Values, Trends, and the Arab Spring

Mansoor Moaddel (PI)

Arland Thornton (Co-PI)Arland Thornton (Co-PI)

Stuart Karabenick

Linda Young-DeMarco

Julie de Jong

We thank the Office of Naval Research, the National Science Foundation, & the Ford Foundation for their support.

Overview

• Between the decline of the liberal age in 1940s-50s and the Arab

Spring, the Arab world experienced the upsurge of two major

cultural movements:

• Pan-Arab nationalism

• Islamic fundamentalism.

• The Arab Spring is a departure from extremism:

• Non-ideological movements for democracy & economic prosperity

• No Arab political unity & decline in the political significance of the army

• The Internet as an ideologically-neutral organizing tool

• A shift in people’s political and cultural values

• Who participated in the Arab Spring: The case of Egypt?

Methodology

• Survey data available

• Collected in face-to-face interviews using paper-and-pencil instruments

• Nationally representative samples using PPS

Sample size Dates collected Oversampling Response rate

Egypt 3,496 June-Aug 2011 Coptic Christians 93%

• Survey data pending

• Iran, Pakistan, Syria, Turkey

Egypt 1,677 Jan 2012 None

Iraq 3,000 Jan-Feb 2011 None 61%

Lebanon 3,034 March-July 2011 Druze 88%

Saudi Arabia 2,005 Jan-Feb 2011 Shi’a Muslims 73%

Methodology• Sample dispositions

Egypt

(2011)

Egypt

(2012

Iraq Lebanon Saudi

Arabia

Male 49% 52% 53% 59% 50%

University education 15% 15% 13% 28% 15%

Average age 38 40 36 35 34Average age 38 40 36 35 34

Religion: Not asked

Sunni* 40% 23% 75%

Shi’a* 31% 33% 25%

Druze 6%

Muslim (no sect spec) 86% 29%

Christian 14% 0.4% 26%

*Muslim sect was not reported in Saudi Arabia but 25% of respondents were from a

predominantly Shi’a city, and 75% were from predominantly Sunni cities

People’s Explanations for the Arab Spring:

Movements for democracy & economic prosperity

59%

51%

40%

50%

60%

70%

% r

ep

ort

ing

ma

in r

ea

son

fo

r th

e A

rab

Sp

rin

g

25%

9%

2% 2% 3%

15%

9% 10% 9%

4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Freedom &

democracy

Economic

equality &

prosperity

Islamic

government

Counter

Western

influence

Part of a

Western

conspiracy

Arab unity

% r

ep

ort

ing

ma

in r

ea

son

fo

r

Egypt Lebanon

% Relying “A great deal” or “Somewhat” on Satellite TV,

Internet, or Mobile as Sources of Information

49%

69%

74%

62%

49%50%

60%

70%

80%

14% 14%

10%

28%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Egypt Iraq Saudi Arabia

Satellite TV Internet Mobile

Trends in Values among Egyptians,

Iraqis, and Saudis

National Identity

Which one of the following best describes you?

1. I am an Egyptian, Iraqi, Saudi, above all

2. I am a Muslim, above all

3. I am an Arab, above all

4. I am a Kurd, above all

5. Other

National Identity:

Egyptian Muslims

81%

50% 48%

56%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

8%

1%

48%

2%

41%

3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Above all, I am Egyptian Above all, I am Muslim Above all, I am Arab

2001 2011 2012

56%59%

63%

57%

40%

50%

60%

70%

National Identity:

Iraq

23%

32%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Dec.-2004 Apr.-2006 Mar.-2007 Jul.-2007 Dec.-2008 Jan.-2011

% Above all, I am Iraqi

National Identity:

Saudi Arabia

75%

46%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

17%

9%

46% 44%

8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Above all, I am Saudi Above all, I am Muslim Above all, I am Arab

2003 2011

Trends in Values among Egyptians,

Iraqis, and SaudisReligion & Politics

1.Wishes of the people vs. Shari'a law

2.Characteristics of politicians

3.Secular politics3.Secular politics

4.Forms of government

Attitudes toward Secular Politics:

People’s Wishes Versus the Shari’a

(Forced choice, 2011)

72%

82%88%

56%

44%50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

28%

18%12%

44%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

A good govt implements only the law

of the shari'a

A good govt makes laws according to

people's wishes

Egypt Iraq Lebanon Saudi Arabia

Attitudes toward Secular Politics

Which is better in a politician?

(Forced choice, 2011)

78%81%

86%

43%

58%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

22%19%

14%

43%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Strong religious beliefs Strong commitment to national

interests

Egypt Iraq Lebanon Saudi Arabia

Egyptian Muslims:

People’s Wishes Versus the Shari’a

48%

31%30%

62%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0%

10%

20%

30%

A good government implements only

the shari'a law

(% strongly agree)

A good government makes laws

according to the people's wishes

(% strongly agree)

2000 2011

Egyptian Muslims: Attitudes toward secular politics

% Strongly agree/Agree

49%

91%

57%

93%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Egypt would be better if religion

and politics were separated

Democracy may have problems

but it's better than other forms

of govt

2011

2012

Iraq: Attitudes toward secular politics

% Strongly agree/Agree that Iraq would be a better

place if religion and politics are separated

53%

63%

69%

76%

69%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Dec.-2004 Apr.-2006 Oct.-2006 Dec.-2008 Jan.-2011

Saudi Arabia: Decline in support for the Shari’a

& in trust of religious institutions

69%

84%

46%50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

31%

46%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Shari'a law very important Trusting religious institutions a great

deal

2003 2011

Egyptian Muslims: Democracy vs. Strong head

of gov’t (% Very good)

68%

79%84%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2%

9%5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Democratic political system Strong head of government

2001 2008 2011

Iraq: % Strongly agree with different forms of

government

59%

55%53%

40%

50%

60%

70%

30%

11%

5%

22%

11%

6%

15%12%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Democracy Islamic government Strong head of

government

Army rule

2004 Apr-06 2011

Saudi Arabia: Democracy as the best form of

government (% Strongly agree/Agree)

58%

71%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2003 2011

Trends in Values among Egyptians,

Iraqis, and SaudisAttitudes toward gender equality

1. A wife must always obey her husband.

2. Men make better political leaders

than women do.than women do.

3. University education is more important for

boys than it is for girls.

Egyptian Muslims: Increase in support for

gender inequality (% Strongly agree)

47%

55%

68%

60%

73%

60%

50%

60%

70%

80%

47%

16%21%

25%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Wife must always obey her

husband

Men make better political

leaders

University education is more

important for boys

2000 2011 2012

Iraq: Decline in support for gender inequality

(% Strongly agree)

64%

71%

63%

69%

42%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

29%25%

33%

8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

A wife should always obey

her husband

Men make better political

leaders

University education is more

important for boys

2004 2006 2011

53%

61%

44% 44%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Saudi Arabia: Decline in support for gender

inequality (% Strongly agree)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Men make better political leaders A wife must always obey her husband

2003 2011

Participation in Demonstrations

against the Mubarak Regime

among Egyptian Muslims in 2011

Egyptian Muslims:

Measure of Participation• On the scale of 1 to 10, with 1 indicating minimum to

none participation and 10 the utmost participation,

where do you put the extent of your participation on this

scale?Participation % Participating

1 (Minimum to none) 60.1%1 (Minimum to none) 60.1%

2 6.4%

3 5.5%

4 5.3%

5 4.9%

6 4.3%

7 5.5%

8 4.6%

9 1.7%

10 (Utmost) 1.9%

N 3005

Mean (standard deviation) 2.7 (2.56)

Egyptian Muslims: Correlates of participationCorrelation coefficients

Demographics

Male .152**

Unmarried .115**

Formative years under Mubarak .089**

Employed .138**

SES .212**

Urban area .162**

Organizational membership factor

Religious/Political/Charitable membership .008Religious/Political/Charitable membership .008

Attitudes toward government

Trust in government -.110**

Rating of government -.057**

Sources of information

Radio .066**

Domestic TV .027

Foreign satellite TV .058**

Newspaper .212**

Internet .182**

Mobile .070**

** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed); *Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed)

Correlation coefficients continued

Gender segregation

Gender mixing doesn’t lead to moral decay .039

Liberalism factor

Gender equality/Social individualism/Secular politics .140**

Religiosity

Mosque/Church attendance .114**

Frequency of prayer -.001

Egyptian Muslims: Correlations of participation

(continued)

Frequency of prayer -.001

Identify as religious person -.049*

Importance of God in life -.042

Morality factor

Stealing/Violence/Telling lies .244**

Social-Psychological issues

Perceived control .103**

Insecurity .112**

Free will .205**

Attitudes toward the West

Cultural invasion by the West .006

Factor of British/Americans/French as neighbors .152**

** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed); *Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed)

Egyptian Muslims: Predictors of participation

OLS Regression

Demographics

Male .092**

Unmarried .049*

Formative years under Mubarak .052*

Employed .026

SES .054*

Urban area .095**Urban area .095**

Organizational membership factor

Religious/Political/Charitable membership -.018

Attitudes toward government

Trust in government -.035

Rating of government -.016

Sources of information

Radio .035

Domestic TV .018

Foreign satellite TV -.011

Newspaper .122**

Internet/Mobile .032** Regression coefficient is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed); * Significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed)

OLS Regression continued

Gender segregation

Gender mixing doesn’t lead to moral decay .041*

Liberalism factor

Gender equality/Social individualism/Secular politics .058**

Religiosity

Mosque/Church attendance .016

Frequency of prayer .008

Egyptian Muslims: Predictors of participation

(continued)

Frequency of prayer .008

Identify as religious person .013

Importance of God in life -.035

Morality factor

Stealing/Violence/Telling lies .219**

Social-Psychological issues

Perceived control .092**

Insecurity .111**

Free will .143**

Attitudes toward the West

Cultural invasion by the West -.016

Factor of British/Americans/French as neighbors .065**

Adjusted R2 .210

** Regression coefficient is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed); * Significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed)

Summary

1. Increase in national identity

2. Decline in support for the shari’a

3. Increase in gender equality (except in Egypt)

4. Predictors of participation in the Arab Spring:

(1) Male, single, formative years under

Mubarak, urban resident, higher SECMubarak, urban resident, higher SEC

(2) Newspaper readers (Internet users)

(3) More liberal, moral, higher perceived-

control, free will, insecure

(4) Less xenophobic

Thank you!Mansoor Moaddel (PI)

Arland Thornton (Co-PI)Arland Thornton (Co-PI)

Stuart Karabenick

Linda Young-DeMarco

Julie de Jong