vilnius parliament presentation 2013

27
Migration, Austerity and New Challenges to Labour Markets in the Baltic/Nordic Region Professor Charles Woolfson LABOUR MIGRATION IN THE BALTIC SEA COUNTRIES: TRENDS AND PROSPECTS 25 April 2013 Constitutional Hall, Parliament of the Republic of Lithuania, Gedimino av. 53, Vilnius

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Page 1: Vilnius Parliament Presentation 2013

Migration, Austerity and New Challenges to Labour Markets in

the Baltic/Nordic Region

Professor Charles Woolfson

LABOUR MIGRATION IN THE BALTIC SEA COUNTRIES: TRENDS AND PROSPECTS

25 April 2013 Constitutional Hall, Parliament of the Republic of Lithuania,

Gedimino av. 53, Vilnius

Page 2: Vilnius Parliament Presentation 2013

Acknowledgments

• Swedish Council for Working Life and Social Research (FAS) Project Number: 2011-0338, Svensk modell och baltisk rörlighet: harmonisering eller social dumpning? En studie av arbetsmigration mellan Baltikum och Sverige.

• The Swedish Institute, Visby Programme grant 00749/2010 East-West labour migration, industrial relations and labour standards in a Swedish-Baltic context.

• Indre Genelyte, REMESO doctoral candidate and Professor Arunas Juska, University of East Carolina, prepared key empirical charts.

Page 3: Vilnius Parliament Presentation 2013

Key Labour Market Indicators

Page 4: Vilnius Parliament Presentation 2013

Real GDP growth rate compared to previous year (%)

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (f) 2013 (f)

EU (27 countries) EstoniaLatvia Lithuania

Page 5: Vilnius Parliament Presentation 2013

Pu

blic

se

cto

r

Private sector

Private sector (low but growing informalization)

Private sector (high informalization)

Public sector

Core EU Countries Peripheral (post-socialist) countries

Private sector

Seco

nd

ary

segm

en

t:

lab

or

inte

nsi

ve/l

ow

-ski

ll P

rim

ary

segm

en

t: h

igh

w

age/

hig

h e

du

cati

on

/ski

ll

Dual labor markets in Core and Peripheral Countries

Page 6: Vilnius Parliament Presentation 2013

*Source: LR Finansu Ministerija (2013). ES lėšos Lietuvos biudžete at http://www.finmin.lt/c/portal/layout?p_l_id=PUB.1.64

10.4 12.1

15.9 17.19

20.46

14.7 13.38

19.91

21.73

1.39 2.003 2.162 3.48

5.1 5.92

7.89

6.92

7.131 11.79%

14.20% 11.97%

16.84%

19.95%

28.71%

37.09%

25.79%

24.71%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

0

5

10

15

20

25

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

% o

f B

ud

get

Acc

ou

nte

d b

y EU

Tra

nsf

ers

Bill

ion

s o

f Li

tas

Lithuanian Government's Budget (billion Litas, 2004-2012)

Revenue EU funds % budget accounted by EU funds

Page 7: Vilnius Parliament Presentation 2013

Cartoon by Rytis Daukantas from Jakeliunas, Stasys. 2010. Lietuvos Krizes Anatomija. Vilnius: UAB Kitos Knygos, p. 91

Page 8: Vilnius Parliament Presentation 2013

Characteristics of dual labour market

• Primary sector State and local administration/high skill/high education -Some wage reductions -Secure employment -External EU programme funding support -High social capital/patronage/ networking/ -Relative employment security -Reduced labour rights

• Secondary sector Low wage/low skill/manufacturing/service -Large wage reductions -Mass unemployment -Increased temporary contracts, easier dismissal, longer hours -Informalization and job insecurity -Reduced labour rights

Page 9: Vilnius Parliament Presentation 2013

Size of Informal Economy % of GDP 1997-2012

Page 10: Vilnius Parliament Presentation 2013

Size of the Shadow Economy of 31 European Countries in 2013

Sourrce: F. Scneider at http://www.econ.jku.at/members/Schneider/files/publications/2013/ShadEcEurope31_Jan2013.pdf

Page 11: Vilnius Parliament Presentation 2013

Real wages (%, YoY) Source: SEB Baltic Household Outlook April 2013

Page 12: Vilnius Parliament Presentation 2013

Primary public sector

Secondary Private

Bifurcation: Hollowing out of middle

Two-thirds earn less than average wage (2,202LT or €637 per month)

Primary private (“Oligarchs”)

195 Thousand (18.5%) of workforce earn minimum wage or less

Page 13: Vilnius Parliament Presentation 2013

Key Social and Demographic Indicators

Page 14: Vilnius Parliament Presentation 2013

Poverty in Lithuania

Page 15: Vilnius Parliament Presentation 2013

20.5 20.0 19.10 20.0 20.6 20.2 20.0

26.1 26.6 25.50

27.2

29.4

31.8

33.4

746

918

1188

1512

1746

1472 1452

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

LIta

s

Pe

rce

nt

Poverty, At Risk of Poverty, and Level of Poverty in Lithuania (2005-2011)*

Poverty level At Risk of Poverty Level of poverty for 4 persons' houshold

* Source: Statistics Lithuania

Page 16: Vilnius Parliament Presentation 2013

Life expectancy at birth, men and women 2002 and 2011

Page 17: Vilnius Parliament Presentation 2013

Demographic projections for Baltic States 2010-2060

Source: Eurosat

Page 18: Vilnius Parliament Presentation 2013

Population aged 65 years or over (%

of the total population) Source: Eurostat

Page 19: Vilnius Parliament Presentation 2013

Migration as “exit”

Page 20: Vilnius Parliament Presentation 2013

Emigration from Baltic states plus Poland to Norway, Denmark and Sweden

1813

3573

4810

8069

9257

8737 7881

7135

7141

1116 2389

4439

9279

17305 18333

15172

21011

23418

3708

5098

8360

13725 15686

19146

9666

8741 9024

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Sweden

Norway

Denmark

Page 21: Vilnius Parliament Presentation 2013

11,032 15,165 15,571

12,602 13,853 17,015

21,970

83,157

53,863

41,100

4,728 5,553 6,789 7,745 8,609 9,297 6,487

5,213 15,685

19,843

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Emig

rati

on

pe

r 1

,00

0 p

op

ula

tio

n

Emig

ran

ts/I

mm

igra

nts

in t

ho

usa

nd

s

Emigration, Emigration Rate, and Immigration Lithuania 2003-2012

Emigrants Immgrants

Page 22: Vilnius Parliament Presentation 2013

Emigration by age group from Lithuania 2012

12.6%

7.1%

20.5% 20%

12.3%

8.8%

6.5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0-14 15–19 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44

Page 23: Vilnius Parliament Presentation 2013

Prognosis: Austerity is the new “normal”

Page 24: Vilnius Parliament Presentation 2013

Social distance indicators Lithuania and Sweden compared

(Source: 4th European Social Survey)

Most people can be trusted or you can't be too careful; Most people try to take advantage of you, or try to be fair; Most of the time people helpful or mostly looking out for themselves

Page 25: Vilnius Parliament Presentation 2013

Things are going in the right direction or in the wrong direction in your country? (% positive)

Source: Estonia HDR 2011

Page 26: Vilnius Parliament Presentation 2013

“Most elected officials care what people like me think”

Percentage Agree

1991 2009 Change % % Poland 24 37 +13 Russia 18 26 +8 Ukraine 22 23 +1 Hungary 32 22 -10 Slovakia 21 22 +1 Czech Rep 34 18 -16 Lithuania 30 15 -15 Bulgaria 21 14 -7 (Source: PEW Attitude Survey 2009)

Page 27: Vilnius Parliament Presentation 2013

Then and Now “Do you want to be free?” A loud affirmative response of “YES!” roars over the massed throng attending a pro-independence rally. Landsbergis continues: “But it will be hard. Will you persevere?” Again, “YES!” booms through the crowd. Vytautas Landsbergis, 1990. “We are living through our second historical trial since breaking with the Soviet Union. <…> Either we will persevere or the future (of our nation) will be one of oblivion. We need more friendliness and brotherliness, less egoism, less exploitation and more humanity and sociability in Lithuanian society. Otherwise we will either destroy ourselves through drink or we will disappear and be scattered throughout the world.” Vytautas Landsbergis, 2013.