valuing plug-in vehicle air emission and oil consumption benefits jeremy j. michalek, paulina...
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Valuing Plug-in Vehicle Air Emission and Oil Consumption Benefits
Jeremy J. Michalek, Paulina Jaramillo, Mikhail Chester, Costa Samaras, C.-S. Norman Shiau and Lester B. Lave
2CMU EPP Advisory Board Meeting | 3-14-2011 Jeremy J. Michalek
ConventionalHybrid-Electric
Gasoline
Electricity
Power Convertor Engine MotorEngine &
MotorBattery
Pack- Small Large
Vehicle electrification
Battery Electric
Engine & Motor
Medium
Plug-in Hybrid Electric
CV HEV PHEV BEV
3CMU EPP Advisory Board Meeting | 3-14-2011 Jeremy J. Michalek
Associate Professor Jeremy MichalekEPP and Mechanical Eng.Vehicle design and life cycle implicationsAssistant Professor Jay WhitacreEPP and Material Science and Eng.Battery technologyProfessor Chris HendricksonCivil & Environmental Eng.Transportation and life cycle assessmentAssistant Professor Shawn LitsterMechanical Eng.Fuel cellsProfessor Francis McMichaelEPP and Civil & Environmental Eng.Battery technology, life cycle assessmentAssociate Professor Illah NourbakhshRobotics InstituteElectric vehicle conversionsGregg PodnarRobotics InstituteElectric vehicle conversions
Dr. Constantine SamarasRAND Corporation (EPP Alum)Policy assessment
Grace HeckmannMarket demand for alternative vehicles
Orkun KarabasogluLife cycle implications of driving cycles
Scott PetersonLife cycle air emissions, battery life, vehicle to grid
Apurba SaktiBattery design and cost modeling
Elizabeth TrautPlug-in vehicle design and charging infrastructure optimizationTugce YukselBattery degradation and thermal management
4CMU EPP Advisory Board Meeting | 3-14-2011 Jeremy J. Michalek
Benefits of PHEVs1. Greenhouse gas emissions
28% of GHG emissions from transportation (EPA)
2. Air pollution
22,000-52,000 deaths per year from air pollution (JAMA)
3. Oil dependency
Cost U.S. economy ~$0.5 trillion in 2008 (Greene)
5CMU EPP Advisory Board Meeting | 3-14-2011 Jeremy J. Michalek
How much can xEVs help?xEVs offset gasoline use
Reduces oil dependency
xEVs change emissions profile
Fewer emissions associated with gasoline production and combustion
More emissions associated with battery and electricity production
xEVs change location of emissions
Location doesn’t matter for GHGs, but…
Damage done by air pollution highly depends on where it is released (population density, etc.)
6CMU EPP Advisory Board Meeting | 3-14-2011 Jeremy J. Michalek
Location drives air pollution damage
7CMU EPP Advisory Board Meeting | 3-14-2011 Jeremy J. Michalek
DataCohon et al. 2010 NRC study “The Hidden Costs of Energy”
Quantify externality damages to human health, crops, buildings, etc.
$6M value of statistical life
Morbidity also accounted for
Argonne National Labs (GREET)
Vehicle efficiency, emissions, and design
Life cycle emissions from refineries, factories, etc.
National Household Travel Survey (NHTS)
Distribution of driving patterns in the U.S.
8CMU EPP Advisory Board Meeting | 3-14-2011 Jeremy J. Michalek
Lifetime emissions damagesEmissions damage reduction potential of plug-in vehicles
Optimistic: $1000 damage reduction over the life
Pessimistic: $6000 damage increase over the life
$0$2,000$4,000$6,000$8,000
$10,000
CV HEV
PHEV
20PH
EV60
BEV2
40 CV HEV
PHEV
20PH
EV60
BEV2
40 CV HEV
PHEV
20PH
EV60
BEV2
40
BASE CASEU.S. Avg. Grid Mix
OPTIMISTICZero-EmissionPower Plant
PESSIMISTICCoal Fired
Power Plant
Lifetime Damages from Life Cycle Emissions
VOCSO2PM2.5PM10NOxCOGHG
9CMU EPP Advisory Board Meeting | 3-14-2011 Jeremy J. Michalek
Ownership costs
Base CaseBest Case for Electrification
Worst Case for Electrification
Vehicle costsANL 2015
literature reviewDOE 2030
program goals**ANL 2015
literature review
Gasoline pricesAverage
(2008-2010)Max
(2008-2010)Min
(2008-2010)
Electricity pricesAverage
(2008-2010)Min
(2008-2010)Max
(2008-2010)
Battery Life12 years
(life of vehicle)12 years
(life of vehicle)6 years
** ANL calls DOE program goals “very optimistic”
10CMU EPP Advisory Board Meeting | 3-14-2011 Jeremy J. Michalek
Net life cycle costsOptimistic: Plug-in vehicles slightly less expensive over the life. Costs drive comparison, not damages
Pessimistic: Plug-in vehicles could cost much more while causing more damage
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
CV HEV
PHEV
20PH
EV60
BEV2
40 CV HEV
PHEV
20PH
EV60
BEV2
40 CV HEV
PHEV
20PH
EV60
BEV2
40
BASE CASEANL 2015 CostsAvg. Gas Price12 yr. Battery
Avg. Grid
OPTIMISTICDOE 2030 GoalsHigh Gas Price12 yr. BatteryHydroelectric
PESSIMISTICANL 2015 CostsLow Gas Price6 yr. Battery
Coal Electricity
Lifetime Costs and Emissions Damages
Damages
Electricity
Gasoline
Batt. Rplc.
Battery
Base Vehicle
11CMU EPP Advisory Board Meeting | 3-14-2011 Jeremy J. Michalek
Oil dependencyOil Supply Disruption Externalities estimated
at $0.11/gal (Brown and Huntington)
Not enough to change trends
Market Power US Monopsony effect:
$0.22/gal (Leiby)
Military spending: $75-$90 billion in 2009
(RAND) : $0.24-$0.28/gal
But… Spending is nonlinear:
Marginal reductions may have near-zero effect on military spending
Less than half of each bbl oil produced is used to make gasoline – large reductions require coordination
12CMU EPP Advisory Board Meeting | 3-14-2011 Jeremy J. Michalek
Cost of oil consumption
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
CV HEV PHEV20 PHEV60 BEV240
Externality Damages by Type
Petrol
VOC
SO2
PM2.5
PM10
NOx
CO
GHG
Total Externalities + Monopsony Premium (Base Case)
13CMU EPP Advisory Board Meeting | 3-14-2011 Jeremy J. Michalek
Other externalitiesRebound effect
Lower operating costs may encourage more driving Higher congestion costs
Higher accident rates
These externalities have higher associated costs than emissions (Delucchi)
Will range issues combat rebound effect?
14CMU EPP Advisory Board Meeting | 3-14-2011 Jeremy J. Michalek
Take awayEmissions damage reduction potential of plug-in vehicles Upper bound: Hydro
electricity BEV reduces damages $1000
over HEV
Lower bound: Coal electricity
BEV increases damages $6000 over HEV
Worth the cost? Damage reductions are small
compared to ownership costs Across most scenarios,
electrification is better only when it saves consumers money
If it’s cheaper, market will drive adoption
If it’s not, emissions benefits don’t justify the extra cost
Oil dependency Externalities,
monopsony effect, and marginal security spending not enough to tip the balance
Small is Beautiful More batteries more
green Large packs are
underutilized Extra emissions from
production, weight
HEVs and PHEVs with small battery packs are most efficient and robust
Offer a good solution across a wide range of scenarios
Reduce more GHGs per dollar spent
15CMU EPP Advisory Board Meeting | 3-14-2011 Jeremy J. Michalek
DecisionmakersFederal Decisionmakers
U.S. House and Senate
EPA
DOE
NHTSA
State and Local Decisionmakers
California CEC and ARB
Other states interested in Evs
Private Decisionmakers
Automotive manufacturers
Utilities
16CMU EPP Advisory Board Meeting | 3-14-2011 Jeremy J. Michalek
AcknowledgementsCo-authors Prof. Chris Hendrickson (CMU)
Civil & Environmental Engineering
Prof. H. Scott Matthews (CMU) Civil & Environmental EngineeringEngineering & Public Policy
Prof. Jay Whitacre (CMU)Material Science & EngineeringEngineering & Public Policy
Dr. Mikhail Chester (UC Berkeley)Civil & Environmental Engineering
Dr. Paulina Jamarillo (CMU)Engineering & Public PolicyTepper School of Business
Dr. Constantine Samaras (RAND) Dr. Ching-Shin Norman Shiau
(CMU/Dell)Mechanical Engineering
Scott Peterson (CMU) Engineering & Public Policy
Nikhil Kaushal (CMU) Mechanical Engineering
Richard Hauffe (Lockheed Martin)
Carnegie Mellon Green Design Institute
Vehicle Electrification Group
Design Decisions Lab
Support NSF CAREER Grant
#0747911
NSF MUSES Grant #0628084
Ford Motor Company
Toyota Motor Corp
CMU Climate Decision Making Center, NSF SES Grant #0345798
Teresa Heinz Scholars for Environmental Research Program
Steinbrenner Institute
BackupSlides
19CMU EPP Advisory Board Meeting | 3-14-2011 Jeremy J. Michalek
Breakdown of emissions damages
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
CV HEV
PHEV
20PH
EV60
BEV2
40 CV HEV
PHEV
20PH
EV60
BEV2
40 CV HEV
PHEV
20PH
EV60
BEV2
40 CV HEV
PHEV
20PH
EV60
BEV2
40 CV HEV
PHEV
20PH
EV60
BEV2
40
Vehicle Production
Battery Production
Gasoline Production
Electricity Production
Vehicle Operation
Breakdown of Externality Damages
Petrol
VOC
SO2
PM2.5
PM10
NOx
CO
GHGs
20CMU EPP Advisory Board Meeting | 3-14-2011 Jeremy J. Michalek
SensitivityExtensive sensitivity analysis on emissions and costs
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
CV
PH
EV2
0
BEV
24
0
CV
PH
EV2
0
BEV
24
0
CV
PH
EV2
0
BEV
24
0
CV
PH
EV2
0
BEV
24
0
CV
PH
EV2
0
BEV
24
0
CV
PH
EV2
0
BEV
24
0
CV
PH
EV2
0
BEV
24
0
CV
PH
EV2
0
BEV
24
0
CV
PH
EV2
0
BEV
24
0
CV
PH
EV2
0
BEV
24
0
CV
PH
EV2
0
BEV
24
0
CV
PH
EV2
0
BEV
24
0
CV
PH
EV2
0
BEV
24
0
CV
PH
EV2
0
BEV
24
0
BaseCase
Grid MixCases
Elec. Up-stream Cases
Oil Refining Cases
Oil Upstream Cases
Oil Source Cases
Assembly Cases
Manuf. Up-stream Cases
Manuf. Elec. Cases
Vehicle Data Cases
Li-ion Batt.Life Cases
Driving Lo-cation Cases
GHG Value Cases
Oil Premium Cases
Lifetime Emissions Damages w/ Sensitivity Analysis
VOCSO2PM2.5PM10NOxCOGHGsBase CaseLow CaseHigh Case
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
CV
HEV
PH
EV2
0P
HEV
60
BEV
24
0
CV
HEV
PH
EV2
0P
HEV
60
BEV
24
0
CV
HEV
PH
EV2
0P
HEV
60
BEV
24
0
CV
HEV
PH
EV2
0P
HEV
60
BEV
24
0
CV
HEV
PH
EV2
0P
HEV
60
BEV
24
0
CV
HEV
PH
EV2
0P
HEV
60
BEV
24
0
CV
HEV
PH
EV2
0P
HEV
60
BEV
24
0
CV
HEV
PH
EV2
0P
HEV
60
BEV
24
0
CV
HEV
PH
EV2
0P
HEV
60
BEV
24
0
CV
HEV
PH
EV2
0P
HEV
60
BEV
24
0
CV
HEV
PH
EV2
0P
HEV
60
BEV
24
0
CV
HEV
PH
EV2
0P
HEV
60
BEV
24
0
CV
HEV
PH
EV2
0P
HEV
60
BEV
24
0
CV
HEV
PH
EV2
0P
HEV
60
BEV
24
0
CV
HEV
PH
EV2
0P
HEV
60
BEV
24
0
CV
HEV
PH
EV2
0P
HEV
60
BEV
24
0
CV
HEV
PH
EV2
0P
HEV
60
BEV
24
0
BaseCase
Grid MixCases
Elec. Up-stream Cases
Oil Refining Cases
Oil Upstream Cases
Oil Source Cases
Assembly Cases
Manuf. Up-stream Cases
Manuf. Elec. Cases
Vehicle Data Cases
Li-ion Batt.Life Cases
Driving Lo-cation Cases
VehicleCost Cases
GasolinePrice Cases
Electricity Price Cases
GHG Value Cases
Oil Premium Cases
NPV of Lifetime Costs w/ Sensitivity Analysis
DamagesElectricityGasolineBatt. Rplc.BatteryBase VehicleBase CaseLow CaseHigh Case
21CMU EPP Advisory Board Meeting | 3-14-2011 Jeremy J. Michalek
Research direction1. Regional Assessment: Where is better to electrify
(grid mix, temperature, terrain, driving style, driving distance, etc.)
2. Battery Thermal Management: When worth paying the cost and energy to gain battery performance and life?
3. Infrastructure: Assess technical, economic and environmental implications of battery charging and swapping stations
4. Cell & System Design: Thin vs. thick electrode cells for different applications, combination on same bus?
5. Consumer Preferences: Willingness to pay for PHEV attributes
6. On Road: Hymotion Prius with sensors for road testing and validation, ChargeCar project, Toyota PHEV fleet