STUDENT- PGDMINSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES, NOIDA

Prepared by –1.RAVISH ROSHAN (atulravish@gmail.com),9968009808 (m

ail ur comm

ents, please)

Do you want to take advantage of new

opportunity in the gas market

Viavera is ideal partner

………….Network operator Lattice and German multi-utility RWE have teamed up to offer a

service to traders, gas shippers and network owners seeking to shift gas around Europe.

The two companies spend 6 million pound on a joint venture named Viavera. RWE had 60 per

cent share...

Products of the viavera

• Gas properties transmitter.

• Live pipeline intervention.

• Shared flue inspection.

• Tight-fit pipe lining system.

• SUCESSFUL PROJECTS OF VIAVERA

Sample project (I): entry-exit systems for gas network utilisation

• The creation and organisation of entry-exit systems is intended to ensure greater simplification and transparency of network utilisation in the gas market. As part of a consulting project, they developed an entry-exit third party access model together with a network operator, taking into account the legal specifications and regulations valid at the time. Existing model approaches were integrated into the consulting process as well

Sample project (II): process simulation for cost-effective supply in third party

networks

• As part of a simulation project, they identified, implemented and optimised a customer’s processes necessary for the supplying of portfolios in third party networks. Using realistic simulations, it was possible to test all processes before encountering the risks involved in an actual delivery.

Sample project (III): supply cost optimisation through diverse gas suppliers and

active portfolio management

• Various approaches can be taken in the diversifying and optimising of gas supplies. Antitrust law dictates that the traditional supplier should be granted a duty-free allowance of 20%. The existing demands of the company and the contractual restrictions of the supplier can be analysed and evaluated to see whether or not this is actually possible. These findings and the analysis of the procurement portfolio were implemented to develop approaches for optimising contract specifications.

Sample project (IV): optimisation and further development of short-

term forecasts

• Due to the optimised procurement and restrictive flexibility regulations within various third party access regimes, more and more companies must depend on a reliable sales forecast for their supply area. The aim of this project was to further increase the quality of those forecasts. Necessary steps to achieve this goal included the analysis of input data, optimisation of the forecast method and model maintenance all the way to evaluation of the forecast results.

Forecaster

Forecaster- predict your future energy demand

• Forecaster is a software product to predict future energy demand for transmission & distribution of gas supply/trading companies.

• Forecaster supports a wide range of modelling techniques that can be configured to generate highly accurate short, medium and longer term demand forecasts.

Cntd……..

• The models in forecaster capture the knowledge gained from over 30 years of forecasting in the UK gas market.

• Forecaster, coupled with Advantica’s modeling services can significantly reduce demand forecast errors, helping to improve decision making and business profitablity.

SYSTEMATIC STRUCTURE

PrognosisPerformance Tool

Forecaster GUI

ForecasterScheduler

Emailcollector

Weather data

Load data

Forecasterengine

Manualforecasts

Automatedforecasts

NominationTool

Forecast results

Effector data

Plausibility check

Model selection

System reports

Import

Export

Initiation

Export

Multiple licences

Forecaster module

Excel based Tools

External data

Control

PLF-file-import

PLF-file-export

Start ofnomination process

Forecasterdatabase

PrognosisPerformance Tool

Forecaster GUI

ForecasterScheduler

Emailcollector

Weather data

Load data

Forecasterengine

Manualforecasts

Automatedforecasts

NominationTool

Forecast results

Effector data

Plausibility check

Model selection

System reports

Import

Export

Initiation

Export

Multiple licences

Forecaster module

Excel based Tools

External data

Control

PLF-file-import

PLF-file-export

Start ofnomination process

Forecasterdatabase

Benefits

• Increased efficiency through automation of key tasks– Data import/export– Scheduled forecasts

• Improved demand forecast accuracy

• Reduced business risk and efficiency

SUGGESTION

• Enhanced training for viavera’s forecasting team

• Introduction of hourly day ahead weather forecasts to improve hourly demand forecasts

• Company should not play only a third party role but also a main role.

THANK YOU