(potential) wild cards as future shakers and shapers

early and weak warning signals

PresentationFor the: Governmental Forum - Abu Dhabi-

24-25 November Session 1: “Weak signals and wild cards;

implications in different policies”

Victor van RijSenior Advisor Foresight

Ministry of Education, Culture and Science Netherlands

Presentation

Scanning of future horizons

The use of the wild card concept (within two FLA of EU)

EU FLA websitehttp://ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/forward-looking_en.html

EU FLA - Research projects Blue Sky project

Scanning for Emerging Science and Technology Issues (SESTI)

Use of foresight to align research with longer term policy needs in European Commission (FARHORIZON)

Visions, scenarios and implications for policy and practice (INFU)

Participative horizon scanning (CIVISTI)

Wild cards and weak signals (IKNOW)

Security and defence (SANDERA)

EU FLA - Research projects

European Foresight Platform – supporting Forward Looking decision-making (EFP)

The World and Europe in 2030 (AUGUR)

The future of the Mediterranean area (MEDPRO)

The evaluation of EU policies (DEMETER)

Post carbon society (PACT, GILDED, PASHMINA)

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Horizon scanningHorizon scanning

Horizon scanning as integrated approach

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Horizon scanning

Horizon scanning is an instrument to shape the future to (common) desires, needs after participative thinking and debating

Horizon scanning

Systematic Search for Issues with Potential high (Future) Impact on what we consider to be important

Issues are statements /narratives/storylines about the future, based on outcomes of research, trend analysis, scenario studies, weak or faint signal analysis but also on our imagination

Issues are therefore based on a mix of scientific knowledge and tacit knowledge including our imagination

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Issue dimensionsIMPACT : Issues that may have great or less great impact on what we see as important (seize of impact)

PROBABILITY & PLAUSIBILITY : Issues that are certain or less certain but still plausible (probability and plausibility)

DESIRABILITY : Issues that are desirable or not desirable for society (desirability, common or opposed values)

CHANGEABILITY : Issues that are not changeable or changeable by human action (changeability)

TIME : moment of observation , interaction, dynamics

Opportunities/solutions :Opportunities/solutions : Threats/problems from:Threats/problems from:

And Ecology,And Ecology,

EcosystemEcosystem

BiodiversityBiodiversity

Human:Human:

Survival , HealthSurvival , Health

Welfare, wealthWelfare, wealthWellbeingWellbeing

Democracy, lawDemocracy, law

Self-realizationSelf-realization

Culture, ethicsCulture, ethics

Physical environmentPhysical environment

Natural resources from Natural resources from

(Outer) Space, Sun(Outer) Space, Sun

SpaceSpace

Sea and watersSea and waters

Earth and soilEarth and soil

Atmosphere Climate Atmosphere Climate

Living worldLiving world

Physical environmentPhysical environment

Shortage/destruction/Shortage/destruction/

(Outer) Space(Outer) Space

SpaceSpace

Sea and waters Sea and waters

Earth and soilEarth and soil

Atmosphere climateAtmosphere climate

Living worldLiving world

Human action/brainpowerHuman action/brainpower

Science & TechnologyScience & Technology

EducationEducation

Social systemSocial system

Political, Government, legal, Political, Government, legal,

economy, financeeconomy, finance

Other Systems Other Systems (infrastructures, (infrastructures,

production, transport, ICT, production, transport, ICT, energy, industry, energy, industry,

healthcare, agriculture)healthcare, agriculture)

Human action/environmentHuman action/environment

Science, technologyScience, technology

Education Education

Social systemSocial system

Political, Government, legalPolitical, Government, legal

Economy, financeEconomy, finance

Systems (infrastructures, Systems (infrastructures, production, transport, ICT, production, transport, ICT,

energy, industry, health care, energy, industry, health care, agricultureagriculture))

COMMONCOMMON

LONG TERMLONG TERM

DESIRESDESIRES

& VALUES& VALUES

With expected With expected large impact onlarge impact on

society:society:

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certainty

desirability

changeability

Climate Change

Nuclear War

NBIC convergence

The Internet

Migration

Ageing society

Issues with Potential high Impact on what we consider to be important

wild cards

An event or serie (cascade) of events (with seemingly low probability?) that changes the settings of our world completely (causing high impactshocks/disruptions)

Which we hardly see coming or we do not want to see coming

Earth quakes of the mental landscape (Karlheinz Steinmuller), black swans (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)

They usually have immediate and enduring consequences

Wild cards

Rationalisation afterwardsAfter the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight, as if it had been expected (Taleb) . Could we not have foreseen the event???Could we have done anything about it ????

Recent Examples

Flooding New Orleans

9 – 11 –

Financial crisis

Iceland Volcano

Oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico

Important distinctions

It is important to make distinction between

Wild cards that happenedAndEnvisioned (potential) Future Wild cards

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Nature caused Wild(NWC)andHuman caused (HWC)

From wild cards that happened we can learnDifferent types

Tension building - almost invisible trends or sequence of events (DDT, Subprime loans)

Sudden unexpected events with a known very low or unknown probability but which we know will happen on basis of historical evidence (rare coincidence)

Sudden unexpected events wich may never occur but can be imagined and which if they happen have an unavoidable character

The unimaginable

News on public risks subprime loans sample on News google timeline

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1997

1998

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2008

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years/quarters

arti

cles

Number of articles in sample

percentage not paying back(subprime/alt a)

Amount loaned subprime andalt-a (x100 million US dollars)

Financial crisis

Many sub prime loans gave 3 starting years with no interest

Tension building The financial crisisSubprime loans

early warning financial crisis - subprime/alt a and studentloans

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years

Number of articles relatingsubprime to emerging crisisin google news timeline

Number of articles relatingstudent loans to next crisis ingoogle news time line

Percentage subprime/alt-amortgages aborted

Total debt subprime/ alt-amortgages in 10.000 millions(CPB)

Interpolation Total debtstudent loans in 10.000millions (CNBC-America'sbiggest debts)

Tension building The financial crisisStudent loans

Total Student debt in US

Total Articles with worries for a crisis connected to student debt (google news timeline)

Natural caused wild cards (NWC)

•Laws of Nature , historical evidence , black swans

•The communication of potential wild cards is however a human activity which brings in aspects of social caused wild cards

•Wild card search from natural causes usually delivers an assembly of mainly potential negative challenges with a low probability but potential high impact.

•The “where” and “when” and “seize” of potential wild cards of this kind are usually very uncertain which also means that we can encounter many controversies on the probability estimation or duration and seize of the challenge like climate change

Human Caused Wild Cards (HWC)

Are the product of human ideas, emotions, interests, decisions and communication mostly in combination with ( perceived) facts

They can be realized

But can also be created (imagined)

They contain usually wishes and fears,

Powerful HWC influence the future debate, very powerful HWC influence the course of history (as self fullfilling or self denying prophecies)

Human Caused Wild Cards (HWC)

They are used by people who want to change the course of history atlarge as terrorists, political leaders , scientist for good and for bad

They can be powerful lobby- or propaganda tools to change the discourse on the future (warning, selling)

The shape , evoked emotions and facts make the strength of the wild card, but also the timing and context, the authority

Further study is needed on how they work and evolve , also because they can be used to create desirable futures

Horizonscanning of WC and in depth analysis (of roots-targets of HWC) both needed

Realized ones can successfully influence the (future) course of history

But imagined ones can be used as well as propaganda

as warning cards

as marketing cards

Nano saves our lives Bioinspired

nanotechnology creates nano -

vehicles for targeted drugs application and diagnosis. We will be able to cure cancer?

TECHNOLOGY and SCIENCE

“Signals” for HWC can be found everywhere where people create strong future storylines

All media contain signals , internet contains (almost) all media

HWC signals contain a mix of statements that evoke emotions, appeal interests and facts connected to the future.

Their initiation may be intended (The Day after Tomorrow or the Inconvenient Truth) but also unintended (rumour causing panic, financial crisis), so who is initiating, enhancing etc is important

Horizon scanning may enhance and create signals for Wild cards, therefore has the potential not only to inform decision makers but also to create new futures (by initiation of strong persuasive wild cards)

(Potential) wild cards can be used to make the world better but also as weapons in a world of conflict

Finding them needs understanding of emotions, facts and interests who is behind this (so the search of WS needs inter subjective-cultural assessment)

Gulf of Mexico incident

News Google timeline

Start of raising uncontrollable risk deep sea

drill

DESERTEC plans made

public

News Google timeline

What is the value of wild card search and thinkingMaking policies more resilient to the occurrence and the effects of wild card events (more adaptive to what could change suddenly)

Giving us hints on what kind of early (weak) signals to look for

Making us able to monitor the arrival/realisation of wild cards and to timely adapt or mitigate the impact by the monitoring of their early warning signals

Helping to support safety measure investments (like monitor systems , higher dikes, affluence measures for floods, earth quake proof building mechanisms, escape routes etc )

Counteracting undesirable human caused wild cards

Creating futures with positive wild cards

Rationalisation on forehandBefore the fact, the event has happened What can we foresee in parallel with the cases before???How can we spot wild cards that may come ??? Can we do anything about it ????

Examples Earthquake 8.0 Istanbul

Eruption of the Vesuvius

EC financial crisis

US credit card crisis , student loan crisis

Nuclear war from upcoming nations

New technologies resolving the energy crisis in a resolute way ??

New discoveries keeping us healthy and young while ageing??