Death Rates VaryAmong Cars by MoreThan 700 Percent

Occupant deaths occur lar more oftenin some cars than in others. InsuranceInstitute lor Highway Safety researcherscomputed death rates lor 1985-87 carsand found that, among the 103 biggest.selling vehicle series, the one with thelowest death rale is Volvo's lour-door740/760, a midsize Specially car, with0.6 deaths for each 10,000 ofthese cars registered. The se­ries with the highest deathrate (5.2) Is the ChevroletCorvette, a small sports car.The Corvette's death rate is morethan eight times as high as theVolvo's (see table on pages 4-5).

For each vehicle series, rates werecomputed from the total number of occu­pant deaths and registrations that oc­curred in the three calendar years. 1986­88. (A vehicle series [s a family of carswithin a make that has the same wheel­base and a degree of commonality in con­struction such as body, chassis, etc.) Re­sults for individual 1985-87 series are pre-­sented only for those with at least 150,(XXlregistrations dUring 198&18 (1988 modelsaren't included because registrations arecounted midyear when new cars are stillbeing sold). Results lor all cars and foreach car size/body style group were coorpuled from death and registration countslor all vehicle series, regardless of thenumbers registered.

Car size is an important influencing(See 700% lllrialion, p. 2)

than 75,000 OCCII·

died in hi,hway,., wtrt they traotl·hflher dtGlh ra'n

..8ch higlwr?death rottl? Who'

rtfocuaud.­__e......

buarrarttt do;.IIIe •• POtu 4-SI~DOO"'­

'"'''IN am>n/'"

Many Cars Perform­ing Better (or Worse)Than Predicted

Actual death rates lor individual carseries tell only part of the story (seeDeath Rates Vary Among Cars by MoreThan 700 Percent) because they re influ­enced by the age and sex of the peoplewho drive them. as weU as by the size 01the cars. So Insurance Institute lor High­

way Safety researchers computed foreach of 103 popular car series a

predicted as well as an actualdeath rate, with the predictedrate taking into account thethree important factors influ­

encing the actual death rate. Theresearchers developed a regression

model relating actual death rates to carsize, driver age, and driver sex. Becausevehicle registration information cannotbe broken down by age and sex, the re­searchers' model uses information aboutthe drivers in the fatal crashes.

Specifically, the researchers estimateda nonlinear relationship between thedeath rates of individual vehicle seriesand their wheelbases, proportion of occu­pant deaths that occurred with driversunder 30 years old, and proportion 01male drivers. (A detailed explanation ofthe research methods is available fromthe Institute on request.)

From this model, the researchers coorputed a predicted death rate for each carseries using its actual wheelbase, propor·tion of young drivers, and proportion ofmale drivers. Then the researchers com-

(See Beffe,or IIbrse, p. 3)

---- - --- - --- - --- ---- ---- .- ._--- .. _-------- _. - - _. ~ - - - . -- -- - . - - - _. - - - - - - . _.. -----

2-1IHS Stams Reparl, Val. 24, No. II, November 25, 1989

700% Variation(Canl'd from p. /)

factor on death rates. Of the 10 individualvehicle series with the lowest death rates,three are large and six are midsize cars.Only one is a small car. Twelve 01 the 15cars with the highest death rates aresmall. The other three are midsize. Noneare large.

Large two-door cars are the size/bodystyle group with the fewest deaths per10,000 registered cars. The next bestgroup is large specialty cars, followed bylarge and midsize station wagons. Thegroup with the highest number of deathsper 10.000 registered vehicles is smallsports/specialty cars.

Death rates vary not only by car sizebut also within size and body style groups.Among small four.<Joor cars, for example,the Volkswagen Jetla has the lowest deathrate (1.1). The rate for the lour·doorChevrolet Chevette, another small car, isnearly four times as high (4.1).

The mix of occupant deaths betweensingle- and multiple-vehicle crashes variesconsiderably, too, with small cars usuallyhaving a higher proportion of their deathsin single-vehicle crashes, compared to

large cars. Chevrolet's Corvette has thehighest proportion of single-vehicle crashdeaths (83 percent) among all 103 car se­ries, and Oldsmobile's Cutlass Ciera sta­tion wagon has the lowest (13 percent).

Another important influence on deathrates, besides car size, is driver age. Carswith high percentages of fatal-erash-in­volved drivers who are under 30 years oldtend to have higher death rates. The sex ofthe driver is important, too. Cars with highpercentages of female drivers tend to havelower death rates (see table on pages l).7).

These three factors - car size and driv·er age and sex - explain some 01 the dif·ferences in death rates among cars. Butthey don't explain them all. The HondaPrelude, for example, has a relatively lowdeath rate (1.5), even though it's small andhas a relatively high percentage of driversunder 30 (4i percent). Its percentage ofmale drivers is about average (GO percent).

To account for the effects of car sizeand driver age and sex on death rates, In­stitute researchers used a regression mod­el with these three variables to compute apredicted death rate for each car series.Then they compared predicted and actualrates (see Many Cars Performing Better (orWorse) Than Predicted, page I).

IIHS SlOIUS Repo", 1bI. 24, No. II, Nooember 25, 1989-3

Better or Worse(Conl'd /rom p. I)

pared predicted death rateswith actual ones. Among 103vehicle series (1985-87 modelyears) for which actual andpredicted death rates werecomputed, 58 perfonned betterthan predicted during calen·dar years 198&88. Thirty-nineperformed worse. Six carshave actual occupant deathrates that match their predict­ed rates.

What's especially Interest­ing are the differences that in­stitute researchers found be­tween cars' predicted and actu­al death rates. This compari­son tells us how much betteror worse each of the cars isperfonning than we would ex·pect. given the car's size andthe age and sex of the drivers

Tht Ml400r IflSSQ// Sentro".t (om) tKtutJI. ocrupoll1 dtaIh roJe is 65 perttllJ /ofvtr Ilton InslIture resemt:Mrs predicted from i15 u:hHl~ and dlll:ers· age Dnd sa- be:sI al1lOllg all /(JJ car smes. 7tH> (oor-douOwCrolf'1 CheL't!nes (be!0UJ) octualrote 1$ J/6 perrell1h~ (lion ptedlCltd - by far the 1COrSI.

who are in its fatal crashes.Among all 103 vehicle series,the following nine perform farbetter than predicted aftertaking car size and the ageand sex 01 drivers inlo ac­count: Nissan Senlra two­door. Volvo 740/760 lour-<l001,Volkswagen Jetta lour-door,Ford Taurus station wagon.Honda Prelude, ChevroletCavalier station wagon. FordEscort station wagon, ToyolaCelica, and Toyota Cressidalour-<l001.

The following seven carsperform far worse than pre­dicted: Chevrolet Chevetlefour-door, Plymouth Reliantfour-door, Chevrolet Celebritytwo-door, Dodge Aries lour­door, Chevrolet Corvette,Chrysler leBaron lour-<loor,and Chevrolet Sprint two­door.

~/H5Sla"'s Repan, 1bI. 24, No. II, Naaember 25, 1989

Actual and Predicted Deaths per 10,000 Registered Passenger Can

LARGE

...... ....- Actu.I DtIf. from P,edlcl*t.... .... ..... --AI, " ..85-87

_Vor_"2 " ''''85-81 Chevrolet Capnce .. L7 ,..

85~7 Dodge Caravan .. .., ..8&07 Ford Aerostar 15 ..2 ""8&07 Chevrolet Astro Van 20 2.' S"AI, " '.78&07 Ford Taurus 07 .., ""8&07 Oldsmobile Cutlass CMlra " ..s ""8&07 """"""" """* " 20 ""8&07 c_~ .., L7 ""8&07 """'" 2.0 I' "".. ... •••8&07 Suban.r DtJGl 4WO 1.2 2.0 "'"8&07 """ """" 12 22 ""8&07 ....... OlJGL .. L7 I"

.. .. •••8&07 Mercury Grand Marquis ..2 .., ""'8&07 Buick EJectra .., .. '"8&07 Ford Crown Vldona .. I.' ""8&07 C/vysleI New Yor1uIr SIh Ave 15 1.2 ""8&07 Oldsmobile Delta 88' 15 .., ''''85~7 OldsmObile Ninety-E'Ohl 15 "585~7 ChllYl'Olet CapnceJlmpala 16 " ""86~7 BuidlleSabre' .., I' "".. '.7 '.785-87 Toyota C,esslda' " 19 ""85-87 Buick Cenlury 12 .., 25"85-87 Volvo 240 ..2 " ""86-87 Pontiac Gland Am3 ..2 1.9 ""85-87 Oldsmobile Cu~ass CI&fa .., 1.5 ""85·87 Chrysler LeBaron GTS " L7 ""B6~7 M9fcury Sabje .., 2.0 35%85-87 Pontiac 6000 1.3 L7 ,,%B6~7 Ford Taurus ... 20 30%86·87 Oklsmobile Calais3 ... ..9 ,,%B6~7 HondaAceord .., 1.7 ""85·87 Mmcury Topaz' .., 20 20%85·87 Oldsmobile Cutlass .., I' 2'"85-87 Chrysler New YOIker .., ,.,85·87 Plymouth Caravelle L7 '.4 21%85·87 Chevrolet Celebr~y L7 .., ,%85-87 Ford Tempo! ..,

"85-87 Dodge Lancer 19 2.0 5%85-87 Nissan Maxlma3 2.0 2.5 ""'85~7 Chevrolet Cavalier 2' ..9 21%85·87 _.600 2.' .., ,..85·87 Chrysler LeBaron 2.' 1.7 ""85-87 Pontiac Sunblrd 25 .., "'"85-87 Plymouth Reliant 2.' 16 "•.85~7 Dodge Anes 2.9 ..9 53%AI, 2.' 2285~7 Vokswagen JettaJ " 25 56%85~7 Mazda 6263 .., 2.0 ""85~7 Toyota Corona I' 2.' "'"85~7 _C~ 17 2.' 35%66~7 """ """', 1.6 27 ""8&07 """""""- 2.0 2.1 '"85~7 volksWagen GoIl2 2.0 2.' ""'8&07 Subaru OllGl Sedan 2.0 ,.,

""8&07 """'" omn 2.' 2.1 10%8&07 Reoauft AIi.a/'loe;Encorl 25 " 32%66~7 _"ool' 26 268&07

__M

2.' 2.' ""8&07 """"""" """""'" 32 2.5 ,..8&07 """"""""""""" " 1.9 "6%

lII/S SlalUS Report, 1bI. 24, Na. II, Naaember 25, 1989-5

1985-87 Models During 1986-88, by car Size and Body Style...... p,edlcItId ~ DIft. from P,",*,.... .... - --AI ••• 1.3

AI •., 2.2...., PonllaC Grand Pm 1.2 " """...., OIdsmobole Cutlass Ci&ra 12 ... 33"..., ---, 1.' ... ""..., ""'--""""'" 1., 1.' ,'"..., -- 1., 2.' ""..., -- " 2.' ,."...,~"""" 1.' 1.,..., ""'T...... 2.0 2.' ""..., -- ~o 1.' '"...,........, "'""' Am' Z1 2.' ""..., 'on!r- 2.' 2.' '"...,Chow... """"'" .. 1.5 ""..., -"-' 2' 2.2 ""..., Chow...c..- V 2.6 ."..., ChevrolM Morlle Car'cI .. ~, ""..., ........, ....... 2.' 2.' ""Aft .. 2.'

87 NlSS8I1 Sertlrl 1.' .., ""..., -- 1.' 3.' ""86·87 Toyotil Celoca 1.6 2.' ""..., -""'" '.3 2.' """87 Toyota CofoIIa 2.' 3.' ""85-87 Nl$S3f1 200SX 25 3.3 .."85·87 Renal,lh AlIianeeJEncote3 2.6 2.' ."86·87 Ford Esc;:on3 30 2.9 '"85·87 Dodge DaytOl'las 3' 32 '"85-87 Chevrol&l Chevene 3.' 2' ,."85-87 P1ymou1tl Tunsmo 3.' 2.6 ,."85-87 Chevrolet Spl'lnt .., 2.' ""85·87 ~ ChargerlShelby .., 3.3 ,.".11 U 1.285·87 Lincoln Town Cal 0.' 1.2 33"85·87 Cadillac FI'wood/Devllie 40 U 1.2 ."85·87 Cadillac FI'Wood/Devllie 20 U 1.' 21%85-87 Cadillac Brougham 40 ,. 1.2 ''''.11 3.1 3.185·87 Volvo 7401760 40" 06 ,.. 57%85-87 Aooi 5000 40 U " 35%85-87 BMW 3·Serles 20 2.6 3.' .."85-87 PonTIac Flfebird 3.' 3.' ""85·87 Ford Mustang ... 3.' ""85·87 Chevrolet Camara '.9 3.' """AI 3.' 3.'85-87 Pontaac Fiero 36 3. '""87 Honda CI\Iic CRX 3.9 '3 ""85·87 NIs5an 300ZX '.2 '.285·87 Chevrolet CofvetIe '.2 3.6 .."A-.. 'or All c.r. "

Note I - aD 1985-87 models 9qUlpped with automatic salery belts

Note 2 - some 1985-87 models~ with automatic safety belts

Note 3 - some 1987 models Bql)Ipp8d with automatIC safety belts

Note 4 - some 1987 models equ.pped with air bags

Note 5 - smaH number 01 1986-87 models equipped with air bags

6-IIHS SlaIUS Report, 11>1. 24, No. 11, November 25, 1989

Additional Information About Cars Listed on Pages 4and 5""'M6of, - - -WIIM'l»M Coumo '..... ---An "' :U71121 • 72 31

15-8' _Vor"" '" 424297 10 60 "15-8' Chevrolet Caprice '",,,.., 5 13 "15-" Dodge Caravan U' 441432 8 60 28

86-" FOfd Aefostar U9 245795 3 10 "15-8, ChevJoIet Astra van U' 237391 10 85 31.., 00' ""'" 11 50 ......, FOfd Taurus U16 192635 8 62 3885·87 Oldsmobile Cutlass Ciera 105 206594 9 54 1385·87 Chevrolet Cavalier '" 333760 30 .. "85·87 Chevrolet Celeb<ity 105 474547 8 66 3885-67 P1 mouth Reliant 100 158117 13 45 25A" " 1398753 " " 2785-87 Subaru DUGl 4WD 91 297623 22 53 .,86·87 Ford Escon 94 216394 U 66 2685-87 Subaru OUGL 91 202298 , 50 "AI '" 5332141 , 17 ..15-8, Mercury Grand Marqul$ ,,. 65933' , T1 2815-8, Buick Eleclra m 654103 , 63 3015-8, fOld Crown VIdOfia ,,. 649393 9 T1 36...., 0wY* Newy~ 5Ch '" 916408 , 50 "...., Oldsmobile DeIllI 88 m 504992 4 58 2915-8, 0Idsm0bIl8 N.-ty·Eight m 125090 11 64 3315-8, ~c.o-_ "' 91398' , 14 25...., BuOleSabre m """

, 61 33AI 00'

._," 91 OJ

15-8' Toyola Cf8$$lOa u" 22863< 20 66 "15-8, ....""""'" "" 1165207 10 " "15-8, _'40 104 194789 4 18 ......, PontI3C Grand Am 103 236809 " 66 .,as-87 Ok:Ismobile Cutlass CI&f3 105 1416518 " " "85-87 Chryslef leBaron GTS 103 354129 " "

.,...., Mercury Sable U16 20<331 " 16 3385-87 Ponllllc6000 105 858217 ,. 62 2686·87 Ford Taurus 10' 572652 " 15 32..." Oldsmobile CalaIs '03 152219 9 13 "86-87 Honda Aceord '02 711315 " 50 318S-87 M8rcury Topaz '00 324770 25 " 3685-87 Oldsmobile Cutlaas 108 351615 ,

" "85·87 Chrysler New Yorker '03 343965 ," 20

85-87 Plymouth Cara'l8lle '03 222930 " 36 "85-87 Chevrolet CeieOnty '" 1511862 " " 2415-" fordT~ '00 1136992 " .. 3215-" """" """" '03 257199 29 58 4085~' Nissan Maxtma '00 """ 30 " ..85~' Chevrole1 Caval..- '" 949226 26 50 3085-87

"""" 600'03 ".." " 64 ".,.., """'"' ""'"'" '00 290464 ,

" 22...., _So.- '" '46549 " .. ".,.., -- '00 ""25 4 " 2915-8, """"- '00 311880 " " 21AI .. 1311723 27 64 3515-8'

v__91 426045 33 " ..

15-" ...... '" 99 385292 " " 3915-8, T_ """"" 96 '''''' " 54 3285~' _C~ 91 400643 " 63 2486-" ford Escort 94 301139 26 10 ..15-8, Chevrolet Nova 96 561.12 25 .. 3115-8' VobWageo GotI 91 111.13 .. n 29as-81 Subaru DLtGL Sedan 91 2«318 " 52 4285-81 Dodge Omni 99 393063 21 " 3685-81 Renaun AJlianceJEncore 98 2595<41 " " "86-87 Hyundal Excel 64 359094 30 62 4585-87 Plymoult1 Horizon 99 462259 29 53 2185·87 Chevrolet Spectrum 95 257252 31 .. "15-" CheVrolet Chevette 91 235068 " .. "

/DIS Status Report, IbI. 24, Na. II, Nooember 25, 1989-7

...- -. .......,-- eou"" You.. -Al' '" ""'" • eo "Al' ,.. ..",., 32 .. II..., PQflbac Grand Pox ". ,.".. " 52 ..,.., Oldsmobile Cullass c ... '" 215330 " 68 "...., -- '02 183179 20 57 "".., ~"""'u '''' 0<"" " 63 ..".., -- ", ,,- 33 60 ..".., Buick Skytlawll '" 256783 38 50 ..".., ~""'" '" 500293 " 50 33".., Ford Tempo "" 360532 32 " ..".., -- ,'" 57=- 25 65 ..".., Pon~Gr.".;I Am >0, 614476 " 68 ..,,~, Ford 1l'lundlwtMfd ,.. 836119 33 " ",,~, o-e-.y '" 156198 " .. 38,,~, ",,"'"""'- ,.. 6760'56 30 65 ..,,~, 0-"""'- '" 796838 .. 52 "".., Chevrolet Monte Carlo '''' 515309 32 67 ",,~, """"" ",,"'" >0' ""260 38 56 56Al, 85 ....... .. " ..87 ....... """" 96 219194 59 63 50".., -"'..... 97 417450 " 60 ......, To~ota c.ra 99 "''''' .. 52 ..,.., _c.. .. 341379 37 60 ..".., Toyota Corolla 95 ""'" 53 63 "".., Nissan 200SX 96 "'220 " 70 57

"., Renau~ Alhance/Encore 96 247267 " .. 27...87 FOld Escort .. 601516 .. .. ""., Dodge Daytona 97 "'33' " 68 5185·87 Chevrolet ClwlYene .. 228112 35 52 35".., Plymouth Tuusmo 97 ,..... " .. "85·87 Chevrolet Sprint " 179729 30 60 "85-87 Dodge Chafg&liShelby 97 25'''' .. 63 57

.11 '" ""''' • " 3285·87 LiIlC01r'1 Town Car '" 628888 6 " "85-87 CadilillC Fl'woodlDevllle 40 '" 797011 , 50 2685·87 Cadillac fl'woodlDeville 20 '" 222238 , 51 3385-87 Cadillac Brougnam 40 '" 299773 , 73 22

.11 >0, "..... ., 7B ..85·87 Volvo 7401760 40 ", 240544 , 62 5385·87 Aud15000 40 '06 236559 " 0< 5685,87 BMW 3·Serles 20 '" 196049 38 B2 68as-81 Pontiac; Flrebird '" 505787 " " 6385-87 Ford Muslang '" 816331 50 " 5985·87 Chevrolet Camara '" 923385 " 79 68

." ",.....,

" " "85·87 Pontiac Fi&ro 93 378815 .. 68 "85·87 HOIlda Clllie CRX 87 332496 60 0< ..85-87 NlSsan 300ZX " ""97 " 79 6985·87 ChsvroIeI. CorYen, 96 161869 30 " 63

I A-.ge for All c.- IU' I ..878302 I 27 0 ..Wheelbase - length in inches

RegIStratIOn Counts - sum of vehicles registered in each calendar year

Percent Young - percent 01 deaths in cars with drivers under aoe 30

Percent Male - percent 01 deaths In cars with male drivers

Pe«:ent SIngle-Vehicle - percent of deaths in Single-vehicle crashes

SMALL

Special Issue Vol. 24, No, II, November 25, 1989

This special issue of Status Report focuseson death rales by car make and model.Other special issues have focused on thefollowing subjects:

Designing Safer VehiclesTruck Crash CongestionMaking Traffle Laws ~rkSeat Beh and Helmell...awsNlffSA: Safety RulesVehicle Size and Death RatesU.s. Sofety Acts

Seat Belt Use Laws

School Bus SafetySeat Belt Use Laws

Teenagers Driving

The Injury FocI BookAutomatic RestraintsTruck CrashesSmall Car HazardsDrunk Driving

24~, 19892112198823,6,1988

22:13,198122~, 1981221,1981

21011,19862It.12,1985

2It.5, 198519014.1984

19010.1984191,1984

18:18,198318:4,1983

1i:20.198211,18,1982

STATUS1005 NOlIh Glebe RoadArlington, VA 22201(103) 247-1500

f\.'Il1l, \ '\,( Ir-.."I1111111

'"1-::.1\\1\\\111) REPORT

[£litOI': James H, MooneyAs50dale Editor: ReI Tyler\\-riters: SIliron RMmunefl, Ka~ SteinerEditorial ,».slanls: Carlene Hughes, Loretta MonisoIlProductlOll: Sheila.licboo

The InJurllltt Institute lor Itigfl"'-ay Salety Is an Indepen­denl, nonpro(il. JCJefIlllk and tdutatlontl orpnlzation.lt isdedicated to m1uctng the lones - deaths, Injuries andproperty d.lmage - resultinB !rom cruhes onl!le ~Ioo 5hIgIrwJ)l. The lrutllute Is supported by tilt Amerlan Ill­IllIInCe ttigb.-ay Sakty A55ocWIon, the American murm~"lIYSIIey AIllaocf. the NalIoniI AuodItIoo olinde­prDdent Insulm 5IIefy A.uodItion and ~,J indlo.idwl

"""'""-CoIdcnU l1li)' be~ lIl'IM»t. Of mput. with ittri­......ISSN 00l8-988X