utilization of a high resolution weather and impact model to predict hurricane irene
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Utilization of a High Resolution Weather and Impact Model to Predict Hurricane Irene. Northeast Regional Operations Workshop 2011 Albany, NY Brandon Hertell. Lloyd Treinish, Anthony Priano , Hongfei Li, James Cipriani IBM – Thomas J. Watson Research Center. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Utilization of a High Resolution Weather and Impact Model to Predict Hurricane Irene
Northeast Regional Operations Workshop 2011
Albany, NY
Brandon Hertell
Lloyd Treinish, Anthony Priano, Hongfei Li, James Cipriani
IBM – Thomas J. Watson Research Center
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OverviewCon Edison, Inc. Service Territory
• 3.2 million electric customers
• 1.0 million gas customers
• 1,800 steam customers
• 709 MW of regulated generation
Con Edison Co. of New York
• 300,000 electric customers
• 127,000 gas customers
Orange and Rockland
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OverviewWeather Model
• Utilize WRF-ARW
– 2km resolution forecast
– Assimilate additional weather data
– 24hr/84hr forecast 2x daily (0z,12z)
– Temp, wind, wet bulb, precip
– Content available via web browser
– Email alert system
Model Domain
2 km6 km18 km
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OverviewImpact Model
Westchester Substation Map
Westchester County overhead electric
• Post-Process of weather model
• Output # of jobs per substation
• Quantifies uncertainty
• Email alert system
• Predictive & Nowcast “mode”
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Deep Thunder Weather Model
Forecast
OverviewImpact Model
Impact ModelHistorical Damage
Data
Historical Weather
Data
Calibrated Weather
Model
Gust Calculation
Model Training
Model Training
PredictiveNowCast
Real Time Observations
Model DesignPredictive vs. Nowcast
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OverviewTropical Storm Irene
• Land fall over NYC as a Tropical Storm
• Long duration by hurricane standards (18+ hours)
• Sustained winds 20-50mph
• Wind gusts 40-70mph
• Tornado in Queens
• Rainfall 5-10” (12” north NYC)
• 187,800 customers affected
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Results
8986 987 2226 2069 1127 1790
Friday 26th Saturday 27th
0z 12z 0z 12z
Predictive Predictive Nowcast Actual
Sunday 28th
Predicted jobs vs. actual jobs
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Results
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ResultsFriday – 0z
Sustained Wind Max. Daily Gust
MPH
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ResultsFriday – 0z
Number of Jobs Probability
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ResultsFriday – 12z
Sustained Wind Max. Daily Gust
MPH
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ResultsFriday – 12z
Number of Jobs Probability
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Results
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ResultsSaturday – 0z
Sustained Wind Max. Daily Gust
MPH
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ResultsSaturday – 0z
Number of Jobs Probability
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ResultsNowcast
Number of Jobs Probability
• Nowcast used to check model assumptions– In this case may not be a good check on model accuracy
– Dependant on good actual wind data inputs
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ResultsObservations
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
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Sustained Wind AWS NWS
Sp
eed
(m
ph
)
00hrs
28th 00hrs
29th
AWS wind seem low
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ResultsObservations
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Wind Gusts AWS NWS
Sp
eed
(m
ph
)
00hrs
28th 00hrs
29th
Gusts more reasonable
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Summary
• Impact forecast was close to actual
• Forecasts can have large variances
• Few large scale events in database
• Observational data quality check
• Study other cases to check wind accuracy
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Questions?
Brandon Hertell
Meteorologist
ConEdison Emergency Management
212-460-3129