video’s hi-tech future: tv and more david waks and sandy teger co-founders, system dynamics inc....

Video’s Hi-Tech Future: TV and More

David Waks and Sandy Teger Co-Founders, System Dynamics Inc.

Shaping New Jersey’s Telecommunications Future

Princeton University

May 20, 2005

Copyright © 2005

System Dynamics Inc.

Copyright © 2005 Slide 2

About Us: Professionally

• Dave– Founder and R&D director, Prodigy Services Company

• Sandy– 18+ years with AT&T; multimedia strategy director

• Together as System Dynamics Inc.– Specialists in residential broadband

– Consult for companies affected by residential broadband•Strategy, business economics, competitive analysis

– Operate www.BroadbandHomeCentral.com as industry resource•"100 BEST Undiscovered Web Sites" PC Magazine, 4/20/04

– Free monthly Report on the Broadband Home•Subscribers in ~100 countries

– Broadband Home Labs• Integrated in our lives

•Test new products

http://www.bbhcentral.com/

http://www.bbhcentral.com/


What We Mean by “Video”

Broadcast TV Comes To Mind…

But we mean Moving pictures… Delivered by broadcast or over a broadband

connection… One-way or two-way (on-demand or interactive)… Real-time or store-and-forward… To the home or to the person… To TVs, PCs, phones and more!


Video at Home…

…on the PC

…on a home videophone …and at the doctor’s office

…networked from PC to TV

Akimbo Player

Packet8 VideoPhone

uLead Video Editor


…and Video Away From Home

Video to the person, not the place

Mobilephone

Digitalcamera

Personalmedia player

iRiver PMC-120

Kodak Easyshare 1

V CAST


Trends Affecting Tomorrow’s “Video”

• Increasing broadband penetration– “Fat pipe” for digital data, voice and video

• “Everything Digital” and Networked

• “Everything over IP” – VoIP Video over IP

• Video will be dominant broadband application– Takes LOTS of sustained bandwidth

• Broadband everywhere – to the person, not just to the home

• Demarcation of traditional industries disappearing


Increasing Broadband Penetration

• US has >33 million broadband connections– #1 globally in numbers, but lagging in percent penetration

• Cable and DSL predominate now– Fiber, wireless, satellite, BPL coming on strong

• Nearly 60% of US Internet home users now use broadband– Broadband overtook dial-up in July, 2004

• US broadband Internet use almost tripled over the past two years

• New Jersey is #3 in US broadband penetration (behind Hawaii and Massachusetts)

(Sources: Leichtman Research Group, Inc., Nielsen//NetRatings, Gartner, Inc.)


“Digital Everything”

•Transition to digital is powering growth of consumer electronics– Video and audio players– Cameras and camcorders– Television– Telephone– Other new consumer electronics

•U.S. household penetration of digital electronic products– DVD players overtaking VCR penetration– HDTVs 13%– Flat-panel TVs 10%– DVRs 10%

Source: Consumer Electronics Association, May 2005


Everything Digital – Video Players

Video players (VCRs to DVDs)

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Digital

Analog


Everything Digital – Still Cameras

Still cameras

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Digital

Analog


Everything Digital – Camcorders

Camcorders

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Digital

Analog


Everything Digital – Cable Television

Cable Television

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Digital

Analog


Everything Digital – Broadcast Television

Broadcast Television - More Likely

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Digital

Analog


New Consumer Electronics

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Everything Digital – New Consumer Electronics

Digital

Analog


Everything Digital – Summary

AudioPlayers

VideoPlayers

StillCameras

Camcorders

SatelliteTV

CableTV

BroadcastTV

Telephone

New CE

2005


Growth of VoIP: Voice Video

• “Voice over IP”: digital voice over broadband

• Offered by many companies– Cable companies: Cablevision, Comcast, Cox, Time Warner, …– ILECs/Carriers: Verizon, SBC, Qwest, AT&T, MCI, …– Others: Vonage, AOL, Broadvoice, Net2Phone, Skype, Broadvox,

Packet8, VoicePulse, …

• Growing rapidly– Vonage has >600,000 VoIP lines; “on track to reach 1 million by

year end”– Cablevision projects 15% VoIP penetration by end of 2005

• Video + voice over IP tomorrow– Early applications already underway, e.g., Packet8, AIM, Apple

iChat, Comcast Video Mail, …


Industry Structure Changing Fast

• Voice services

• Broadband services– Now: cable (Comcast), telco (Verizon), independents (Covad)– Tomorrow: add satellite (WildBlue), power companies with BPL,

wireless (ClearWire, municipal Wi-Fi and WiMAX)

• Video services – Now: cable (Comcast, Cablevision), satellite (DirecTV, Echostar),

independents (MovieLink) – Tomorrow: add telcos (Verizon), more independents (such as

Google and “DaveTV”!)


Video Everywhere

Fixed Nomadic Portable Range of Mobility

Home

Coffee ShopHotel

Walking aroundtown

In a car

Train orplane


Video: Improving the Way We Live, Work, Play and Learn

Telemedicine sonogram

Distance education

News on the move

Family TV

dave @ bb-home.comsandy @ bb-home.com

www.BroadbandHomeCentral.com

18 Beaver Ridge Road, Morris Plains, NJ 07950-1901

(973) 644-4739 Fax (973) 538-6003

For More Information:

System Dynamics Inc.

http://www.broadbandhomecentral.com/


Video Past, Video Future

• Analog video digital video

• TV PC, cellphones and other mobile devices

• One-way interactive

• One place in the home networked throughout the home

• Video in the home untethered video everywhere

• Limited sources of video lots of commercial and personal sources

• Limited number of players constantly increasing: everybody creates video

• Highly regulated lightly regulated

video’s hi-tech future: tv and more david waks and sandy teger co-founders, system dynamics inc....

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