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www.vcsc.com.vn| VCSC Viet Capital Securities | 1

See important disclosure at the end of this document

Vinamilk (VNM)

18 March 2011

VND84,500BUY

19 December 2012

Growth and valuation11A 12E 13E 14E 15E

Revenues (VND bn) 21,627 26,441 32,101 39,166 47,433

Operating profit (VND bn) 4,317 5,818 6,870 8,718 11,025

OP margin (%) 20.0% 22.0% 21.4% 22.3% 23.2%

Net profit (VND m) 4,218 5,202 6,047 7,409 8,877

EPS (VND) 5,288 6,236 7,249 8,882 10,641

EPS growth (%) 16% 18% 16% 23% 20%

DPS (VND) 2,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000

BPS (VND) 15,641 19,193 26,776 31,658 38,299

PER (x) 24.6 20.8 17.9 14.6 12.2

PBR (x) 8.3 6.8 4.9 4.1 3.4

Dividend yield (%) 2.3% 2.3% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%

ROE (%) 33.8% 32.5% 27.1% 28.1% 27.8%

Debt/(D+E) (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

A safe havenInvestors appear to recognize the competitive advantages and growth

opportunities of Vinamilk. The company has a good brandname, economy

of scales, an extensive distribution network, and expanding production

capacity to meet growing demand. Given the lack of viable alternatives in

the Vietnamese stock market, we believe it will remain a safe haven for

investors despite its relatively high PER. We initiate with a Buy

recommendation and a target price of VND106,000.

Double digit growth potential

Vietnam still has one of the lowest levels of dairy consumption in the world, and

so Vinamilk can still maintain double-digit growth in revenue and net profit.Growth in demand is being supported by the growing middle class and educationon dairy nutrition. Vinamilk can catch the opportunity with its nationwidedistribution network and expanding capacity.

Stable profit margin

Vinamilks profit margin will remain stable. VNM can pass most of its higher rawmaterial costs to its consumers. Economies of scale and effective inventory andexpense management will reduce its unit cost. Hence, Vinamilks profit margins,ROE and ROA will remain high.

Plenty of cash to pay dividends

Vinamilk will make most of its capacity expansion in FY12, and vertical

expansion in coming years will cost less. The company has no outstanding debtand strong operating cash flow, so financing future investments and dividends isnot an issue. Vinamilk will pay a dividend of VND 3,000 per share in FY12.

Target price offers some upsideOur target price of VND106,000 per share is based on its historic average PERand PBR as well as our DCF method. Compared with its region peers, we notethat VNM tends to trade at a lower PER, though a direct comparison is difficultgiven Vietnams high inflation rate. The foreign price of VNM is now at our targetprice, and VNM represents 12% of the Ho Chi Minh Index.

Anh NguyenSenior Analyst

[email protected]+84 8 3 914 3588 ext. 194

Initiation

Target price VND106,000

Upside 25%

Consumer Goods

Market cap US$3,439m

Shares outstanding 834m

12M High VND92,700

12M Low VND52,000

Foreign ownership 49%

Foreign limit 49%

Ownership

Shareholder (state) 45.0%

F&N Dairy Investment 9.5%

Dragon Capital 7.4%

Deutsch Bank AG 5.4%

Others 32.6%

Company Description

Vinamilk is the largest dairy company with39% market share. With more than 30years in the market, Vinamilk hasestablished an excellent brand name for itsproduct portfolio that includes powderedmilk, liquid milk, yogurt, condensed milkand fruit juices. The products are producedand distributed nationwide.

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Investment thesis

Strengths

The dairy industry has grown at a CAGR of 17% for the period from FY06 to FY11 in

revenue and 8.1% in volume from FY03 to FY11. However, dairy consumption is still lowcompare to the region and to world standards, implying strong long-term growth potential.

With 30 years of history, diversified products, a trusted brandname, Vinamilk holds a

leading industry position with a 39% market share in FY10. Continued aggressive brand

building, educating customer and pioneer products will assure Vinamilk hangs onto this

position. Overall growth will be supported by low dairy consumption, large population and

increasing income by the middle class.

Our forecast sees potential growth of 6.5% in volume for the next 5 years for the industry.

We estimate that VNM will continue to achieve growth rate of 21% and 16% in revenue

and net profit respectively in FY13. Onward, revenue and profit will both sustain at 22% for

the next 5 years. In addition, its cash position allows VNM to continue paying dividend of

VND 3,000 per share in FY13 and potentially increasing it in later years.

The risks

There is increasing competition from local and foreign players. A local player, TH Milk, had

started to invest US$400mn for its factory and cow farm, expected to invest total of

US$1.2bn in the dairy industry. Increasing investment in cow farm, factory and strong

advertisement from Friesland Campina to expand production and increase its market

share. Number of smaller players (Long Thanh Milk, Moc Chau, Ba Vi milk) entered liquid

and yogurt market segment, which provide more substitute products, create more

competitive market. With lower import-tax for dairy products (3%-5%) encouraging the

flow of brandname dairy products to Vietnam. It could affect Vinamilk revenue and lower

profit margin.

Raw material accounts for more than 60% of COGs, in which high percentage is imported,

and so any change in raw material price could put a huge affect to Vinamilks profit

margin.

VNM cannot immediately transfer all the volatile of raw material to its customer via selling

price adjustment. In FY09, Whole milk powder (WMP) price decreased from US$4/kg to

2.8/kg, which is 41% decline, but the gross margin increased from 32% to 37%. However,

VNM gradually increase its selling price and cleverly manage its inventory to partially

hedging this risk. For FY09/11, WMP increased 53.6%, from US$ 2.8/kg to 4.3/kg, still

gross margin reduced from 37% to 31% due to these matters.

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Figure 1: International whole milk powder (WMP) and skim milk price

Source:www.wisc.edu

Figure 2: Vinamilk price and historical P/E,P/B

Source: Bloomberg

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Industry Overview

No history of dairy consumptionDairy consumption per capital has increased strongly from 9kg in FY03 to 15.7kg in FY11.

The CAGR for this period is 8.1%, but compared with average consumption in Asia Pacific

and the world, Vietnam falls into lowest range. Vietnam is only 16% of average Pacific

Asia milk consumption and 7% of daily-recommended nutrition.

Figure 3: Dairy consumption per capital

Source: Food and Agriculture Policy Research Institute (FARPI)

Figure 4: US Dairy recommendation (2,000 cal)

Min Max

Milk Intake/day per adult (250 ml) 2 3

Daily intake in litres 0.47 0.7

Yearly intake in litres 172 256

Yearly intake in kg. 176 264

Average daily intake in litres 214

Average daily intake in kg. 220

Source: United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)

Reliance on imported dairy products

Local dairy production satisfies only 21% of current demand. Vietnam has to import 79%

of its dairy consumption. The government encourages expansion of cow farms and dairy

production capacity. Vietnam targets to have 400,000 dairy cows and a self-sufficiency

rate of 39% in FY20. Even if Vietnam can achieve this ambitious plan, the dairy industry

still has to rely on imported dairy. Because of the gap between demand and supply, the

market can absorb continuously increasing selling prices and still grow at double-digit

rates.

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Figure 5: Vietnam milk production

Source: FAPRI

Figure 6: Vietnam imported dairy product value

Source: GSO, FAPRI

Highly concentrated market

Vinamilk and Friesland account for 64% of total market share. The remainder is shared by

a number of small players. Vinamilk dominates most markets such as yogurt, condensed

milk and liquid milk. Imported/foreigner brands are leading the powdered milk market

segment.

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Both Vinamilk and Friesland have products in all of product lines from UHT milk to

powdered milk. Others try to penetrate drinking milk segment, but still their market share is

less than 5% each.

Dairy companies locate their factories mostly to supply for their big northern and southern

market. Vinamilk is the only one that has factories located in central part of Vietnam.

Figure 7: Vietnam dairy market share FY10

Source: EMI & VCSC collected

Figure 8: Dairy companies and their product lines

UHT Pasteurize Yogurt CondensedPowdered

Milk

Vinamilk X X X X X

Friesland X X X X X

Abbott X

Nestle XMead Johnson X

Dumex X

Hanoi Milk X X X

IDP X X X X

Moc Chau X X X

Long Thanh X X X

TH Milk X X X

Source: EMI & VCSC collected

Market Outlook

With strong historical growth rate and still an imbalance between supply and demand, the

market is expected to show a high growth ratio (revenues CAGR of 17% for FY06-FY11).

According to EMI forecast, dairy consumption could achieve a CAGR of 6.5% in term of

volume for the period from FY11-FY16.

VNM39%

Friesland25%

Others36%

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Figure 9: Vietnam dairy market size

Source: EMI & VCSC estimated

According to the most recent population survey, more than one-fifth of the population of

87mn is living in cities like Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh, Da Nang. The fact is one in seven is now

middle class while one in five living in the cities. This is boosting the demand for dairy

products, which is perceived as a healthy and nutritious choice.

Figure 10: Vietnam GDP per capital & Income growth rate

Source: BMI, GSO

As the living standard is increasing since Doi Moi, the economy has significant changed.

GDP per capital is more than triple from US$ 351 in FY00 to US$1,156 in FY10

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Vietnams two children policy, which led to more spending on kids, also affects the

consumption of dairy product. All of these factors will keep the industry on its strong

growth path.

Market share Outlook

Vinamilk dominates the yogurt and condensed milk market, with a market share in FY11 of71% and 88% respectively. We do not expect this will change in the medium future.

Condensed milk has a low margin (est. gross margin of 13%), low growth rate (volume

growth rate from 2-3%) and requires significant capital to manufacture. Friesland seems to

have given up on this product line and small players find it not attractive enough to enter.

Vinamilk with its 88% market has been the leader for this market.

Yogurt involves heavy investment in coolers and chilled transportation vehicles, which will

create a barrier for new entry. With 178,000 sales points and yogurt factories in the north,

south and central of Vietnam, Vinamilk has an advantage for this product, and guarantees

its dominant market share.

The most profitable product line, powdered milk, is lead by Abbot Vietnam with the market

share of 23.8% in FY10, followed by Vinamilk with 18.5%. Foreign companies still

dominate the market, accounting for a 61.4% market share. Vietnamese perception on

imported/foreigner brand is the key reason for the popularity of foreign brands. Vinamilk

targets to increase market share by significantly lower price (lower by 10-30% compare to

international brands) and gradually education of customersview by advertisement,

conventions and events. Vinamilk is expecting to gain its target of 35% market share, but

its appears it will takes much longer or a different strategy to change customersview.

Figure 11: FY10 Liquid milk market share

Source: EMI

Figure 12: FY10 Powdered milk market share

Source: EMI

Vinamilk41%

Freisland25%Nestle Vietnam

7%

Hanoi Milk5%

Mead Johnson3%

Fonterra3%

F&N Vietnam2%Others16%

Abbott24%

VNM19%

MeadJohnson

14%

Freisland14%

Nestle9%

Others20%

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Operations

Vinamilk achieved strong revenue growth rate for the past period, CAGR for FY05-FY11 is

25%. Total revenues for FY11 reached US$1 bn. Despite the slow-down, melamine crisis,

and economic downturn, Vinamilk still achieved impressive business results.

Gross and net margin have remained at double-digits since listing in FY06. The gross

margin had been improving from an average of 24.5% for FY05-FY07 to 32.9% for the

period FY08-FY11. Good management and effective inventory policy have kept VNMs

price very competitive.

Over 200 products to satisfy difference classes of income

Vinamilk possess extensive products under 5 brand names: Vinamilk (liquid milk, yogurt,

ice cream), Vfresh (fruit juice and soy milk), Dielac (powdered milk), Ridielac (nutrition

powdered) and condensed milk and aiming for higher margin value-added products.

Due to health concern, we notice Vinamilk is shifting to more value added products. For

yogurt, Vinamilk came up with Collagen added product, Liquid milk with ADM andpowdered milk with product with adding more nutrition ingredient. VNM has the products

for all income levels with broad packaging products size and flavours.

Figure 13: Vinamilk revenue by segments

Source: Vinamilk

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Figure 14: Vinamilk revenue by products

Source: Vinamilk

Production capacity

Capacity increased steadily with a CAGR of 19.5% for FY07-FY12, total capacity of 1.1mn

tons in FY12 and expect to increase to 1.6mn tons by FY13. In FY11, capacity grew by

38.5% with the operation of its Tien Son factory (with condensed milk, yogurt and liquid

milk). The capacity increased to 1.1mn tons when the Danang factory start to operate in

FY12, adding to the supply of liquid milk and yogurt into Vietnam central market. With

Danang factory, Vinamilk is the first one to have a factory in this part. With a factory in this

area, Vinamilk will make distribution more efficient and strengthen Vinamilk position in

raising cities in central region.

Historically, Vinamilk utilisation rate remained at an average of 70%. With significant

growth of capacity recently, we expect the utilisation rate will be below 60% level and

slowly increase. At the capacity of 1.6mn tons, it will be good enough for Vinamilk in 5

years term.

Figure 15: Vinamilk production capacity

Source: VCSC estimates

29% 24% 21% 18%

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Beverage & others

Yoghurt

Powder milk

Liquid milk

Condensed milk

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Expense analysis

Branding expense reached VND1,232bn in FY11, CAGR is 18.6% for the period FY09-

FY11. In term percentage of net revenue, in FY09, branding expense was 8.2%, dropped

to 6.3% in FY10, and remained stable of 5.7% for FY11 and 9MFY12. Compared with the

growth rate of net revenue for the same period, Vinamilk expenses has been effectivewhen it brought the CAGR for this period to 42.7%. Without any significant change in

advertisement program, we believe this ratio will remain stable.

Direct cost for selling expenses (advertisement, promotion and commission) accounts

70.3% of the total selling expense in FY09 and remain stable at 68% in FY11 and FY12.

Figure 16: Vinamilk branding expenses

Source: VCSC Vinamilk

Figure 17: Vinamilk selling expenses by category

Source: VCSC Vinamilk

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Distribution networksVinamilk has the most extensive nationwide distribution network, which cover all 64

provinces. In FY11, the distribution network includes 232 distributors and 178,000 sale

outlets throughout the country (growth of 27% compare to FY10). Vinamilk continue to

expand and strengthen this network to be able to distribute directly to customer especially

in rural area where more than 70% of the population is. Rural area played a key role forthe sharp sale increase in recent years. Vinamilk will make the network more efficient by

building a factory in Danang and Thanh Hoa to strengthen its position in the central part of

Vietnam (none of the competitors have factory in this area).

Vinamilk use both modern and traditional distribution channel. Modern channel is to take

advantage of the increasing urbanization. However, traditional distribution (mom & pop

shops) channel is vital as it accounts for 80% of Vinamilk total sales.

Figure 18: Vinamilk revenue break down by distribution channels

Source: Vinamilk

Figure 19: Vinamilk sale points

Source: Vinamilk

Traditionchannel

80%

Modernchannel

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Cost driven by imported powdered milk and local milk purchase priceRaw material (powdered milk, local milk price, sugar and so on) fluctuates from 62% to

73% of the COGs, followed by the packaging cost, which account around for 20% and the

rest is production cost and depreciation cost.

Vinamilk is buying 60% of the total fresh milk produced by local farmers. Vinamilk bought118 mn litres in FY08 and increased to 144 mn litres in FY11. Due to inflation and

increasing production cost from local farm, Vinamilk increased it purchase price each year,

purchase milk price grow at CAGR of 9.4% for FY08-FY12.

Figure 20: Local fresh milk purchase & value

Source: Vinamilk Annual Report

Figure 21: Local fresh milk purchase price

Source: USDA

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Revenue & Profit Drivers

VNM achieved revenue growth rate at CAGR of 25% for the period from FY05-FY11. Of

this, powdered milk, liquid milk and yogurt had the strongest growth rate, achieving a

CAGR of 42%, 37% and 38% over the same period respectively. VNM has been focusing

more on premium products with better growth rate and better margin. Contribution ofliquid, powdered and yogurt become more important for Vinamilk to sustain growth in

revenue and profit.

Figure 22: Vinamilk revenue forecast by products

Sales (VND bn) FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E

Condensed milk 3,243 3,945 4,433 4,980 5,595 6,286 7,062

Liquid milk 5,049 7,463 9,183 11,496 14,515 18,481 23,730

Powdered milk 4,526 6,160 7,700 9,625 12,032 14,438 17,326

Yogurt 2,591 3,517 4,516 5,315 6,256 7,364 8,667

Others 343 542 609 684 769 864 970

Total 15,753 21,627 26,441 32,101 39,166 47,433 57,756

Source: VCSC forecast

Condensed milk has the lowest profit margin. We estimate the gross margin is 13%, in

which more than 80% of the COGs is raw materials. Volatility in raw material prices will

affect this product line the most. Liquid milk and yogurt have the gross margin of 35% and

44% respectively. The premium powdered segment has the highest margin of 61%;

however, foreigners dominate this segment. Vinamilk products are in the low-end to

middle-end. We estimate the gross margin for powdered milk is 38%. Those are the three

product lines that Vinamilk focuses on to grow revenues and profits.

Figure 23: Vinamilk gross margin by products

Source: VCSC estimate FY12

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Liquid milkOn average, liquid milk accounted for 31% of revenue for the past 4 years, reaching 35%

in FY11. Vinamilk is the market leader in this segment with a 40.9% of market share. For

the near term, liquid milk is still the most important driver for revenues and profits.

With the base of UHT milk, in FY11, Vinamilk introduced pasteurized milk and ADM addedmilk to penetrate increasing demand for more nutrition & fresh milk. The ADM, which

come in 110 & 180 ml, targets children of hectic families. Demanding for convenience is

the key reasons for recent trend of switching from powdered GUM to read-to-drink white

and flavoured milk. With a historical CAGR for FY06-FY10 of 15.8% and expected CAGR

for FY11-FY15 of 13.1%, liquid milk remains a key growth and profit contributor. With rich

and pioneering products, Vinamilk will grow strong in this segment.

Plain white milk and flavoured milk still dominate the market. However, we do not see

much choice for customers in term of vitamin added products and low fat milk yet. Big

cities account for more than 70% of milk consumption. We had seen Vinamilk launched

ADM added liquid milk; this could be the beginning for a new trend of product series. We

believe VNM could still grow more than 15% in term of volume within this segment.

Figure 24: Vietnam liquid milk market size

Source: EMI

Powdered milk

This is the most attractive segment with high profit margin and strong near-term growth.

Vinamilk has 18.5% of market share in FY10 and contributed an average of 28% of total

revenue in FY08-FY11. Vinamilk targeted a 35% market share in FY11, but failed. The

significant high birth rate in FY12 (golden dragon year) will boost the growth rate in the

near future. CAGR for FY06-FY10 was 18.5%. According to EMI forecast, volume CAGR

for FY11-FY16 is 6.5%, however we expect growth rate will be higher compare to EMI

forecast from the current baby boom.

Parent wants the best products for their newborn child. Vietnameses perspective of

imported/ foreigner brand is superior and they are willing to pay higher price for it.

Vinamilks strategy of keeping a competitive price (average 10-30% lower compare to

international brand) and promoting the creditability of local brand with the campaign

Vietnamese use Vietnamese good, we expect Vinamilk will slowly increase its market

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share by 1% each year. Most of the market share will come from the low-end to middle-

end range of products.

Figure 25: Vietnam powdered milk market size

Source: EMI

Yogurt milkThe market grew at CAGR of 7% for FY06-FY11, market size reached VND4tn in FY11.

Vinamilk dominates the market with 71% market share (92% market share of spoonableyogurt). With more value added products (pre/pro-biotic, collagen product), good brand

name, and actively marketing strategy, segment s sale achieved average growth rate of

53% for FY09-FY11.

We believe Vinamilk will stay dominant in this market with its current strategy. We expect

revenue growth will remain at 18% for medium term.

Condensed MilkVinamilks first product line, condensed milk had been the most contributor for VNM in

term of revenue and profit in the past. With long shelf-life and ease to use with boiling

water, it had been widely used as a nutrition food in the past and is now used in coffee/

juice sweetener in the local market. Those are the catalyst for condensed milk to grow(CAGR for FY05-FY11 is 18%). VNM has 88% of this market, and we expect the growth

rate will be lower due to switching to liquid milk usage. Condensed milk s revenue

contribution dropped from 28% in FY05 to 18% in FY11, and we expect this trend to

continue in VNM revenue proportion.

Other F&BThe segment is driven by fruit juice and soya milk. Currently, this segment is less

important in terms of revenue and profit; it contributes 1.6% in FY11 revenue. With 22%

market share in the beverage industry, we expect stronger growth rate for the coming

years. However due to the competitive landscape, the margin is low and the market size is

small (Market size is VND950 bn for FY11). To be conservative, we assume the volumegrowth rate is 12% for next 5 years.

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Dividend outlook

Historically, VNM has maintained a dividend payout ratio from 30-40%. With current and

future strong cash flow, we believe VNM could remain the dividend per share as VND

3,000 or even increase it in the future.

Figure 26: Dividend forecast

Unit: VND FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E

EPS (Basic) 1,585 3,010 4,564 5,288 6,236 7,249 8,882 10,641

Dividend 650 993 1,780 1,692 1,995 3,000 3,000 3,000

Payout ratio 41% 33% 39% 32% 32% 41% 34% 28%Source: VCSC forecast

With the current price, the dividend yield is 3.5%, but with rich operation cash flow,

Vinamilk could increase future dividend if the management see fit.

Capital spending

Expected capital spending for FY12 is VND4.5tn, of which 65% is to expand productioncapacity especially in drinking milk, yogurt and powdered milk. In August FY12, the

Danang factory was put in operation, bring an addition 77,000 tons of liquid milk and

26,000 tons of yogurt. We expect all of its under-construction factory to be operated in

FY13, bringing the total production capacity to 1.67mn tons.

Figure 27: Vinamilk CAPEX plan

CAPEXTotalCost

DisburseFY11

DisburseFY12

DisburseFY13-16

Completedate

Capacity(tonnes)

Description

(VND bn) (VND bn) (VND bn) (VND bn)

Vietnam Milk Factory 2,349 415 1,651 283 2013

444K-

800K Liquid milk

Dielac 2 Factory 1,906 569 958 379 2013 54KPowdered milk,nutrition cereal

Danang Milk 421 204 176 41 2012 104K Liquid milk, Yogurt

Lam Son Dairy 253 47 181 25 2013 83.9K Liquid milk, Yogurt

Vietnam Dairy Cow 2,006 36 646 1,324 2016 - Up to 28K cows

Supply chain upgrade 2,642 1,225 689 728 2016 - Logistics, vehicles

Branch Office,Warehouse 598 75 233 290 2016 -

Warehouses,office building

Total 10,175 2,571 4,534 3,070

Source: Vinamilk, VCSC

Capex for the period from FY13-FY16 is VND3tn, so VNM will spend VND871bn annually

for the next 5 years. Most of the capital will be used for vertical investment, which improve

the self-sufficient rate of raw material.

Vinamilk focuses on improving efficiency and minimizing risks in long-run. Vietnam Dairy

cow will help Vinamilk to be proactive for liquid milk requirement. Its investment in New

Zealand based powdered milk producer (VNM bought 19.3% Miraka stake) will help on

stabilizing the import material and improve its brand name in powdered milk (Vietnamese

foreign brand name perspective). If Vinamilk could fulfil its target of having 28,000

(currently Vinamilk has 9,500 cow heads) cows by FY16, it could produce up to 80,000tonnes of fresh milk and help Vinamilk to self-efficient 25% of fresh milk demand.

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Investment on supply chain and warehouse also help Vinamilks distribution network,

which is its advantage, to improving information and product flow from Vinamilk to its sale

points. In order to maintain its leading position and manage increasing distribution

network, Vinamilk recognizes its role and continues its investment.

ValuationWe use a combination of P/E, P/B and Discounted Cash Flow methods to come up with

the target price. With stable cash flow and transparent CAPEX, we strongly rely on DCF.

We use the proportion of 15%, 15% and 70% respectively from above three methods. Our

12 months target price is VND106,000 per share.

DCF valuation

Our fair valuation for VNM by using DCF method is VND102,970 for FY12E per share for

core business based on WACC of 15.5% for FY12. We use a terminal growth rate of 3%

and 25% tax rate. Rolling our valuation forward to FY14E, per share value rise to

VND116,298, which implies a rise in valuation of 37.6% over a two year time horizon.

Figure 28: DCF Assumption

DCF Assumption FY12 FY13 FY14

Risk Free Rate 10% 10% 9.8%

Risk Premium 8% 8% 7.8%

Cost of Equity 20% 18% 16.0%

Cost of Debt 20% 18% 16%

FCFF 82,142 84,763 97,013

Per share value 102,970 101,613 116,298


P/E and P/BAt the current price of VND 84,500, VNM is trading at PER of 16x and P/B of 5.4x.

Forward PER and PBR for FY12 are 14x and 4.4x respectively. We use target PER and

PBR for Vinamilk at 16x and 4.5x accordingly.

Figure 29: Target price

MultipleTarget

Multiple(x)FY12E FY13E FY14E

EPS - Adjusted P/E @ 16x 99,769 115,991 142,118

Book value P/B @ 4.5x 86,369 120,492 142,462

DCF target price 102,970 101,613 116,298

Target price 100,000 106,000 124,000

Upside 130,000 18% 25% 47%


Since listing in FY06, VNM traded in a PER range of 8x-30x. In term of PBR the lowest is

2.9x and the highest of 8.8x. We believe it is reasonable for VNM to trade on a PER of 16x

and PBR of 4.5x, which is the long-term average. The target price makes sense to

recognize VNM forward growth potential.

Figure 30: EPS Growth

CAGR EPS Growth FY14E/11 FY15E/12 FY15E/13 Average

EPS reported (1.4%) 4.4% 21.7% 8.2%

EPS - Adjusted 19% 20% 22% 20%


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Comparison with peers

Due to the size and the uniqueness of Vinamilk, we choose its peers as in the F& B sector

within Asia Pacific region. Vinamilk is currently trading at PER of 13.8x, which is lower

compare with the average of 17.2x of its peers, P/B is higher compare to average of 2.8x.

However, in term of ROE of 40.8%, ROA of 33.2% and current dividend yield 3.1%,Vinamilk is almost twice of the peers average. Strong growth potential, high profit margin

and low relative comparison makes VNM look attractive within the group.

Figure 31: Peer comparables

Index Short NameMarket Cap(USD mn)

Div.Yield

(%)P/E P/B

ROE(%)

ROA(%)

1 UNI-PRESIDENT 8,411 1.8 21.2 3.2 15.4 3.5

2 CHAROEN POK FOOD 8,323 3.6 11.0 2.6 26.2 9.6

3 THAI BEVERAGE 8,214 3.6 15.9 3.9 26.3 10.8

4 LUZHOU LAOJIAO-A 7,455 4.2 12.0 5.6 53.1 34.1

5 KUALA LUMPUR KEP 7,240 3.1 19.9 3.1 17.1 10.8

6 CHAROEN POK INDO 5,445 1.3 18.3 6.7 42.3 29.5

7 SHANXI XINGHUA-A 5,147 0.7 24.3 9.2 44.7 27.0

8 INNER MONG YIL-A 5,131 1.2 18.1 4.6 27.8 8.9

9 INDOFOOD SUKSES 5,103 3.1 14.9 2.4 16.9 6.0

10 CHINA MENGNIU DA 4,997 1.1 21.5 2.6 12.9 7.2

11 PPB GROUP BERHAD 4,646 1.7 19.0 1.0 5.3 4.9

12 NISSIN FOODS HOL 4,585 2.4 24.8 1.2 5.0 3.5

13 INDOFOOD CBP SUK 4,417 2.3 20.4 3.9 20.4 13.5

14 UNIVERSAL ROBINA 4,198 1.9 20.3 3.4 12.7 7.8

15 YANTAI CHANGYU-B 4,188 3.6 12.0 4.0 37.1 25.9

16 CJ CHEIL 3,967 0.5 15.1 1.5 11.1 3.5

17 VIET NAM DAIRY P 3,438 3.1 13.8 5.1 40.8 33.2

18 NIPPON MEAT PACK 3,313 1.4 23.6 0.9 3.8 1.8

19 NISSHIN SEIFUN 3,211 1.9 19.2 0.9 4.7 3.3

20 ASTRA AGRO LEST 3,089 4.9 13.4 3.6 27.9 19.6

21 OLAM INTERNATION 3,049 2.6 10.2 1.1 11.7 2.8

22 TOYO SUISAN KAI 2,998 1.8 13.1 1.3 10.0 7.1

23 KIKKOMAN CORP 2,979 1.3 25.0 1.5 6.0 3.1

24 CHINA AGRI-INDUS 2,852 1.5 14.1 0.8 5.9 1.7

25 FIRST RESOURCES 2,656 1.8 10.5 2.5 25.7 15.1

26 THAI UNION FROZE 2,626 2.4 13.1 2.2 18.8 6.5

27 YAMAZAKI BAKING 2,581 1.7 17.4 0.9 5.2 1.9

28 BEIJING DABEIN-A 2,446 0.8 23.8 3.9 17.5 12.9

29 KEWPIE 2,262 1.6 14.3 1.1 7.8 4.430 FRASER & NEAVE 2,191 3.6 24.2 4.3 17.6 10.8

31 GRAINCORP LTD-A 2,111 3.9 11.6 1.6 14.1 7.5

32 GENTING PLANTATI 2,089 1.2 18.0 1.9 11.2 8.7

33 BEIJING YAN-A 2,050 2.1 15.1 1.3 9.0 4.8

34 ANHUI GUJINGD-B 2,028 1.4 10.8 2.5 26.1 17.4

35 SMART TBK 2,027 2.9 10.4 2.3 24.4 12.5

36 CP POKPHAND CO L 2,017 4.1 13.6 2.5 26.5 13.2

37 KAGOME 2,007 1.1 23.8 1.7 7.5 4.1

38 HITE JINRO CO 1,929 4.3 21.1 1.4 6.8 2.8

39 LOTTE CONFECTION 1,918 0.3 21.1 0.8 3.8 2.5

40 BIOSTIME INTERNA 1,896 2.0 19.4 6.1 32.9 25.6

41 GUANGDONG HAID-A 1,842 0.8 25.5 4.0 16.6 8.8

Average 3,733 2.2 17.4 2.8 18.5 10.7

Source: Bloomberg

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Quarterly Results Summary

Profit & Loss by Quarter

VND billion

2012 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 YTDRevenues 5,876 7,011 6,6199 6,935 26,441

Gross profit 1,800 2,422 2,342 2,024 8,587

GP margin (%) 31% 35% 35% 29% 32%

Operating profit 1,268 1,662 1,600 1,289 5,818

OP margin (%) 22% 24% 24% 19% 22%

Net profit 1,270 1,506 1,395 1,030 5,202

Net profit margin (%) 22% 21% 21% 15% 20%

2011 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 YTD

Revenues 4,535 5,420 5,697 5,975 21,627

Gross profit 1,509 1,702 1,673 1,704 6,588

GP margin (%) 33% 31% 29% 29% 30%

Operating profit 1,078 1,169 1,049 1,021 4,317

OP margin (%) 24% 22% 18% 17% 20%

Net profit 1,006 1,107 1,062 1,042 4,218

Net profit margin (%) 22% 20% 19% 17% 20%

2012 vs. 2011 1Q YoY % 2Q YoY % 3Q YoY % 4Q YoY % YoY %

Revenues 30% 29% 16% 16% 22%

Gross profit 19% 42% 40% 19% 30%

Operating profit 18% 42% 53% 26% 35%

Net profit 26% 36% 31% -1% 23%

Source: Vinamilk financial statements

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Financial StatementsUnits in VND billion

Income statement FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E Balance sheet FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E

Revenue 21,627 26,441 32,101 39,166 47,433 Assets

- Cost of goods sold

-

15,039

-

17,854

-

22,132

-

26,819

-

32,220 + Cash & equivalent 3,157 2,073 7,707 11,042 15,765

Gross profit 6,588 8,587 9,968 12,347 15,213 + Short-tm investments 736 996 1,162 1,325 1,485

- Sales & marketing -1,812 -2,283 -2,578 -3,071 -3,588 + Accounts receivable 1,141 1,521 1,847 2,253 2,729

- General & admin -459 -485 -520 -558 -601 + Inventories 3,272 4,011 5,033 6,172 7,503

Operating profit 4,317 5,818 6,870 8,718 11,025 + Other current assets 1,161 1,278 1,278 1,278 1,278

- Forex gains/(losses) 28 28 28 28 28 Total current assets 9,468 9,878 17,026 22,070 28,760

- Net non-op gains 650 392 450 555 603 + Gross fixed assets 6,943 11,298 12,109 12,920 13,731

EBIT 4,994 6,238 7,348 9,301 11,656 - Accum. depreciation -1,808 -2,281 -3,111 -3,947 -4,790

- Interest expense -15 0 0 0 0 + Net fixed assets 5,135 9,016 8,997 8,972 8,941

EBT 4,979 6,238 7,348 9,301 11,656 + LT investments 663 487 506 524 542

- Income tax expense -761 -1,037 -1,301 -1,891 -2,779 + Other long-tm assets 316 107 107 107 107

Profit after tax 4,218 5,202 6,047 7,409 8,877 Total long-term assets 6,115 9,611 9,610 9,603 9,590

- Minority interests0 0 0 0 0

Total Assets15,583 19,490 26,636 31,673 38,349

Net income to SH 4,218 5,202 6,047 7,409 8,877 Debt

EPS (basic VND) 9,279 9,353 8,699 8,882 10,641 + Accounts payable 1,831 1,957 2,486 3,086 3,796

EBITDA 5,393 6,711 8,178 10,137 12,498 + Short-term debt 0 0 0 0 0

Depreciation -399 -473 -830 -836 -842 + Other short-term debt 1,116 1,364 1,656 2,020 2,447

Revenue growth % 37.3 22.3 21.4 22.0 21.1 Current liabilities 2,947 3,320 4,142 5,106 6,242

Op profit growth % 29.0 34.8 18.1 26.9 26.5 + Long-term debt 0 0 0 0 0

EBIT growth % 17.3 24.9 17.8 26.6 25.3 + Other long-term debt 159 159 159 159 159

EPS growth % -9.6 0.8 -7.0 2.1 19.8 Total LT debt 159 159 159 159 159

Profitability ratios Equity

Gross margin % 30.5 32.5 31.1 31.5 32.1 + Preferred equity 0 0 0 0 0

NPAT margin % 19.5 19.7 18.8 18.9 18.7 + Addtl paid in capital 1,277 1,277 1,277 1,277 1,277

ROE Dupont % 41.3 36.5 31.5 30.4 30.4 + Share capital 5,561 5,561 8,342 8,342 8,342

ROA Dupont % 32.0 29.7 26.2 25.4 25.4 + Retained earnings 5,639 9,172 12,717 16,790 22,330

* EBIT Margin % 23.1 23.6 22.9 23.7 24.6 + Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0

* Tax burden % 84.7 83.4 82.3 79.7 76.2 Total equity 12,477 16,010 22,336 26,408 31,948

* Interest burden % 99.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Total debt & equity 15,583 19,490 26,637 31,674 38,350

* Asset turnover 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.4 Cash flow

Leverage ratio 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Beginning cash 613 3,157 2,073 7,707 11,042

ROIC 40.2 36.5 31.5 30.4 30.4 Net Income 4,218 5,202 6,047 7,409 8,877

Efficiency ratios + Depreciation 411 473 830 836 842

Days inventory on hand 68.2 74.5 74.6 76.2 77.5 + Other non-cash adj. -293 0 0 0 0

Days AR outstanding 14.6 18.4 19.1 19.1 19.2 + in non-cash -1,452 -861 -526 -581 -671

Days AP outstanding 35.4 38.7 36.6 37.9 39.0 Cash from operations 2,884 4,813 6,351 7,664 9,048

Cash conversion cycle 47.4 54.1 57.1 57.4 57.7 + Disposal fixed assets 47 0 0 0 0

Inventory turnover 5.3 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 + Capex -1,767 -4,354 -811 -811 -811Liquidity/Solvency + in investments 0 0 0 0 0

Current ratio 3.21 2.97 4.11 4.32 4.61 + Other investments 1,254 125 -184 -181 -178

Quick ratio 2.10 1.77 2.90 3.11 3.41 Cash from investing -467 -4,229 -995 -992 -989

Cash ratio 1.07 0.62 1.86 2.16 2.53 + Dividends paid -741 -1,668 -2,503 -3,337 -3,337

Debt/assets % 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 + in capital 1,455 0 0 0 0

Debt/capital % 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 + in ST debt -568 0 0 0 0

Debt/equity % 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 + in LT debt 0 0 0 0 0

ST debt/equity % 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 + Other financing act. 0 0 0 0 0

LT debt/equity % 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cash from financing 126 -1,668 278 -3,337 -3,337

Interest coverage ratio 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Net changes in cash 2,543 -1,084 5,634 3,336 4,723

Ending cash 3,157 2,073 7,707 11,042 15,765

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Analyst Certification

I, Anh Nguyen, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about

the subject securities or issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or

indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The equity research

analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive compensation based upon various factors,

including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm revenues,which include revenues from, among other business units, Institutional Equities and Investment Banking.

VCSC Rating System and Valuation Methodology

Absolute performance, long term (fundamental) rating key: The recommendation is based on implied

absolute upside/downside for the stock from the target price, defined as (target price current price)/current

price, and is not related to market performance. This structure applies from 1 November 2010.

Equity rating key Definition

BUY If the target price is 20% higher than the market price

ADD If the target price is 10-20% higher than the market price

HOLD If the target price is 10% below or 10% above the market price

REDUCE If the target price is 10-20% lower than the market price

SELL If the target price is 20% lower than the market price

NOT RATED The company is or may be covered by the Research Department but no rating or

target price is assigned either voluntarily or to comply with applicable regulation

and/or firm policies in certain circumstances, including when VCSC is acting in an

advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company.

RATING SUSPENDED The investment rating and target price for this stock have been suspended as there is

not a sufficient fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or target. The

previous investment rating and target price, if any, are no longer in effect for this

stock.

Unless otherwise specified, these performance parameters only reflect capital appreciation and are set with a 12-

month horizon. Future price volatility may cause temporary mismatch between upside/downside for a stock

based on market price and the formal recommendation, thus these performance parameters should be

interpreted flexibly.Small Cap Research: VCSC Research covers companies with a market capitalisation of up to USD50mn,

inclusively. Clients should note that coverage may not be consistent and that VCSC may drop coverage of small

caps at any time without notice.

Target price:In most cases, the target price will equal the analyst's assessment of the current fair value of the

stock. The target price is the level the stock should currently trade at if the market were to accept the analyst's

view of the stock, provided the necessary catalysts were in place to effect this change in perception within the

performance horizon. However, if the analyst doesn't think the market will reassess the stock over the specified

time horizon due to a lack of events or catalysts, then the target price may differ from fair value. In most cases,

therefore, our recommendation is an assessment of the mismatch between current market price and our

assessment of current fair value.

Valuation Methodology:To derive the target price, the analyst may use different valuation methods, including,

but not limited to, discounted free cash-flow and comparative analysis. The selection of methods depends on the

industry, the company, the nature of the stock and other circumstances. Company valuations are based on a

single or a combination of one of the following valuation methods: 1) Multiple-based models (P/E, P/cash flow,

EV/sales, EV/EBIT, EV/EBITA, EV/EBITDA), peer-group comparisons, and historical valuation approaches; 2)

Discount models (DCF, DVMA, DDM); 3) Break-up value approaches or asset-based evaluation methods;

and 4) Economic profit approaches (Residual Income, EVA). Valuation models are dependent on

macroeconomic factors, such as GDP growth, interest rates, exchange rates, raw materials, on other

assumptions about the economy, as well as risks inherent to the company under review. Furthermore, market

sentiment may affect the valuation of companies. Valuations are also based on expectations that might change

rapidly and without notice, depending on developments specific to individual industries.

Risks: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Foreign currency rates of exchange may

adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related instrument mentioned in this report. For

investment advice, trade execution or other enquiries, clients should contact their local sales representative.

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Contacts

Head office

Bitexco 15th

Floor, 2 Hai Trieu, District 1, HCMC

+84 8 3914 3588

Transaction office136 Ham Nghi, District 1, HCMC

+84 8 3914 3588

Hanoi branch

109 Tran Hung Dao, Hoan Kiem District, Hanoi

+84 4 6262 6999

Transaction office236 - 238 Nguyen Cong Tru, District 1, HCMC

+84 8 3914 3588

Research

Head of Research

Robert Zielinski, ext [email protected]

Senior Manager, Mr.Tu Vu, ext 105

Manager,Ms. Phuong Ton, ext 146

Senior Analyst, Ms. Hoa Dinh, ext 140

Senior Analyst, Mr. Huy Nguyen, ext 139

Senior Analyst,Mr. The Anh Nguyen, ext 194

Research Team

+84 8 3914 [email protected]

Analyst, Ms. LyVu, ext 147

Analyst, Mr. VietVu, ext 143

Analyst, Ms. Duong Pham, ext 130

Analyst, Ms. Trang Nguyen, ext 116

Macro Analyst, Mr. PhongNguyen, ext 120Technical Analyst, Mr. MinhNguyen, ext 142

Institutional Sales & Brokerage& Foreign Individuals

Head of Institutional Sales

Michel Tosto, M.Sc.+84 8 3914 3588, ext [email protected]

Vietnamese Sales

Nguyen Quoc Dung+84 8 3914 3588, ext [email protected]

Retail & Corporate Sales & Brokerage

Ho Chi Minh City

Quynh Chau+84 8 3914 3588, ext [email protected]

Hanoi

Quang Nguyen+84 4 6262 6999, ext [email protected]

Disclaimer

Copyright 2012 Viet Capital Securities Company. All rights reserved. This report has been prepared on the basis

of information believed to be reliable at the time of publication. VCSC makes no representation or warranty

regarding the completeness and accuracy of such information. Opinions, estimates and projection expressed in

this report represent the current views of the author at the date of publication only. They do not necessarily

reflect the opinions of VCSC and are subject to change without notice. This report is provided, for information

purposes only, to institutional investor and retail clients of VCSC, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation

to buy or sell any securities discussed herein in any jurisdiction. Investors must make their investment decisions

based upon independent advice subject to their particular financial situation and investment objectives. This

report may not be copied, reproduced, published or redistributed by any person for any purpose without the

written permission of an authorized representative of VCSC. Please cite sources when quoting.

History of RecommendationDate Recommendation Closing price Target price

19 Dec 2012 Buy 84,500 106,000
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]

vnm-20121219-buy

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