Visioning Future Landscapes of Climate Change: Cotswolds ‘Best and Worst’

Cotswolds AONB Landscape Change Seminar 12th June 2014

Dr Robert Berry

Countryside and Community Research Institute University of Gloucestershire

rberry@glos.ac.uk

Overview

• Brief series of visualisations to stimulate thinking and discussion around future landscape change

• Scenarios based on UKCP09 high emissions projections (2080-2010) [1]

• Likely rise of 3-5+ degrees • Consider best (‘constructive’ ‘B’) and worst (‘in denial’ ‘A’) scenarios

for possible responses and their landscape outcomes

• Several images/maps representative of Cotswolds & Glos views

• Future research plans

Considering the linkages…

Temperature increase (5 degrees)

Longer season, faster crop growth, higher/drier yields.

Grow more arable (wheat,

rape)

Switch to more southern / high-

value crops

Increase in pest and disease outbreaks

decreased summer rain, more winter

storms/floods

1m + Sea level rise, Severn

Switch to more resilient (drought tolerant, robust

over winter) crops

Pressure for more residential

development, infrastructure,

industry?

Severn Vale/lowland

flooding

Hedge and wall degradation (reduced need for boundaries)

Grazing stock relatively more

difficult/low return?

Need for renewable

energy

Grow and harvest more trees – SRC,

woods

Changes in physical structure, more mixed cover, more man-made elements, more intensity of use, more variety of colours

Baseline

[2]

‘A’ scenario - Little mitigation and adaptation

‘B’ scenario - Focussed mitigation and adaptation

High Wold

Crop changes

[3]

6

Landscape change

Enterprise scenario Mitigation and adaptation scenario

[3]

Current Environment Agency Flood Alert Areas + sea level rise of 0.5-1.0m (2100)

Data sources: Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right (2014)

Data sources: Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right (2014)

Gloucestershire Severn Vale

Developed Land Use (ha) 307645 16356

Developed Land Use under threat (ha)

761 761

Percentage 0.25% 4.7%

Development Pressures

[4]

[5]

Future research: Visioning landscapes of climate change in Gloucestershire

• Evaluate the use of geospatial technology to make climate change apparent and meaningful at the local level to the average community member – Refining downscaling of global/regional climate models to local

level – Participatory approach to developing scenarios

• Severn flooding • Development on Cotswolds scarp • Agricultural /landscape change on the high wold • Floodplain Valleys • Lowland

– Visualise scenarios in 3D GIS – Disseminate using different media/formats – Evaluate impact of visualisation on perceptions of climate change

References

1. Defra (2009). Adapting to climate change: UK climate projections. Accessed 28/06/2014 from archive.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/.../uk-climate-projections.pdf

2. Dockerty, T. (2002). Futurescapes: Visualising the potential impacts of climate change on England’s rural landscapes. Accessed 27/06/2014 from http://www.uea.ac.uk/~e384/landscapes.htm

3. Dockerty, T.L, A. A.Lovett, G.Sünnenberg, K.J.Appleton, M.Parry (2005). Visualising the potential impacts of climate change on rural landscapes. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 29, 297-320.

4. Maws, A. (2014). Photomontages of a proposed housing development in Gloucestershire. Accessed on 02/06/2014 from http://andymawdesign.co.uk/portfolio-items/housing-development-gloucestershire/

5. Sheppard, S. (2012). Visualizing climate change: A Guide to Visual Communication of Climate Change and Developing Local Solutions. Routledge.