UTILISING CENSUS 2011 RESULTS FPOR TRANSPORTATION PLANNING IN THE CITY OF TSHWANE

16 – 17 September 2013

Presented by:Hilton Vorster

UTILISING CENSUS 2011 RESULTS FPOR TRANSPORTATION PLANNING IN THE CITY OF TSHWANE

17 September 2013

Presented by:Hilton Vorster

Content

• Tshwane Growth and Development Strategy 2055

• Comprehensive Integrated Transport Plan (CITP)• Transport Model• Census and Household Survey • Tshwane: Household Travel Surveys• Conclusions

Tshwane Growth and Development Strategy –

Comprehensive Integrated Transport Plan (CITP)

Census and Household Survey DataHousehold Travel Surveys

TshwaneGrowth Development Strategy 2055

• It’s a Long-Term Strategy Framework, directing the City’s Planning

• Aimed at Improving the Quality of Living Across the Metro

• Revitalising the City• Boosting Economic Development• Attracting Investment• GDS 2055 underpinned by the Comprehensive

Integrated Transport Plan (CITP)

TshwaneDevelopment Strategy 2055

Term Strategy Framework, directing the

Aimed at Improving the Quality of Living Across the

Development

GDS 2055 underpinned by the Comprehensive Integrated Transport Plan (CITP)

1. Introduction

2. Transport Vision & Objectives

3. Transport Register Data Collection• CPTR• Traffic• Roads

4. Spatial Development Framework

5. Transport Needs Assessment

6. Public Transport Operational Strategy• Network

operational plan

• Reg. Rail Plan• OLS

7. Transport Infrastructure

Strategy• Road• Public

Transport Infrastructure

8.

11. Summary of Local ITPS in the Case of

District Municipalities

12. Funding Strategy of Proposals and Programmes

13.

Publ

ic P

artic

ipat

ion

Comprehensive Integrated Transport Plan (CITP)

Introduction

2. Transport Vision & Objectives

Register Data Collection

4. Spatial Development Framework

5. Transport Needs Assessment

TDM 9. Freight Logistics Strategy

10. Other Transport Related

Strategies

Funding Strategy of Proposals and Programmes

Data collection and modeling

Comprehensive Integrated Transport Plan (CITP)

Transport Model critical tool for CITP

• Socio-economic database to serve as input

• Land Use Model requirementsØ Dwelling Units and

Population by Income Group

Ø Labour Force (Economically Active Population, Formal Employed, Informal Employed and Unemployed)

Transport Model critical tool for CITP

Census and Householdrelation to the Modeling Process

Population & EmploymentPopulation & Employment

1. Trip Generation

Link (route) flows by mode

2. Trip Distribution

3. Modal Split

4. Trip assignment

Household Survey DataHousehold Survey DataForms the basis for Forms the basis for development of the development of the

calibrated equations used calibrated equations used for steps 1for steps 1-- 3 in the 43 in the 4--step step

modeling processmodeling process

Census and Household Survey Data in relation to the Modeling Process

Population & EmploymentPopulation & Employment

1. Trip Generation

Link (route) flows by mode

2. Trip Distribution

3. Modal Split

4. Trip assignment

Census Data Census Data Used as control Used as control

totals for totals for Population & Population & employment employment

datadata

Tshwane CITP: use of Census 2011 Socio-economic statistics

(A) MODELLING

Develop Land Use ModelStatistics by Income Group• Dwelling Units• Population• Labour Force

Serve as Input to Transportation Model

Report Results

Tshwane CITP: use of Census 2011 economic statistics

(B) HOUSEHOLD

TRAVEL SURVEY

Data Analysis which Includes weighting of the

Data by using Census Parameters such as gender

and age

Tshwane CITP: Use of Census 2011 socio-economic statistics

CENSUS 2011

Tshwane CITP: economic statistics

CENSUS 2011

METHODOLOGY1. Land Use Model requirementsØ Dwelling Units and Population by Income GroupØ Labour Force (Economically Active Population, Formal Employed,

Informal Employed and Unemployed)2. Use the program SuperSTAR to create the tables needed

EXAMPLE 1 and EXAMPLE 23. Develop the conversion table between the Census Small Area and the

Transportation Model Traffic Zones 4. Develop a database per Modelling traffic zone consisting of dwelling

units, population and labour force (productions) see EXAMPLE 45. The database serves as Input to the EMM4 Transportation Model,

where it will be used in the trip generation process6. Finally the results of the socio-economic input into the modelling

process will be reported – see EXAMPLE 5 and EXAMPLE 6

(A) MODELLING

EXAMPLE 1 EXAMPLE 2

EXAMPLE 5

METHODOLOGY

Dwelling Units and Population by Income GroupLabour Force (Economically Active Population, Formal Employed, Informal Employed and Unemployed)

to create the tables needed – see

Develop the conversion table between the Census Small Area and the Transportation Model Traffic Zones – see EXAMPLE 3Develop a database per Modelling traffic zone consisting of dwelling units, population and labour force (productions) see EXAMPLE 4The database serves as Input to the EMM4 Transportation Model, where it will be used in the trip generation process

economic input into the modelling see EXAMPLE 5 and EXAMPLE 6

(A) MODELLING

EXAMPLE 3

EXAMPLE 4

EXAMPLE 5 EXAMPLE 6

Statistics South Africa/Census 2011 Community ProfilesDwellings_Small_Areas

Table 1Annual household income, Type of main dwelling and Household size

for Household weighted, TSH: City of Tshwane

LOWHouse or brick/concrete

block structure on a separate stand or yard or

on a farm

Traditional dw elling/hut/structure made

of traditional materials

Flat or apartment in a block

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+ 1

Created on 12 September 2013Statistics South Africa: Web page: www.statssa.gov.zaSupport: info@statssa.gov.zaCopyright © 2010 Statistics South Africa. All rights reserved.

CENSUS 2011 : EXAMPLETABLES CREATED : DWELLING UNITS

Statistics South Africa/Census 2011 Community Profiles

Annual household income, Type of main dwelling and Household size for Household weighted, TSH: City of Tshwane

Flat or apartment in a block of f lats

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+

Copyright © 2010 Statistics South Africa. All rights reserved.

INCOME CATEGORY CATEGORISED IN LOW MIDDLE

AND HIGH INCOME

TYPE OF MAIN DWELLING

HOUSEHOLD SIZE

CENSUS 2011 : EXAMPLETABLES CREATED : DWELLING UNITS

EXAMPLE 1

Statistics South Africa/Census 2011 Community ProfilesLabour Force_Small_Areas

Table 1Official employment status and Type of sector

for Person w eighted

Employed

In the formal sector

In the informal sector

Private household

Do not know Unspecif ied

Not applicable

In the formal sector

- - - - - -

All cells in this table have been randomly rounded to base 3

Created on 12 September 2013Statistics South Africa: Web page: w ww .statssa.gov.zaSupport: info@statssa.gov.zaCopyright © 2010 Statistics South Africa. All rights reserved.

CENSUS 2011 : EXAMPLETABLES CREATED : LABOUR FORCE

Statistics South Africa/Census 2011 Community ProfilesLabour Force_Small_Areas

Official employment status and Type of sector for Person w eighted

Unemployed

In the formal

In the informal sector

Private household

Do not know Unspecif ied

Not applicable

- - - - - -

OFFICIAL EMPLOYMENT

STATUS

TYPE OF SECTOR

CENSUS 2011 : EXAMPLETABLES CREATED : LABOUR FORCE

EXAMPLE 2

Legend

Tshwane CITP Study Area

Census 2011 Small Area6 354 zones

Tshwane CITP TZ2 044 zones

DEVELOPMENT OF A COMPREHENSIVE

INTEGRATED TRANSPORT PLAN

(CITP)

STUDY AREA

TSHWANE CITP: CONVERSION TABLE

A CONVERSION TABLE WAS CREATED BETWEEN (2 044) AND CENSUS SMALL AREAS (6 354)

EXAMPLE 3

TSHWANE CITP: CONVERSION TABLE

A CONVERSION TABLE WAS CREATED BETWEEN TSHWANE CITP ZONESCENSUS SMALL AREAS (6 354)

EXAMPLE 3

END RESULT (PER TSHWANE TRAFFIC ZONEDWELLINGS, POPULATION AND ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE POPULATION

EXAMPLE 4

TSHWANETRAFFIC ZONE

1 873 12 755 43 959 57 587 2 842 32 063 2 5 10 24 39 15 22 3 - - - - - - 4 38 197 950 1 185 204 994 5 - - - - - - 6 2 11 49 62 10 66 7 73 609 2 201 2 883 356 3 074 8 227 869 3 158 4 254 1 046 3 965 9 - - - - - -

10 143 989 4 315 5 447 745 4 678 11 15 109 436 560 85 549 12 - 1 14 15 - 7 13 70 322 1 363 1 755 335 1 610 14 75 497 1 420 1 992 318 2 126 15 23 64 328 414 130 294 16 35 260 899 1 194 181 1 326 17 89 850 3 422 4 361 440 4 028 18 9 22 153 183 44 97 19 7 50 183 240 27 244 20 80 508 1 964 2 552 242 1 796 21 - - 11 11 - - 22 158 900 4 772 5 830 833 4 057 23 29 146 661 836 181 723 24 84 538 2 956 3 578 429 2 968

High Medium Low Total High Medium

DWELLINGS (CENSUS 2011) POPULATION (CENSUS 2011)

(PER TSHWANE TRAFFIC ZONE)DWELLINGS, POPULATION AND ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE POPULATION

EXAMPLE 4

91 857 126 762 75 057 46 470 6 573 22 014 75 057 50 88 53 44 7 2 53

- - - - - - - 3 020 4 218 1 227 396 90 741 1 227

- - - - - - - 155 231 57 35 - 23 57

8 090 11 520 3 144 1 551 444 1 149 3 144 9 830 14 841 4 548 2 027 261 2 261 4 548

- - - - - - - 14 125 19 548 5 931 2 691 681 2 559 5 931

1 349 1 983 543 279 12 252 543 44 51 18 6 3 9 18

4 445 6 390 1 878 900 168 810 1 878 5 023 7 467 2 970 1 476 303 1 191 2 970

937 1 361 440 198 62 180 440 3 113 4 620 1 683 765 45 873 1 683

11 603 16 071 5 016 2 448 465 2 103 5 016 422 563 167 81 32 54 167 470 741 270 171 12 87 270

6 068 8 106 2 874 1 710 234 930 2 874 21 21 6 3 - 3 6

16 476 21 366 6 912 2 871 696 3 345 6 912 2 129 3 033 774 402 72 300 774

10 781 14 178 3 984 1 683 267 2 034 3 984

Low Total

Economi- cally

Active Formal InformalUnemploy-

ment Total

POPULATION (CENSUS 2011) ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE (CENSUS 2011)

Moretele LM

MadibengLM

EkurhuleniCity of Johannesburg

City of Tshwane

Moretele LM(part)

MadibengLM (part)

City of Johannesburg

(part)

Ekurhuleni(part)

Legend

Tshwane CITP Study Area

Tshwane CITP Traffic ZonesCity of Tshwane

Planning RegionsTraffic Zones outside CoT

DEVELOPMENT OF A COMPREHENSIVE

INTEGRATED TRANSPORT PLAN

(CITP)

STUDY AREA

Thembisile LM

Thembisile LM(part)

MadibengLM

City of Tshwane

Moretele LM(part)

MadibengLM (part)

City of Johannesburg

(part)

Ekurhuleni(part)

REGION 1

REGION 2

REGION 3

REGION 4

REGION 5

REGION 6

Moretele LM

Legend

Tshwane CITP Study Area

Tshwane CITP Traffic ZonesCity of Tshwane

Planning Regions

DEVELOPMENT OF A COMPREHENSIVE

INTEGRATED TRANSPORT PLAN

(CITP)

CENSUS 2011POPULATION BY

TSHWANE TRAFFIC ZONE

CITP TZ Population<500500 to <10001000 to <25002500 to <50005000+

Thembisile LM(part)

Thembisile LM

REGION 7

EXAMPLE 5

Moretele LM

MadibengLM

EkurhuleniCity of Johannesburg

City of Tshwane

Moretele LM(part)

MadibengLM (part)

City of Johannesburg

(part)

Ekurhuleni(part)

333

086

289

823

110

453

98 0

80

453

740

REGION 1

REGION 2

REGION 3

REGION 4

REGION 5

REGION 6

189

374

244

641

144

552

48 3

65

273

139

132

685 13

9 53

4

46 7

76

32 6

02

228

315

81 0

23

141

599

63 1

91

22 1

48

150

810

88 3

43

47 1

43

15 6

69

5 60

6

136

117

6130

7

194

178

178

585

19 9

01

180

075

Legend

Tshwane CITP Study Area

Tshwane CITPTraffic Zones

City of Tshwane

Planning Regions

DEVELOPMENT OF A COMPREHENSIVE

INTEGRATED TRANSPORT PLAN

(CITP)

CENSUS 2011POPULATION BY

TSHWANE REGIONThembisile LM

(part)

Thembisile LM

High Income PopulationMedium Income PopulationLow Income Population

942

848 1 08

0 48

02

289

274

REGION 7

66 5

60

3746

1

28 7

77

13 0

20

14 3

70

1 55

4

EXAMPLE 6

Output from the modeling• Traffic flow on network per mode • Comparison between development scenarios• Travel demand forecasting

modelingTraffic flow on network per mode – congestions levelsComparison between development scenarios

Tshwane: Household Travel Surveys

• To obtain more detailed travel information• Comply with minimum requirements in terms of the

NLTA• Launched MMC Matjila, MMC Transport (9000 surveys)

Tshwane: Household Travel Surveys

To obtain more detailed travel informationComply with minimum requirements in terms of the

, MMC Transport (9000 surveys)

PretoriaPretoria

Survey Programme

Conclusions

• Evidence based decision making is essential for authorities to make reliable decisions

• An accurate and informed CITP is essential to guide transport development in Cities

• Transportation Modeling is an essential tool to determine network performance and demand forecasting

• Census information plays an integral part of data requirements for transportation planning

• Information must be supplemented to conform to the minimum requirements

Conclusions

Evidence based decision making is essential for authorities to make reliable decisionsAn accurate and informed CITP is essential to guide transport development in Cities

is an essential tool to determine network performance and demand forecastingCensus information plays an integral part of data requirements for transportation planningInformation must be supplemented to conform to the

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