New Access to Resources

Potential Arctic Routes For Int’l Navigation• Most transit now destination

shipping but the potential for some int’l transshipping in the near future.

• Tourism shipping – steady rise • Routes:

– Bering Sea/Strait (fisheries)– Northwest Passage (NWP)– Northern Sea Route* (NSR)– Arctic Ocean (“over the top”)

*46 transits in 2012. *71 transits in 2013* 393 Permits in summer of 2013

Ship Traffic in the Arctic

Passenger Ships

Oil and Gas Transport

Fishing Vessels Cargo

Transport

Great Start

A bit more technical – however, Good Forecast

Forecast Changed – too Late *Royal Navy ice patrol ship frees Norwegian liner

Things could have been worse…

Bad Headwork

Poor Forecast

Bad Charts

What if this…

Happens here…

In these conditions…or worse

Or here…