vietnam by numbers
TRANSCRIPT
Nov 2020 – Page 1
November 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal
• Vietnam by Numbers looks at the key economic and sector data pertinent to Vietnam
primarily through charts.
• The same set of charts and tables will be monitored and presented. Any commentary will be
limited to the key changes that transpired and will be given the ‘less is best’ treatment,
essentially letting the figures do the talking.
• The charts and tables are broadly arranged along the categories of global/regional, domestic,
and sector related. The publication gives readers a quick snapshot of key macro, market, or
sector data and used for internal or external presentations or needs.
CONTENT
GLOBAL MACRO INDICATORS ...................................................................................................................................................... 4
Fig 1: Global GDP forecasts (%) .............................................................................................................................................................4 Fig 2: OECD Leading Indicator ...............................................................................................................................................................4 Fig 3: OECD Business & Consumer Confidence Indicator .....................................................................................................................4 Fig 4: VIX, S&P 500 ................................................................................................................................................................................4 Fig 5: Nasdaq & Dow Jones Industrial Average .....................................................................................................................................4 Fig 6: Brent Oil Price vs. Bbg Industrial Metals Index ...........................................................................................................................4 Fig 7: Gold & Silver Prices .....................................................................................................................................................................4 Fig 8: Bitcoin & Gold Prices ...................................................................................................................................................................4 Fig 9: 10 Year Gov’t bond yields (US, EU, JP) vs FED Fund Rate ............................................................................................................5 Fig 10: Price change of S&P 500 & Forward 12M EPS ...........................................................................................................................5 Fig 11: Bloomberg Barclays US Corp. HY Bond & IG Bond OAS Spread ................................................................................................5 Fig 12: iTraxx Asia IG CDS Spreads ........................................................................................................................................................5 Fig 13: Global Manufacturing PMI, IP & Trade Growth ........................................................................................................................5 Fig 14: ASEAN 4 – Sovereign CDS spreads.............................................................................................................................................5 Fig 15: Vietnam – FTAs between Vietnam and Other Countries ..........................................................................................................5 Fig 16: Vietnam – Google Mobility Indicator ........................................................................................................................................5
VIETNAM MACRO INDICATORS ................................................................................................................................................... 6
Fig 17: Vietnam – Annual GDP YoY Growth (%) ....................................................................................................................................6 Fig 18: Vietnam – Quarterly GDP YoY Growth (%) ................................................................................................................................6 Fig 19: Vietnam - GDP per Capita (USD) ................................................................................................................................................6 Fig 20: ASEAN – Real GDP YoY Growth (%) ...........................................................................................................................................6 Fig 21: Vietnam – Real GDP by Industry GDP ........................................................................................................................................6 Fig 22: ASEAN – Real GDP (%) ...............................................................................................................................................................6 Fig 23: Vietnam – CPI, PPI (YoY, Quarterly, %) ......................................................................................................................................7 Fig 24: Vietnam – CPI (%) ......................................................................................................................................................................7 Fig 25: Vietnam – CPI Key Categories (%) .............................................................................................................................................7 Fig 26: ASEAN – CPI (YoY, %) .................................................................................................................................................................7 Fig 27: Vietnam – CPI Breakdown (%) ...................................................................................................................................................7 Fig 28: Vietnam – PMI ...........................................................................................................................................................................8 Fig 29: Vietnam vs. Asia PMI .................................................................................................................................................................8 Fig 30: Currency (%, vs USD) .................................................................................................................................................................8 Fig 31: DXY Index & VND/USD Exchange Rate ......................................................................................................................................8 Fig 32: VND Trading Bands ....................................................................................................................................................................8 Fig 33: Vietnam – Bond Yields (%).........................................................................................................................................................8 Fig 34: Vietnam – Government bond issuing rate ...............................................................................................................................8 Fig 35: Vietnam - Total value of OMO and T-bill issued ........................................................................................................................8 Fig 36: Vietnam – Top Imports Products in 10M2020 ..........................................................................................................................9 Fig 37: Vietnam – Top Exports Products in 10M2020 ...........................................................................................................................9 Fig 38: Vietnam – Top Imports Countries in 10M2020 .........................................................................................................................9 Fig 39: Vietnam – Top Exports Countries in 10M2020 ..........................................................................................................................9 Fig 40: Vietnam – Overview of Imports/Exports ...................................................................................................................................9 Fig 41: Vietnam - Investment YoY Growth by Sector (%) ......................................................................................................................9 Fig 42: Vietnam – Investment Weight By Sector (%) ............................................................................................................................9 Fig 43: VN-Registered&Disbursed FDI, Cumulative YTD (USDbn) .......................................................................................................10 Fig 44: Vietnam – Registered FDI Breakdown in 10M2020.................................................................................................................10
Nov 2020 – Page 2
November 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal
Fig 45: Vietnam – Direct Investment vs Portfolio Investment ............................................................................................................10 Fig 46: Vietnam – Current Account & BoP/GDP (%) ...........................................................................................................................10 Fig 47: Vietnam – Balance of Payment Accounts ................................................................................................................................10 Fig 48: Vietnam – Foreign Reserves ....................................................................................................................................................10 Fig 49: Vietnam – Debt (as % GDP) .....................................................................................................................................................10 Fig 50: Vietnam – External Debt Breakdown (%) ................................................................................................................................11 Fig 51: Vietnam – Budget Deficit (VND bn) ........................................................................................................................................11 Fig 52: Vietnam – Remittances (USD bn) ...........................................................................................................................................11 Fig 53: ASEAN - Remittances (USD bn) ................................................................................................................................................11 Fig 54: Vietnam – Urbanization rate (%) .............................................................................................................................................11 Fig 55: VN – Employment & Labour Force Participation Rate ............................................................................................................11 Fig 56: Vietnam – Employment & Unemployment Rate .....................................................................................................................11 Fig 57: Vietnam – Monthly Minium Wages by Region (VND mn) ......................................................................................................11 Fig 58: Vietnam - Business registration situation ................................................................................................................................12
VIETNAM BANKING SYSTEM ....................................................................................................................................................... 13
Fig 59: VND Interbank Deposit Rate by Term .....................................................................................................................................13 Fig 60: ASEAN – Lending Rate (%) .......................................................................................................................................................13 Fig 61: Vietnam – Loans/GDP % ..........................................................................................................................................................13 Fig 62: ASEAN – Loans/GDP %.............................................................................................................................................................13 Fig 63: Vietnam – Mortgage Loans/GDP % .........................................................................................................................................13 Fig 64: ASEAN – Mortgage Loans/GDP (%, YE19) ................................................................................................................................13 Fig 65: Vietnam – Breakdown Loans (%) .............................................................................................................................................13 Fig 66: Vietnam – NIM (%) ..................................................................................................................................................................13 Fig 67: Vietnam – Credit YoY Growth (%) ...........................................................................................................................................14 Fig 68: Vietnam – Credit & Deposit YoY Growth (%) ...........................................................................................................................14 Fig 69: Vietnam – LDR (%) ...................................................................................................................................................................14 Fig 70: VN – Current Account & Savings Account, % share of deposits ..............................................................................................14 Fig 71: Vietnam – CAR (%) ...................................................................................................................................................................14 Fig 72: VN – Total Assets & Regulatory Capital YoY Growth (%) .........................................................................................................14 Fig 73: Vietnam – Banks ROA (%) ........................................................................................................................................................14 Fig 74: Vietnam – Banks ROE (%) ........................................................................................................................................................14 Fig 75: Vietnam – Fee to Total Income (%) .........................................................................................................................................15 Fig 76: Vietnam – Reserve Cover (%) ..................................................................................................................................................15 Fig 77: Vietnam – NPL (%) ...................................................................................................................................................................15 Fig 78: Vietnam – New NPL Formation Rate (%) .................................................................................................................................15
VIETNAM DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION ......................................................................................................................................... 16
Fig 79: Vietnam - Consumer Loans/GDP (%) .......................................................................................................................................16 Fig 80: Vietnam - Consumer Loans & Credit Growth (%, yoy) ............................................................................................................16 Fig 81: Retail Sales & GDP per Capita (USD) .......................................................................................................................................16 Fig 82: Vietnam - Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence (%) ................................................................................................................16 Fig 83: ASEAN – % Share of E-Commerce to Total Retail Sales ...........................................................................................................16 Fig 84: ASEAN – YoY Growth of E-Commerce Value ...........................................................................................................................16 Fig 85: Vietnam – Number of Supermarkets & Shopping Centers ......................................................................................................16 Fig 86: Vietnam – Motor Vehicle Sales (Incl MBV & Lexus, unit) ........................................................................................................16 Fig 87: Vietnam – Number of Visitor Arrival .......................................................................................................................................17 Fig 88: Vietnam – Visitor Arrival YoY Growth by Country (%) .............................................................................................................17 Fig 89: Vietnam -- New Supply and Sold Units in HCMC .....................................................................................................................17 Fig 90: Vietnam -- New Supply and Sold Units in Hanoi......................................................................................................................17 Fig 91: Vietnam – Condo Primary Selling Price in HCMC (USD/sqm) ..................................................................................................17 Fig 92: Vietnam – Condo Primary Selling Price in Hanoi (USD/sqm) ..................................................................................................17 Fig 93: Projects advertised by District in HCMC, YTD20......................................................................................................................17 Fig 94: Projects advertised by District in Hanoi, YTD20 ......................................................................................................................17 Fig 95: Projects advertised by Month in HCMC, YTD – Nov 20 ...........................................................................................................18 Fig 96: Projects advertised by Month in Hanoi, YTD – Nov 20 ............................................................................................................18
VIETNAM POWER INDUSTRY ...................................................................................................................................................... 19
Fig 97: Vietnam – Total Power Production & Demand (kWh bn) .......................................................................................................19 Fig 98: Vietnam – Power Production and Purchase 10M2019 ...........................................................................................................19 Fig 99: VN – Electricity Generation Capacity by Investors 2018 .........................................................................................................19
Nov 2020 – Page 3
November 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal
Fig 100: Vietnam - Electricity Demand by Sector (kWh mn) ...............................................................................................................19 Fig 101: Vietnam – Volume Deficiency (kWh bn)................................................................................................................................19 Fig 102: Vietnam – Electricity Imports/Exports (kWh mn) .................................................................................................................19 Fig 103: ASEAN – Electricity Price, Jul 2018 (USDc/kWh)....................................................................................................................19 Fig 104: Average Retail Price – All Users ($c/kWh) ............................................................................................................................19 Fig 105: Direct Generators (mn W) .....................................................................................................................................................20 Fig 106: Market Ceiling Price for Competitive Generation Market (USDc/kWh) ................................................................................20 Fig 107: Coal Plant Construction Starts in SE Asia ...............................................................................................................................20 Fig 108: Vietnam – Power Development Plan ....................................................................................................................................20
VIETNAM CAPITAL MARKETS ...................................................................................................................................................... 21
Fig 109: MSCI Index vs. VNIndex (%) ...................................................................................................................................................21 Fig 110: VN-Index & MSCI Global Index Performance ........................................................................................................................21 Fig 111: Stock Market Performance (%) .............................................................................................................................................21 Fig 112: VN-Index & Sector Index Performance (YTD) ........................................................................................................................21 Fig 113: PER (x) ....................................................................................................................................................................................21 Fig 114: Valuation Band of VNIndex ...................................................................................................................................................21 Fig 115: ASEAN – Net Profit Growth (%) .............................................................................................................................................21 Fig 116: VN – Tracking Estimated Net Profit Growth for 2020 (%) .....................................................................................................21 Fig 117: Vietnam – Foreign Investors Transactions (USD mn) ............................................................................................................22 Fig 118: Average Daily Turnover (USD mn) .........................................................................................................................................22 Fig 119: Market Turnover by Investors (VND trn) ...............................................................................................................................22 Fig 120: Number of Trading Accounts.................................................................................................................................................22 Fig 121: Number of State Divestment 2016 – 2020: Actual vs Plan....................................................................................................22 Fig 122: Number of SOE IPOs 2016 – 2020: Actual vs Plan .................................................................................................................22 Fig 123: MSCI Frontier Markets 100 Index – Country Weight ............................................................................................................22
SECTOR VALUATION BANDS ....................................................................................................................................................... 23
Fig 124: Aviation – PER (x) ..................................................................................................................................................................23 Fig 125: Aviation – EV/EBITDA (x) .......................................................................................................................................................23 Fig 126: Banks – PER (x) ......................................................................................................................................................................23 Fig 127: Banks – PBR (x) ......................................................................................................................................................................23 Fig 128: Brokers – PER (x) ...................................................................................................................................................................23 Fig 129: Brokers – PBR (x) ...................................................................................................................................................................23 Fig 130: Consumer Discretionary – PER (x) .........................................................................................................................................24 Fig 131: Consumer Discretionary – EV/EBITDA (x) ..............................................................................................................................24 Fig 132: Consumer Staples – PER (x) ...................................................................................................................................................24 Fig 133: Consumer Staples – EV/EBITDA (x)........................................................................................................................................24 Fig 134: Industrial Parks – PER (x) .......................................................................................................................................................24 Fig 135: Industrial Parks – PBR (x) .......................................................................................................................................................24 Fig 136: Materials & Cyclicals – PER (x) ...............................................................................................................................................24 Fig 137: Materials & Cyclicals – EV/EBITDA (x) ...................................................................................................................................24 Fig 138: Oil & Gas – PER (x) .................................................................................................................................................................25 Fig 139: Oil & Gas – EV/EBITDA (x)......................................................................................................................................................25 Fig 140: Ports & Logistics – PER (x) .....................................................................................................................................................25 Fig 141: Ports & Logistics – EV/EBITDA (x) ..........................................................................................................................................25 Fig 142: Property (Non Vingroup) – PER (x) ........................................................................................................................................25 Fig 143: Property (Non Vingroup) – PBR (x) ........................................................................................................................................25 Fig 144: Property (Vingroup Family) – PER (x) ....................................................................................................................................25 Fig 145: Property (Vingroup Family) – PBR (x) ....................................................................................................................................25 Fig 146: Tech & Telecom – PER (x) ......................................................................................................................................................26 Fig 147: Tech & Telecom – EV/EBITDA (x)...........................................................................................................................................26 Fig 148: Utilities – PER (x) ...................................................................................................................................................................26 Fig 149: Utilities – EV/EBITDA (x) ........................................................................................................................................................26
Nov 2020 – Page 4
November 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal
GLOBAL MACRO INDICATORS Fig 1: Global GDP forecasts (%)
2.8
-4.4
5.2
1
5.0 5.5
1
8.0
4.9
-3.4
-4.3
3.1
1
1.9
8.2
-10
-5
0
5
10
2019
E
2020
E
2021
E
20
19
2020
E
2021
E
20
19
2020
E
2021
E
20
19
2020
E
2021
E
20
19
2020
E
2021
E
20
19
2020
E
2021
E
World EU EmergingAsia
ASEAN-5 US China
Fig 2: OECD Leading Indicator
99.0
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
Source: CEIC, VinaCapital As of Oct 2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 3: OECD Business & Consumer Confidence Indicator
94.0
96.0
98.0
100.0
102.0
104.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Consumer Confidence Business Confidence
Fig 4: VIX, S&P 500
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
VIX Index (LHS) SPX Index
As of Oct 2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 30/11/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 5: Nasdaq & Dow Jones Industrial Average
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
Nasdaq DJIA (RHS)
Fig 6: Brent Oil Price vs. Bbg Industrial Metals Index
133.0
47.3
0
50
100
150
200
250
Bbg Industrial Metals Index Brent oil price USD/barrel
As of 30/11/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 30/11/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 7: Gold & Silver Prices
10
15
20
25
30
35
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Gold Silver (RHS)
Fig 8: Bitcoin & Gold Prices
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Gold Bitcoin (RHS)
As of 30/11/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 30/11/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Nov 2020 – Page 5
November 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal
Fig 9: 10 Year Gov’t bond yields (US, EU, JP) vs FED Fund Rate
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
10Y US Gov't Yield 10Y Japan Gov't Yield
10Y EU Gov't Yield FED Fund rate
Fig 10: Price change of S&P 500 & Forward 12M EPS
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
S&P 500 Forward EPS
As of 30/11/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 30/11/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 11: Bloomberg Barclays US Corp. HY Bond & IG Bond OAS Spread
0
1
2
3
4
0
2
4
6
8
10
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bloomberg Barclays US Corp. HY Bond OAS SpreadBloomberg Barclays US Corp. IG Bond OAS Spread (RHS)
Fig 12: iTraxx Asia IG CDS Spreads
0
50
100
150
200
250
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
iTraxx Asia IG CDS spreads
As of 30/11/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 30/11/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 13: Global Manufacturing PMI, IP & Trade Growth
0
20
40
60
-20
-10
0
10
Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20
CPB Trade Vol index YoY CPB World IP YoYJPM global mfg PM SA (RHS)
Fig 14: ASEAN 4 – Sovereign CDS spreads
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Philippines Thailand Indonesia Vietnam
As of 30/11/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 30/11/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 15: Vietnam – FTAs between Vietnam and Other Countries
Fig 16: Vietnam – Google Mobility Indicator
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Retail & Recreation Grocery & PharmacyParks Transit stationsWorkplaces Residential
Source: VCCI, Houselink As of Nov 2020 Source: Google, VinaCapital
Nov 2020 – Page 6
November 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal
VIETNAM MACRO INDICATORS Fig 17: Vietnam – Annual GDP YoY Growth (%)
7.0
1.6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020IMF
Fig 18: Vietnam – Quarterly GDP YoY Growth (%)
2020 growth forecast by IMF Source: MPI, CEIC, VinaCapital Source: CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 19: Vietnam - GDP per Capita (USD)
Fig 20: ASEAN – Real GDP YoY Growth (%)
7.0
1.6
6.7 0
1
6.1
4.3
0
7.8
5.9
-8.3
0
-6.0
5.0
-7.1
4.0
-10
-5
0
5
10
20
19
20
20
E
20
21
E
20
19
20
20
E
20
21
E
20
19
20
20
E
20
21
E
20
19
20
20
E
20
21
E
20
19
20
20
E
20
21
E
20
19
20
20
E
20
21
E
Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand
Source: CEIC, VinaCapital Source: CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 21: Vietnam – Real GDP by Industry GDP
Source: CEIC, VinaCapital Fig 22: ASEAN – Real GDP (%)
Source: CEIC, VinaCapital
c
2.6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
19072052 2109
22152389
25902715
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20
GDP, YoY Growth 5.4 6.0 6.7 6.2 6.8 7.1 7.0 7.5 7.0 3.7 0.4 2.6
Agri., Forestry and Fishery 2.6 3.4 2.4 1.4 2.9 3.8 2.0 2.0 1.6 0.0 1.8 2.9
Industry and Construction 5.1 6.4 9.6 7.6 8.0 8.9 8.9 10.2 7.9 5.0 1.7 2.9
Services 6.7 6.2 6.3 7.0 7.4 7.0 7.3 7.3 8.1 3.3 -1.9 2.8
Net indirect taxes 6.4 7.9 5.5 6.4 6.3 6.1 6.5 6.6 6.4 4.3 1.6 0.7
% share of GDP
Agri., Forestry and Fishery 17.2 16.8 16.1 15.3 14.8 14.3 13.7 13.0 13.0 10.2 17.9 13.1
Industry and Construction 33.1 33.2 34.2 34.6 35.0 35.6 36.2 36.0 37.0 36.8 35.7 36.1
Services 38.4 38.4 38.3 38.6 38.8 38.8 38.9 39.8 39.2 40.5 35.2 39.9
Net indirect taxes 11.4 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.1 10.9 12.4 11.3 10.9
VN ID MY PH SG TH VN ID MY PH SG TH
GDP, YoY Growth 7.1 5.2 4.8 6.2 3.4 4.2 7.0 5.0 4.3 5.9 0.7 2.4
Government consumption 6.3 4.8 3.2 13.0 2.9 2.6 5.8 3.2 2.0 10.5 2.8 1.4
Private consumption 7.3 5.1 8.0 5.6 4.2 4.6 7.4 5.0 7.6 5.8 3.7 4.5
Gross Capital Formation 8.7 6.6 1.4 12.9 -3.4 3.8 8.3 4.4 -2.1 1.5 -0.2 2.1
Change in stocks 3.9 55.6 - 46.4 25.0 - 3.8 -34.2 - - -25.6 -61.1
Net Exports: Goods & Services - -51.1 6.2 - 13.3 -32.5 - 167.8 9.7 - -0.7 17.8
% share of GDP
Government consumption 6.4 7.9 12.4 11.1 10.1 14.7 6.3 7.8 12.2 11.6 10.3 14.6
Private consumption 67.7 54.2 56.9 68.5 37.0 51.0 67.9 54.2 58.7 68.4 38.1 52.1
Gross Capital Formation 31.4 33.0 24.6 30.5 25.0 23.9 31.7 32.8 23.1 29.2 24.7 23.9
Change in stocks 3.0 1.9 -0.7 0.3 2.1 2.4 2.9 1.2 -1.0 -0.3 1.6 0.9
Net Exports: Goods & Services - 0.9 6.7 - 27.1 5.9 - 2.2 7.0 - 26.7 6.8
2018 2019
Nov 2020 – Page 7
November 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal
Fig 23: Vietnam – CPI, PPI (YoY, Quarterly, %)
1.5
1.6
-1.0
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
CPI Core CPI PPI
Fig 24: Vietnam – CPI (%)
1.48
0.01
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2020 forecast CPI (YoY): 3.0 %
YoY MoM (RHS)
CPI as of Nov 2020 , PPI as of Sep 2020 Source: CEIC, VinaCapital As of Nov 2020 Source: CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 25: Vietnam – CPI Key Categories (%)
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
Others TransportationHealthcare Housing & Const'n MaterialsFoods CPI
Fig 26: ASEAN – CPI (YoY, %)
1.481.4
-1.5
2.5
-0.2-0.5
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia
Philippines Singapore Thailand
As of Nov 2020 Source: CEIC, VinaCapital As of Oct 2020; VN as of Nov 2020 Source: CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 27: Vietnam – CPI Breakdown (%)
2016 2017 2018 2019 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20
CPI, yoy Growth 4.7 2.6 3.0 5.2 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.5 1.5
Core inflation yoy Growth 1.9 1.3 1.7 2.8 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.6
Foods and Foodstuffs 2.9 -1.8 5.1 9.2 11.9 11.8 10.8 9.5 6.6
Housing & Const'n Materials 3.3 4.7 1.1 5.1 0.7 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.6
Health and Personal Care 55.7 27.8 3.7 3.0 3.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5
Transportation -1.1 6.0 0.2 3.5 -14.0 -13.6 -12.6 -13.5 -13.3
% contribution for yoy growth
Foods and Foodstuffs 21.9 -25.0 61.7 63.3 126.7 124.0 130.8 129.1 150.4
Housing & Const'n Materials 14.2 33.5 14.4 13.4 0.9 2.1 5.0 5.3 8.2
Health and Personal Care 54.7 64.7 0.9 9.2 5.4 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.9
Transportation -3.7 15.7 20.2 -3.9 -49.3 -40.0 -39.5 -52.8 -86.7
Others 12.9 11.0 2.8 18.0 16.4 12.9 2.8 17.2 26.2
Source: CEIC, VinaCapital
Updated weights of CPI basket 2020-2025
Overal CPI index YoY 100.00
Food and foodstuffs 33.56
Food 3.67
Foodstuffs 21.28
Food services 8.61
Beverage and tobacco 2.73
Garment. footwear. 5.70
Housing & material construction 18.82
Household goods 6.74
Medicaments and health care 5.39
Transportation 9.67
Telecommunication 3.14
Education 6.17
Culture. sport. entertainments 4.55
Other consumer goods & services 3.53
Nov 2020 – Page 8
November 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal
Fig 28: Vietnam – PMI
49.9
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Fig 29: Vietnam vs. Asia PMI
52.5
49.9
30
34
38
42
46
50
54
58
Dec
-17
Feb
-18
Ap
r-1
8
Jun-
18
Au
g-1
8
Oct
-18
Dec
-18
Feb
-19
Ap
r-1
9
Jun-
19
Au
g-1
9
Oct
-19
Dec
-19
Feb
-20
Ap
r-2
0
Jun-
20
Au
g-2
0
Oct
-20
Asia Vietnam
As of Nov 2020 Source: IHS Markit, VinaCapital
VN as of Nov 20; Asia as of Oct 20 Source: IHS Markit, VinaCapital
Fig 30: Currency (%, vs USD)
-2.1
0.1 0.1
-5.8
4.2
-2.4-1.7
1.10.4
-4.5
3.3
5.3
-2.0
1.40.6 0.8
8.6
-1.7
4.4
0.2
-4.9-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2018
20
19
20
20
YT
D
2018
20
19
20
20
YT
D
20
18
2019
20
20
YT
D
20
18
2019
20
20
YT
D
2018
2019
20
20
YT
D
2018
20
19
20
20
YT
D
2018
20
19
20
20
YT
D
VN ID MY PH SG TH DXY
Fig 31: DXY Index & VND/USD Exchange Rate
72
77
82
87
92
97
102
107
20000
21000
22000
23000
24000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
VND/USD DXY Currency (RHS)
As of 30/11/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 30/11/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 32: VND Trading Bands
19500
20500
21500
22500
23500
24500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Interbank rate Lower band
Uer Band Unofficial Mkt
Fig 33: Vietnam – Bond Yields (%)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 15Y
As of 30/11/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 30/11/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 34: Vietnam – Government bond issuing rate
Fig 35: Vietnam - Total value of OMO and T-bill issued
Source: SBV, VBMA Source: SBV, Bloomberg
Cc
Nov 2020 – Page 9
November 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal
Fig 36: Vietnam – Top Imports Products in 10M2020
25%
14%
6%5%3%
3%3%2%
2%
37%
PCs & electronic items
Machinery & equipment
Mobile &spare parts
Fabrics
Iron & steel
Plastics
Plastic products
Other base metals
Petroleum products
Others
Fig 37: Vietnam – Top Exports Products in 10M2020
18%
16%
11%
9%6%
4%
3%
3%
2%
28%
Mobile &spare parts
PCs & electronic items
Textiles & garments
Machinery & equipment
Footwear
Wood & wooden products
Transportation vehicles
Fishery
Iron & steel
Others
Source: Customs (Preliminary), VinaCapital Source: Customs (Preliminary), VinaCapital
Fig 38: Vietnam – Top Imports Countries in 10M2020
41%
24%
15%
10%
7%
2% 1%China
South Korea
ASEAN
Japan
EU
US
India
HongKong
Others
Fig 39: Vietnam – Top Exports Countries in 10M2020
27%
16%
13%
8%
7%
7%
4%
2% 1%15%
US
China
EU
ASEAN
South Korea
Japan
HongKong
India
UAE
Others
Source: Customs, VinaCapital Source: Customs, VinaCapital
Fig 40: Vietnam – Overview of Imports/Exports
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD-Nov 20
Total Imports and Exports 228.3 264.1 298.1 327.6 351.4 428.1 480.6 517.7 489.1
Total Exports 114.5 132.0 150.2 162.0 176.6 215.1 243.7 264.3 254.6
%yoy 18.2 15.3 13.8 7.9 9.0 21.8 13.3 8.4 5.3
Total Imports 113.8 132.0 147.8 165.6 174.8 213.0 236.9 253.4 234.5
%yoy 6.6 16.0 12.0 12.0 5.6 21.9 11.2 7.0 1.5
Trade Surplus/ Deficit 0.7 0.0 2.4 -3.6 1.8 2.1 6.8 10.9 20.1
Domestic Companies -3.4 -6.5 -7.4 -16.9 -19.7 -22.6 -23.0 -23.6 -12.4
FDI Companies 4.1 6.5 9.7 13.3 21.4 24.7 29.8 34.5 32.5
Source: Customs, Nov-GSO, VinaCapital
Fig 41: Vietnam - Investment YoY Growth by Sector (%)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019YTD-
Sep 20
Total investment 11.9 8.9 12.3 11.2 10.2 4.9
State 6.8 7.3 6.9 3.9 2.6 13.7
Non-State 12.8 9.5 17.1 18.5 17.3 2.7
Foreign-Sector 19.9 10.4 12.8 9.6 8.1 -2.4
Total investment/GDP 32.6 33.0 33.4 33.5 33.9 34.7
Fig 42: Vietnam – Investment Weight By Sector (%)
Source: MOF, CEIC, VinaCapital As of Sep 2020 Source: MOF, CEIC, VinaCapital
abc
38.1 36.9 40.2 40.4 39.9 38.0 37.5 35.7 33.3 31.0 33.6
36.1 38.538.1 37.7 38.4 38.7 38.9 40.6 43.3 46.0 44.4
25.8 24.5 21.6 21.9 21.7 23.3 23.6 23.7 23.4 22.9 22.1
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Investment State Investment Non-state FDI
Nov 2020 – Page 10
November 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal
Fig 43: VN-Registered & Disbursed FDI, Cumulative YTD (USDbn)
8.716.0
9.0 10.8 9.1 6.7-2.4
-6.5
12.5
-8.0
41.7
-13.9 -11.8 -3.2 -20
0
20
40
60
80
100
(5)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 11M2020
(%)USD bn
FDI Disbursement (USD bn)FDI Registered (exl. Purchased stocks) (USD bn)%yoy FDI Disb. (RHS)%yoy FDI Regis.(RHS)
Fig 44: Vietnam – Registered FDI Breakdown in 10M2020
0
15%
2%11%
Manufacturing
Elec., Gas, Air Con Supply
Whsle, Retail Trade
Real Estate Activities
Construction
Others
Source: CEIC, VinaCapital Source: CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 45: Vietnam – Direct Investment vs Portfolio Investment
98.1
10.711.6
13.61 9
15.7
0 1.50.1
-0.1
0.2 1
3.0 0
0
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 6M20
Direct investment (USD bn) Portfolio investment (USD bn)
Fig 46: Vietnam – Current Account & BoP/GDP (%)
5.5
10.0
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 6M20
Current Account/GDP (%) BOP/GDP (%)
Source: SBV, CEIC, VinaCapital Source: SBV, CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 47: Vietnam – Balance of Payment Accounts
USD mn 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 6M20
Current account 8,617 -2,039 625 -1,651 5,769 12,478 2,816
Goods trade balance (f.o.b.) 12,126 7,375 11,042 10,845 16,540 21,221 10,272
Services trade balance -3,950 -4,765 -4,258 -4,030 -3,810 -1,191 -4,198
Investment income (primary) -8,844 -12,150 -14,144 -16,994 -15,818 -16,795 -7,228
Transfers (secondary) 9,285 7,501 7,985 8,528 8,857 9,243 3,970
Financial account 5,571 967 10,726 20,027 8,466 18,971 1,550
Direct investment (net) 8,050 10,700 11,600 13,620 14,902 15,670 6,551
Portfolio investment (net) 93 -65 228 2,069 3,021 2,998 -790
Other investment (net) -2,572 -9,668 -1,102 4,338 -9,457 303 -4,211
Net errors and omissions -5,813 -4,959 -2,961 -5,832 -8,204 -8,195 755
Overall balance 8,375 -6,032 8,390 12,544 6,031 23,254 5,121
Current Account/GDP (%) 4.6 -1.1 0.3 -0.7 2.4 4.8 5.5
BOP/GDP (%) 4.5 -3.1 4.1 5.6 2.5 8.9 10.0
Source: SBV, CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 48: Vietnam – Foreign Reserves
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
YT
D-J
ul2
0
Total Reserve Minus Gold (USD bn) (LHS)
Import Cover (RHS)
Fig 49: Vietnam – Debt (as % GDP)
Source: SBV, CEIC, VinaCapital Source: SBV, CEIC, VinaCapital
Abc
56.154.3
49.2 48.5
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E
Public Debt: % of GDP Government Debt: % of GDP
National External Debt: % of GDP External Debt Cap
Public Debt Cap
Nov 2020 – Page 11
November 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal
Fig 50: Vietnam – External Debt Breakdown (%)
Fig 51: Vietnam – Budget Position (VND bn)
-138,380
-300,000
-250,000
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
Dec-13 Sep-14 Jun-15 Mar-16 Dec-16 Sep-17 Jun-18 Mar-19 Dec-19 Sep-20
Budget Deficit/GDP (Sep 20): -3.3%
Source: MOF, VinaCapital Source: MOF, VinaCapital
Fig 52: Vietnam – Remittances (USD bn)
Fig 53: ASEAN - Remittances (USD bn)
Source: World Bank, VinaCapital Source: World Bank, VinaCapital
Fig 54: Vietnam – Urbanization rate (%)
Fig 55: VN – Employment & Labour Force Participation Rate
72.3
51.8
68
70
72
74
76
78
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Sep
-16
De
c-1
6
Mar
-17
Jun
-17
Sep
-17
De
c-1
7
Mar
-18
Jun
-18
Sep
-18
De
c-1
8
Mar
-19
Jun
-19
Sep
-19
De
c-1
9
Mar
-20
Jun
-20
Employment (person mn)Labour Force Participation Rate (RHS)
Source: CEIC As of Sep 2020 Source: GSO, VinaCapital
Fig 56: Vietnam – Labour Force & Unemployment Rate
55.8
2.2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Labour force (person mn) Unemployment rate (%, RHS)
Fig 57: Vietnam – Monthly Minimum Wages by Region (VND mn)
4.42
3.07
3.923.43
1.60
0
1
2
3
4
5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
VND mn
General Region I Region II
Region III Region IV
Source: GSO, VinaCapital Source: GSO, VinaCapital Abc
53.7 49.3 46.9 42.4 41.9
46.3 50.7 53.1 57.6 58.1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Government Enterprise
4.3
3.4
5.0 5.34.7
5.5 5.7
8.0
6.9
5.7
7.16.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
5
10
15
20
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
VN as % of GDP
17.0
11.7
1.7
35.2
7.1
0
10
20
30
40
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
VN ID MY PH TH
% as of GDP in 2019VN: 6.5%; ID: 1%; MY: 0.5%; PH: 9.3%; TH: 1.3%
18.319.9
37.0
0
10
20
30
40
1949
1954
1959
1964
1969
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009
2014
2019
Nov 2020 – Page 12
November 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal
Fig 58: Vietnam - Business registration situation
2014: 52,192
2015: 68,347
2016: 81,451 2017: 93,967
2018: 96,611
2019: 102,300
11M2020:124,251
2014: 41,303 2015: 47,604
2016: 45,097
2017: 49,345
2018: 73,103
2019: 49,400
11M2020: 78,000
Newly established enterprisesEnterprises suspending operation
Source: GSO, VinaCapital
Nov 2020 – Page 13
November 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal
VIETNAM BANKING SYSTEM Fig 59: VND Interbank Deposit Rate by Term
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
ON 1W 1M 3M
Fig 60: ASEAN – Lending Rate (%)
0
5
10
15
20
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
VN ID MY
PH SG TH
As of 30/11/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: SBV, Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 61: Vietnam – Loans/GDP %
Fig 62: ASEAN – Loans/GDP %
130 130136
32 33 32
117 120 121
46 4859
121 119 121112 112 111
2017
2018
2019
2017
2018
2019
2017
2018
2019
2017
2018
2019
2017
2018
2019
2017
2018
2019
Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand
Source: SBV, CEIC, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 63: Vietnam – Mortgage Loans/GDP %
Fig 64: ASEAN – Mortgage Loans/GDP (%, YE19)
Source: Euromonitor International Source: Euromonitor International
Fig 65: Vietnam – Breakdown Loans (%)
24.9 30.0 33.1 36.8 9 9 9 0
19.9 15.6 13.1 10.5 8.2 9
51.1 50.5 49.2 48.7 46.5 9
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 6M20
Retail loans (% of loans) SOE loans (% of loans)
FDI loans (% of loans) Corp loans (% of loans)
Fig 66: Vietnam – NIM (%)
1
2
3
4
5
6
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 9M20
SOCBs Private Banks 11 Banks
Source: Data of 11 banks under VinaCapital coverage Source: Data of 11 banks under VinaCapital coverage
abc
95.2 97.0 100.8111.0
122.3130.0 130.3
135.6
0
30
60
90
120
150
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
4
4.6
5.25.5
5.75.9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
5.93.5
39.8
4.1
49.3
23.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
VN ID MY PH SG TH
Nov 2020 – Page 14
November 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal
Fig 67: Vietnam – Credit YoY Growth (%)
21.0
37.7
29.8
10.98.9
12.514.2
17.3 18.3 18.2
13.9 13.7
9.811.1 11.1
0
10
20
30
40
Fig 68: Vietnam – Credit & Deposit YoY Growth (%)
12.5
14.2
17.318.3
18.2
13.9
13.7
10.2
23.0 19.4
14.3
17.7
14.112.8
13.912.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Sep20
Credit Growth Deposit Growth
Source: SBV, forecast numbers by VinaCapital Source: SBV, VinaCapital
Fig 69: Vietnam – LDR (%)
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 9M20
SOCBs Private Banks 11 Banks
Fig 70: VN – Current Account & Savings Account, % share of deposits
17.5
18.9 18.4
19.7 19.3
20.2 20.7
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 9M20
Source: Data of 11 banks under VinaCapital coverage Source: Data of 11 banks under VinaCapital coverage
Fig 71: Vietnam – CAR (%)
10.310.9
9.4 9.49.9
9.5 9.5
10.6
14.0
12.612.1
12.7
11.8 11.5 11.210…
6
8
10
12
14
16
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
SOCBs Private Banks
Fig 72: VN – Total Assets & Regulatory Capital YoY Growth (%)
Source: IMF, CEIC, VinaCapital Source: IMF, CEIC, SBV, VinaCapital
Fig 73: Vietnam – Banks ROA (%)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 9M20
SOCBs Private Banks 11 Banks
Fig 74: Vietnam – Banks ROE (%)
0
5
10
15
20
25
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 9M20
SOCBs Private Banks 11 Banks
Source: Data of 11 banks under VinaCapital coverage Source: Data of 11 banks under VinaCapital coverage
abc
40.4
18.9 5.413.9
10.3
15.7
16.418.6
10.9
17.7
30.5
34.0
-5.8
27.5
2.8
20.4
10.412.4
12.017.9
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total Assets Growth Regulatory Capital Growth
Nov 2020 – Page 15
November 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal
Fig 75: Vietnam – Fee to Total Income (%)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 9M20
SOCBs Private Banks 11 Banks
Fig 76: Vietnam – Reserve Cover (%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 9M20
SOCBs Private Banks 11 Banks
Source: Data of 11 banks under VinaCapital coverage Source: Data of 11 banks under VinaCapital coverage
Fig 77: Vietnam – NPL (%)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 9M20
SOCBs Private Banks 11 Banks
Fig 78: Vietnam – New NPL Formation Rate (%)
1.21 1.03
0.93
1.16 1.11
1.41
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 9M20
Source: Data of 11 banks under VinaCapital coverage Source: Data of 11 banks under VinaCapital coverage
Nov 2020 – Page 16
November 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal
VIETNAM DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION Fig 79: Vietnam - Consumer Loans/GDP (%)
Fig 80: Vietnam - Consumer Loans & Credit Growth (%, yoy)
Source: CEIC, VinaCapital Source: CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 81: Retail Sales & GDP per Capita (USD)
Fig 82: Vietnam - Retail Sales (RS) & Consumer Confidence (%)
-2
2
90
120
150
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
Sep
-14
Mar
-15
Sep
-15
Mar
-16
Sep
-16
Mar
-17
Sep
-17
Mar
-18
Sep
-18
Mar
-19
Sep
-19
Mar
-20
Sep
-20
Consumer confidence (RHS) RS (inflation adj.) RS
Source: CEIC, VinaCapital As of Nov 2020 Source: CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 83: ASEAN – % Share of E-Commerce to Total Retail Sales
Fig 84: ASEAN – YoY Growth of E-Commerce Value
Source: Euromonitor International Source: Euromonitor International
Fig 85: Vietnam – Number of Supermarkets & Shopping Centers
Fig 86: Vietnam – Motor Vehicle Sales (Incl MBV & Lexus, unit)
31,607
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Source: CEIC, VinaCapital Source: CEIC, VinaCapital
abc
5.9 5.8 5.5 5.2
10.4
14.3
21.1
25.227.7 27.8
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Jun-20
0
30
60
90
120
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Jun-20
Consumer loans growth System credit growth
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Retail sales per capita (USD) GDP per capita (USD)
1.11.5 1.8 2.0 2.3
1.72.1
2.83.3
4.7 4.45.2
6.8
8.3
9.2
1.3 1.7 1.9
2.9
4.4
0123456789
10
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
Vietnam Malaysia Singapore Thailand
47.8 48.3
32.9
25.0
18.0
62.6
24.9
36.5
25.4
48.7
14.117.9
31.4
23.8
10.5 12.0
30.2
21.1
53.0
60.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
Vietnam Malaysia Singapore Thailand
-
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
Supermarkets Shopping centers
Nov 2020 – Page 17
November 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal
Fig 87: Vietnam – Number of Visitor Arrival
-0.226.0 29.1
19.9 16.2
-76.6
-
5
10
15
20
(100) (80) (60) (40) (20)
- 20 40
Visitor Arrival (person mn) By Airways (person mn)By Roads (person mn) % yoy No. of visitors (LHS)
Fig 88: Vietnam – Visitor Arrival YoY Growth by Country (%)
23.916.9
-81.8
8.1 6.4
-66.2
3.615.2
-76.6
44.3
23.1
-78.4
12.4 12.2
-78.2
15.8
45.9
-71.7
15.9
29.8
-76.9
11.98.6
-74.6-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
2018
2019
YT
D-N
ov2
0
20
18
20
19
YT
D-N
ov2
0
20
18
2019
YT
D-N
ov2
0
2018
2019
YT
D-N
ov2
0
20
18
20
19
YT
D-N
ov2
0
20
18
20
19
YT
D-N
ov2
0
2018
2019
YT
D-N
ov2
0
20
18
20
19
YT
D-N
ov2
0
CN EU JP KR MY TH TW US Source: CEIC, VinaCapital 2020: As of Nov 2020 Source: CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 89: Vietnam -- New Supply and Sold Units in HCMC
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2018 2019 2020
New supply Sold volume
Fig 90: Vietnam -- New Supply and Sold Units in Hanoi
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2018 2019 2020
New supply Sold volume
Source: CBRE Source: CBRE
Fig 91: Vietnam – Condo Primary Selling Price in HCMC (USD/sqm)
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Luxury High-end
Mid-end Affordable
Fig 92: Vietnam – Condo Primary Selling Price in Hanoi (USD/sqm)
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
High-end Mid-end Affordable
Source: CBRE Source: CBRE Fig 93: Projects advertised by District in HCMC, YTD20
18%
1
1
11%
5%
5%
28%
District 8
District 7
District 2
Binh Tan
Binh Chanh
District 9
District 12
Others
Fig 94: Projects advertised by District in Hanoi, YTD20
19%
10%
12%
12%9%
9%
6%
5%
7%
4%7%
Nam Tu Liem Ha Dong
Hoang Mai Ecopark
Cau Giay Long Bien
Thanh Xuan Gia Lam
Tay Ho Bac Tu Liem
Others
Source: CBRE Source: CBRE
Nov 2020 – Page 18
November 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal
Fig 95: Projects advertised by Month in HCMC, YTD – Nov 20
0
20
40
60
80
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
2019 2020
No. of projects No. of advertisements
Fig 96: Projects advertised by Month in Hanoi, YTD – Nov 20
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
2019 2020
No. of projects No. of advertisements
Source: CBRE Source: CBRE
Nov 2020 – Page 19
November 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal
VIETNAM POWER INDUSTRY Fig 97: Vietnam – Total Power Production & Demand (kWh bn)
Fig 98: Vietnam – Power Production and Purchase 10M2019
Source: EVN Source: EVN
Fig 99: VN – Electricity Generation Capacity by Investors 2018
Fig 100: Vietnam - Electricity Demand by Sector (kWh mn)
Source: EVN Source: EVN
Fig 101: Vietnam – Volume Deficiency (kWh bn)
Fig 102: Vietnam – Electricity Imports/Exports (kWh mn)
Source: MOIT Source: MOIT
Fig 103: ASEAN – Electricity Price, Jul 2018 (USDc/kWh)
Fig 104: Average Retail Price – All Users ($c/kWh)
Source: Digitalenergyasia Source: MOIT Abc
115.3
128.6
143.7159.8
174.7
192.9
209.4
127.7143.3
159.7
177.0192.8
212.3
231.1
0
50
100
150
200
250
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total Demand Total Production & Purchase
48.8%
29.1%
18.1%
2.1% 1.4% 0.6%
Coal
Hydro
Gas
Other renewables
Import
Oil
22%
10,540
14%6,938
9%4,496
13%6,195
9%4,208
33%16,196
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
EVN GENCO1 GENCO2 GENCO3 POW Others
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E
Import from China Import from LaosExporting to Cambodia Exporting to Laos
0
5
10
15
20
Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Residential Medium company Big companies
Medium industrial Big industrial
5.65.9
6.5
7.1 7.27.5 7.4 7.3 7.4
8.1
4
5
6
7
8
9
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Nov 2020 – Page 20
November 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal
Fig 105: Direct Generators (mn W)
Fig 106: Market Ceiling Price for Competitive Generation Market (USDc/kWh)
Source: EVN Source: EVN
Fig 107: Coal Plant Construction Starts in SE Asia
Fig 108: Vietnam – Power Development Plan
Source: EVN Source: EVN
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
National system 26,626 30,825 33,440 38,449 41,067 45,145 48,278
Direct trading generators 9,523 11,852 12,868 14,798 17,960 22,536 23,008
% Direct generators 36% 38% 38% 38% 44% 50% 48%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
4.06 4.034.13
4.28
4.83
5.515.34
5.67 5.64 5.57
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Nov 2020 – Page 21
November 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal
VIETNAM CAPITAL MARKETS Fig 109: MSCI Index vs. VNIndex (%)
-11.2
24.0
10.4
-10.4
25.2
10.3
-16.6
15.410.4
-11.3
5.2
-10.4 -9.3
7.74.4
-25
0
25
50
2018 2019 2020YTD
2018 2019 2020YTD
2018 2019 2020YTD
2018 2019 2020YTD
2018 2019 2020YTD
Global Developed Mkt. Emerging Mkt. ASEAN VN-Index
Fig 110: VN-Index & MSCI Global Index Performance
50
65
80
95
110
125
Global Developed Mkt. Emerging Mkt.
ASEAN VN-Index
As of 30/11/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 30/11/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 111: Stock Market Performance (%)
VN ID MY PH SG TH
2015 6.1 -12.1 -3.9 -3.9 -14.3 -14.0
2016 14.8 15.3 -3.0 -1.6 -0.1 19.8
2017 48.0 20.0 9.4 25.1 18.1 13.7
2018 -9.3 -2.5 -5.9 -12.8 -9.8 -10.8
2019 7.7 1.7 -6.0 4.7 5.0 1.0
2020 YTD 4.4 -10.9 0.2 -13.1 -12.9 -10.5
-20
0
20
40
60
Fig 112: VN-Index & Sector Index Performance (YTD)
-45
-25
-5
15
35
55
75
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20
VNIndex Index Financials Ex Real EstateReal Estate Consumer StaplesConsumer Discretionary IndustrialsMaterials UtilitiesEnergy Information Technology
As of 30/11/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 30/11/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 113: PER (x)
VN ID MY PH SG TH
2016 16.5 26.2 16.9 19.4 12.2 16.6
2017 19.0 25.1 16.7 23.4 11.0 18.9
2018 16.4 19.4 18.8 18.9 11.1 15.9
2019 15.9 20.0 18.5 17.1 12.2 18.6
2020F 16.6 22.8 22.3 18.8 25.6 19.4
2021F 13.0 15.2 16.9 18.2 14.0 18.2
0
6
12
18
24
30
Fig 114: Valuation Band of VNIndex
-2std
-1std
+1std
+2std
Mean
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
Nov-15 Sep-16 Jul-17 May-18 Mar-19 Jan-20 Nov-20
As of 30/11/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 30/11/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 115: ASEAN – Net Profit Growth (%)
VN ID MY PH SG TH
2019 8.4 10.1 12.9 12.1 6.2 -9.4
2020F -5.9 -18.9 -4.3 -40.2 -43.0 -38.8
2021F 28.0 46.5 11.0 40.8 38.6 47.1
2022F 19.8 28.8 8.3 23.7 16.3 15.0
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Fig 116: VN – Tracking Estimated Net Profit Growth for 2020 (%)
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
As of 30/11/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 30/11/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Nov 2020 – Page 22
November 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal
Abc Fig 117: Vietnam – Foreign Investors Transactions (USD mn)
2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD-Nov20
Buy 3,868.6 7,315.1 11,456.6 7,016.2 7,334.3
Sell (4,202.5) (6,173.3) (9,582.6) (6,726.7) (7,883.4)
Net (333.9) 1,141.8 1,874.0 289.5 (549.1)
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
Fig 118: Average Daily Turnover (USD mn)
242.8
464.5
269.5
95.5
617.9725.2
1,816.9
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2018
2019
YTD
-20
20
2018
2019
YTD
-20
20
2018
2019
YTD
-20
20
2018
2019
YTD
-20
20
2018
2019
YTD
-20
20
2018
2019
YTD
-20
20
VN ID MY PH SG TH
As of 30/11/2020 Source: Fiinpro, VinaCapital As of 30/11/2020 Source:Fiinpro, Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 119: Market Turnover by Investors (VND trn)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Local retail Foreign retail Local institution Foreign institution
Fig 120: Number of Trading Accounts
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2,300
2,500
2,700
2,900
Jan
-17
Apr
-17
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Apr
-18
Jul-
18
Oct
-18
Jan
-19
Apr
-19
Jul-
19
Oct
-19
Jan
-20
Apr
-20
Jul-
20
Oct
-20
Retail Institution No. new account-RHS
As of 30/11/2020 Source: Fiinpro, Bloomberg As of Oct 2020 Source: VSD
Fig 121: Number of State Divestment 2016 – 2020: Actual vs Plan
0 100 200 300 400 500
Total
2020
1H19
2018
2017
Planned divestment Actual divestment
Fig 122: Number of SOE IPOs 2016 – 2020: Actual vs Plan
Source: Fiinpro Source: Fiinpro
Fig 123: MSCI Frontier Markets 100 Index – Country Weight
28.8
14.7
Outer: Weight After Full ImplementationInner: Current Weight
Kuwait
Vietnam
Morocco
Nigeria
Romania
Kenya
Bahrain
Others
As of Nov 2020 Source: MSCI
0 50 100 150
Total
2020
1H19
2018
2017
Planned IPO Actual IPO
Nov 2020 – Page 23
November 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal
SECTOR VALUATION BANDS
• Historical PER, PBR and/or EV/EBITDA valuation bands of sectors under VinaCapital coverage
as of end-Nov 30, 2020.
Fig 124: Aviation – PER (x)
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Fig 125: Aviation – EV/EBITDA (x)
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 126: Banks – PER (x)
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Fig 127: Banks – PBR (x)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 128: Brokers – PER (x)
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Fig 129: Brokers – PBR (x)
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Nov 2020 – Page 24
November 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal
Fig 130: Consumer Discretionary – PER (x)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Fig 131: Consumer Discretionary – EV/EBITDA (x)
0
5
10
15
20
25
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 132: Consumer Staples – PER (x)
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Fig 133: Consumer Staples – EV/EBITDA (x)
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 134: Industrial Parks – PER (x)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Fig 135: Industrial Parks – PBR (x)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 136: Materials & Cyclicals – PER (x)
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Fig 137: Materials & Cyclicals – EV/EBITDA (x)
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Nov 2020 – Page 25
November 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal
Fig 138: Oil & Gas – PER (x)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Fig 139: Oil & Gas – EV/EBITDA (x)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 140: Ports & Logistics – PER (x)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Fig 141: Ports & Logistics – EV/EBITDA (x)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 142: Property (Non Vingroup) – PER (x)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Fig 143: Property (Non Vingroup) – PBR (x)
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 144: Property (Vingroup Family) – PER (x)
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Fig 145: Property (Vingroup Family) – PBR (x)
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Nov 2020 – Page 26
November 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal
Fig 146: Tech & Telecom – PER (x)
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Fig 147: Tech & Telecom – EV/EBITDA (x)
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 148: Utilities – PER (x)
0
5
10
15
20
25
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Fig 149: Utilities – EV/EBITDA (x)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Nov 2020 – Page 27
November 2020
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Internal
Disclaimer
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