vilas mujumdar p.e., usa vice-chair, wfeo-disaster risk ... · natural hazards (frequency has been...

Vilas Mujumdar, P.E., USA

Vice-Chair, WFEO-Disaster Risk Management Committee

International Conference on Engineering for Sustainable Energy in Developing Countries

Guangzhou, ChinaSept. 5-8, 2013

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Outline of Presentation

a. Natural Hazards Considered

b. Community as a coupled complex system

c. System level interdependencies

d. Electrical Power systems Resiliency

e. Community Resiliency approach

f. Conclusions

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Natural Hazards (Frequency has been increasing ) Earthquakes Tsunamis Hurricanes Floods Fires landslides should be considered on a local condition basis Natural Hazard risks are aleatoric by nature and can be

dealt with probabilistic models

Probability for each hazard event is different

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Natural Hazard Disruptive Event - Impact

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Built Environment

Economic Structure

Societal Infrastructure

FUNCTIONALITY

COMMUNITY

RE SILIENCE

COMMUNITY

COMPOSITION

Short term Long term

Business disruptions

Restore & retrofit

Buildings

Infrastructure

Healthcare

Emergency services

Business closures & relocation

Economic recovery

Revise codes &

Regulations


Impact

Community – A Coupled Complex System

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Organizational Systems

Technical Systems Economic Structure

Socio-technical

Socio-economic

Decisions

Technical

Organizational

Economic


Social

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Community System Behavior

Community System

BehaviorPredictable

FunctionalityUnpredictable


Infrastructure systems

Socio‐economic systems

Socio‐economic systems

1 .Joint fragility models for infrastructure systems,

2. Interdependency models with socio-economic systems

Action

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Linkages of Subsystems

Hazard

Built Environment

Economic Infrastructure

Societal Infrastructure

DECISIONS

COMMUNITY

RESILIENCY

Coping

Rigid

Non‐linear & flexible

Flexible


Electrical power is very important as power outage affects buildings, water systems, transportation systems, Communication systems & socio-economic systems

Electric power outages and the duration of outages from multiple hazards have been growing steadily

Electric network consists of:

1. Generation2. Transmission3. Distribution4. Use

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Electrical Network functioning is Critical to:

1. Physical infrastructure systems a. Water systemb. Wastewater treatment systemc. Transportation network d. Communications

2. Socio-economic systemsa. Organizational - Business interruptionsb. Emergency Management operations

System design

Operational

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Some Natural Hazards – Impact on Power Transmission

Strong wind & Thunder storms Lightening storms

Wild Fires Winter snow storms This material is copyrighted and cannot be used without the permission of the author Source‐Google

Transmission Sub- stationTransmission lines Poles

Hazard Impact - Electrical systems

11This material is copyrighted and cannot be used without the permission of the author

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Brazil & Paraguay – 2009 Heavy rains and Strong storm short circuited transformers on a heavy

transmission lineDuration‐ Up to 7 hrs

Population affected – 87 M

China‐ Hunan Province ‐2008Worst Winter storm in 50 yrs. Collapse of transmission and distribution systems

Duration ‐ nearly two weeks Population affected – 4.5 M

Power Outage Impact – Developing Countries(Some Examples)

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Nuclear plants, six coal‐fired plants and 11 oil‐fired power plants were shut down. This is 11 percent of Japan’s total power.

Tohoku ‐ Japan 2011Massive earthquake and Tsunami

China, 2008 The Wenchuan, Sichuan Province,

Earthquake 7.9 Mag. Electric power generation plants, hydro and coal fire, sustained damage.Distribution and transmission systems damaged by landslides and rock falls Duration of outage – 60days

Recent Power Outage – Japan & China

Some 70 miles away, however, a microgrid in Sendai, Japan remained unaffected and supplied power to a hospital and part of an university

campus connected to it.This material is copyrighted and cannot be used without the permission of the author Source‐Google

Electric Power -Outage


Electric power outage data for US (1990-2005 ) - NERC

The annual rate of increase of outages in the U.S. - 7.2% , Canada - 8.2% Duration of an outage is directly related to population density Outages are longer in the winter and summer than in the spring and

autumn, due to weather Weather and equipment failure are responsible to a great extent, with

weather becoming a more important source of outages over time

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Economic Impact Estimates based on earning capacity, the value of a life and the cost of transportation delays from various sources, business losses, premature death, and transportation public service interruptions, the estimated cost of a 20 hour outage in the New York City region is over $1.2 billion (Zimmerman, Restrepo, Simonoff, and Lave 2007, p. 286)

Interdependency – systems level

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Types of Interdependencies1. System design (some examples)

a. Building systems with electrical networkb. Water system with electrical networkc. Transportation network with electrical networkd. Communication network electrical network

2. Operationala. Hierarchical – within utility companiesb. Organizational – between power utility co. & othersc. Socio-economic systems


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Physical interdependence – various utilities

Courtesy O’RourkeUtilities in Manhattan, NY

Operational Level Interdependency (Example – Electrical network )

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ElectricalNetwork

Local Water Systems

Transportation Systems

Hierarchy within Organization

H

H

H

0.85

0.80

0.90


Socio‐economic Systems

M

0.50

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Once the Interdependency relationships are defined, systems can be evaluated for enhancing

resiliency


Resiliency

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DefinitionGeneralResilience is the capacity of a system to survive, adapt, and grow in the face of unforeseen changes, even catastrophic incidents

Community Resiliency is cross-disciplinary by definition


National Academy of Engineering- USA“The ability to prepare & plan for, absorb, recover from, and more successfully adapt to adverse events”

Resiliency

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Dimensions of Resiliency


Electric Power Systems

Socio-economic systems

a. Redundancyb. Robustness

a. Robustnessb. Resourcefulness

Electric Power Systems Resiliency Considerations

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1. Generation Fuel Storage Facilities – Robust Design Fuel Supply Lines – Ability to withstand Ground movements Power Plant Facilities – Robust Design- High safety levels

2. Transmission Transmission Towers – Structural design considerations Transmission Lines – ability to stand large movements

3. Distribution Substations – Robust design & redundancy Transformers – Design of poles, alternate methods

4. Final user connection points – overhead, underground


Electric Power Systems Resiliency Considerations

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A. Identify Critical points of vulnerability in the systemB. Use of Smart GridsC. Connections with other national/regional gridsD. Distributed Generation facilities – Mega citiesE. Self sufficient communities – Mini power plants

Provide Alternate sources of electrical power Hydro Wind Off-grid solutions Solar Bio-fuels

Resiliency

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Goal of resiliency is to reduce the impact of a hazard

Resiliency can be decomposed into technical, economic and social components. These components are interdependent.

Resiliency can be measured by time required to restore : The damage to built environment, Reduced economic activity, and Disruption to services needed for normal functioning

Quantifying Resiliency in numerical terms is difficult, need both quantitative and Qualitative approaches


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Functionality

0

100

Time

A

B

C D

E

Measure of Resiliency

B = Event OccurredE = Full Recovery

T1 T2

80T2 - T1 = Rate of Recovery (Rapidity)


Resiliency

Community Resiliency

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RC = ∑ RB, RE, RS │F

Total Community Resiliency:

Where,RC = Total Community resiliencyRB = Resiliency of Built EnvironmentRE = Economic system resiliencyRS = Societal systems resiliencyF = Functionality


Functionality can be graded as poor, average, and good

Quantifying Resiliency in numerical terms is difficult, need both quantitative and Qualitative approaches

Resiliency Components

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Built - Environment Resiliency Factors - RB

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System design basis:a. modern design codes,b. network redundancy, c. robustness of components and overall network,d. shock-absorbing elements,e. self–repairing capacity of networks, f. material properties, andg. quality of construction

Operational basis:a. enforcement of codes and regulations, b. maintenance of networks, c. periodic review of age and condition of networks, d. retrofit requirements, and e. incentives for retrofit.


Economic System Resiliency Factors - RE

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System design basis: a. sound economic structure of the community,b. availability of low-cost business insurance,c. government policies to promote business environment, d. infrastructure to conduct daily business, and e. availability of needed workforce.

Operational basis: a. business association to address common issues, b. emergency plan for workforce,c. business continuation plan, d. ability to quickly restart business, and e. willingness to partner with other businesses and

community leadership, and government agencies.


Societal System Resiliency Factors - RS

System design basis: a. established social institutions, b. community volunteer groups, c. appropriate government agencies for assistance, d. established lines of communications, e. community facilities for mass temporary housing, f. emergency plan for the community, and g. stock of basic supplies for 72 hours.

Operational basis: a. regular evacuation drills, b. workable evacuation routes, c. clarity in hierarchical authority structure, and d. community education in risk and risk management.

Chile‐2010 New Zealand 2010, 2011

Earthquake magnitude

8.8 7.1 & 6.3

Dead 723 184

Wounded 500 50

Economic Loss(% of GDP)

30B ‐ USD(18)

24B ‐ USD(20)

Local time Early Morning Mid‐day

State of Country (UN)

High Developing Developed

Rank in human

Basic Comparison – Two earthquakes

Attribute

Chile New Zealand

RB Medium/High High

RE Medium High

RS Low/Medium High/Very High

Functionality (F) Average Average/Good

Overall ResiliencyRC

Medium High

Community Resiliency Comparison

The impact of a natural hazard depends on its intensity, duration, and on the pre-existing conditions Pre-existing conditions can be assessed in three broad areas: built environment, economic structure and social institutions. These conditions decide the resiliency of each componentFunctionality/operations of various systems play a critical role in determining resiliency of each component.Identify critical vulnerable points in the electrical systemDevelop alternate sources of power as complimentary to the existing grid

Conclusions

Overall resiliency of a community comprises of resiliency of built environment, resiliency of economic structure, and resiliency of social institutionsA well defined organizational structure and clarity in hierarchical responsibilities is necessaryThe overall resiliency can be graded on a qualitative scaleResiliency does not have to be same each hazard. Different levels of resiliency can be created in a community to deal with different hazards

Conclusions

Enhancing community resilience results in minimizing the impact of a hazard

T AH N YK O U

vilas mujumdar p.e., usa vice-chair, wfeo-disaster risk ... · natural hazards (frequency has been...

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