vesuvius - emergency planning
TRANSCRIPT
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Mount Vesuvius:The Emergency
Planning Conundrum
Prof. David AlexanderUniversity of Florence
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Vesuvius,Napoli and theCampi Flegrei
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Flegreiancaldera
Circum-Vesuvian area
Vesuvius
Napoli
Somma
Sorrentine peninsula
Capri
Ischia
Pozzuoli
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Somma-Vesuvius volcanic edifice
• remnants of a broad caldera (Somma),within which there is a strato-volcano(Vesuvius) 1277 metres high
• eruption styles vary through severalorders of magnitude from Strombolian(mildly explosive) to Plinian (highlyexplosive)
• eruptions have involved a'a lava flows,pyroclastic flows, phreatomagmaticexplosions, lahars (volcanic mudflows).
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Eruptive
style
Volume of
ejecta (km3)
Eruptive column height (km)
Duration of
continuous blast (hrs)
Volcanic explosivity
index
Strombolian0.0001-
0.11-7 1-8 1-3
Vulcanian 0.1-1 7-15 1-12 3-4
Plinian 1-10 15-25 6-12 4-5
Ultraplinian 10-1000 25-50+ 12+ 5-8
Some characteristics of eruption styles
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• About 33,000 years of activity,with strongly varied phases.
• Partly quiescent from 79 to 1631.
• Major Vesuvian-style eruptionin 1631, with pyroclastic flows.
• Lesser intermittentactivity 1631-1944.
• 20th-century eruptions 1901-4,1943-4, then quiescence.
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AD 62 - earthquake: tectonic or volcanic?
MCS grade IX
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AD 79:Plinian eruptionwith pyroclasticflows due to thecollapse of the
20 km-higheruption column
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AD 79pyroclasticflow victim
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1631 Vesuvian eruptionand pyroclastic flow
4,000 dead in Portici
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1770s
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1794
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1901
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1944: end oflong period ofsporadic eruptionsand continuousalteration ofthe profile of thevolcanic edifice.
Castellammare diStabia (Stabiae)
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Vesuvius is themost heavilymonitoredvolcano in theworld:• seismicity• heat flux• tilt and swell• groundwater• gas emissions• acoustic signs
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Pertinent questions:-
• how long would the warning period beand how accurate a warning is possible?
• is the eruption scenario the right one?
• how long would a volcanicemergency last?
• therefore, what are the prospectsfor a successful evacuation?
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The Circum-Vesuvian area: demography
• 17 municipalities, population 650,000
• Naples, to the west, has pop. ofjust under one million and is emptyingout eastwards and westwards
• Portici has population of 80,000in 4.5 km2 - that is 18,000/km2.
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The caldera ramparts of Somma wouldprotect communities such as Pomiglianod'Arco to the north but not those tothe south and west, which are directlythreatened by volcanic blast effects.
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Westerlywinds prevailin the Naples area: ashfalls wouldprobably begreatest inthe denselypopulatedareas to theeast andsoutheast.
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To the south, southeast and eastup to 17,000 roofs would collapseunder the weight of volcanic ash.
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The maximum riskscenario involvespyroclastic flow(nuée ardente)
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0 1 2 3 4 5 km
Tyrrhenian
Sea
M t Vesuvius
Portic i
E rcolano
( and Herculaneum )
M t Som m a
Naples
Barra
Pom peii
Torre
del G reco
Torre
Annunziata
San G iuseppe
Vesuviano
M ain lava flow, pyroclastic flow
and lahar hazard areas
Densely
settled areas
Tephra
fa llout areas
What if this happened...?
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Lava flow hazards extend right down tothe coast and emanate from both the
central vent and subsidiary cones.
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Lava flows involve both a'a and pahoehoe(viscous rhyolitic and runny basaltic) lavas.
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Existing lava flows have all beengeologically dated: the rougher,more visible ones such as thesedate from the 19th century.
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Emergency planning issues:
• prevention and regulationof new development
• reduction and transferof existing development
• routeway congestion andimprovement of circulation
• warning and evacuation.
• safeguarding of cultural heritage
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Under thenational plan,evacuees wouldbe sent by car,bus, train andship to 16 otherregions of Italy,which wouldhave to providetemporaryaccommodationfor them.
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Vesuvio 99:dry run of evacuationof Somma Vesuviana5,000 peopleshipped to Abruzzofor Sunday lunch.
MESIMEX 2007European levelregional emergencysimulation exercise(emergency servicesonly)
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National Department
of Civil Protection
Mixed operations centres
(inter-municipal)
Municipal
operations centres
Provincial
prefectures
Mountain
community
associations
Provincial authorities
'Augustus'
system
Regional authorities
Rome
Naples
e.g.
TorreAnnunziata
(pop. 50,000)
Trecase(pop. 9,500)
Salerno
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Italian nationalgovernment
Campania regionalgovernment
Central control Devolution
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1 Scientific-technical - planning
2 Health, social assistance - veterinary
3 Mass media and public information
4 Volontary services
5 Materials and vehicles
6 Transport - traffic and access
7 Telecommunications
Nation
al to
pro
vinc
ial leve
lsEmergency Support Functions
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8 Essential services
9 Census of damage, people, things
10 Search and rescue operations
11 Local authorities
12 Hazardous materials
13 Evacuation logistics - recovery areas
14 Emergency operations centres co-ord.
Nation
al to
pro
vinc
ial leve
lsEmergency Support Functions
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Circum-Vesuvian evacuation
by sea southwards
northwards along Naples-Rome corridor
SE-NW along "Golden Mile"(very congested)
eastwards
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VesuVia Project:
• €30,000 per family to relocate outof the 'red' (maximum hazard) zone
• over the period 2003-55,600 families took up the offer
• "20,000 families haveexpressed interest"
• target level is 150,000 people(six times greater than at present)
• but young couples are being offeredincentives to move into the area!
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The cultural heritage question
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Besides thearchaeological sites
of Herculaneum,Pompeii, Stabiae
and Oplontis,there are 142
Vesuvian Villas,dating from1719-1840
Villa Campolieto, Ercolano
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Villa Prota, Torre del Greco Villa Pignatelli da Montecalvo
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Public buildingsat high risk:• 76 schools• 19 town halls• 9 medical centres• 7 other majorpublic buildings
Total: 111 buildings.
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Urban vulnerability valuesbuildings classified 'red':
• Pompei-Scafati.............8.4%• Ottaviano..................42.8%• Boscotrecase..............50.0%
• San Giuseppe Vesuviano...57.1%
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1985 Pozzuoli bradyseismic crisis:57,000 people permanently relocatedout of risk zone in six months flat.
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A town for 57,000evacuees constructedin only 6 months at
Monterusciello
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Some emergency preparedness lessons:
• emergency planning is limited by physical,cultural and conceptual constraints
• a major eruption of Vesuvius would instantly be a national and Europeanemergency
• the relationship between predictionand warning is absolutely critical here,especially with regard to timing
• the relationship between referencescenario and response is critical: wrongscenario equals inefficient response.
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Few areas of the worldhave such complexand intractable
volcanic problems.