1. Adaptation to Climate Change mainstreaming into sector policies of the Baltic Sea Region 29.04.2014 Warsaw, Poland CBSS-Baltic 21 Roundtable Climate Change Adaptation in the Baltic Sea Region Valdur Lahtvee, SEI Tallinn Centre www.sei-international.org

2. Latest milestones of adaptation policy for Baltic Sea Region (BSR) European climate adaptation platform (Climate- ADAPT) launched in March 2012; EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change adopted in April 2013; BaltAdapt Project: Baltic Sea commenced in September 2013,with Baltadapt Strategy for adaptation to climate change in the BSR and Action Plan IPCCC WGII Report on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability released in March 31st, 2013 valdur.lahtvee@seit.ee 3. IPCC WGII Report Climate Change 2014:Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability The report by IPCC Working Group II brings together the latest knowledge on the impacts of climate change, the vulnerability and exposure of humans and the natural world to these impacts, and adaptation to climate change. The report is the second of four reports that together will form the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report. The first report, on the physical science basis of climate change, was finalized last September. valdur.lahtvee@seit.ee 4. SEI Contribution to the IPCC AR5 WGII Report Dr. Richard Klein, CLA ch 16: Adaptation opportunities, constraints and limits Dr. Lisa Schipper, LA ch 21: Regional context Number of authors: 309 Number of countries represented: 70 valdur.lahtvee@seit.ee 5. IPCC AR5 WGII: Scenarios for Global Temperature Change valdur.lahtvee@seit.ee 6. Climate Risks Scenarios 2014 valdur.lahtvee@seit.ee 7. Climate Risks Scenarios 2001 (AR3) valdur.lahtvee@seit.ee 8. Risks and adaptation potential:Europe valdur.lahtvee@seit.ee 9. Key messages from AR5 valdur.lahtvee@seit.ee Climate change over the 21st century is projected to increase displacement of people (medium evidence, high agreement). Climate change can indirectly increase risks of violent conflicts in the form of civil war and inter- group violence by amplifying well-documented drivers of these conflicts such as poverty and economic shocks (medium confidence). 10. Key messages from AR5 valdur.lahtvee@seit.ee The impacts of climate change on the critical infrastructure and territorial integrity of many states are expected to influence national security policies (medium evidence, medium agreement). Throughout the 21st century, climate-change impacts are projected to slow down economic growth, make poverty reduction more difficult, further erode food security, and prolong existing and create new poverty traps, the latter particularly in urban areas and emerging hotspots of hunger (medium confidence). 11. Key messages from AR5 valdur.lahtvee@seit.ee Adaptation is place and context specific, with no single approach for reducing risks appropriate across all settings (high confidence). A first step towards adaptation to future climate change is reducing vulnerability and exposure to present climate variability (high confidence). 12. Key messages from AR5 valdur.lahtvee@seit.ee Poor planning, overemphasizing short-term outcomes, or failing to sufficiently anticipate consequences can result in maladaptation (medium evidence, high agreement). Greater rates and magnitude of climate change increase the likelihood of exceeding adaptation limits (high confidence). 13. Mainstreaming CC Adaptation valdur.lahtvee@seit.ee WHY The latest information from EU research estimates that failure to adapt to climate change will cost 100bn a year in 2020, increasing to 250bn in 2050 Each euro spent on flood protection could save six euros in damage costs. Floods caused direct economic losses of more than 90 billion between 1980 and 2011 HOW Mainstreaming means to integrate adaptation objectives, strategies, policies, measures or operations such that they become part of the national and regional development policies, processes and budget at all levels and stages. 14. Mainstreaming CC Adaptation valdur.lahtvee@seit.ee STEPS TO CONSIDER - raise the understanding of the CC and adaptation, - identify how climate change will affect specific areas, -inform about the essential elements with regard to climate change as well as sustainable development, -plan relevant actions for increased resilience -support knowledge transfer from the global to the local level and trans-nationally, -enhance capacities to deal with the issue of climate change in a cooperative, integrated and sustainable manner -always consider climate resilience in mind when planning and/or investing 15. National Adaptation Strategies 2013 valdur.lahtvee@seit.ee National adaptation strategies in16 of 33 EEA countries: (AT, BE, CH, DE, DK, ES, FI, FR, HU, IE, LT, MT, NL, PT, SE, UK) 16. BaltAdapt Baltadapt project developed a transnational climate change adaptation strategy for the Baltic Sea Region, which focuses on the sea and the coastline. The Strategy and its accompanying Action Plan were officially launched and presented during the Baltadapt Conference "Adaptation to Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region" in Riga, Latvia, 3-4 September 2013 http://www.baltadapt.eu/index.php?option=com_ content&view=article&id=93&Itemid=224 valdur.lahtvee@seit.ee 17. BalticClimate The BalticClimate toolkit is an empowering knowledge transfer instrument for actors on the local and regional level who are not necessarily the experts on climate change, but who have an important role to play in the preparation, financing and decision making related to the implementation of climate change measures: policy makers, spatial planners and business people. Toolkit is available in 6 languages: ENG, BYL, DEN, GER, EST, LAT, LIT, NOR, POL, RUS, FIN, SWE http://www.toolkit.balticclimate.org/en/home valdur.lahtvee@seit.ee 18. Mainstreaming climate adaptation in ESI Funds 2014-2020 Agreement between MS to allocate 20% of financing of climate related activities incl. adaptation Implementation not as good as was expected e.g. Estonia declared in its revised OP for ESI Funds that 17, 72% of finances are allocated for climate action valdur.lahtvee@seit.ee 19. Useful sources for climate change adaptation related information http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/transnational- regions/baltic-sea/adaptation-actions http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/brief/eu/index_ en.htm http://www.baltadapt.eu/ http://mayors-adapt.eu/ http://www.toolkit.balticclimate.org/ http://www.baltex- research.eu/ecosupport/dss/index.html valdur.lahtvee@seit.ee 20. SEI climate change adaptation global knowledge sharing platform weADAPT http://weadapt.org/ Thematic areas: Adaptation Decision Making Climate Adaptation Training Communicating Climate Risk Economics of adaptation Ecosystem-based Adaptation Forests and Climate Change National Adaptation Planning Synergies between adaptation and mitigation Transforming Governance Urban adaptation to climate change Using Climate Information Vulnerability valdur.lahtvee@seit.ee