viago ® …because a business on autopilot sets you free…
TRANSCRIPT
Control Menu
Setting the sceneThe problemThe direction for solutionAlready doing it...Why doesn’t everyone do this?Getting started
2Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited
Control Menu
Most managers live a life of interruptions and fire fighting
An endless stream of issues demand management attention
Is this because the situations we manage are complex?
What if our realities are actually simpler than they appear?
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 3
Control Menu
For the next 15 minutes we will journey into the fundamental nature of complex situations and the simple truths they hide...
And how to get to those simple truths in a fast and effective manner...
... to release management creativity
Ready?Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 4
Control Menu
It is tempting to assume that this deluge is because the system is complex
After all, managers got to be managers because they are good at handling complexity...
If we can blow away the fog of complexity to see the underlying simplicity in complex systems, we will: Make faster, more accurate decisions Do more, with less (increase leverage) Produce more creative solutions Solve apparently unsolvable dilemmas
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 5
Control Menu
We don’t have enough time today to “prove” that all complex systems have simple solutions We can prove it... But not in 15 minutes
We do have enough time to show why it could be true
And draw some commercially useful conclusions based on that
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 6
Control Menu
The underlying problem that managers face when examining complex systems, is this:
Managers assume that if the relationships are complex, then
there are many issues that must be dealt with right now
This leads to prioritising... ... based on urgency (fire fighting)
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 7
Control Menu
This view is false (sorry)
In fact, complex systems are held in place by two powerful forces: A core conflict Feedback loops
Let’s take a closer look...
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 8
Control Menu
It’s true that the system is complex; but what does this mean?
Usually it means: Many undesirable effects The effects are all interacting to form a
mess of “pain chains” Changing any part of the system impacts
other parts of the system Improvements get “undone” as other parts
of the system re-assert the old causalityBlack Belt in Thinking Boot Camp | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 9
Control Menu
Imagine we could “map” the pain chains, the UnDesirable Effects (UDEs)... something like this:
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp : Third Degree | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 10
UDE
UDE
UDEUDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
UDEUDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
Control Menu
Or... something like this:
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp : Third Degree | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 11
Control Menu
If we did map these pain chains, we would discover that...
Complex systems are always held in place by two powerful forces: A core conflict Feedback loops
Like this...
It’s true that the system is complex; but what does this mean?
Usually it means: Many undesirable effects The effects are all interacting to form a
mess of “pain chains” Changing any part of the system impacts
other parts of the system Improvements get “undone” as other parts
of the system re-assert the old causality
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 12
UDE
UDE
UDEUDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
UDEUDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
Control Menu
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp : Third Degree | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 13
A: Cloud’s
objective
B C
D D’
UDE
UDEUDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
Company values and performance measures
Functional areaperformance measures
Functional area UDEs
Control Menu
If we could break the feedback loops...
... and resolve the core conflict (which is usually an interaction of policies, measurements or beliefs) ...
... then reality would immediately begin to transform...
The underlying problem that managers face when examining complex systems, is this:
Managers assume that if the relationships are complex, then there are many issues
that must be dealt with right now
This leads to prioritising... ... based on urgency (fire fighting)
Complex systems are always held in place by two powerful forces: A core conflict Feedback loops
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 14
Control Menu
... then reality would immediately begin to transform...
... and this transformation would be inevitable ...
... Because of the same causality that held the original system in place
That is management leverage!
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 15
Control Menu
What about larger organisations where the functional areas behave almost autonomously?
Each area has its own “current reality”
And, those realities are held in place by overall system constraints...
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 16
Control Menu
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 17
A
B C
D D’
UDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
A
B C
D D’
UDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
A
BC
DD’
UDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
UDE
A
BC
DD’
UDE
UDE
Control Menu
Setting the sceneThe problemThe direction for solutionAlready doing it...Why doesn’t everyone do this?Getting started
19Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited
Control Menu
But isn’t this what managers already do?
Find core problems and fix them?
We wish that were true...
But the reality is, it’s more complex than that...
Hey, wait a minute!
Undesirable effects experienced by many managers
We have many conflicting prioritiesEveryone is demanding more time, more people, more moneyProblems we thought we’d fixed keep resurfacingIt is difficult to focusWe feel we need better systemsIt is difficult to hit our targetsThere are a lot of excusesWe have inter-departmental in-fightingIt feels like we are a going in different directionsIt’s hard to find and retain good peopleCompetition is fierceWe have many constraints; people, equipment, market etc
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 20
Control Menu
Yes, the current reality of a manager (or business owner) is also a complex system, and as such can be analysed using the same process
And, like all such systems, there is a core problem...
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 21
Control Menu
The wording isn’t the key, it’s the sentiment under the words...
... Managers are torn between fire-fighting to retain control (or stop things getting worse), versus creating long term lasting change through increased leverage
Solution?
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 22
AEffective manager
BLeverage my time (achieve
more)
CKeep
everything under control
DFocus on core problem (don’t fight the fire)
D’Fight the fires that come at me every day
Control Menu
The solution is to use the Thinking Process Tools to: Complete an analysis of the current
reality, and Discover the feedback loops Discover the core conflict Build management solutions that last
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 23
Control Menu
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp : Second Degree | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 24
A: Cloud’s
objective
B C
D D’
UDE
UDEUDE
UDE
UDE
Subject definitio
n UDE List……
1. Define the subject area
2. Generic cloud process
(3 UDE clouds)
A: Cloud’s
objective
B
C
D
D’
Generic Cloud Core
Problem
3. Evaporating cloud:What is the core conflict, thatis responsible for the UDEs?
4. Current Reality Tree: Is the core conflict
responsible for all of the UDEs?
A: Cloud’s
objective
B C
D
Inj.
Inj.
DE
DE
Inj.
DE
DE
DE
Cloud’s objectiv
e
Assumption -> Injection
5. Evaporating Cloud: What
assumptions are we going to challenge?
6. Future Reality Tree: Will the
injection lead to all the desired effects?
7. Negative Branch
Reservations: Without creating any new UDEs?
Control Menu
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp : Second Degree | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 25
10. Transition Tree: What actions have to be taken to effectively implement the intermediate objectives?
A: Cloud’s
objective
B C
D
Inj.
Inj.
DE
DE
Inj.
DE
Inj.
DE
DE
Cloud’s objectiv
e
Assumption -> Injection
5. Evaporating Cloud: What
assumptions are we going to challenge?
6. Future Reality Tree: Will the
injection lead to all the desired effects?
7. Negative Branch
Reservations: Without creating any new UDEs?
I.O. I.O. I.O.
I.O.I.O.
Inj.
I.O.
Inj.
I.O.
Obst
Obst
ObstObst
Obst
Obst
9. Prerequisite Tree: What major obstacles currently
prevent the implementation of the injections?
Inj.
I.O.
I.O.
Inj.
I.O.
Inj.
8. Necessary Condition Network:
Implementation plan(s) to deliver
each of the intermediate
objectives, and injections
Obst
Action
I.O.Obst
Action
I.O.
Control Menu
So if it’s that easy, why doesn't every manager do this?
There are negative side effects, and obstacles, to taking this approach...
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 26
Control Menu
NEGATIVE SIDE EFFECTS
Increased management (or customer) heat on avoidable day-to-day incidents
Pressure from subordinate managers (“you are being unreasonable” or “you don’t care about me”)
Accusations of over-simplicity
Scrutiny; cannot hide the logic anymore
Feeling overwhelmed by the big picture
OBSTACLES
Lack of authority to make changes, especially to policies
Resistance from others, from whom collaboration is required
Unclear thinking Unclear communication Fire-fighting is rewarding
and reinforcing
Unwilling to accept; “it’s all my fault!”
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 27
Control Menu
To train all managers to use these tools effectively, there is a need to overcome these negative side-effects, and obstacles
And while most people are more logical than we realise (inside their own heads)...
... what comes out of their heads (written and spoken) often does not seem so logical to us
So we know training is required to increase clarity, simplicity and logical communication
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 28
Control Menu
Which leads us to a new conflict...
... Managers are torn between paying for training (which is very time-consuming and expensive) versus paying only for education (which ticks the box but might not change anything)
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 29
AEffectively deploy new concepts
BUse new
techniques every day
CKeep training costs under
control
DTrain
(transfer skill and fluency)
D’Educate(transfer
knowledge)
Control Menu
Time’s up!
I’ll let you figure out that last one yourself...
... or if we have time for questions, we can discuss it now...
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 30
Control Menu
Setting the sceneThe problemThe direction for solutionAlready doing it...Why doesn’t everyone do this?Getting started
31Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited
Control Menu
Research “TOC Thinking Processes” Read Thinking for a Change by Lisa Scheinkopf Behind the cloud: Enhancing logical
thinking by Jelena Fedurko The Choice by Eliyahu Goldratt Thinking Smart: You are how you think by
Khaw Choon Ean It’s Not Luck by Eliyahu Goldratt
Visit www.the-competitive-advantage.com Visit www.blackbeltinthinking.com
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 32
Control Menu
Nice to meet you today
Please pass forward your business card if you’d like to connect with me via LinkedIn, or receive our monthly newsletter
The following slides are appendices: Some common current realities The Boot Camp
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 33
Control Menu
There are sets of UDEs which a Third Dan Graduate should recognise
When you see these pain chains, you can turn to the pre-prepared analyses of these common CRTs, and use those as a starting point for solution design These are called “Applications”
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp : Third Degree | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 34
Control Menu
UDES PROPOSED BY OPERATIONS Raw materials/parts are not always
available when needed Priorities constantly shift Often needed equipment is not available Often resources are not available when
needed Often there is a need to reduce/increase
quantities and/or change the mix of an order already in process
There is too much expediting There is too much over time There is too much rework There is too much scrap
UDES PROPOSED BY OTHER FUNCTIONS Lost sales Too many customer complaints Too often we pay premiums for urgent
deliveries of raw materials and/or parts Often we need to pay our customers
penalties A high portion of the sales people time is
spent on customer service Our reputation is damaged We are unable to sell to some markets There is high staff turnover We have high working capital needs Profitability is not as high as it can be Too high levels of finished goods
inventories
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp : Third Degree | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 35
Typical measures in operationsDue Date Performance Operating CostLead Time Work In ProcessQuality Throughput (rate of output)
Control Menu
UDES PROPOSED BY DISTRIBUTION Too often there is a need for an
urgent delivery Priorities constantly shift Too many shortages Too many inventory items have too
high inventory levels Too many inventory items are
obsolete Dead inventories level is too high There are too many cross-shipments There are too many customer returns Delivery costs are too high
UDES PROPOSED BY OTHER FUNCTIONS Lost sales Introduction of new products is often
delayed Reduced profit Too low ROI Lost customers There is constant shift in priorities
(Ops)
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp : Third Degree | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 36
Typical measures in distributionDue Date Performance Inventory turnsAvailability Operating CostLead Time Quality
Control Menu
UDES PROPOSED BY FINANCE Too many decisions do not result with
the anticipated impact on bottom line Too often investments do not result
with the anticipated impact on bottom line
The priorities on investment requests constantly shift
Too often savings from outsourcing are not translated to more profits
Some of our products are not contributing to profit as expected
UDES PROPOSED BY OTHER FUNCTIONS Profit is not as high as it could be ROI is too low Cash flow is too low
In addition to the above 3, the current level of performance has contributing influence on many of the other functions UDE’s, so these are also acceptable here.
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp : Third Degree | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 37
Typical measures in financeProvide decision makers with the relevant information needed for
their decisionsProvide decision makers with feedback on their decisions
effectiveness
Control Menu
UDES PROPOSED BY PROJECTS Too often promised due dates are not
met Too often tasks take longer then
planned There are too many changes Too often resources are not available
when needed (even when promised) Necessary things are not available on
time (information, spec., designs, etc.) There are fights about priorities
between projects There are budget over-runs There is too much re-work
UDES PROPOSED BY OTHER FUNCTIONS Lost sales We pay too many penalties We are not competitive in some markets Our ROI is too low Too high costs of urgent procurements Too high staff turnover Poor due date performance (Ops) Too long lead-time (Ops) Too much rework (Ops) There are too many customer complaints Too often there is a need for field
upgrades/maintenance
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp : Third Degree | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 38
Typical measures in projectsDue Date Performance Throughput Operating ExpensesLead Time Quality
Control Menu
UDES PROPOSED BY MARKETING Our products are not differentiated enough Too many of our offers to the market are
not in line with the actual market needs Too many new product introduction
failures Our product’s effective market life is too
short There is a constant pressure to reduce
prices Too many marketing initiatives do not
result with the desired market impact Too often introduction of new products to
the market is late reaction We have conflicting priorities
UDES PROPOSED BY OTHER FUNCTIONS Lost sales Too long lead-times (NPD) Low due date performance (Ops, NPD) High over time (Ops, NPD) Too many defects (Ops) Too much re-work (NPD) Too much scrap (Ops) Reduced profit Too low ROI Lost customers Constant shift in priorities (Ops, NPD)
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp : Third Degree | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 39
Typical measures in marketingMarket share New markets createdBrand awareness Potential customers seeking our products & services (demand)
Control Menu
UDES PROPOSED BY SALES
Sales cycles are too long (the time it takes prospects to make a decision)
There is high pressure to reduce prices Often times our offer is rejected before it is
presented to the right decision maker Often times competition offers are
perceived to be of a higher value then ours Too often, even when we have good
reaction to our offer, the prospect rejects it (due to internal reasons)
We often promise things we know we cannot deliver
Our good past performance is often forgotten for repeated sales purposes
Often there is a need to do promotions (discounts)
UDES PROPOSED BY OTHER FUNCTIONS Constant shift in priorities (Ops) High pressure to reduce cost (UDE’s
that result from this) Very large number of initiatives for
new products/ services (leads to….UDE’s)
Poor due date performance (Ops) Low profitability High levels of redundant inventories Introduction of new products/services
prematurely (with bugs) New products jeopardize the sales of
existing products
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp : Third Degree | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 40
Typical measures in salesSales revenues ($) Sales volume (quantity)Rate of conversion of leads to customers
Control Menu
The Boot Camp is a “referral only” live-in workshop lasting for 8 intensive days If you do not know a Graduate,
you’ll need to meet one to obtain a referral before you can register: contact us for assistance with this▪ If you have completed a consulting
project with a ViAGO consultant, they can refer you
Visit www.blackbeltinthinking.com for more information, to ask questions or to register
Black Belt in Thinking Boot Camp | Copyright (C) 2012 ViAGO Limited 41