using simulation to validate emergency management plans
TRANSCRIPT
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Using Simulations to Validate Emergency Management Plans
James Rollins, M.Ed.
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a little about me• 27 years experience in training and education• Concurrent experience as a military officer with 10 years active duty• Commanded Homeland Response Force• Experience with multiple incident responses including Oso• Deputy Commander of Seattle District Corps of Engineers for Howard
Hanson Dam Rehabilitation Project• Afghanistan 2005
• Experience in education, HR and manufacturing management• Experienced Lean practitioner• Masters Degree in Adult Education – Western Washington University
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Problem with the HSEEP Model• Criterion referenced competency model - Great evaluation
framework• But it is a not a good “Play” framework for staffs• Functional and full-scale exercises are difficult to organize• They are expensive and do not achieve sufficient scale to
adequately validate emergency plans• FSE do not sufficiently test adaptive capacities at local,
regional, state and federal level• FSE are difficult to iterate, repeat, back up and try again.• Computer simulation decision spaces are superior
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Discussion Points• When managing the consequences of a disaster, we are working within a complex ecosystem of interactions between multiple “layers” of entities• Collaboration is the primary way we solve problems in a complex environment where nobody can be in charge• Play is indispensable for developing collaboration skills• Simulations enable playing and learning in a manner that helps participants to develop trust and empathy
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Complexity
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Transportation Layer
Complexity can be
thought of as layers.
Each interacting inside and
in between each other all at once. Cyber - Communications Layer
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It is complicated!So, how do we effectively work together?
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Adaptive Management• Communicative Planning versus Command and Control• Different from rational – reductive planning• Typically used in multiple jurisdiction, multiple agency, multiple function incident responses• Purpose is problem solving• Just-in-time collaborative organization• Just-in-time planning oriented• Relies on experimentation
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Initial IncidentCommandMeeting
TacticsMeeting
PreparefortheTacticsMeeting
Command &General StaffMeeting
IncidentCommander&StaffDevelop/UpdateObjectivesMeeting
IncidentBrie ng(useICS-201)
Initial ResponseandAssessment
Noti cations
Initia
lRes
pons
e
BOOM!
Preparefor thePlanning Meeting
PlanningMeeting
Prepare&ApproveIncidentActionPlan
OperationsBrie ng
ExecutePlanAnd AssessProgress
NewOperationalPeriodBegin
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5 Factors for Effective Collaboration•Recognize and communicate common vulnerabilities• Involve everyone that has “A dog in the fight.”•Use good problem solving tools•Replace belief with knowledge•Maintain and environment of trust
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Trust
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Recognize and communicate common vulnerabilities• Immediacy• Magnitude• Risk requires an emotional response
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Involve everyone that has “A dog in the fight”
• Group diversity is essential to enhance problem solving• Include everyone associated with the problem• Helps to fully understand the complexities of the
problem (versus reducing or distilling the problem)• Pay me now or pay me later . . .
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Use good problem solving tools• Rules to correct power imbalances within the group• Cognitive map• Value chain• Common perspective is often the most inclusive
perspective
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Replace belief with knowledge• Belief is the acceptance of something as the truth
without a basis of fact• Knowledge is the acceptance of something as the truth
on the basis of fact or direct experience• Experimentation – scientific method• Modeling
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Maintain an environment of trust• Trust is the knowledge that each member of the group is
dependable and will deliver on expectations• Everyone must be concerned with the problem and
share the vulnerability• People involved must be committed to solving the
problem• People and the agencies they represent must have a
track record of results that demonstrate their competence• Notice that all of these are observable behaviors?
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Reasons Why Play is Indispensable• Play is the basis for human
trust, adaptive behavior and acceptance of risk• Play signals• Simulation play is play• Nothing lights up the brain
more than play
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Use simulations to facilitate play• Use predictive models• End-to-end
visualization of the ecosystem• Ability to interact with
the variables in order to change initial conditions and see how they play out• See where bottlenecks
arise
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Predictive ModelsComputer Aided Simulations• Systems dynamics modeling• Agent modeling• Hybrid models
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Stock•Resource•Has a Potential
Flow
Feedback
Flow dynamics follow a simple
mathematical relationship
that represents a rate of flow
such as “consumption
”
Agents are individual
entities that follow
behavioral rules. Often used to load
systems models
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Visual - Interaction
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Below: players interact with panels to input decisions
Above: the decisions interact and are played forward on a end-to-end visual
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To summarize• It’s complicated! The interactions in, and in-between layers are complex and difficultto predict • Collaboration is the primary tool we use to address systemic problems• Play is necessary to develop trust• Simulations are a more effective staff training tool than full-scale or functional exercises.
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