V14.1 Jun 20091

SPSRB Project Plan on

“MIRS-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure Estimation”

Project Lead: John KnaffBackup Project Lead: Liqun Ma

August 8, 2013

V14.1 Jun 20092

Outline

• Integrated Product Team (IPT)• Requirements• Capabilities Assessment• IT System Architecture• Plan of Operations• Project Milestones • Funding • Spending plan and tasks

V14.1 Jun 20093

Integrated Product Team (IPT)

• IPT Lead: John Knaff (STAR)• IPT Backup Lead: Liqun Ma (OSPO)• NESDIS team:

─ STAR : John Knaff, Mark DeMaria ─ OSPO : Liqun Ma, Gregg Gallina, Antonio Irving─ OSD : Tom Schott─ Others : Jack Dostalek (CIRA), Andrea Schumacher (CIRA)

• User team─ Lead: Gregg Gallina (NESDIS/OSPO/SAB)─ Others: Sam Houston (NOAA/NWS - CPHC), Edward Fukada (DOD, Joint

Typhoon Warning Center), Christopher Landsea (NOAA/NWS – NHC)

• Oversight Panel (OP) lead: ICAPOP

V14.1 Jun 20094

Requirement

• Requirement(s)─ This project is justified by a 2001 SPSRB request for Microwave tropical

cyclone intensity product─ There is support though no requirement from NHC, CPHC and JTWC since

the requirement has been met.

• User community: Tropical cyclone forecasting centers (NHC, CPHC, JTWC, WMO Regional Meteorological Specialized Centers RMSCs), Marine forecasters

• NOAA Mission Goal supported: Serve Society's Needs for Weather and Water Information

• Mission priority: Optimal─ Supports JTWC/NHC/CPHC requirements to estimate tropical cyclone

intensity─ Supports JTWC/NHC/CPHC requirement to determine whether a cyclone is

tropical, subtropical or extratropical ─ Supports JTWC/NHC/CPHC requirements to estimate and forecast radii of

34-, 50-, and 64-kt winds─ Supports secondary users at other global tropical cyclone warning centers

V14.1 Jun 20095

Capabilities Assessment

Current Capabilities Requested Capabilities Proposed Capabilities

Satellite Source (s) NOAA-15, 16, 18 Metop-A MIRS (NOAA-19, Metop-A, B)

Product Name An Objective Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Derived from the Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit.

An Objective Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Derived from the Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit.

Same as requested

Accuracy RMSE~ 13.7 kt, 10.4 hPa

MAE ~ 10.7 kt, 7.8 hPa

No Change No Change

Latency 3 –h No Change No Change

Timeliness ~9 h ~6 hourly Same as requested

Coverage Global No Change No Change

Resolution N/A

Other attributes Also produces estimates of operational wind radii (i.e., 34-,50- and 64-kt winds)

Also produces estimates of operational wind radii (i.e., 34-,50- and 64-kt winds)

Metop-A also fills the 930LST POES data gap.

Same as requested

V14.1 Jun 20096

SHORTFALLS

• Timeliness─ The increase in the number of AMSU A instruments from 3 to 6 should improve the timeliness of

microwave intensity estimates from approximately 8 to 9 hours to 5 to 6 hours on average. Metop’s orbit fills the 930LST POES data gap.

• Accuracy of Product─ Accuracy is expected to remain the same as the current products

• Define how product development addresses shortfalls─ The addition of Metop and additional POES via MIRS will increase the timeliness of the AMSU-

based tropical cyclone fixes─ Since the TC structure algorithm uses a 700 km data swath (~1/2 of the data) additional satellites

increase the overall number of TC intensity/structure estimates.

• Benefit─ These products are used at JTWC, NHC, CPHC and WMO RMSCs for the diagnosis of tropical

cyclone structure including intensity, size and warm/cold core structures

• Impact if not funded─ If not funded the AMSU intensity and structure products will continue to have the same timeliness

and may actually degrade if NOAA 15, 16 or 18 instruments should fail. ─ AMSU-A instrument capabilities on Metop and additional POES will remain underutilized.─ No AMSU-based TC estimates near 930 LST

V14.1 Jun 20097

Algorithm Status and Approach

• Current status of algorithms being considered in your project─ Algorithm is documented in Demuth et al. 2004, 2006─ Include expected performance

• Overview of technical approach of the algorithm and its implementation─ Statistical temperature retrievals along with boundary conditions supplied by NCEP

analyses are the basis for the physical retrieval of pressure and wind fields that are statistically corrected to provide estimates of the maximum 1-minute sustained winds, MSLP and radii of 34-, 50- and 64-kt winds.

─ Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast databases, AMSU antenna temperatures, NCEP analyses.

─ For each active tropical cyclone globally ingest the most current MIRS retrievals, use NCEP boundary conditions to perform a physical retrieval of pressure and winds. Statistically correct those estimates and disseminate them to users from OSPO

• Validation of the product is conducted versus the final tropical cyclone best track values of intensity, MSLP and wind radii when aircraft have recently monitored the tropical cyclone. Validation was performed by SAB for the first two years, but is currently done by CIRA in collaboration with NHC. Note this is already an operational product.

IT System Architecture, Data Flow, Security

V14.2 12 Jan 20108

NCEP GFS Model DataSATEPSDIST5

IBM P550 Remap Svr

DistributionDDS

IBM P550

NHC, NWS, JTWC,

Other Users

NOAA-19 MIRS Retrievals

DDSIBM P550

Metop-A,B MIRS Retrievals

DDSIBM P550

Operationalvmtcfpprod

Linux

External User ZoneDistribution Zone (DMZ)Development ZoneProduction Zone

SATEPS Security at ESPC/NSOF

JTWC, CPHC, NHCATCF Advisory “b-decks”

SATEPSDIST1IBM P550 Remap Svr

ATCF, ascii, netCDFftp Pull

WMO GRIB FilesSFTP Pull

ASCIIrsync Pull

PNGsftp Push

HDF/NetCDF Filesftp Pull

DevelopmentVmtcfpdev

Linux

vmVM CM Repository

serverLinux

V15.0 November 20099

Research and Operational System Environments

Project Name: AMSU-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure Estimation from MIRS

IT Item Research Operations

Agency StAR OSPO

Platform(s) * and need dates Intel Workstation, June 2013 VMware server(Intel(R) Xeon(R)

Operating Systems **Red Hat Linux Red Hat Linux

Programming languages/compilers ***Fortan 90 Fortran 90

Scripting languagesBsh, sh, python 2.7 Perl 5.10 ,bash, sh, python 2.7

Graphical/Imaging programs, COTS S/W, other tools, libraries, etc

Imagemagick , gnuplot, grads Imagemagick , gnuplot, grads

Helpdesk Monitoring Tool (standardized tool or customized tool?)

Website or email Website or email

Other platforms needed for monitoring/imaging/graphics (specify platform & operating system)

ESPC web servers ESPC web servers

Other (tools, shareware, libraries, critical non-static ancillary data, etc)

netCDF readers for MIRS, netCDF libraries, ATCF TC info, GFS analyses(GRIB2), python modules (netcdf4, scipy, numpy, matplotlib, basemap)

netCDF readers for MIRS, netCDF libraries, ATCF TC info, GFS analyses(GRIB2) python modules (netcdf4, scipy, numpy, matplotlib, basemap)

* ESPC target architecture platform is IBM P6 for science production systems** ESPC target OS is AIX with Redhat Linux partition*** IDL and MATLAB are not supported in ESPC for science algorithm processing, only for post-processing tasks

Red font indicates new IT resource requirements for this projectBlue font indicates existing IT resources will be used for this project

V15.0 November 200910

Operational Agency System Requirements

Project Name: MIRS-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure Estimation

Back-up Operations

IT Item Development Operations On-Site Off-Site

Agency StAR OSPO

Platform(s) and need dates (include secondary platforms for monitoring, imagery or graphics, if necessary)

Intel workstation, June 2013

Operation Power 6 IBM or ESPC VMware server(Intel(R) Xeon(R) CPU E7- 4850)

Storage required on systems10 Gig Less than a 5 mb

How often does system run (granule time, orbital, daily); event or schedule driven?

When a new storm is initiated or new storm information is available

Every 2 hours

Memory used at run timeMinimal Minimal

Input data volume and input data sources

MIRS orbits, ATCF storm information, GFS analyses

MIRS information, ATCF storm information, GFS analyses

Data volume for distribution; planned distribution server; specific push users & volumes

N/A

< 1 Gb per day , depending on the number of storms.

Ftpanom (three days of analyses and fixes)

Communication Requirements/Protocol

ftp/sftp ftp/sftp

Days to retain input and output dataforever 7 days

Red font indicates new IT resource requirements for this projectBlue font indicates existing IT resources will be used for this project

V14.1 Jun 200911

Plan of Operations

• Product Storage Plan─ NHC will archive the output at NHC, all fixes will be archived on the ATCF, data is

available via ftp for 3 days─ All output data─ Base

• Long Term Maintenance Plan─ Product maintenance is fairly minimal─ Maintained by OSPO

• Quality Monitoring Plan─ Define Quality Control (QC) tools to be developed/used─ CIRA will work with NHC to perform seasonal verifications based on best track wind

intensities and aircraft measured pressures─ NHC, CPHC, JTWC will continue to monitor daily.

• Documentation/Metadata Plan─ Prepare SPSRB required documentation

• User Involvement Plan─ Users have been involved with this product over the last several years as it has been

a Joint Hurricane Testbed project, a PSDI project and a current operational product. The evaluation and monitoring of the product will continue in a similar manner.

V14.1 Jun 200912

Project Milestones and Key Tasks

Product Delivery/Tracking Name: AMSU-Based Intensity and Structure Estimation from Aqua and Metop

• May 08 (May 08) (May 08) (May 08) (May 08) (May 08): Development Phase Begins─ Jan 08: IPT Branch Lead informed to begin product development─ Jan 08: Obtain aqua and Metop AMSU-A retrievals─ May 08: Begin to develop the BUFR scripts to obtain the Aqua and Metop AMSU-A data on the

NCEP IBM.─ July 09: Obtain NOAA-19 retrieval ─ Jul 09: Modify operational retrieval code to use the new data streams

• Aug 08 (Aug 08) (Aug 08) (Aug 08) (Aug 08) (Aug 08): Pre-operational Phase Begins─ Aug 08: Begin to work with TPC and NCO to update the operational scripts─ May 11: Move updated retrievals, BUFR code and scripts to the NCEP IBM ─ Jan 12: Test cases (during the later part of the hurricane season).─ Feb 12: Implement the new code in the NCEP operational suit of products─ Mar 12: run code in real-time on the IBM… possibly in parallel.─ Mar 12: Update SPSRB Oversight Panel(s) on product status─ Apr 12: Brief SPSRB capability is ready to operational

• May 13 (May 12) (May 11) (May 10) (Apr 09) (Apr 09): Operational Phase Begins─ May 13: SPSRB manager and secretaries notified update/upgrade went into operations.

SPSRB Secretaries/manager update the SPSRB product metrics web pages

─ May 13: OSD notified to update Satellite Products database─ May 13: Product declared operational.

Terminated

V14.1 Jun 200913

Project Milestones and Key Tasks

Product Delivery/Tracking Name: MIRS-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure Estimation

• May 13 (May 13): Development Phase Begins─ May 13: IPT Branch Lead informed to begin product development─ May 13: Local MIRS database developed─ Jul 13: Modify existing code to use MIRS input─ Aug 13: run code in real-time at CIRA

• Nov 13 (Nov 13): Pre-operational Phase Begins─ Nov 13: Begin to work with IPT to install the ingest and code─ Jan 14: Test cases on global TCs.─ Jan 14: Implement the new code in the OSPO/NSOF operational suit of products─ Feb 14: run code in real-time… possibly in parallel.─ Mar 14: Update SPSRB Oversight Panel(s) on product status─ Apr 14: Brief SPSRB capability is ready to operational

• May 14 (May 14): Operational Phase Begins─ May 14: SPSRB manager and secretaries notified update/upgrade went into operations.

SPSRB Secretaries/manager update the SPSRB product metrics web pages

─ Jun 14: OSD notified to update Satellite Products database─ Jul 14: Product declared operational.

V14.1 Jun 200914

Product Deliverable DetailsProduct Type and Number of Products

Fiscal Year (FY)

Product Delivery/Tracking Name

Environmental Observational Parameters

Satellites Sensors N

#

E

#

R

#

T

#

O Tailoring Options or Comments

FY14 MIRS-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure Estimation

Maximum Wind Speed

Metop, NOAA -19

AMSU 2 Maximum Wind Speed is derived statistically from temperatures,wind speeds, and geopotential (Demuth et al. 2006)

FY14 MIRS-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure Estimation

Minimum Sea Level Pressure

Metop, NOAA -19

AMSU 2 Minimum Sea Level Pressure is statistically from temperatures, winds, and geopotential (Demuth et al. 2006)

FY14 MIRS-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure Estimation

Significant Wind Radii

Metop, NOAA -19

AMSU 2 Significant Wind Radii is statistically derived from temperatures, winds, geopotential and current intensity (Demuth et al. 2006)

FY14 MIRS-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure Estimation

Atmospheric winds Metop, NOAA -19

AMSU 2

FY14 MIRS-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure Estimation

Atmospheric geopotential heights

Metop, NOAA -19

AMSU 2

FY14 MIRS-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure Estimation

Atmospheric Temperatures

Metop, NOAA -19

AMSU 2

N=New E=Enhanced R=Replacement T=Tailored O=OtherDemuth, J., M. DeMaria, and J.A. Knaff, 2006:  Improvement of Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Size Estimation Algorithms, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 45:11, 1573–1581.

V14.1 Jun 200915

MIRS-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure Estimation (K)

Funding Source

Procurement Office

Purchase Items FY13 FY14

P-PSDI STAR Totals => 80 (0) 0 (0)

STAR CIRA Grant 80 (0) 0 (0)

P-PSDI OSPO Totals => 10 (10) 34 (0)

Software Contractor

0 (5) 30 (0)

IT Security 0 (0) 4 (0)

System Admin 0 (5) 0 (0)

Hardware 10 (0)

OSPO Base Totals => 0 (0) 0 (0)

0 (0) 0 (40)

STAR Base Totals => 0 (0) 0 (0)

STAR 0 (0) 0 (0)

V14.1 Jun 200916

FY13 Purchases and Tasks

• J. Knaff and M. DeMaria covered by base funding and will assist CIRA efforts (below)

• (80K from Polar-PSDI): Grant to CIRA for 1 person at 3/4 time from May 13 to Apr 14─ Modify operational code to accept MIRS retrievals as the input source─ Provide modified operational code to enable the use of the MIRS data source ─ Develop operational scripts ─ Test the new products ─ Coordinate with OSPO on the operational implementation

• (Use existing contract funds): OSPO Software Contractor for 1 senior programmer at 10% time from May 13 to Sep 13 ─ Assist with software code reviews─ Assist with system admin to configure operational/development server for this product.

• (Use existing contract funds): OSPO System Contractor for 1 senior programmer at 10% time from May 13 to Sep 13 ─ Build and configure operational/development server for this product.

• (10K from Polar PSDI): Hardware(disk)

V14.1 Jun 200917

FY14 Purchases and Tasks

• (30K from Polar PSDI): OSPO Software Contractor for 1 senior programmer at 25% time from Oct 13 to Jun 14 ─ Install this product to OSPDO servers─ Review product documentation─ Install or create monitoring system for this product

• (4K from Polar PSDI): IT Security