valentin bartra - vulnerability to climate changevalentin bartra - peru 72 what about greenhouse...

vulnerability & Adaptation Nov. 2003

Valentin Bartra - Peru 1

Vulnerability to Climate change - Priorizing Adaptation”

Policy Options in Peru and the Andean region

Valentin Bartra´Instituto Lex Terrae´, Lima, Perú

Milan, Italy Nov 2003



•• Vulnerability to MonsoonVulnerability to Monsoon--like like flooding during the increased flooding during the increased El Niño / La Niña and other El Niño / La Niña and other nefarious climatic effects has nefarious climatic effects has become a painful reality. become a painful reality.



• It has become a dictum to adapt or to perish.



SOURCE : INDECI 2002

PNEUMONIA DEATHS AFFECTED HOUSINGTOTALLOSS

CROPSDESTROYED

HAS.

TOTAL 963 76 (*) 196,210 27,210 382 29,053 (**)

PRESIDENCIA DEL CONSEJO DE MINISTROS CENTRO DE OPERACIONES DE EMERGENCIA

INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE DEFENSA CIVIL COE - LIMA - PERÚ

UNUSUAL COLD SPELL AGO 2002



• Last Niño in 1998, represented my country, Peru, a loss of aprox. $1,800 MM + valuable lives and infrastructure.



SOURCE : INDECI 1998

Death AFFECTED HOUSINGTOTALLOSS

CROPSDESTROYED

HAS.

TOTAL 366 502,461 93,691 47,409 131,000

PRESIDENCIA DEL CONSEJO DE MINISTROS CENTRO DE OPERACIONES DE EMERGENCIA

INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE DEFENSA CIVIL COE - LIMA - PERÚ

EL NIÑO TOLL 1997-1998

BRIDGES

344

ROADSkM

944


Valentin Bartra - Peru 14Fuente: Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

CGCM (INC-CTL) Promedio para un Periodo de 61 - 81 Años

Precipitación (mm/dia) - ANUAL



Precipitación (mm/dia) - ENERO





Precipitación (mm/dia) - JULIO




Temperatura diaria maxima(°C)

Temperatura diaria mínima (°C)

ANUAL



(INC-CTL) Promedio para un Periodo de 61 - 81 Años



ENERO






JULIO



•Peru is responsible for only 0.4% of global GHG emissions,



• neighbouring countries adding to 300 million people, emit an aggregate of 4.3%, yet we suffer the consequences of aggravated and intense climatic phenomena like El Niño / La Niña



• Damages and losses due to severe climatic events are real. Destruction of Coastal areas, crops and fisheries, diseases in epidemic proportions add up to huge economic loss.



Different views• IPCC- atmospheric science• Risk hazard community• Rural development• Social development



Vulnerability• Tropical glacial studies since

1967• (corporación peruana del

Santa)


Valentin Bartra - Peru 43Nevado del HuascaránHuaraz, Perú

Laguna de LlanganucoHuaraz, Perú



• Instituto Geofísico del Perú igp runs a station for the last 80 years…

• Mantaro River Basin



Vulnerabilidad



-2

-1

0

1

2

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE

0.25°C / decade

°CYears

-2

-1

0

1

2

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00

MINIMUM TEMPERATURE

-0.04°C / decade

°C

-2

-1

0

1

2

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00

AVERAGE TEMPERATURE

0.11°C / decade

°C

TEMPERATURE TENDENCY, HUANCAYO MOVING AVERAGES, 12 MONTH

Years

Years



Adaptation in The Andes• Thousand of years of adptation• Small changes… altered crop seasons…• Local ingenuity• Development vision vs. Ancestral cultures• From shock and imposition to cooperation• At the end it gets us all. The poor and

isolated suffer more…



participation• It is everyone´s problem …• All levels of Goverment• Institutions• Civil society



Regional Actions• Adverse Climate change effects is a global

phenomena, no political borders limit itseffects.

• Adaptation measures can be more effective if designed and implementedregionally.

• Regional centers can leverage ML resources better.



funding

• Special climate change fund• Least developed countries fund• Adaptation fund



Market instruments

• Reverse perverse auction [rpa]!• Guarantees sustained

development?• Real and permanent GHG

reduccion?



linkages

• Desertification• Melting tropical glaciars• Sustained development• Water ( 2003)



What About Greenhouse Gases!

• The climate is changing, our planet is getting warmer… there is no other place to go…

• Extreme climate events affects us all. This is a good and solid ground for solidarity…

• We want to solve the global climate problem with benefits going to all…if not, it will not last!!

• Triple win: win- win –win.



“Our lifestyle is not up for negotiation…” is not up to you to decide … Nature has the last word …

• Billions of eyes and ears, let the people be part of the compliance verification…

• Does the so-called precautionary principle offer an opportunity?



Non-Annex 1 Guidelines

• Mandatory:– National GHG Inventory (IPCC guidelines)

• Optional:– National Circumstances– Vulnerability and adaptation assessment– Research and systematic Observation– Cross sectoral policies



unfccc

• Art. 4.8• Art. 4.9



Statutesthe power of the law…

• Constitutional mandate• International treaties• Compensation for

damages and loss.



• Thank you!!

If you are interested in a copy of this presentation please leave your business card.

If your wish to contact me or need further information:

[email protected]



Special Collaborators• INDECI• SENHAMI• CONAM• Dr. Pablo Lagos IGP• Dr. Benjamin Morales Arnao• Carlos Velazco

valentin bartra - vulnerability to climate changevalentin bartra - peru 72 what about greenhouse...

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