visibility & control of distributed resources...visibility & control of distributed...
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Visibility & Control
of distributed resources
SEERC TAC Workshop
“TSO & DSO Interaction in operation and planning”
Athens, 23 January 2020
Enrico Maria Carlini
Director of Dispatching and Operations
Phase out thermal capacity (GW) Target NECP
Installed wind and PV capacity (GW) Share of demand covered by RES1,3 (%) Minimum yearly reserve margin2,3 (GW)
RES in the electricity sector (%)
Self-consumption (TWh)
+27,5 GW
+~40 GW
20,7
10,7
Installed capacity by voltage level (%) Installed capacity (GW)
58
40 MW
available at
peak time
Italian Electricity System at a glance
2019
2
2018
29,1
6
2019
60%
42%
79%
27 Aprile
Ore 14:00
28 Aprile Giugno
UE ITALIA UE ITALIA (PNEC)
Quota di energia da FER
nei Consumi Finali Lordi
di energia
20% 17% 32% 30%
Riduzione dei GHG vs
2005 per tutti i settori
non ETS
-10% -13% -30% -33%
Obiettivi 2020 Obiettivi 2030
Share of energy from RES in gross final consumption of energy in 2030
2030 target for non-ETS GHG emissions under ESR compared to 2005
Hourly Daily Monthly
1) Including hydroelectric
2) Difference between the available production capacity and consumption (including the reserve) at the time of maximum load
3) Provisional data 2019
6%
18%
76% LV total capacity
MV total capacity
HV total capacity
28,4 GW
in MV e LV
Adequacy risks to meet peak
demand
National gross final consumption of energy (Mtep) RES share (%)
75,8 72,4 66,7 63,2 62,4 62,4 61,9
22,0 22,122,2 22,3 22,4 22,5 22,5
18,4 18,618,9 19,3 19,7 20,1 20,4
8,5 8,79,1 9,4 9,7 10,2 10,7
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
[GW]
Thermal Hydro
Solar Wind
National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP): Italy by 2030
3
Decarbonization
The NECP targets a complete coal phase-out by 2025 and a significant push towards RES
20
30
Sc
en
ari
o
Ma
in t
arg
et
of
NE
CP
Installed capacity [GW]
Electricity production [TWh]
Coal phase-out by 2025 Growing RES share
177
123
46
49
17
40
24 75 6
7 19 16
290 310
2017 2030 PNIEC
Tradizionale Idroelettrico Eolico Fotovoltaico
Geotermica Bioenergie
RES:
113 TWh RES:
187 TWh
x3
x2,4
PV Wind Hydro
Bioenergy Geothermal
Traditional
9
6 1
46 50
4 4
19 19
10 18
20
51 5
5
117
148
2017 2030 PNIEC
Carbone Olio combustibile Gas naturalePompaggi puri Idroelettrico EolicoFotovoltaico Altre FER
RES:
~53GW
RES:
~93GW
Wind
Natural Gas Oil
Hydro
Other RES
Coal
Pumped Hydro
PV
NECP NECP
National gross final consumption of energy (Mtep) RES share (%)
The rise of Renewable sources: challenges
4
-10,000
0,000
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Demand Residual Load Renewables
50.000
40.000
30.000
20.000
10.000
0
-10.000
Demand Residual load Renewables
2030 scenario
The increasing penetration of renewables in the generation mix, combined with the simultaneous decommissioning of
conventional carbon-fired power plants is putting system operations at stress
1. Steep RAMPS for instance when the sun sets and the
contribution from PV falls
2. Reduced FREQUENCY REGULATION to automatically balance
supply and demand
3. GRID CONGESTIONS as wind-solar production is concentrated
most of all in the Centre-South area
4. Poor reactive power for VOLTAGE CONTROL coming from DG
connected to the distribution
5. ADEQUACY risks: lack of reserve margin to meet load at peak
time
6. OVERGENERATION when net load is negative or where wind
parks raise local congestions
7. Reduced INERTIA when less generators with rotating mass is in
operation
OPERATIONAL ISSUES RESIDUAL LOAD GROWING ISSUE
5
The rise of Renewable sources: solutions
GRID EXPANSION
• To strengthen connections between internal market zones and cross-border exchanges with neighboring
countries;
• Synchronous condensers for voltage regulation, inertia and short circuit level
MARKET DESIGN
• Power Purchase Agreement and tenders to finance RES investments
• Capacity market to give long-term price signals to ‘peakers’ unit
• Aggregation of demand, RES and storage to access Ancillary Services Market
STORAGE
• Additional 6 GW of storage capacity by 2030 to meet security, adequacy and flexibility* needs
DIGITALIZATION
• Data-exchange between TSO-DSOs to allow GD observability and controllability
• ICT infrastructure to capture distributed flexibilities
Focus in the
following
* Ramp up/ down at the sunrise/ sunset, downward regulation to accommodate the excess of non-dispatchable generation
Potenza totale BT
Potenza totale MT
Potenza totale AT/AAT
Qtà impianti BT
Qtà impianti MT
Qtà impianti AT/AAT
LV/MV Perimeter HV/HHV Perimeter
Structure of the current Italian production mix
Share1, per number and rated power2, of all the power plants distributed over the Italian national territory, sorted by primary energy source and kV
level:
1 Source: GAUDÌ, extraction performed in January 2019. 2 For the thermal source, the input power of the Production Units was considered (net of the part reserved for primary regulation), while for all the other
sources the nominal active power of the plants was considered.
Num [x1000] Pinst [GW]
799.4 7.3
1.3 0.1
4.7 0.2
1.7 0.1
0.02 0.001
807.3 7.7
Num [x1000] Pinst [GW]
22.6 11.7
2.6 3.3
0.6 1
4.0 4.7
0.02 0.002
29.9 20.7
Num [x1000] Pinst [GW]
0.1 1.1
0.4 23.2
0.3 9.1
0.3 54.1
0.03 1.0
1.3 88.5
Num [x1000] Pinst [GW]
822.2 20.1
4.3 26.7
5.7 10.3
6.1 58.9
0.1 1.0
838.4 116.9
Source
PV
Hydro
Wind
Thermal
Other
Total
LV MV HV / EHV Total
In Italy almost 1/4 of installed capacity is connected to the MV-LV distribution grid (≈28 GW).
Real-time telemetries from such DG are not acquired by Terna (for the time being).
Plant number distribution: Plant power distribution:
837 k plants 28.4 GW TOT
Qty of LV plants (96,3% of the Total)
Qty of MV plants (3,6% of the Total)
Qty of HV/HHV plants (0,1% of the Total)
LV total power
MV total power (17,7% of the Total)
(6,6% of the Total)
HV/HHV total power (75,7% of the Total)
Already today in Italy 25% of installed generation capacity is “DER”
6
100% monitored by Terna in real time 1 0% monitored by Terna in real time 2
The significant growth of RES connected to MV/LV, and the increasingly "active" role played by prosumers in the provision of flexibility, make
the observability of distributed resources of key importance for the TSO to manage properly the power system.
1 As defined by the IEC 60870 and 61850 standards, data acquisition takes place every 4 s via SCCT (Control and Conduction System). 2 Terna reads 3 times a day, for the purposes of forecasting, only the measurements of a subset of MT plants (ca. 200).
Direct observability and controllability of DER is fundamental for a safe operation
Controllability of grid connected DERs
PRODUCTION VHV/HV Ca. 1100 plants
NATIONAL TRANSMISSION GRID DISTRIBUTION GRID USERS
TRANSFORMER SECONDARY
SUBSTATIONS
(MV/LV)
PRIMARY
SUBSTATIONS
(HV/MV)
Ca. 2100
TRANSPORTATION
STATIONS
558 HYDRO
COIL
OIL
GAS
GEOTHERMAL
WIND
PV
BIOMASS
CROSS-BORDER
EXCHANGE
Distributed Generation LV (DG)
Ca. 800k plants
Agriculture
Tertiary
Domestic
Industry
Distributed Generation MV (DG)
Ca. 30k plants
Storage systems
The word «observability» refers to the ability to know in real time the main electrical data of the power system, in order to manage it correctly and
safely.
7
In the new energy context the observability of the DG becomes crucial for the secure management of the Electric System.
Most notably, the following applications will benefit from information of resources connected to the distribution networks:
Real-Time applications
Forecast applications
Ex-Post applications
Demand & RES forecast:
o Higher reliability in forecast data and nowcasting,
with consequent advantages for network security
and economy of operation
Reserves dimensioning :
o Lower dimensioning of the reserve quantities to be
purchased (e.g. replacement reserve - RR)
System Analysis
Turn Historical Data Into Predictions
Grid development, reporting
8
Grid calculation (static and dynamic regime)
o Estimation of system inertia in real time
o Early detection of dynamic instabilities and decision making support
Power flows optimization
o With the inclusion of DG data within the tools (eg OPF - Optimal Power Flow), improves the
computing of the DG enabled to Ancillary services market and the monitoring of its
performance.
Defense Plan
o Increased flexibility and effectiveness of the Defense Plan strategies
Real-time operations
o Optimizatimal activation of aFRR-automatic frequency restoration reserve in real time, with
consequent cost saving
o Fine tuning of wind energy curtailment to maintain system security
DERs observability positively impacts on multiple applications for system operations
Areas of application
Observability of grid connected DERs
Proposed model of observability and data exchange with DSO and SGU
Terna’s implementation model is based on a statistical-probabilistic approach characterized by:
An estimation "engine" developed and centrally managed by Terna, the only solution able to guarantee full visibility and awareness of the potential and the
limits to the reliability of the algorithm itself
Real-time acquisition of a suitable set of "sample" measures selected on the basis of their statistical relevance
The acquisition of other information necessary for the development, operation and evolutionary maintenance of the algorithm (real time and forecast
weather data, technical plant data, historical measurements)
The sample subset of DG consists of:
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EHV/ HV connected
100% monitored by Terna in real time
100% real time estimation by Terna SCADA
and a sample of targeted measures
MV connected Direct Observability Perimeter
LV connected Direct Observability
Perimeter
100% real time estimation by Terna through upcoming central platform and a sample of
targeted measures
10
The model will be based on a combination of probabilistic techniques and algorithms with near real-time estimation and adaptative algorithms (i.e.
with “machine learning” features) which must be provided with a set of input data. In particular, input data can be classified into four main
categories:
Proposed model of observability and data exchange with DSO and SGU
• Direct and precise measurements of electrical parameters and real-time status
signals from a selected subset of DG Tele-measures
Tele-signals
Grid Master Data
• The model will be provided with the master data of the distributed generation plants
already available to Terna (GAUDI’ platform)
Historical data
• Electric data such as the energy produced by plants connected to LV and MV and
the exchange of active and reactive power flowing to the HV grid
• Time series are used for the continuous running of estimation models and for the
identification of statistical correlations between input data and target outputs
Meteorological data • Weather forecasts are key parameter for forecasting/estimating generation from
solar PV
11
Produced energy historical
series
Power-generating facilities
profiles and topological
configuration
Produced energy real-time
targeted measures [selection
of a DG plants sample on MV
/ LV networks]
Meteorological models and
real-time data
System Operator Applications
(Real–Time, Forecast, Ex-post
analysis)
Central platform: input data
processed by estimation
algorithm
INPUT OUTPUT
100% DG infeed estimated in
near real time
Conceptual framework
The total energy produced by renewable sources is estimated by metering a representative
subset of plants
Observability of grid connected DERs - Model
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Data collection and transmission model
Observability of DERs - Architecture
Output
State Estimator SCCT
DSO
SCCT
system for real
time operation
SCDM
Security, Control &
Defence System
SGD
ARC-GD
Defense System
SGD
Virtual
RTU
Computation
algorithms
HV
HV
MV + LV
MV – LV
HV
Other DG
installations
RTU/IED
Terna’s SCADA system dedicated to DG data to ensuring high level of flexibility and scalability for
future applications
Each DSO’s concentrator is provided with a virtual RTU1 dedicated to the data flow towards Terna’s
DG SCADA
(1) Today, each gateway is equipped with 2 virtual RTUs: one dedicated to the SCADA, one dedicated to the Defense Systems
TSO
Accuracy level
13
Minimum requirements – Key Parameters
Higher levels of accuracy: > 95% (target 98%)
Tightening constraints compared to «minimum requirements» allows for advanced applications
Accuracy level 3
Over 90%4
Run frequency for calculation 4
15 min
Systems Recovery Time
RTO2: 5 min; RPO3: 5 min
Electrical metrics of interest 1
Active and Reactive Power Production
DEFENSE SYSTEMS (BEST OPTION) REAL-TIME OPERATIONS, POWER FLOWS OPTIMIZATIONS,
GRID CALCULATIONS (MINIMUM REQUIREMENTS)
Aggregation level 2
Aggregation for Primary Substation distribution
Split type (PV, Wind, Hydro, Thermo, Other)
Run frequency for calculation
<5 min (target 1 min)
Systems Recovery Time 5
RTO2: 6 hh ; RPO3: 45 min
Observability of grid connected DERs - Model
1 Evaluated on 98° percentile | 2 RTO: Recovery Time Objective 3 RPO: Recovery Point Objective | 4 Measured on larger aggregation perimeters
14
BACK-UP
15
• Strengthening of North-South backbone and grid reinforcements
in the South of Italy and the Islands
• Foreign interconnections - Reinforcement and meshing of national
transmission grid
• Investments in voltage regulation and to increase the inertia
of the electricity system
• Capacity Market to deliver long-term price signal to encourage investments
in new efficient and flexible generation
• Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) long-term power purchase contracts
for RES
• Long-term contracts through competitive procurement for storage capacity
• Participation of new flexible resources in ancillary services market, i.e.
demand, distributed generation, non-programmable renewable energy sources
and storage, including electric vehicle-to grid
• Evolution of the structure of the ancillary services market to cope with new
needs (voltage regulation, inertia,…)
• Digitalisation of the Transmission Grid (Assets and processes) and of its
control systems (data management)
• Full IoT, Energy Systems e Advanced Materials
• Sector Coupling
Transmission
grid
development
Long-term
price signals
Market
evolution
Innovation
and
digitalisation
1
2
3
4
Key enablers of the energy transition
16
• Demand Response
• Distributed Generation
• Non-qualified RES
• Storage (including EVs)
Potentially more than 800k
generation units and ca. 40 million
consumptions units
ca. 250 Generation
Units
• Relevant
qualified units
(P>10MVA)
ca. 250 Generation
Units
• Relevant
qualified units
(P>10MVA)
What is our strategy?:
• Increase the amount of resources able and available to provide grid services
• Diversify the portfolio of resources eligible for participation in ancillary services markets
• Enable the participation of new market players from outside the sector
… to a market with an higher degree of complexity From traditional resources…
Pilot Projects currently
under way Opening the Italian Ancillary Services Market to new resources
Markets evolution