velingrad, bulgaria october 21-25, 2006 nato arw: 'scientific support for the decision making...

Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006

NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector'

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Intelligent Scenario Development for CAXIntelligent Scenario Development for CAX

Institute of Mathematics & Informatics, Bulgarian Academy of SciencesInstitute of Mathematics & Informatics, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences ee--mailmail: : zlatogorzlatogor@@mathmath..basbas..bgbg

Zlatogor Minchev

Bulgarian Academy of Sciences

Center of Excellence in Operational Analyses

This publication is supported by NATO’s Scientific Division in the framework of This publication is supported by NATO’s Scientific Division in the framework of Science for Peace Program - Project SfP-981149 (2005-2007)Science for Peace Program - Project SfP-981149 (2005-2007)



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Theoretical Background

1. Е-R (Entity – Relationship) model - Chen, 1976

EmployeesEmployees ProjectsProjectsEmployee on ProjectEmployee on Project

Entities Set

Relations Set

Entities Setm n



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2. Systems Theory – Bertalanffy, 1950



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SCIP – Scenario Computer Interface Program



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Functional abilities

Main menu

Toolbar

Object’s coordinates



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Main menu



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‘File’



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‘Edit’



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‘Window’



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Rubberband tool

Objects Relations Sensitivity Diagram

Virtual Grid Selector tool

Toolbar



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Sensitivity Diagram



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Objects’ Characteristics Form



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Relations’ Characteristics Form



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File Format



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Excel Interoperability



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Scenario Example for Crises Management



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Sensitivity Diagram



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Ideas to add Intelligence in SCIP

• Better Relations’ EvaluationBetter Relations’ Evaluation

BA

w (w N) -Relation Weight



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‘‘w’ w’ Evaluation Evaluation

• Brainstorming

• Multi-criteria Approach

• Fuzzy Sets Implementation



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Multi-criteria Evaluation

• Multi-valued logic – Łukasiewicz, 1920

• Fuzzy Sets – Zadeh, 1965

• Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets – Atanassov, 1983



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Intuitionistic Fuzzy SetsIntuitionistic Fuzzy Sets



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Graphical RepresentationGraphical Representation



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Possible Applications of IFS in SCIPPossible Applications of IFS in SCIP

• w - A

• Interchange among A, A and A in accordance with your information

• Utilization of F, optimizing operator for uncertainty minimizing



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ww - - AA

• Create two scales for A and A that are filled up trough experts’ knowledge and/or brainstorming

true - A A - false



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Interchange among Interchange among AA,, A A and and A A in accordance with your in accordance with your

informationinformation

1. Create two scales for a and b that are filled up trough experts’ knowledge and/or brainstorming for things that you know, don’t know or are uncertain for you;

2. Substitute a and b with AA,, A A or or A A in accordance with 1.in accordance with 1.

3. Utilize IFS basic relations (see IFS definition) or IFS optimization (see next 3. Utilize IFS basic relations (see IFS definition) or IFS optimization (see next slide)slide)

true - a b - false



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Utilization of FUtilization of F,, optimizing operator for uncertainty minimizing optimizing operator for uncertainty minimizing

A (x) = { { xx, , A A ((xx) , 1- ) , 1- A A ((xx) ) | | xx E}; E};

A (x) = { { xx, , A A ((xx) , 1- ) , 1- A A ((xx) ) | | xx E}; E};

FF,, ( (AA) = { ) = { xx, , A A ((xx) + ) + ....AA((xx), ), A A ((xx) + ) + ....AA((xx)) | | xx E}, E}, , , [0, 1], [0, 1], + + 1, 1,

AA – fixed set, – fixed set, EE universe of disclosure, universe of disclosure, x x element from element from E E (see IFS definition).(see IFS definition).

(0,1)

(1,0)(0,0)

fA (x) - possibility

f A (x) - necessity

F,



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I-SCIP ContributionI-SCIP Contribution

• SfP 981149 Scientific Research

• TACOM SEE 2006 / Protection 2006 Scenario Development

• NATO MSG – 049 Scenario Development



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Conclusions

• Utilization of E-R model, systems theory and holistic thinking;

• Interoperability between different software products;

• Interactive work;

• General view and evaluation of the scenario theatre.



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QUESTIONS ?QUESTIONS ?

velingrad, bulgaria october 21-25, 2006 nato arw: 'scientific support for the decision making...

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