valuation by tanushree seth. company snapshot global headquarters: bangalore, india founded: 1981...
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Valuation by
Tanushree Seth
Company Snapshot
Global Headquarters: Bangalore, India
Founded: 1981
Global Presence: 36 Sales Offices in 17 countries37 Global Development Centers
Employees: 49,422
LTM Dec ’05 Revenue/ 5 Year CAGR: $2,014 million/ 41%
LTM Dec ’05 Net Income/ 5 Year CAGR: $530 million/ 37%
Company Statistics
Employer Type: Public Company
Stock Symbol: INFYStock Exchange: NASDAQ
Market Share price: $74.98*
Key ExecutivesPresident, CEO, MD: N. R. Narayana MurthyNandan M NilekaniT. V. Mohandas PaiS. Gopalakrishnan V. BalakrishnanK. DineshS. D ShibulalSrinath Batni
*As of 4/14/2006
CEO, President and MD: N.R.
Narayan Murthy
Outline
• Overview• Investment Highlights
Business modelInvestment positives
• Addressing Key market challenges: Risks• Valuation
Estimated growth rates of 30% and 25%• Comparable company analysis• Recommendation
Overview
Smart investments In 1999, the firm became the first Indian company to
list on NASDAQ In 2002, Infosys started a recruiting and marketing
blitz The firm registered sales of $740 million, up 50
percent over the previous year, 2002In 2004, , the firm hit its first billion
Overview
The U.S. dream team
The company turned its attention to the U.S. consulting market in April 2004, forming Infosys Consulting
Stephen Pratt, who was named CEO of the subsidiary; Romil Bahl, former head of EDS' consulting practice; Pal Cole, former head of global operations at CGE&Y; and Raj Joshi, former CEO of Deloitte Offshore.
In April 2004, the publication eWeek.com pointed out that the move was a step toward competing in the U.S. consulting market against the big guys like Accenture.
Moving forward
In 2003, Infosys launched a business-processing subsidiary, Progeon, and secured a five-year, $30-million contract from U.S. mortgage firm GreenPoint.
In November 2004, Infosys and Microsoft announced an enterprise IT transformation initiative
In December 2003, the firm announced its intentions to acquire Expert Information Services, an Australian IT services
firm, for around $23 million.
Infosys Work Culture
Open-door culture
Hard work, lots of passion
A piece of heaven in Bangalore
Investment HighlightsLarge, Expanding Addressable Market
Highly-evolved Global Delivery Model
Rapid Differentiation
Scalable Execution
Exceptional Financial performance
Large, Expandable Addressable Market
Offshore Outsourcing is a Mega Trend
Outsourcing benefits: Convert fixed costs to variable Reduce TCO, enhance ROI Improve competitiveness
Offshore benefits: Deliver high quality at great value Highly scalable with no foreseeable
supply constraints Proven track record Addressable market has increased
Source: Infosys
$606.00 bn
$18.00 bn
$728.00 bn
$51.00 bn
0
100
200
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CY 2004 CY 2007
Corporate ITServicesSpending
OffshoreOutsourcing ITServicesSpending
India: #1 Offshore Destination
The India Advantage:
Strong Track Record
• High quality delivery
• Significant costs benefits
• Strong government support
• Mature industry
• Man Power
• Education system
• 24 x 7 working model advantage
Source: Infosys: IDC Offshore Best Practices Enterprise Survey, 2004
80%
20%17% 17%
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India Canada China Ireland
Corporate Executives’ Preferred Destinations for Offshore IT Services
Infosys is a Premier Global IT Services Firm
Key competitive advantages
• Extensive domain knowledge and expertise
• Comprehensive offerings• Long-term relationships with blue chip
clients• Proven Global Delivery Model• Execution excellence• Competent leadership and management
team
Source: Infosys and Gartner 2004
$294.00 mm
$2,014.00 mm
0
500
1000
1500
2000
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LTM Sep ' 00 LTM Sep '05
Infosys Revenue
5 year CAGR (LTM Dec 00-LTM Dec 05)
Global IT Services 5%
India IT Exports 29%
Infosys 41%
Business Model:
Highly-evolved Global Delivery Model
Highly-evolved Global Delivery Model
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3
Client Requirements
Infosys Delivery
Run the
business
Grow the business
Transform the business
GDM GDM+ GDM+ Consulting
Infosys’ Global Delivery ModelManagement
Consulting
Business Process Management
IT Outsourcing
Systems Integration
Technology Consulting
Technology-enabled BPR
Enterprise Solutions
Application Development and Maintenance
Software Engineering
People|Organization|Infrastructure|Process|Quality
Infosys Global Delivery Model
1981 ____________
1996 ______________
2001 ________________
2005 ________
Differentiation within the IT industry
Uniquely Positioned in Global IT Services and Consulting
IN PROCESS• Consulting + Solution mindset• Build stronger brand• Strengthen Board-level relationships
NEED TO:• Replace resources• Overcome “offshore-is-cost-center” mindset• Combat revenue cannibalization• Provide seamless sales and delivery• Reduce SG&A
Applying GDM to Consulting
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TraditionalConsulting
Model
INFOSYSconsulting
Business Change
IT Implementation
Significantly lower total cost of engagementLower IT implementation cost = flexibility in solution deliveryGreater ability to invest in managing business change
----------------------------------------------------- Client Budget
35% lowering total cost
-------|
Drivers of ScalabilitySuperior Talent Management
World Class Processes
and Systems
Flexible Organization
Structure
Modular and Robust Global Infrastructure
SCALABLE EXECUTION
LEADS TO
Scalable ExecutionSuperior Talent Management:
Hiring the Best
Able to simultaneously evaluate 10,000 people across 7 cities in India
Augmenting talent through new geographies China, Eastern Europe
Supplementing with experienced local hires Currently hiring people 59
nationalities
World Class Processes and Systems
Quality par excellence: Benchmarked to Global Standards such as
EFQM
Award-winning Knowledge Management Processes
PRIDE 2004 Asian MAKE Award
Scalable Execution
Flexible Organization Structure
Integrated platform for delivery of end-to-end solutions from Consulting to BPM
Self-governed business units By domain By Market By Service
Modular and Robust Infrastructure
37 Global Development Centers (“GDC”)
Ability to rapidly scale new engagements
Flexibility to distribute engagements and capacity across centers worldwide
Exceptional Financial Performance
Superior Revenue Growth
Sustained Industry-leading Profitability
Addressing Key Market Challenges
ChallengesCompetitive
• Pricing
• Onsite/offshore effort
• Investment in sales and marketing
Economic
• Wage inflation
• US$/Rupee exchange rate
Infosys Strategy• Continue to penetrate high value-
add segments
• Leverage GDM+
• Enhance internal productivity
• Leverage economies of scale and brand
• Move to variable salary structure and role-based compensation
• Proactively hedge currency exposure
Valuation
Inputs:
Current EBIT = $491,000,000.00 Current Interest Expense = $0.00 Current Capital Spending $186,000,000.00 Current Depreciation & Amortization = $66,000,000.00 Tax Rate on Income = 14.66%Current Revenues = $1,592,000,000.00 Current Non-cash Working Capital = $302,000,000.00 Chg. Working Capital = $152,852,304.00 Cash and Marketable Securities $688,000,000.00 Value of equity options issued by firm = $52,000,000.00 Book Value of Debt = $180,000,000.00 Book Value of Equity = $1,253,000,000.00
Valuation
Market Value per share= $75Number of shares outstanding= 274,530,000Market Value of Debt= $180,000,000Length of extraordinary growth period= 10 yearsBeta of the stock= 2.03Risk Free rate= 4.86Risk Premium= 6.60%Cost of Debt= 5.63%
Estimated Growth= 30%
Valuation
Outputs:Return on capital= 27.20%
Reinvestment Rate= 11%
Cost of Equity= 18.26%
Equity/(Debt+Equity)= 99.13%
After-tax Cost of debt= 4.80%
Debt/(Debt+Equity)= 0.87%
WACC: 18.14%
Valuation
Current EBIT * (1 – tax rate) $419,019,400
- (Capital Spending – Depreciation) $120,000,000
- Change in WC $152,852,304
Current FCFF: $146,167,096.00
NPV of FCFF
EBIT * (1 - tax rate)
2006
$586,198,084.13
2007
$820,077,050.95
- (CapEx-Depreciation) $167,877,120.00 $234,856,061.83
-Chg. Working Capital $120,490,752.00 $168,563,670.27
Free Cash flow to Firm $297,830,212.13 $416,657,318.85
Present Value $252,096,381.22 $298,520,895.88
NPV of FCFF
EBIT * (1 - tax rate)
2010
$2,245,357,256.2
2011
$3,141,200,912.8
2012
$4,394,464,688.31
2013
$6,147,750,631.7
- (CapEx-Depreciation) $643,031,971.19 $899,586,294.92 $1,258,499,636.53 $1,760,610,787.5
-Chg. Working Capital $461,524,511.31 $645,661,714.74 $903,265,243.03 $1,263,646,396.6
Free Cash flow to Firm $1,140,800,773.7 $1,595,952,903.2 $2,232,699,808.75 $3,123,493,447.6
Present Value $495,677,391.45 $586,958,282.56 $695,048,899.58 $823,044,817.93
NPV of FCFF
EBIT * (1 - tax rate)
2014
$8,600,555,587.86
2015
$12,031,970,854.09
Terminal Year
$12,633,569,396.79
- (CapEx-Depreciation) $2,463,052,237.07 $3,445,750,966.40 $3,158,392,349.20
-Chg. Working Capital $1,767,810,981.38 $2,473,125,135.49 $0.00
Free Cash flow to Firm $4,369,692,369.41 $6,113,094,752.19 $9,475,177,047.59
Present Value $974,611,675.13 $1,154,090,149.91
NPV of FCFF
Present Value of FCFF in high growth phase = $6,052,135,216.05
Present Value of Terminal Value of Firm = $13,612,066,744.99
Value of the firm = $19,664,201,961.04
Cash and Marketable Securities = $688,000,000.00
Market Value of outstanding debt = $180,000,000.00
Market Value of Equity = $20,172,201,961.04
Value of Equity options issued by the company = $52,000,000.00
Market Value of Equity/share = $73.29
Market Value at an estimated growth rate of 25%
Present Value of FCFF in high growth phase = $ 4,627,111,697.12
Present Value of Terminal Value of Firm = $ 8,458,660,426.31
Value of the firm = $ 13,085,772,123.43
Cash and Marketable Securities = $ 688,000,000.00
Market Value of outstanding debt = $ 180,000,000.00
Market Value of Equity = $ 13,593,772,123.43
Value of Equity options issued by the company = $ 52,000,000.00
Market Value of Equity/share = $ 49.33
Firm is overvalued
Competitive Landscape
Infosys Technologies (INFY)Competitors:
• Wipro (WIT)• HCL Technologies Ltd.• Satyam Computer Services (SAY)• Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp.• Syntel Inc.• Tata Consultancy Services Ltd.• i-flex• Patni Computer Systems Ltd.
Comparable company analysisShare Price
Ticker Company nameSharePrice*
% of 52 week high
Equitymarket cap (2)
Bookvalue Cash and
SymbolIndian IT Services
vendors equivalents
($/shr) (%) ($MM) ($MM) ($MM)
INFYInfosys Technologies
(INFY) $75.10 90.1% $20,616.8 $1,639.0 $969.0
WIT Wipro (WIT) $14.50 93.6% $20,649.3 $1,574.6 $773.8
629489HCL Technologies
Ltd. $13.47 85.0% $4,335.6 $840.8 $441.8
SAYSatyam Computer
Services (SAY) $38.71 87.0% $6,268.4 $914.8 $472.0
*Share price as per 4/10/2006(2) Includes in-the-money outstanding options, warrants and convertible securities, treasury-adjusted. Enterprise value is market
capitalization plus total debt and other value, less cash and equivalents.
Comparable company analysis
Company name Cash % Total Debt Enterprise Revenue EBITDA
Indian IT Services vendorsof market
cap Value (2) FY 07 FY 08 CY 06 CY 07
(%) ($MM) ($MM) ($MM) ($MM) ($MM) ($MM)
Infosys Technologies (INFY) 4.7% $0.0 $19,660.8 $2,622.5 $3,320.0 $846.7 $1,055.9
Wipro (WIT) 3.7% $32.3 $19,907.8 $2,886.8 $3,613.7 $689.0 $841.3
HCL Technologies Ltd. 10.2% $41.2 $3,937.5 $1,117.8 $1,418.0 $255.4 $319.1
Satyam Computer Services (SAY) 7.5% $16.9 $5,834.2 $1,343.6 $1,703.2 $300.1 $377.8
(2) Includes in-the-money outstanding options, warrants and convertible securities, treasury-adjusted. Enterprise value is market capitalization plus total debt and other value, less cash and equivalents.
Comparable company analysis
Company name Enterprise Value/Revenue Enterprise Value/EBITDA
Indian IT Services vendors FY 07 FY 08 FY 07 FY 08
(x) (x) (x) (x)
Infosys Technologies (INFY) 7.5 x 5.9 x 23.2 x 18.6 x
Wipro (WIT) 6.9 x 5.5 x 28.9 x 23.7 x
HCL Technologies Ltd. 3.5 x 2.8 x 15.4 x 12.3 x
Satyam Computer Services (SAY) 4.3 x 3.4 x 19.4 x 15.4 x
Comparable company analysis
Company name Earnings per share Price/Earnings Long-term PEG ratio
Indian IT Services vendors FY 07 FY 08 FY 07 FY 08 Growth rate FY 07 FY 08
($/shr) ($/shr) (x) (x) (%) (x) (x)
Infosys Technologies (INFY) $2.38 $2.87 31.6 x 26.2 x 29.4% 1.1 x 0.9 x
Wipro (WIT) $0.38 $0.46 37.9 x 31.6 x 23.4% 1.6 x 1.4 x
HCL Technologies Ltd. $0.54 $0.62 25.2 x 21.6 x NA NA NA
Satyam Computer Services (SAY) $1.54 $1.85 25.2 x 20.9 x 21.5% 1.2 x 1.0 x
Recommendation:Buy at low
Thank you!