utah economic indicators source: council of economic advisors' revenue assumptions committee

77
Utah Economic Indicators Source: Council of Economic Advisors' Revenue Assumptions Committee Retail Sales Home Prices Average Pay Unemployment Rate Nonfarm Employment Population 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 5.0 5.3 1.9 3.6 2.5 1.7 4.3 7.1 3.6 3.6 3.0 1.7 6.1 7.4 1.0 4.4 3.3 1.6 2013 2014e 2015f

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Utah Economic Indicators

Source: Council of Economic Advisors' Revenue Assumptions Committee

Retail Sales

Home Prices

Average Pay

Unemployment Rate

Nonfarm Employment

Population

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

5.0

5.3

1.9

3.6

2.5

1.7

4.3

7.1

3.6

3.6

3.0

1.7

6.1

7.4

1.0

4.4

3.3

1.6

2013 2014e 2015f

Percent Change in Utah Employment by Industry: 2014-2015 Annual Averages

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services e = estimate f = forecast

Government

Other Services

Leisure & Hospitality

Education & Health Services

Professional & Business Services

Financial Activity

Information

Trade, Trans., Utilities

Manufacturing

Construction

Mining

Total Nonfarm Jobs

0 3 6 9

0.8

2.4

2.5

2.5

4.5

1.6

4.6

2.1

2.8

4.0

2.3

2.5

0.8

2.8

3.9

2.6

1.6

2.5

7.6

3.7

3.9

6.3

5.7

3.0

2014e 2015f

Population Loss

NM0.1%

UT1.6%

AZ1.2%

CA0.9%

NV1.3%

OR0.8%

TX1.5%

OK0.9%

CO1.5%

WA1.1%

ID1.0%

MT1.0%

WY1.0%

ND3.1%

SD1.3%

MN0.8%

NE0.7%

KS0.3%

IA0.5%

MO0.3%

AR0.3%

LA0.5%

WI0.3%

IL0.1%

IN0.5%

OH0.2%

FL1.2%

TN 0.6%

KY0.4%

MS0.2%

AL0.3%

GA0.8%

SC1.1%

NC 1.0%

VA0.9%

WV-0.1%

PA0.1%

NY0.4%

ME-0.01%

AK0.7%

HI1.0%

MA0.7%

VT0.1%

NH0.1%

RI0.1%

CT0.1%

NJ0.4%

DE0.9%

MD0.7%

MI0.1%

0.9% to 1.4%

0.4% to 0.8%

DC2.1%

1.5% or more

0% to 0.3%

Percent Change in Population for States: 2011 to 2012

U.S. Rate = 0.7%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 1.1Annual Unemployment Rate for Utah

and the United States1

95

0

19

52

19

54

19

56

19

58

19

60

19

62

19

64

19

66

19

68

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

e

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Utah United States

Sources: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Figure 1.2State of Utah Components of Population

Change

Sources: Utah Population Estimates Committee, U.S. Census Bureau, State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group

19

50

19

52

19

54

19

56

19

58

19

60

19

62

19

64

19

66

19

68

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

e

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Natural Increase Net Migration Population Change

Figure 1.3Revenue Collections

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

3,9214,047

3,838 3,8834,101

4,580

5,452

5,9135,809

5,173

4,752

5,2475,490

5,9056,028

6,259

Mil

lio

ns o

f D

oll

ars

Source: Utah State Tax Commission and Governor's Office of Management and Budget

Figure 1.4Utah Residential Construction Activity

Source: University of Utah, David Eccles School of Business, Bureau of Economic and Business Research

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014e

2015f

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Single-Family Units Multifamily Total

Figure 2.1United States Annual Deficits

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

0

2

4

6

8

10

12$

16

1

$4

59

$1

,41

3

$1

,29

4

$1

,30

0

$1

,08

7

$6

80

$5

06

$4

69

$5

56

$5

30

$5

60

$6

61

$7

37

$8

20

$9

46

An

nu

al

Fed

era

l D

efi

cit

(B

illi

on

s)

An

nu

al F

ed

era

l Defi

cit (P

erc

en

t of G

DP

)

Source: Congressional Budget Office

Figure 2.2United States Real GDP Growth

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2.5%

1.6%

2.3%2.2% 2.2%

2.9%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group

Figure 3.1Labor Force Participation Rate

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

Utah US

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment status of the civilian non-institutional population, seasonally adjusted.

Figure 3.2Venture Capital Investments by State

Source: CB Insights

2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3 2014

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400$

90

0

$6

13

$8

06

$9

20

$9

11

$4

83

$8

14

$5

86

$8

84

$5

62

$4

3

$2

28

$1

,13

3

$4

55

$8

39

$7

5

$1

69

$3

83

$2

93

$2

00

$3

2

$3

01

$1

02 $1

84

$1

41

WA CO UT AZ OR

Mil

lio

ns

Figure 3.3Terminal Redevelopment Annual

Expenditures

Source: Salt Lake City International Airport

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$3.1

$80.9

$144.8

$351.3 $353.2

$335.1

$232.0

$165.0

$75.7

$40.2

Mil

lio

ns

Figure 4.1Utah Population Growth Rates by County: 2012 to 2013

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Box Elder1.1%

Cache1.0%

Rich0.5%

Weber 0.8%

Tooele1.5%

Salt Lake1.5%

Morgan3.7%

Summit1.5%

Daggett 3.7%

Utah2.2%

Wasatch4.4% Duchesne

5.5% Uintah2.9%

Juab0.1%

Sanpete0.8%

Carbon-1.3%

Emery-1.5% Grand

0.1%

Millard0.7%

Piute-0.6%

Garfield-0.4%

Sevier0.6%

Wayne0.4%

San Juan0.4%

Iron0.0%

Beaver-0.3%

Washington2.2%

Kane0.5%

Davis

2.0%

State of Utah = 1.6%

Increase of 1.4% to 2.7%

Population Loss

Increase of 4.1% or greater

Increase of 2.8% to 4.0%

Increase of 0.0% to 1.3%

Figure 4.2State of Utah Components of Population

Change

Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee, U.S. Census Bureau, State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group

19

50

19

52

19

54

19

56

19

58

19

60

19

62

19

64

19

66

19

68

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

e

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Natural Increase Net Migration Population Change

Note: The Replacement Level is the fertility level at which the current population is replacedSource: National Center for Health Statistics

Figure 4.8Total Fertility for Utah and the United States

19

60

19

61

19

62

19

63

19

64

19

65

19

66

19

67

19

68

19

69

19

70

19

71

19

72

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Utah U.S. Replacement Level

Figure 5.1Annual Average Job Growth Rate for

Utah and the United States1

95

0

19

52

19

54

19

56

19

58

19

60

19

62

19

64

19

66

19

68

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

e

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Utah US

Sources: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Figure 5.2Annual Unemployment Rate for Utah

and the United States1

95

0

19

52

19

54

19

56

19

58

19

60

19

62

19

64

19

66

19

68

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

e

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Utah United States

Sources: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Figure 5.3Annual Average Unemployment Rate

and Wage Growth1

97

8

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

e

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Unemployment Rate Wage Growth

Sources: Utah Department of Workforce Services

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014e

2015f

77%

78%

79%

80%

81%

82%

83%

84%

85%

86%

80

.5%

81

.4%

81

.8%

81

.5%

81

.7%

81

.0% 81

.5%

81

.5%

80

.5%

80

.3%

82

.0%

83

.4%

84

.5%

83

.8%

82

.3%

80

.8%

80

.9%

81

.2% 8

1.8

%

81

.1%

80

.5%

Figure 6.1Utah Per Capita Income as Percent of

U.S. Per Capita Income

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Figure 6.2Utah vs. U.S. Total Personal Income

Growth

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014e

2015f

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Utah United States

An

nu

al

Perc

en

t C

han

ge

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Figure 7.1Percent of GDP by Industry: 2013

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

24%

28%

3.8

%

4.6

%

14

.9%

15

.6%

3.7

%

21

.4%

10

.1%

6.7

%

3.1

%

2.8

%

13

.2%

4.3

%

3.7

%

12

.5%

16

.4%

4.8

%

19

.7%

12

.0%

8.3

%

3.7

%

2.2

%

12

.5%

Utah United States

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Figure 7.2Utah vs. United States Real GDP Growth

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Utah United States

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Figure 8.1Percent Change in Utah Taxable Sales

by Component

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015f

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Retail Sales Business Investment Purchases

Taxable Services

Source: Utah State Tax Commission

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

f

20

16

f

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

3.8

8.0

10.2

7.1

6.4

6.3

-1.5

3.5

-3.7

19.4

5.7

0.0

2.1

8.9

3.5

1.2

0.6

3.0

5.0

9.6

8.8

7.4

6.1

4.8

2.9

8.0

0.7

-7.2

-1.0

3.2

9.0

15.3

6.1

-3.9

-13.9

-8.5

9.1

2.3

7.9

0.2

2.2

1.8

Fiscal Years

Perc

en

t C

han

ge

The annual average rate of growth in infla-tion-adjusted unrestricted revenues (GDP De-flator) from FY1975 to FY2014 was 3.9%.

Figure 9.1Inflation-Adjusted Percentage Change in Unrestricted General and Education Fund

Revenue

Source: Utah State Tax Commission f =forecast

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

-$200

-$100

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

2014 Real (GDP Deflator)

Fiscal Years

Mil

lio

ns o

f D

oll

ars

Figure 9.2Actual and Inflation-Adjusted Unrestricted

Revenue Surplus/Deficit for the General and Education Fund

Source: Governor’s Office of Management and Budget

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

f

20

16

f

0

10

20

30

40

50

Others Sales Income

Fiscal Years

Perc

en

t o

f T

ota

l R

even

ues

*Total State Unrestricted Revenues includes General Fund, Education Fund, and Transportation Fund revenues. Mineral lease revenues are not included. The "Others" category includes all other revenue sources in those funds except for Sales and Income tax.

Source: Utah State Tax Commission and Governor’s Office of Management and Budget

Figure 9.3Sales Tax, Income Tax, and All Other

Unrestricted Revenues as a Percent of Total State Unrestricted Revenues

Figure 10.1Utah Merchandise Exports

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

4,731

6,0676,801

7,815

10,306 10,337

13,808

18,968 19,256

16,111

Mil

lio

ns o

f D

oll

ars

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 10.2Utah Merchandise Exports of Top Ten

Export Industries

Minerals

Fabricated Metals

Electrical Equipment

Machinery

Miscellaneous Manufactures

Transportation Equipment

Chemicals

Food

Computers and Electronics

Primary Metals

$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000

266

220

179

607

505

811

799

817

2,038

12,179

173

236

252

559

562

817

831

956

2,567

8,318

2013 2012

Millions of Dollars

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 10.3Utah Merchandise Exports to Top Ten

Purchasing Countries

South Korea

Taiwan

Mexico

Japan

Singapore

Thailand

United Kingdom

Canada

China

Hong Kong

$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000

239

533

488

563

484

507

6,043

1,918

608

4,178

341

477

547

628

644

835

1,293

1,324

1,412

5,529

2013 2012

Millions of Dollars

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 10.4Utah Exports: With and Without Gold

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

5

10

15

20

25

Total Exports Primary Metals (Gold) All Other Exports

Bil

lio

ns o

f D

oll

ars

Figure 11.1Consumer Price Index (CPI) Year-over-Year

Price Change and Relative Value of a Dollar

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics

19

60

19

62

19

64

19

66

19

68

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

e

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

$9.00

Annual Inflation Rate Dollar Equivalence Relative to 1960

An

nu

al

Infl

ati

on

Rate

Do

llar

Eq

uiv

ale

nce R

ela

tive t

o 1

96

0

In 1960, $1.00 could buy the same amount of goods as $8.00 can

today

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

0.7%

1.1% 1.1%

1.4%

0.9%0.8%

1.0%

0.3%

1.5%

1.1%

Figure 12.1Three-Year Average Annual

Population Growth Rate: 2011-2013

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Unit

ed S

tate

s

Mounta

in S

tate

s

Arizo

na

Colora

do

Idah

o

Monta

na

Nev

ada

New

Mex

ico

Uta

h

Wyo

min

g0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

2.0%

2.4%2.3%

2.8%

1.4%

2.9%

1.3% 1.3%

3.9%

2.0%

Figure 12.3Average Annual GDP Growth Rate:

2010-2013

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

United States

Arizona Colorado Idaho Montana Nevada New Mexico Utah Wyoming0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1.41.3

1.41.3 1.3

1.4

1.3

1.6

1.4

2.1

2.0

2.2

1.9

2.0

2.2

2.02.1 2.1

Workers Per Household Workers Per Family

Figure 12.7Workers per Household and per Family:

2013

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Unit

ed S

tate

s

Mounta

in S

tate

s

Arizo

na

Colora

do

Idah

o

Monta

na

Nev

ada

New

Mex

ico

Uta

h

Wyo

min

g0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

1.6%

1.9%1.8%

2.3%

1.9%

1.6%1.7%

0.3%

2.9%

1.0%

Figure 12.8Average Annual Employment Growth

Rate: 2010-2013

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Figure 13.12014 Kids Count Data Book:

Overall Ranking

Source: Annie E. Casey Foundation

NM

UT

AZ

CA

NV

OR

TX

OK

CO

WA

ID

MT

WY

ND

SD

MN

NE

KS

IA

MO

AR

LA

WI

IL INOH

FL

TN

KY

MS AL GA

SC

NC

VAWV

PA

NY

ME

AK

HI

MA

VT

NH

RI

CT

NJ

DEMD

MI

38-50

13-25

26-37

1-12

Source: Utah State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics f = forecast

Figure 15.1Utah Public Education Enrollment

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

Statewide Charters

Nu

mb

er

of

Stu

den

ts

Figure 15.2Percent Change in Public Education

Enrollment: 1977-2014

Source: Utah State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

Figure 15.5Largest Enrollment in Utah: 2014

Provo

Salt Lake

Washington

Weber

Nebo

Canyons

Jordan

Charters

Granite

Davis

Alpine

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000

16,600

23,615

27,118

31,188

31,393

33,676

50,806

61,435

67,660

69,139

73,570Chart Title

Number of Students

Source: Utah State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics

Figure 15.6Fastest Growing Enrollment in Utah from

2013 to 2014

Juab

Alpine

Park City

Cache

Duchesne

Wasatch

Tintic

Uintah

Morgan

Charters

Provo

-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

1.5%

1.6%

2.4%

2.6%

3.0%

3.0%

3.6%

4.2%

5.1%

12.0%

12.2%Chart Title

Source: Utah State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics

Figure 15.8Kindergarten Enrollment and Five Years

Prior Births

1994, 1999

1995, 2000

1996, 2001

1997, 2002

1998, 2003

1999, 2004

2000, 2005

2001, 2006

2002, 2007

2003, 2008

2004, 2009

2005, 2010

2006, 2011

2007, 2012

2008, 2013

2009, 2014

2010, 2015p

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

Births K Enrollment

Birth year, Kindergarten start year

Source: State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics and Interagency Common Data Committee (projections model)

Figure 15.9FY1994-2014 US and Utah per Pupil

Current Expenditures

1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

$10,000

$11,000

$12,000

U.S. Utah

Note: Figures are adjusted for inflation using FY2013 CPI. Source: USOE, School Finance, US Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Figure 15.10FY2011 Current Expenditures per Pupil

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

$20,000

$22,000

US: $10,658

Note: Figures are adjusted for inflation using FY2014 CPISource: USOE, School Finance, US Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Figure 15.11FY2011 Current Expenditures as a

Percent of Personal Income

Ala

ska

Wes

t Virgin

ia

Wyo

min

g

Mic

higan

Rhode Is

land

Ohio

New

Mex

ico

Connecticu

t

New

Ham

pshire

Del

awar

e

Monta

na

Ken

tuck

y

Texas

Mis

siss

ippi

Kan

sas

Uta

h

Iowa

Min

nesota

Arizo

na

Haw

aii

Tennes

see

Okl

ahom

a

Virgin

ia

Colora

do

Nort

h Dak

ota

South D

akota

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

U.S. 4.1%

Note: Figures are adjusted for inflation using FY2014 CPI Source: USOE, School Finance, US Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Figure 15.15FY2013 Total Enrollment and Current

Expenditures per Pupil

Alp

ine

Gra

nite

Charte

rs

Web

er

Was

hingto

n

Cache

Tooele

Box Eld

er

Uin

tah

Logan

Duch

esne

Park

City

South S

anpet

e

Mill

ard

Emer

y

Beave

r

Gra

nd

Nort

h Sum

mit

Way

ne

Piute

Dag

gett

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

Enrollment Per Pupil Expenditures

Note: Figures are adjusted for inflation using FY2014 CPISource: USOE, School Finance, US Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Pew Research Center, February 2014. “The Rising Cost of Not Going to College” (http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2014/02/11/the-rising-cost-of-not-going-to-college/)

Figure 16.2Difference in Median Annual Earnings of College and High School Graduates Ages

25 to 32 (in 2012 dollars)

1965 1979 1986 1995 2013

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$7,499

$9,690

$14,245

$15,780

$17,500

Figure 16.3Utahn’s Wage Earnings and

Unemployment by Educational Attainment

Less

Than

Hig

h Sch

ool

Hig

h Sch

ool

Some

College

or Ass

ociat

e Deg

ree

Bachel

or's D

egre

e

Gra

duate

or Pro

fess

ional

Deg

ree

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$22,290

$27,868$31,843

$44,668

$61,774

4.2% 4.3%2.4% 2.2%

1.8%

24.0%

12.0%

8.0%

5.0%

2.0%

Median Wages Unemployment Poverty

*Unemployment and Poverty rates for Graduate or Professional Degree are USHE estimates.Source: USHE, US Census (American Communities Survey), Department of Workforce Services, 2013.

Source: American Time Use Survey in Building Utah’s Wealth through Higher Education, USHE 2014

Employed Unemployed or Not in the Labor Force

All

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

61

124

97

75

132

95

82

141

102

113

183

132

Less than a High School Diploma High School Diploma

Some College or Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree and Higher

Min

ute

s/D

ay

Figure 16.4Amount of Time (mins/day) Mothers Spend with Children under age 18 by Employment Status and Education Level: 2003 – 2012

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2013c, Tables 1 and 2 in Building Utah’s Wealth through Higher Education, USHE 2014

Less

than

a H

igh S

chool D

iplo

ma

Hig

h Sch

ool Dip

lom

a

Some

College

or Ass

ociat

e Deg

ree

Bachel

or's D

egre

e an

d Hig

her

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

9%

17%

29%

42%

Figure 16.6Volunteer Rates by Educational

Attainment, Age 25 & Over

Figure 16.10Low Student Debt and Default Rates

Source: Project on Student Debt

52% of Utah college students borrow for college.

Student Loan Default Rates

Average Student

Loan Debt$29,400 $21,520

10% 8%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

Feeder Cattle500-550 pound feeder price/cwt.

HayPrice per ton

MilkPrice per cwt.

Figure 17.1Average Annual Price Received in Major

Utah Agricultural Sectors

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

12%

13%

14%

15%

16%

17%

18%

19%

Figure 17.2Farmer Share of Food Spending

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

Figure 18.1Utah Residential Construction Activity

Source: University of Utah, David Eccles School of Business, Bureau of Economic and Business Research

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014e

2015f

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Single-Family Units Multifamily Total

Figure 18.2Value of New Construction

Source: University of Utah, David Eccles School of Business, Bureau of Economic and Business Research

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014e

2015f

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

Residential Nonresidential Renovations Total

Mil

lio

ns

Figure 19.1Utah's Crude Oil Production, Pipeline

Imports, and Refinery Receipts Plotted with Wellhead Price

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014*

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

Production Pipeline Imports Refinery Receipts Wellhead Price

Th

ou

san

d b

arr

els

$/b

arr

el

Source: Utah Geological Survey; Utah Division of Oil, Gas, and Mining; U.S. Energy Information Administration

Figure 19.3Utah's Petroleum Product Production and Consumption Plotted with Motor

Gasoline and Diesel Prices

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014*

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

Production Consumption

Motor Gasoline - Regular Unleaded Price Diesel Price

Th

ou

san

d b

arr

els

$/b

arr

el

Source: Utah Geological Survey; U.S. Energy Information Administration

Figure 19.5Utah's Natural Gas Production and

Consumption Plotted with Wellhead and Residential Prices

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014*

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

$0.00

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

Gross Production Wet/Dry Production* Consumption

Wellhead Price Residential Price

Mil

lio

n c

ub

ic f

eet

*1980-1992 = wet natural gas, which includes NG liquids; 1993-2014 = dry natural gas

$/t

ho

usan

d c

ub

ic f

eet

Source: Utah Geological Survey; Utah Division of Oil, Gas, and Mining; U.S. Energy Information Administration

Figure 19.7Utah's Coal Production, Consumption, and

Exports Plotted with Mine Mouth Price

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014*

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

Production Consumption Exports (other states and countries) Mine Mouth Price

Th

ou

san

d s

ho

rt t

on

s

$/s

ho

rt t

on

Source: Utah Geological Survey; U.S. Energy Information Administration

Figure 19.9Utah's Electricity Net Generation and

Consumption Plotted with End-use Residential Price

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014*

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Net Generation Consumption Residential Price

Gig

aw

att

ho

urs

¢/k

ilo

watt

ho

ur

Source: Utah Geological Survey; U.S. Energy Information Administration

Figure 20.1Total Annual Value of Utah's Nonfuel

Mineral Production

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e

0

1

2

3

4

5

1.43 1.361.24

1.35

1.94

2.79

3.963.88

4.16

3.90

4.384.30

3.493.31

4.27

Bil

lio

ns o

f D

oll

ars

Source: U.S. Geological Survey; estimate by Utah Geological Survey e = estimate

Figure 20.2Value of Utah’s Annual Base Metal

Production

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,0001

,31

2.0

1,0

31

.0

1,1

60

.1

1,1

18

.4

1,3

84

.2

1,8

12

.7

1,4

11

.4

1,3

92

.3

1,0

04

.4

88

8.8

1,0

33

.2

92

8.9

80

7.3

88

9.6

1,4

31

.4

2,5

53

.5

3,4

04

.3

3,2

51

.1

3,2

19

.0

1,9

75

.6 2,3

21

.7

2,7

82

.5

2,1

88

.2

2,2

54

.2

2,2

53

.0

Mil

lio

ns o

f 2

01

4 D

oll

ars

Source: Utah Geological Survey

Figure 20.3Value of Utah’s Annual Precious Metal

Production

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

43

7.3

37

1.1 40

9.5 4

66

.0

49

1.1

48

3.8

49

5.9

42

8.1

22

5.3

21

7.1

29

2.0

32

1.4

22

6.6

17

6.1

19

9.4 2

55

.0

47

2.0

37

0.3

43

2.9

69

8.5

69

7.6

73

1.4

41

9.1

37

2.3

44

7.6

Mil

lio

ns o

f 2

01

4 D

oll

ars

Source: Utah Geological Survey

Figure 20.4Value of Utah’s Annual Industrial Metal

Production

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,6006

77

.0

69

6.0

74

3.6

70

6.3

65

9.5

66

6.4

66

0.3

78

8.3

77

9.7

82

8.4

69

0.2

72

0.4

74

5.7

71

5.6 81

0.7 9

26

.0

95

7.0 1

,05

9.2

1,1

68

.8

1,0

50

.5

1,0

46

.4

1,2

67

.8

1,3

31

.2

1,3

26

.0

1,3

10

.0

Mil

lio

ns o

f 2

01

4 D

oll

ars

Source: Utah Geological Survey

Figure 21.1Hotel Room Rents

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$730

$783

$869$829

$891

$1,053

$961

$1,063

$1,180

$1,263

$1,323

Mil

lio

ns o

f 2

01

3 D

oll

ars

Source: BEBR Analysis of Utah State Tax Commission data

Figure 21.2Utah National Park and Skier Visits

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

National Park Visits Skier Visits

Mil

lio

ns o

f V

isit

s

Sources: U.S. National Park Service and Ski Utah

Figure 22.1Registered 501(c)3 Organizations by Major

Purpose/Activity: September 2014

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,4001,329

1,293

743

643

577

414

269

152

17 7

Sources: Internal Revenue Service, Exempt Organizations Business Master File (2014, Sep); The Urban Institute, National Center for Charitable Statistics

Figure 22.2Revenue Sources of Utah 501(c)3

Organizations Filing Form 990

Sources: NCCS Core File (Public Charities, circa 2012); The Urban Institute, National Center for Charitable Statistics, http://nccsdataweb.urban.org/

Arts, Cul-ture &

Humani-ties

Environ-ment & An-

imals

Legal, Empt,

Food/Ag, Youth,

Housing & Public

Services

Recreation & Sports

Human Services

Interna-tional &

Foreign Af-fairs

Public, So-cietal Bene-

fit

Philan-thropy &

Grantmak-ing Fnds

Religion Re-lated

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

Contributions, Gifts & Grants Special Events Investments

Program Services & Contracts Dues, Net Sales & Other Income

Figure 22.5Health and Education Charities Compared to

the Whole Public Charity Sector

Note: Total Revenue includes all revenue reported on Part I, line 12 of Form 990. Total Expenses is the total reported from Part I, line 17 on Form 990. Total Assets includes cash, savings, property etc. reported from Part IV of Form 990. Program Services & Contracts includes revenue generated from fee for service programs and government fees and contracts.

Sources: NCCS Core File (Public Charities, circa 2012). The Urban Institute, National Center for Charitable Statistics, http://nccsdataweb.urban.org/

Health Care/Hospitals Total Nonprofit Sector Education$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

Total Revenue Total Expenses

Total Assets Program Services & Contracts

Mil

lio

ns

Figure 22.6Growth of Revenue & Assets of 501(c)3

Public Charities in Utah: September 2014

Note: Total Assets reported is the total on IRS Form 990, line 59 or Form 990-EZ, line 25. This includes the total value of real estate, accounts, pledges and grants receivable, inventories and other assets at the end of the organization’s fiscal year. Total Revenue reported includes the total from Line 12 of Form 990, which includes all income from contributions, gifts and grants, special events, investments, program services and contracts, membership dues, sales and fees for service.

Source: NCCS Core File (Public Charities, circa 2004-2012), Internal Revenue Service, Exempt Organizations Business Master File (501(c)(3) Public Charities, 2014, Sep & 2013, Dec), http://nccsdataweb.urban.org/

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

Total Assets Total Revenue Reported

Projected Growth in Expenses - Average 8.14% Projected Growth in Expenses High (14%)

Projected Growth in Expenses Low (4%) Total Expenses

Bil

lio

n

Figure 22.7Number and

Distribution of Utah Public Charities by

County

Sources: Internal Revenue Service, Exempt Organizations Business Master File (501(c)(3); The Urban Institute, National Center for Charitable Statistics

Box Elder56

Cache197

Rich4

Weber 354

Tooele48

Salt Lake2,901

Morgan6

Summit174

Utah614

Wasatch43 Duchesne

22 Uintah44

Juab5

Sanpete24

Carbon46

Emery14 Grand

57

Millard15

Piute3

Garfield13

Sevier3

Wayne12

San Juan26

Iron91

Beaver6

Washington233

Kane27

Davis 380

Daggett 0

Total Number: 5,459

Married or Common Law Divorced or Separated Never Married Widowed

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

38.6%

23.8%

37.2%

0.5%

51.9%

22.3%24.4%

1.3%

IGP Child Cohort At-Risk Child Cohort

Figure 23.1Children in Households by Marital Status of

Adults

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services IGP = Intergenerational Poverty

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

8.2%

22.1%

42.5%

27.5%

23.7%

26.6%

34.9%

14.9%

20.4%

54.4%

11.0%

0.4%

Utah *Adults in Poverty IGP Adults

Figure 23.2Lower Educational Attainment for Intergenerational Poverty Adults

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services IGP = Intergenerational Poverty

Employed 1 Quarter Employed 2 Quarters Employed 3 Quarters Employed All Year Not Employed

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

13.5%12.2% 12.2%

29.1%

33.0%67% of IGP Adults Worked in 2013

Figure 23.3Adults in Intergenerational Poverty Adult

Cohort: 2013

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services IGP = Intergenerational Poverty

All Utahns IGP Males IGP Adults IGP Females

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$41,064

$12,152$10,702

$9,927

Figure 23.4Average Annual Wages: 2013

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services IGP = Intergenerational Poverty

Utah Economically Disadvantaged At-Risk Child Cohort IGP Child Cohort

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

78%

68%

62%

50%

Figure 23.5High School Graduation Rates: SY2012

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services IGP = Intergenerational Poverty

Figure 24.1Rungs of the Economic Income and Wealth

“Ladder”

0%Bottom

20%

 40%

60%

 80%

 100%

Second

Middle

 Fourth

 Top

Figure 24.3Mobility Relative to the Panel Population,

Utah, 1994-2002 and 2003-2011

Sources: Utah State Tax Commission and Utah Foundation

Bottom Second Middle Fourth Top Bottom Second Middle Fourth Top 1994-2002 Group - 2003-2011 Group

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

53%

22%

12% 7% 6%

56%

23%

11%6% 4%

26%

35%

22%

12%5%

25%

37%

22%

11%5%

12%

26%

31%

22%

9%

11%

25%

33%

22%

9%

5%13%

26%

35%

22%

5%11%

25%

37%

22%

3% 5%10%

25%

58%

3% 4%9%

24%

60%

Bottom Quintile Second Quintile Middle Quintile Fourth Quintile Top Quintile

Quintile at Beginning of Period

Qu

inti

le a

t E

nd

of

Peri

od