using scenarios in the california water plan
DESCRIPTION
Using Scenarios in the California Water Plan. Water Plan Scenarios Represent Baseline Conditions. Plausible during planning horizon under consideration Influence future water management decisions The water community has little control over. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
1
Using Scenarios in the Using Scenarios in the California Water PlanCalifornia Water Plan
Uncertain Trends
0
10
20
30
40
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Historical
Curent Trends
Less ResourceIntensive
More ResourceIntensive
2
Water Plan Scenarios Water Plan Scenarios Represent Baseline ConditionsRepresent Baseline Conditions
● Plausible during planning horizon under consideration
● Influence future water management decisions
● The water community has little control over
3
Uncertainties Affecting California Uncertainties Affecting California Water Management Water Management
● Future climate change● Vulnerable flood management system● Severity of the next drought● Collapsing Delta ecosystem● Growing population● Invasive species
5
Scenarios Organized Scenarios Organized Around UncertaintyAround UncertaintyEconomic
and Financial
Institutional and Political
Natural Systems
Technology
Cultural Practices
7
A Scenario Analysis Has Four Key ElementsA Scenario Analysis Has Four Key Elements
Exogenous Factors (X) Management Levers (L)
Uncertain factors outside of the control of water managers — Basis for “Scenarios”
Water management options — “Response Packages”
Relationships (R) Performance Measures (M)
Mapping between combinations of exogenous factors (X) and levers (L) to outcomes (M) — a “Model”
Water outcomes of interest
X, L MR
X, L MR
8
Advisory Committee Advisory Committee Explored Scenario ThemesExplored Scenario Themes
● “CHALLENGING CONDITIONS” scenarios “Cascading Catastrophes” “Armageddon” “World Falls Apart” “Gloom and Doom”
● “OPTIMISTIC OUTLOOK” scenarios “Optimal Multiple Benefits” “Eureka!” “Native Control” “Blue Skies”
9
Draft Assumptions and Draft Assumptions and Estimates ReportEstimates Report
● http://www.waterplan.water.ca.gov/cwpu2009/ae
Includes narratives for 3 scenarios
11
Scenario 1Scenario 1Current TrendsCurrent Trends
● Recent trends continue for the following: Population growth and development patterns Agricultural and industrial production Environmental water dedication and protection
● Climate Change consistent with IPCC and Climate Action Team (Middle Projections)
● Improved regional water management, but lacking statewide integration
12
Scenario 2Scenario 2● Population growth lower than current trends● Higher housing density● Higher agricultural and industrial production● More water for the environment● Climate change follows less severe
projections● Improved regional water management with
statewide integration
13
Scenario 3 Scenario 3
● Population growth higher than current trends● Lower housing density● Steeper decline in agricultural land● Less water for the environment ● Climate change follows more severe
projections● No additional regional water management
14
Activities for TodayActivities for Today Discussion of storylinesDiscussion of storylines
● Are the storylines logical?● Are they plausible?● Will they help us examine management
responses?● Are there relevant theme-based names?
15
Next Steps on ScenariosNext Steps on Scenarios
● Refine scenarios narratives using comments on Draft Assumptions and Estimates Report (copies available)
● Work through SWAN to refine scenario quantification within WEAP
● Initial scenario quantification for Update 2009 Public Review Draft (December)
16
Reference InformationReference Information
● Draft Assumptions and Estimates for Update 2009 http://www.waterplan.water.ca.gov/cwpu2009/ae Includes narratives for 3 scenarios
Rich Juricich [email protected] (916) 651-9225