v4escrow ipv4 transfers - enog.org daniel velea, june 2016 recognized ipv4 broker in: v4escrow we...

Elvis Daniel Velea, June 2016

Recognized IPv4 Broker in:

V4 E s c r o wW e r e c y c l e I P v 4 a n d p r o m o t e I P v 6 !

IPv4 Transfers

Elvis Daniel VeleaChief Executive Officer

ENOG 11 - 8 June 2016


Transfer Statistics

2

Receiving RIR 2012 and before 2013 2014 2015 2016

ARIN # of IP blocks 102 30 59 264 239 *

APNIC # of IP blocks 251 189 343 442 348 **

RIPE NCC # of IP blocks 10 171 1055 2853 729 **

Total # of IP blocks 363 390 1457 3559 1316

ARIN # of IPs 6,819,584 5,128,448 4,745,472 34,145,024 2,541,056 *

APNIC # of IPs 3,435,008 1,962,240 3,851,264 6,311,168 3,316,736 **

RIPE NCC # of IPs 65,536 1,977,344 9,645,568 10,833,920 2,467,584 **

Total # of IPs 10,320,128 9,068,032 18,242,304 51,290,112 8,325,376

* January - April ** January - May


Transfer Statistics

3

Number of Transfers

0

750

1500

2250

3000

2012 * 2013 2014 2015 2016 *

ARINAPNICRIPE NCC

Number of IP Addresses

0

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

2012 * 2013 2014 2015 2016 *

ARINAPNICRIPE NCC

* 2012 stats show transfers before and during 2012 * 2016 stats show transfers Jan to May for RIPE and APNIC and Jan to April for ARIN


Transfer Statistics - RIPE NCC

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• Policies for transfers: – Intra-RIR policy since Dec 2008 - First IPv4 Transfer in Oct. 2012 – compatible Inter-RIR transfer policy with ARIN and APNIC since October 2015

• Run-out on 14 September 2012 • Number of transfers increased since IPv4 policy clean-up in February 2014 • Number of LIRs increased with more than 50% since runout • 556 PI transfers since November 2014 totaling 569,344 IPs • 45 Inter-RIR Transfers from ARIN totaling 2,480,896 IPs • 5 Inter-RIR Transfers from APNIC totaling 15,360 IPs • 2 Inter-RIR Transfers FROM RIPE totaling 1536 IPs • 2016 - probably the first year to see a slowdown in number of transfers in RIPE


Transfer Statistics - APNIC• Policies for transfers:

– Intra-RIR policy since February 2010 - First IPv4 transfer in Nov. 2010 – compatible Inter-RIR transfer policy with ARIN since August 2011 and with RIPE

NCC since October 2015 • Runout on 15 April 2011 • IP transfers within APNIC

– number of transfers and total number of IPs increased with about 50% every year • Inter-RIR Transfers from ARIN

– 6 in 2012, 17 in 2013, 94 in 2014, 71 in 2015, 20 in 2016 * • Inter-RIR Transfers from RIPE

– none yet

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Transfer Statistics - ARIN• Policies for transfers:

– Intra-RIR policy since June 2009 - First IPv4 Transfer in Oct. 2009 – compatible Inter-RIR transfer policy with APNIC since July 2012 and with RIPE

NCC since October 2015 • Run-out on 24 September 2015 • IP transfers within ARIN

– number of transfers and total number of IPs increased in 2015 and continues to grow and are surging since run-out

• Inter-RIR Transfers from RIPE – one in 2016 *

• Inter-RIR Transfers from APNIC – 3 in 2015, 2 in 2016 *

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Elvis Daniel Velea, June 2016 7

Transfer Statistics - RIPE NCCPrefix size transferred vs Total Number of IPs

0

1,500,000

3,000,000

4,500,000

6,000,000

0

350

700

1050

1400

/24 /23 /22 /21 /20 /19 /18 /17 /16 /15 /14

17268666118261

441

755

1,214

690

1,1361,136

690

1,214

755

441261

118 66 86 26 17

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016 *

0 750 1500 2250 3000

/24 /23 /22 /21 /20 /19 /18 /17 /16 /15 /14


Transfer Statistics - APNIC

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Prefix size transferred vs Total Number of IPs

0

3,500,000

7,000,000

10,500,000

14,000,000

0

100

200

300

400

/24 /23 /22 /21 /20 /19 /18 /17 /16 /15 /14 /13 /12

121219

192

6179

146170142

318253

376376

253318

142170 146

79 61

192

19 12 2 1

201020112012201320142015

2016 *0 150 300 450 600

/24 /23 /22 /21 /20 /19 /18 /17 /16 /15 /14 /13 /12


Prefix size transferred vs Total Number of IPs

0

4,500,000

9,000,000

13,500,000

18,000,000

0

45

90

135

180

/24 /23 /22 /21 /20 /19 /18 /17 /16 /15 /14 /13 /12 /11 /10

1814101517

68

143038

737089

77

170170

7789

70 73

38 3014

68

17 15 10 14 8 1

Transfer Statistics - ARIN

2009201020112012201320142015

2016 *0 75 150 225 300

/24 /23 /22 /21 /20 /19 /18 /17 /16 /15 /14 /13 /12 /11 /10


Number of Transfers

0

750

1500

2250

3000

0

3,000,000

6,000,000

9,000,000

12,000,000

2012 * 2013 2014 2015 2016 *

Number of Transfers (2016 Estimated)Actual Number of IPs Jan - May 2016Total number of IPs (2016 Estimated)Actual number of Transfers Jan - May 2016

2,467,584

5,922,202

10,833,920

9,645,568

1,977,344

65,536

729

1,750

2,853

1,055

17110

2,467,584

10171

1,055

2,853

1,750

Transfer Statistics - RIPE NCC


Number of Transfers

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

0

225

450

675

900

2010 2011 2012 * 2013 2014 2015 2016 *

Number of Transfers (2016 Estimated)Number of Transfers Jan - May 2016Total Number of IPs (2016 Estimated)Number of IPs Jan - May 2016

3,316,736

7,960,167

6,311,168

3,851,264

1,962,2401,821,6961,611,008

2,304

356

855

445

343

189166

83

2

356

2

83

166 189

343

445

855

Transfer Statistics - APNIC


Number of Transfers

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

0

200

400

600

800

2009 2010 2011 2012 * 2013 2014 2015 2016 *

Number of Transfers (2016 Estimated)Total Number of IPs (2016 Estimated)Number of Transfers Jan - Apr 2016Number of IPs Jan - Apr 2016

2,537,472

235

7,612,416

34,144,000

4,745,4725,128,4484,862,2081,931,776

8,19017,408

705

261

593027

53220

235

20 253

27 3059

261

705

Transfer Statistics - ARIN


Transfer trends

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Number of IP addresses

0

1,250,000

2,500,000

3,750,000

5,000,000

Pre-2012 2012Q2 2012Q4 2013Q2 2013Q4 2014Q2 2014Q4 2015Q2 2015Q4 2016Q2

RIPE NCC


Transfer trends

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0

750,000

1,500,000

2,250,000

3,000,000

Pre-2012 2012Q2 2012Q4 2013Q2 2013Q4 2014Q2 2014Q4 2015Q2 2015Q4 2016Q2

APNIC


Transfer trends

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0

3,000,000

6,000,000

9,000,000

12,000,000

Pre 2012 2012 Q2 2012 Q4 2013 Q2 2013 Q4 2014 Q2 2014 Q4 2015 Q2 2015 Q4 2016 Q2 *

ARIN


V4Escrow’s predictions are accurate• V4Escrow was asked during Menog14 in 2014 to make a prediction on the number of IPs transferred in

2014. We estimated that 1x/8 will have been transferred and were 98% right.

• During Menog15 in 2015 we also predicted that 4x/8s will have been transferred globally in 2015. According to the publicly available stats, 3.06 /8s were transferred and recorded in the RIR stats making our prediction 76% accurate.

– Geoff Huston showed in a presentation at APNIC41 that 14M IP addresses have, apparently, been transferred but are not recorded in the RIR databases (probably subject to futures contracts)

• Considering the 3.05 /8s transferred and recorded and the 14M IPs seen in the routing table but not recorded in the database, we can say that the 4 /8s prediction was also 98% accurate.

• Based on previous predictions which were spot-on, we predicted in March 2016 at Menog16 that the number of IPs transferred in 2016 will decrease to 2.5x/8s.

• In 2016 (January to 1st of June - ARIN only until May) - 8,321,792 (~0.5x/8) IPs have been transferred. – 1st observed slowdown of the IPv4 market - less large blocks (/16 to /12) being transferred – expecting to see a big player (/8) in the market as demand still exists but no supply of /16 or larger

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Lessons learned• Contact Geo-IP providers once you receive an IP block through a transfer

– your customers will be seen in the country of the transferor for the first few months. • Ask for a blacklist report on the IP block or check major blacklisting providers. • If you are they Buyer - request the seller to forward you the abuse reports for the IP

addresses transferred to you – the Seller will continue to receive abuse reports for at least 6-12 months for the IP

addresses transferred because abuse reporters do not update their databases and continue to send the reports to the ‘old’ abuse contact

• Start routing immediately, hijacks do happen very often • If you do not transfer the IP block through a broker, make sure the person that you

talk to has corporate authorization to transfer to you. Ask for PoA (Power of Attorney). • Have a price in mind before you contact a Broker or the other party for the transfer.

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Pricing - observed vs estimated

• Runout in ARIN in 2015 affected pricing - prices started to go up in ARIN • RIPE Inter-RIR transfer policy caused prices to harmonize between ARIN and RIPE • Price trends have reversed, prices have increased since ARIN Runout

– minimum price observed was in 2012-2014 - $5/IP (ARIN) and $7/IP (RIPE) – a lot of IPv4 available on the market

– current prices have harmonized at $10-$12/IP – only a few large blocks (/16 or larger) available on the market – many transactions (/17 and smaller) observed at $12-$14/IP – several small transactions at even $15-$20/IP

• Large IP blocks (/8s) added to the market may draw prices down • Maximum price still to be observed but we estimate it to grow above $25/IP

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/22s - Price vs Policy vs IPv4 Market• “The ability to open additional LIR accounts was confirmed at the RIPE NCC General Meeting on 27

May 2016 when members voted to approve the following resolution: • "The General Meeting approves the ability of RIPE NCC members to create additional LIR accounts.” • The RIPE NCC is now working on creating the processes to implement this resolution.” - RIPE NCC e-

mail June 7th 2016

• Current policies were conceived with the idea that the last /22 will be used by members to migrate to IPv6. However, current market reality shows that many consider it a method to make profit.

• Price for /22 in RIPE is ~$3,8/IP in the first year and ~$1.5/IP/year after that • Thus - lowest price per IP in the RIPE Region is set by the RIPE NCC at ~$5/IP

– RIPE NCC still has ~15M IPs to distribute at this ‘price’ – anyone can request one or more /22s (1024 IPs) from the RIPE NCC - no need based policy

• Price for small blocks in APNIC is ~$1/IP/year if you request a /21 – APNIC still has ~8,5M IPs to distribute at this ‘price’ – one can request up to a /21 from APNIC as long as you can estimate a need in 2 years

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IPv6

• as per Google site – measured since 2008 – virtually 0 before 2012 – 100% growth in 2012 up to 1.1% – 150% growth in 2013 up to 2.8% – 100% growth in 2014 up to 5.6% – 95% growth in 2015 up to 10.4% – now at 11.75% worldwide - slowdown of growth in 2016

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• IPv6 adoption in Russia – only at 1,14% according to Google – 17% with 4 * RIPEness

– compared to 21% in RIPE – max 3.6% LIRs in Russia have 5 * RIPEness

– low IPv6 adoption = higher IPv4 prices in a few years

IPv6 in Russia

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Questions ?

www.v4escrow.net [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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