2015/16 SEASONAL

OVERVIEW AND HARVEST

EXPECTATIONS

Francois ViljoenManager:

VinPro Consultation Services

VINPRO INFORMATION DAY

21 JANUARY 2016

Content:

1. Statistics

2. Seasonal Overview

3. 2016 Crop Expectations (2nd week Jan)

4. Summary

1. Statistics

Plantings and uprootings

6 2

63

5 9

26

4 9

26

4 0

71

3 5

93

2 9

40

2 9

33

2 9

73

3 0

79

2 2

85

1 9

87

2 1

64

3 8

29

4 0

95

4 0

62

3 9

44

4 1

14

4 0

70

3 6

69 3 9

89

3 9

74

4 0

04

3 3

76 3 7

24

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Ha

Plantings uprootings Log. (Replacement)

100 207

99 463

1 312 184

1 477 156

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*

98 000

98 500

99 000

99 500

100 000

100 500

101 000

101 500

102 000

102 500

Area Planted (ha) Total

SA Wine Grape Production

• older lower-yielding being uprooted – low

profitability

• planting of predominantly higher yielding

cultivars

• advanced/better technology and

management practices

• good climate/no climatic disasters

Reasons for good harvest: 2012 – 2015

2. Seasonal Overview

How has the season progressed

thus far and how do our

vineyards look like in general ?

2.1 Autumn 2015

• Late leave fall – good accumulation of

reserves

• Post harvest rains April/May�

�

2.2 Winter 2015

We need enough:

• Cold units = good rest

• Rainfall = fill up dams and soilwater

Weather station:

Helderfontein (Infruitec) Stellenbosch

RAINFALL (mm)

MONTH LTA 2015 DEV

April 50.9

May 81.5

June 113.4

July 92.6

August 92.6

3.8 -47.1

20.6 -60.9

114.4 +1.0

105.7 +13.1

44.7 -47.9

TOTAL 431mm 289.2mm -33%

2.3 Spring 2015- budbreak; flowering; fruitset period:

• Good even budbreak

• Slow start – cold soils

• Good to very strong growth – warmer October

• Good flowering conditions

From the last week in

October…..

El Niño

Unleashed itself onto this

country

2.4 Summer 2015

Weather station:

Helderfontein Stellenbosch

Source: ARC LNR

MONTH

MAX TEMP (°C)

LTA 2015 DEV

August 19.6

September 21.7

October 24.7

November 26.3

December 29.0

21.1 +1.5

23.4 +1.7

27.3 +2.6

28.1 +1.8

30.9 +1.9

Viticulture lesson:

What happens to the grapevine

when temperatures rise above 35°C?

Nuwe Cultivars

• Not enough winter rains

• Even budbreak; good growth

• Good fruitset for early cultivars

• Not so good on late flowering

cultivars e.g. Cabernet Sauvignon –

loose bunches

• Effect of the heat and limited water

resources

• Lighter bunches/smaller berries

Summary of season:

3. 2016 Crop Estimation:

• Survey was done 2nd week of

January

• Detailed figures available on

SAWIS website

REGIONAL CROP ESTIMATION

District 2014* (Record crop)

2015* 2016*

NORTHERN CAPE 131 421 (89.5) 129 663 (98.7)

OLIFANTSRIVER 238 146 (95.7) 236 429 (99.3)

SWARTLAND 143 759 (113) 135 999 (94.6)

LITTLE KAROO 43 961 (94.1) 40 939 (93.1)

PAARL 162 142 (109.5) 144 847 (89.3)

ROBERTSON 224 796 (94.7) 235 244 (104.5)

STELLENBOSCH 151 878 (121.5) 126 413 (83.2)

BREEDEKLOOF 250 601 (98.5) 257 123 (102.6)

WORCESTER 173 004 (105.5) 170 499 (98.6)

Grape Harvest (ton) 1 490 635 1 519 708

TREND + 1.4 % - 2.8 %

↓

↓

↓ ↓

↓↓↓

↓

↓↓

↓↓

↓

↓↓

- ?? %

↓

• Expecting a significant smaller crop this

year

• To what extend is difficult to say at this

stage

• If the heat and drought continues - so will

the negative impact !!

Crop Estimation Summary

4. Conclusion

On a positive note……

• All is not doom and gloom!!

– despite the smaller crop

• Smaller berries

– flavour/colour concentration

– good quality wines

• Optimal ripeness at lower

sugar

– lower alcohol wines

May you have enough

new/innovative plans to overcome

the challenges of this year and

may you achieve your budget’s

bottom line

Wish you a wonderful, happy

and successful 2016!

Thank you to all my

VinPro Colleagues for

their help!!