utah associaon of realtors economic overview · september employment indicators underperformed...

UtahAssocia+onofRealtors

EconomicOverview

October10,2016

National Economic Conditions

September Employment Indicators Underperformed Expectations

Source: Wall Street Journal and Bureau of Labor Statistics

Indicator Expecta/on ActualTotalNonfarmPayrolls 175,000 156,000UnemploymentRate 4.9% 5.0%PrivatePayrolls 170,000 167,000MonthlyAverageHourlyWageGrowth

0.3% 0.2%

LaborForcePar+cipa+on 62.9% 62.9%

National Job Growth

-900

-700

-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

8.7 Million Jobs Lost

14.4 Million Jobs Recovered

Payr

oll C

hang

e 00

0’s

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

SeptemberAddsLower-Than-ExpectedNumberofJobs

149

295280

271

168

233

186

144

24

271

252

167 156

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16

PayrollCha

nge00

0’s


National Employment Change

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted

Percent Change in National Employment by Industry: Sept 2015 to Sept 2016

0.7%

1.6%

2.4%

2.7%

2.9%

2.0%

0.3%

1.6%

-0.4%

3.4%

-13.8%

-16% -14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6%

Government

Other Services

Leisure & Hospitality

Ed. & Health Serv.

Prof. & Bus. Serv.

Financial Activity

Information

Trade, Trans., Utilities

Manufacturing

Construction

Ntl. Res. & Mining

Total: 1.7%

National Employment Change Total Change in Number of Jobs by Industry in Thousands: Sept 2015 to Sept 2016

145

90

366

608

582

166

8

420

-47

218

-109

-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Government

Other Services


Ed. & Health Serv.

Prof. & Bus. Serv.

Financial Activity

Information


Manufacturing

Construction

Ntl. Res. & Mining

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted

Unemployment Rate Remains Low

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

5.0%inSeptember

Labor Force Participation Rate Among Lowest in Over 35 Years

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Seasonally adjusted

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Mar 2000 67.3%

Apr 1978 63.0%

Sep 2016 62.9%

%

Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession

Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

Thou

sand

s

Slower Recovery than Past Recessions

Source: fred.stlouisfed.org

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Inde

x

Periods from Value Scaled to 100

2008 Recession 2001 Recession 1990 Recession

1981 Recession 1980 Recession 1973 Recession

YearlyWageGrowthUpSlightlyinSeptember

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Growth rate calculated using real chained 1982-1984 dollars

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

2007-2015 Average

2.4%

Sept. 2016 2.6%

Consumption Drives Growth

-5%

-3%

-1%

1%

3%

5%

2012 2013 2014

Fixed Investment

Inventories

Net Exports

Government

Personal Consumption

Con

trib

utio

n to

GD

P G

row

th

2015 2016

Total GDP Growth

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

2QGDP1.4%

Consumer Confidence Remains Moderate

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

Mar

201

2

Jun

2012

Sep

2012

Dec

201

2

Mar

201

3

Jun

2013

Sep

2013

Dec

201

3

Mar

201

4

Jun

2014

Sep

2014

Dec

201

4

Mar

201

5

Jun

2015

Sept

201

5

Dec

201

5

Mar

201

6

Jun

2016

Sep

2016

Above 110 indicates economic prosperity

Source: U.S. CCI from The Conference Board


Growth in Consumer Spending Under Par

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Perc

ent

Personal Consumption Expenditure Yearly Percent Change

Inflation Remains Under Target


-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

Aug

201

1

Nov

201

1

Feb

2012

May

201

2

Aug

201

2

Nov

201

2

Feb

2013

May

201

3

Aug

201

3

Nov

201

3

Feb

2014

May

201

4

Aug

201

4

Nov

201

4

Feb

2015

May

201

5

Aug

201

5

Nov

201

5

Feb

2016

May

201

6

Aug

201

6

U.S. Consumer Price Index Yearly Change Rate

U.S. Core CPI vs Core PCE

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis; Core CPI and Core PCE represent all items less food and energy

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Perc

ent

Yearly Change Rate

U.S. Core CPI U.S. Core PCE

TheU.S.DollarisStrong

65

75

85

95

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Major Currencies

Source: Federal Reserve

1973 = 100

Euro compared to U.S. Dollar

$0.80

$0.90

$1.00

$1.10

$1.20

$1.30

$1.40

$1.50

$1.60 20

00

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

USD

PARITY

$1.39

Source: Investing.com

$1.05

US Dollar Compared to Chinese Yuan Inverted Scale

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis

$6.00

$6.50

$7.00

$7.50

$8.00

$8.50

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2010Chinaallowstheyuantorise

Aug2015China

devaluestheyuanbylargestamountin20years

2001ChinajoinsWTO 2005

Chinaallowstheyuantorise

2008China

stopstheyuan’srise

British Pound Drops to New Low Following Brexit Vote

$1.20

$1.30

$1.40

$1.50

$1.60

$1.70

$1.80 20

10

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

USD

Source: Investing.com

Sources: Baker Hughes and U.S. Energy Information Administration; WTI weekly averages Note: Total count includes oil and gas rigs

Drop in Oil Prices Causing Drop in Oil Production

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

$110

$120 20

13

2014

2015

2016

Oil Prices Active Oil Rigs

Source: global-rates.com

-0.10%

-0.40%

-0.50%

-0.65%

-0.75%

JapanEuropean

CentralBank Sweden Denmark Switzerland

Central Banks with Negative Interest Rates

The Fed is Under Pressure

Federal Funds Rate Forecast (September 2016)

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

2016 2017 2018 LongRun2019

Fed Funds Rate Longer Run Projections

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50

3.75

4.00

4.25

4.502012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Average

Utah is One of the Fastest Growing States in the Country

Percent Change in Population for States: 2012 to 2013 U.S. Rate = 0.7%

Source: U.S Census Bureau

Population Loss

NM 0.1%

UT 1.6%

AZ 1.2%

CA 0.9%

NV 1.3%

OR 0.8%

TX 1.5%

OK 0.9%

CO 1.5%

WA 1.1%

ID 1.0%

MT 1.0%

WY 1.0%

ND 3.1%

SD 1.3%

MN 0.8%

NE 0.7%

KS 0.3%

IA 0.5%

MO 0.3%

AR 0.3%

LA 0.5%

WI 0.3%

IL 0.1%

IN 0.5%

OH 0.2%

FL 1.2%

TN 0.6%

KY 0.4%

MS 0.2%

AL 0.3%

GA 0.8%

SC 1.1%

NC 1.0%

VA 0.9%

WV -0.1%

PA 0.1%

NY 0.4%

ME -0.01%

AK 0.7%

HI 1.0%

MA 0.7%

VT 0.1%

NH 0.1%

RI 0.1%

CT 0.1%

NJ 0.4%

DE 0.9%

MD 0.7%

MI 0.1%

.075% to 1.10%

0.5% to 0.9%

DC 2.1%

1.15% or more

0% to 0.4%

KS 0.3%

Utah Economic Conditions




Population Loss

NM 0.1%

UT 1.6%

AZ 1.2%

CA 0.9%

NV 1.3%

OR 0.8%

TX 1.5%

OK 0.9%

CO 1.5%

WA 1.1%

ID 1.0%

MT 1.0%

WY 1.0%

ND 3.1%

SD 1.3%

MN 0.8%

NE 0.7%

KS 0.3%

IA 0.5%

MO 0.3%

AR 0.3%

LA 0.5%

WI 0.3%

IL 0.1%

IN 0.5%

OH 0.2%

FL 1.2%

TN 0.6%

KY 0.4%

MS 0.2%

AL 0.3%

GA 0.8%

SC 1.1%

NC 1.0%

VA 0.9%

WV -0.1%

PA 0.1%

NY 0.4%

ME -0.01%

AK 0.7%

HI 1.0%

MA 0.7%

VT 0.1%

NH 0.1%

RI 0.1%

CT 0.1%

NJ 0.4%

DE 0.9%

MD 0.7%

MI 0.1%

.075% to 1.10%

0.5% to 0.9%

DC 2.1%

1.15% or more

0% to 0.4%

KS 0.3%

Utah Accolades •  CNBC:UtahNamed2016TopStateforBusiness

•  Forbes:UtahNamed#1BestStateforBusiness(topstop5outofpast6years)

•  WalletHub:UtahNamed2016StatewithBestEconomy•  CNBC:SaltLakeCity(18),Ogden(7),andProvo(2)NamedAmong

Top20MetroAreastoStartaBusinessinU.S.•  Standard&Poor’s,Moody’sInvestorsService,andFitchRa+ngs:

UtahOneofonly10StateswithAAABondRa+ng

Utah Population Sixth Fastest Growing in U.S.

Percent Change: 2014 to 2015 U.S. Rate = 0.8%


Population Loss

0.8% to 1.4% (at or above U.S. rate) 0.3% to 0.7%

1.5% or more

0.0% to 0.2%

NM 0.0%

UT 1.7%

AZ 1.5%

CA 0.9%

NV 1.9%

OR 1.5%

TX 1.8%

OK 0.8%

CO 1.9%

WA 1.5%

ID 1.2%

MT 0.9%

WY 0.3%

ND 2.3%

SD 0.6%

MN 0.6%

NE 0.7%

KS 0.3%

IA 0.5%

MO 0.3%

AR 0.4%

LA 0.5%

WI 0.2%

IL -0.2%

IN 0.3%

OH 0.1%

FL 1.8%

TN 0.8%

KY 0.3%

MS 0.0%

AL 0.3%

GA 1.2%

SC 1.4%

NC 1.0%

VA 0.7%

WV -0.3%

PA 0.1%

NY 0.2%

ME -0.1%

AK 0.2%

HI 0.8%

MA 0.6%

VT -0.1%

NH 0.2%

RI 0.1%

CT -0.1%

NJ 0.2%

DE 1.1%

MD 0.5%

MI 0.1%

DC 1.9%

KS 0.3%

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

0

300,000

600,000

900,000

1,200,000

1,500,000

1,800,000

2,100,000

2,400,000

2,700,000

3,000,000

3,300,000 19

50

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population

35,934

2,995,919

15,744

Utah Population and Components of Change

Sources: Utah Governor’s Office of Management & Budget, U.S. Census Bureau

Tota

l Pop

ulat

ion

Com

ponents of Population Change

Utah Population Growth Rates

By County 2014 to 2015

State Average = 1.7%

Increase of 1.0% to 1.6%


Increase of 2.5% or Greater


Box Elder 1.2%

Cache 2.1%

Rich 0.8%

Weber 1.3%

Tooele 2.2%

Salt Lake 1.3%

Morgan 4.2%

Summit 1.3%

Daggett -1.0%

Utah 2.4%

Wasatch 5.0% Duchesne

2.7% Uintah 2.6%

Juab 1.3%

Sanpete 1.5%

Carbon -0.7%

Emery -2.5% Grand

0.7%

Millard 0.7%

Piute 2.1%

Garfield -0.1%

Sevier 0.7%

Wayne -0.8%

San Juan 3.4%

Iron 2.3%

Beaver -1.5%

Washington 2.5%

Kane -1.4%

Davis 1.9%

Population Loss

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Source: Historical – U.S. Census Bureau; Projections - Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget

Utah’s Population Continues to Grow

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

1900-2060

Percent Change in Employment for States: August 2015 to August 2016 U.S. Rate = 1.7%

Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

NM 0.2%

UT 3.1%

AZ 2.0%

CA 2.3%

NV 2.9%

OR 3.3%

TX 1.6%

OK -0.4%

CO 2.8%

WA 2.8%

ID 3.3%

MT -0.4%

WY -3.3%

ND -1.7%

SD 2.4%

MN 1.4%

NE 0.8%

KS -0.6%

IA 2.0%

MO 1.0%

AR 1.4%

LA -0.9%

WI 1.4%

IL 0.7%

IN 1.0%

OH 1.4%

FL 3.2%

TN 2.2%

KY 1.0%

MS 1.1%

AL 1.0%

GA 2.4%

SC 2.5%

NC 1.8%

VA 1.9%

WV 0.2%

PA 1.0%

NY 1.1%

ME 0.8%

AK 0.3%

HI 1.7%

MA 1.9%

VT 2.1%

NH 2.0%

RI 1.2%

CT 1.1%

NJ 1.3%

DE 2.8%

MD 1.8%

MI 1.8%

DC 1.7%

Loss

1.7% to 2.5% (at or above the U.S. rate) 2.6% or more

1.0% to 1.6%

0.0% to 0.9%

Utah Employment Growth 4th Highest in the Nation

Utah Total Employment at New Highs

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500 19

95

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Thou

sand

s of

Em

ploy

ees

Total Nonfarm Employment

Lossof92,000jobsfrom2007-2009

Gainof253,000jobsfromlowin

2009

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Total nonfarm seasonally adjusted Note: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand

UT Industries - Employment Gains

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Percent Change in Utah Employment by Industry: August 2015 to August 2016

Total: 3.3%

1.2%

2.5%

4.3%

4.8%

1.4%

8.3%

0.0%

3.2%

3.4%

6.0%

-8.7%

-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

Government

Other Services


Ed. & Health Serv.

Prof. & Bus. Serv.

Financial Activity

Information


Manufacturing

Construction

Ntl. Res. & Mining

RealEstateGrowth:10.1%

UT Industries Seeing Growth


Total Change in Utah Employment by Industry: August 2015 to August 2016

Total: 44,800

2,600

1,000

6,000

8,600

2,800

6,600

0

8,600

4,200

5,300

-900

-3,000 -1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000

Government

Other Services


Ed. & Health Serv.

Prof. & Bus. Serv.

Financial Activity

Information


Manufacturing

Construction

Ntl. Res. & Mining

RealEstateGrowth:

1,900jobs

Utah Employment

Change Rates By County

Aug 2015 to Aug 2016

State Rate = 3.3%

1.0% to 3.2%

0.0% to 0.9%

4.0% or more

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, Not seasonally adjusted

3.3% to 3.9%

Loss

Box Elder 5.1% Cache 3.3% Rich

-0.9%

Weber 3.6%

Tooele 4.2%

Salt Lake 3.6%

Morgan4.0%

Daggett 0.6%

Utah 5.9%


-9.4% Uintah -12.9%

Juab 4.5%

Sanpete 1.8%

Carbon -4.6%

Emery -0.1% Grand

3.0%

Millard 0.5%

Piute -5.6%

Garfield 2.7%

Sevier 2.0%

Wayne 1.3%

San Juan 0.5%

Iron 4.0%

Beaver -0.7%

Washington 7.1%

Kane 4.6%

Davis 2.6%

Summit 3.7%

August 2016 U.S. Rate = 4.9% NH 3.0%

NM 6.6%

UT 3.7%

AZ 5.8%

CA 5.5%

NV 6.3%

OR 5.4%

TX 4.7%

OK 5.1%

CO 3.8%

WA 5.7%

ID 3.8%

MT 4.3%

WY 5.5%

ND 3.1%

SD 2.9%

MN 4.0%

NE 3.2%

KS 4.3%

IA 4.2%

MO 5.1%

AR 3.9%

LA 6.3%

WI 4.2%

IL 5.5%

IN 4.5%

OH 4.7%

FL 4.7%

TN 4.4%

KY 4.9%

MS 6.0%

AL 5.4%

GA 4.9%

SC 5.1%

NC 4.6%

VA 3.9%

WV 5.7%

PA 5.7%

NY 4.8%

ME 4.0%

AK 6.8%

HI 3.4%

MA 3.9%

VT 3.3%

RI 5.6%

CT 5.6%

NJ 5.3%

DE 4.3%

MD 4.3%

MI 4.5%

DC 6.0%

6.0% or more

4.0% to 4.9%

5.0% to 5.5% (above the U.S rate)

3.9% or less

5.6% to 5.9%

Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

UT Unemployment Rates Among Lowest in the Nation

Utah Unemployment

Rates By County

August 2016

State Rate = 3.9%


3.8% to 5.9%

6.0% to 7.9%

3.1% or lower

3.2% to 3.7%

8.0% or greater

Box Elder 346%

Cache 2.8%

Rich 3.1%

Tooele 3.7%

Morgan 3.1%

Summit 3.1%

Utah 2.9%


8.8% Uintah 9.5%

Juab 3.7%

Sanpete 4.0%

Carbon 5.8%

Emery 6.3% Grand

5.6%

Millard 3.4%

Piute 6.0%

Garfield 8.4%

Sevier 4.3%

Wayne 7.9%

San Juan 7.9%

Iron 4.4%

Beaver 5.7%

Washington 3.7%

Kane 3.8%

Daggett 5.0% Davis 2.9%

Salt Lake 3.0%

Weber 3.7%

Utah Personal Income Growth 3rd Highest in the Nation


Percent Change in Personal Income : Q12015 – Q12016 U.S. = 4.4%; UT = 5.7% NH

6.7%

NM 2.9%

UT 5.7%

AZ 4.8%

CA 5.4%

NV 5.3%

OR 5.6%

TX 2.7%

OK 0.8%

CO 4.3%

WA 5.6%

ID 3.6%

MT 2.3%

WY -1.2%

ND -2.8%

SD 3.2%

MN 2.8%

NE 2.5%

KS 3.0%

IA 3.2%

MO 4.4%

AR 4.7%

LA 2.4%

WI 4.4%

IL 4.2%

IN 4.8%

OH 4.7%

FL 5.1%

TN 5.7%

KY 4.8%

MS 3.7%

AL 3.3%

GA 4.9%

SC 5.6%

NC 5.0%

VA 4.7%

WV 1.8%

PA 4.2%

NY 4.7%

ME 5.9%

AK 0.9%

HI 4.7%

MA 5.1%

VT 4.3%

RI 4.6%

CT 4.0%

NJ 4.2%

DE 4.2%

MD 4.7%

MI 5.6%

DC 4.3%

4.4% to 4.9% (at or above the U.S. rate)

3.0% to 4.3%

5.0% or more

0.0% to 2.9%

Decrease

Utah Personal Income Growth Highest in the Nation


Percent Change in Personal Income : Q1 2016 – Q2 2016 U.S. = 1.0%; UT = 1.4% NH

1.1%

NM 0.9%

UT 1.4%

AZ 1.2%

CA 1.0%

NV 1.2%

OR 1.3%

TX 0.9%

OK 0.5%

CO 1.1%

WA 1.1%

ID 1.3%

MT 0.9%

WY 0.5%

ND 0.5%

SD 0.5%

MN 0.9%

NE 1.3%

KS 1.2%

IA 1.2%

MO 1.0%

AR 1.1%

LA 1.2%

WI 1.0%

IL 1.0%

IN 1.1%

OH 1.0%

FL 1.2%

TN 1.0%

KY 0.8%

MS 0.8%

AL 0.8%

GA 0.9%

SC 0.9%

NC 1.1%

VA 1.0%

WV 1.0%

PA 1.0%

NY 1.0%

ME 0.7%

AK 0.4%

HI 0.9%

MA 1.1%

VT 0.8%

RI 0.9%

CT 1.1%

NJ 1.0%

DE 1.1%

MD 1.1%

MI 1.1%

DC 4.3%

1.0% to 1.1% (at or above the U.S. rate)

0.6% to 0.9%

1.2% or more

0.0% to 0.5%

Decrease

Utah Median Household Income 10th Highest in the Nation

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

2015 U.S. = $56,516; 2015 Utah = $66,258

NM $45,119

UT $66,258

AZ $52,248

CA $63,636

NV $52,008

OR $60,834

TX $56,473

OK $47,077

CO $66,596

WA $67,243

ID $51,624

MT $51,395

WY $60,925

ND $57,415

SD $55,065

MN $68,730

NE $60,474

KS $54,865

IA $60,855

MO $59,196

AR $42,798

LA $45,922

WI $55,425

IL $60,413 IN

$51,983

OH $53,301

FL $48,825

TN $47,330

KY $42,387

MS $40,037

AL $44,509

GA $50,768

SC $46,360

NC $50,797

VA $61,486

WV $42,824

PA 60,389

NY $58,005

AK $75,112

HI $64,514

MA $67,861

VT $59,494

NH $75,675

RI $55,701 CT

$72,889

NJ $68,357

DE $57,756

MD $73,594

MI $54,203

DC $70,071

$56,516 to $64,999 (At or above U.S.)

$50,000 to $56,515

$65,000 or more

$45,000 to $49,999

$44,999 or less

ME $50,756

Consumer Price Index United States vs. Wasatch Front

Year Over Year Change

Source: U.S. CPI from National Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wasatch Front CPI from Cicero Group

-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%

Aug2011

Nov2011

Feb2012

May2012

Aug2012

Nov2012

Feb2013

May2013

Aug2013

Nov2013

Feb2014

May2014

Aug2014

Nov2014

Feb2015

May2015

Aug2015

Nov2015

Feb2016

May2016

Aug2016

UnitedStatesCPI

ZionsBankWasatchFrontCPI

US Consumer Confidence Index vs. UT Consumer Attitude Index

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

Mar

201

2

Jun

2012

Sep

2012

Dec

201

2

Mar

201

3

Jun

2013

Sep

2013

Dec

201

3

Mar

201

4

Jun

2014

Sep

2014

Dec

201

4

Mar

201

5

Jun

2015

Sep

2015

Dec

201

5

Mar

201

6

Jun

2016

Sep

2016

Zions Bank Utah Consumer Attitude Index United States Consumer Confidence Index

Source: U.S. CCI from The Conference Board and Utah CAI from Cicero Group

Above 110 indicates economic prosperity




Population Loss

NM 0.1%

UT 1.6%

AZ 1.2%

CA 0.9%

NV 1.3%

OR 0.8%

TX 1.5%

OK 0.9%

CO 1.5%

WA 1.1%

ID 1.0%

MT 1.0%

WY 1.0%

ND 3.1%

SD 1.3%

MN 0.8%

NE 0.7%

KS 0.3%

IA 0.5%

MO 0.3%

AR 0.3%

LA 0.5%

WI 0.3%

IL 0.1%

IN 0.5%

OH 0.2%

FL 1.2%

TN 0.6%

KY 0.4%

MS 0.2%

AL 0.3%

GA 0.8%

SC 1.1%

NC 1.0%

VA 0.9%

WV -0.1%

PA 0.1%

NY 0.4%

ME -0.01%

AK 0.7%

HI 1.0%

MA 0.7%

VT 0.1%

NH 0.1%

RI 0.1%

CT 0.1%

NJ 0.4%

DE 0.9%

MD 0.7%

MI 0.1%

.075% to 1.10%

0.5% to 0.9%

DC 2.1%

1.15% or more

0% to 0.4%

KS 0.3%

Real Estate and

Construction

Value of Private Nonresidential Construction Approaching Pre-Recession Levels

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and U.S. Census Bureau; seasonally adjusted

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000 20

02

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Mill

ions

of D

olla

rs

Total Private Residential Nonresidential

Utah Median Home Sale Price Reaching Pre-Recession Highs

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$220,000

$240,000

$260,000

$280,000

$300,000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Utah U.S.

Source: Graphiq.com reporting data from CoreLogic

Median Home Sale Price

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$220,000

$240,000

$260,000

$280,000

$300,000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Utah U.S. Idaho Wyoming

Source: Graphiq.com reporting data from CoreLogic

Utah Maintains Lower Percentage of Foreclosures than Nation

Source: Graphiq.com

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Percentage of total homes in foreclosure process

U.S. Utah

Number of Foreclosures Dropping

Source: Graphiq.com

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Percentage of total homes in foreclosure process

U.S. Utah Idaho Wyoming

U.S. Annual Building Permits New Housing Units by Permit Type

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and U.S. Census Bureau

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Single-Family Units Multifamily

Utah Residential Construction Activity Continues to Rise

Source: University of Utah, David Eccles School of Business, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

e

Single-Family Units Multifamily Total

2016

f

Utah Value of New Construction Increasing

Sources: University of Utah, David Eccles School of Business, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, State of UT Revenue Assumptions Working Group, Moody’s Economy.com, and HIS Global Insight

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

e

Mill

ions

Residential Nonresidential Renovations Total

2016

f

e= estimate f = forecast

Utah Economic Indicators 2014 - 2016

Sources: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group, Moody’s Economy.com, IHS Global Insights

e = estimate f = forecast

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

Retail Sales

Home Prices

Personal Income

Unemployment Rate

Nonfarm Employment

Population

2014 2015e 2016f

Robert Spendlove Economic and Public Policy Officer

Email: [email protected]

Phone: 801-560-5394 ZionsBank,ADivisionofZB,N.A.MemberFDIC.

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