
McDonald &
Shemie 2014
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SOURCE WATER
PROTECTION SCREENING
WEB APPLICATION
• Update analyses (spatial connectivity, in-stream nutrient attenuation)
• Transform to web portal
• Launch in October 2015 at IWA
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- Design policies to
implement targets
- Create incentives for IWS
- Direct resources to
programs with highest ROI
- Monitor policy impacts
- Decide to
participate based on
information, capacity
and incentives
- Implement
according to site-
specific conditions
- Set sustainability goals
& IWS targets
- Influence policy
- Allocate infrastructure
funds to IWS
- Monitor progress
toward targets
Individual Households
Communities
Employees
Regional/
National Nations
States or Provinces
Regional Operations
Global Multi-laterals
Corporations
Dev. aid agencies
NGOs
ACTORS
ACTIONS
- Assess IWS options
- Quantify co-benefits and
engage partners
- Assess ROI
- Design local IWS programs
- Monitor program impacts
Local Municipalities
Water Utilities
Watershed Councils
Corp. Facilities
DESIGNING IWS FOR ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
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A STREAMLINED APPROACH FOR LATIN
AMERICAN WATER FUNDS
RIOS Core Team Advisory Group
Software Development Team
Science Team
Resource
Investment
Optimization
System
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Biophysical
effectiveness
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Biophysical
effectiveness
Feasible
activities
Stakeholder
preferences
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Biophysical
effectiveness
Feasible
activities
Stakeholder
preferences
Cost data
Budget
Investment
Portfolio
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EXAMPLE UPPER TANA – NAIROBI
WATER FUND, KENYA
Drinking water for 4 million people, 60%
of Nairobi’s energy
Objectives: Improve sediment retention
(water quality) and dry season
baseflow (water supply)
Activities:
• Terracing
• Grass strips
• Road mitigation
• Reforestation
• Agroforestry
• Riparian management
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Sagana
Maragua
Thika-Chania
3.0M
4.5M
2.5M
Investment Portfolios $10 million USD
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CONCLUSIONS
• New methods to make information accessible and decision-ready are critical
– stakeholder and policymaker engagement is key
• Information itself is not enough – also requires high-level policy support for
– “risky” institutional and financial mechanisms
– broader array of acceptable performance metrics for infrastructure performance
– financial and regulatory incentives to increase corporate engagement
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LINKS
• Urban Water Blueprint results: http://water.nature.org/waterblueprint/
• RIOS model: http://www.naturalcapitalproject.org/RIOS.html
• Nairobi Water Fund application: http://www.nature.org/ourinitiatives/regions/africa/explore/nairobi-water-fund.xml
25 Decision-Relevant Science for Water Security 8 July 2015
Heather Tallis, Stacie Wolny, Fernando Veiga, Paulo Petry, Juan Sebastián Lozano,
Silvia Benitez, Jorge Leon, Rich Sharp, James Douglass, Leah Bremer, Eddie Game
Special thanks to the Water Funds Working Group, the Latin American Water Funds
Platform, The Nature Conservancy, Water Funds Secretariats, Staff and Partners.
Funding provided by the Gordon & Betty Moore Foundation.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS