visions of land use transitions in europe

Visions of Land UseVisions of Land Use Transitions in EuropeTransitions in Europe

Bas Pedroli, 24 May 2011, BrusselsBas Pedroli, 24 May 2011, Brussels ESPON workshop ESPON workshop Evidence on European Land UseEvidence on European Land Use

Bas Pedroli, 24 May 2011, BrusselsESPON workshop

Evidence on European Land Use

Visions of Land Use Transitions in Europe

www.volante-project.eu

VOLANTE

Objective: to provide European policy and land management with innovative

visions for future sustainable resource management and land use policy development under a range of environmental and management conditions across Europe

FP7 Collaborative project Duration 4.5 years as from November 2010 14 partners from 11 countries Project Coordination Alterra Wageningen UR





PROJECT PARTNERS

DLO Wageningen UR (Alterra-LEI) NL

Edinburgh University (UEDIN) UK

Institute of Social Ecology, University of Klagenfurt (UNIKLU) AT

Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam (IVM-VUA)

NL

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) DE

Copenhagen University (UCPH) DK

European Forest Institute (EFI) FI

Centre national de la recherche scientifique Grenoble (CNRS) FR

University of the Aegean (Aegean) GR

Bucharest University (UNIBUC) RO

Joint Research Centre Institute for Environment and Sustainability(JRC-IES)

Int.

Humboldt University Berlin (UBER) DE

National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University (NERI-AU)

DK

PROSPEX bvba BE





Starting points

The world is a changing environment. Land use transitions will occur in an ever increasing pace,

answering changing conditions of global market and society.

Sound management of energy sources, climate adaptation and mitigation, and changing urban-rural relationships will all have large, hardly predictable impacts on land use.

European Policy is therefore confronted with the need to develop visions of managing these land use transitions in a responsible way.





Approach

Land system science (GLP)

Three basic questions:

1. How can the analysis of empirical and historical land system

datasets provide insight into human-environment interactions?

2. How can integrated modelling and the ecosystem service concept

contribute to the testing of hypotheses about land system

functioning and decision making?

3. How can our current understanding of land systems inform the

choices that society has about future landscapes?





Module Processes

spat

ial s

cale

Global

European

National

Local

temporal scale

years decades centuries

Policy effects

Hotspots and syndroms

Local Decision Making

processes at local level

Long-term dynamics





Effects of policies on landscape





Syndrome Analysis

Satellite imagery & geodatabase of land use

intensity indicators

Geodatabase of land change determinants

European land use transition syndromes

(definitions & maps)

Change analyse

s

Spatial statistical modeling

Syndrome analyses (MCA and workshop)

Land conversion and intensification maps

Patterns of land use transition determinants

Input to WP-A and WP-V





Module Assessment: modelling approach





Discussion

can observed patterns of land use and land use change be used to infer the underlying processes?

in complex systems this principle breaks down! many development pathways arising from multiple drivers,

controlled by different processes lead to same land use outcome,

while similar processes may lead to different outcomes.

thus: not rely on observation alone, but use both empirical analysis and model simulation in combination to explore the how and why of land system change





Discussion (2)

models can be used to explore alternative development pathways, but models need to be grounded in, and able to reproduce, observation

the processes that models represent can only be informed by empirical evidence, yet observation alone cannot be used to explore the wide range of processes that occur in reality

therefore: coupling of different land system methods exploiting methodological strengths whilst overcoming their weaknesses





Conclusion

sustainable land use strategies need to be underpinned by understanding of how policy will affect land use and ecosystem services and the trade-offs and synergies between them

embedding policy makers and relevant stakeholders in the research process through a carefully planned strategy of knowledge exchange

Improving the potential to support the formulation of sound, evidence-based policies

Visions of Land Use Transitions in Europe: Enhancing sound land use management for the future

visions of land use transitions in europe

Documents

land management

european land usebas

land use policy development

european policy

europebas pedroli

landscapebas pedroli

eubas pedroli

eumodule processesbas