using predictive analytics to improve student success (166286107)
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7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)
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Predictive Analytics, !Choice Architecture!and Bespoke Education
Tristan Denley Provost and Vice President for Academic Affairs
Austin Peay State University
[email protected]: @TDenley
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R e p
o r
t i n g
D a s
h b
o a
r d
B I
F o
r e c
a s
t i n
g
P r
e d
i c t i v
e A
n a l y
t i c s
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POLLHow do you currently use data on your campus?Where would you place your self on this
spectrum?
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CHAT How many choices do students have to make to
navigate your curriculum?Do you think that they have a clear path tograduation?
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BANNER
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! Global centrality! Major centrality! Grade prediction
What ingredients
go into the ratings
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• Predicts grades to within !0.6 of a letter grade on
average• Correctly distinguishes
whether a student will earn
an ABC or DF 92% of the
time
GRADE PREDICTIONS
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Five Star Course
!Global centrality
! Major centrality! Grade prediction
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COMPLETE COLLEGE
AMERICA
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• Grade predictions show similar accuracy in
both university and community college setting at
every level.
• ABC% in Fall 2012 courses 5.3SD higher
than Fall 2010 courses campus-wide. • ABC% in Fall 2012 courses 7.7SD higher
than Fall 2010 for Pell Grant recipients.
THE DATA SO FAR . . .
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Making Advising MORE personal
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QUESTIONS
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Institutional uses for the data
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January
August
Schedule Building is
Critical
Students should take
the courses they need not what’s left over
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Early Alert System
Course Transcript
Campus Engagement
Data
Student
Record Data
Predicted Semester
Grades
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
Graduates at APSU
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WHAT
ABOUTMAJORS?
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DATA
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Fingerprint Courses capture the distinctiveflavour of each major
Predicted Grades
Major
FingerprintGPA
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Semester 1PHYS 2110PHYS 2111MATH 1910
Semester 2PHYS 2120PHYS 2121MATH 1920
Semester 3PHYS 3550MATH 2110CSCI 2000
Semester 4PHYS3005PHYS 3700MATH 3110
Physics Key Classes
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Graduates’ Transcript Analysis
Number of F’s on transcript in KEY classes
P e
r c e n t a g e
o f
g r a d u a t e s
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AgricultureBiologyComputer SciHHP
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Program DescriptionDegree Map
Successful Courses
Job Cloud
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Program DescriptionDegree Map
Successful Courses
Job Cloud
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QUESTIONS
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Tristan Denley Provost and Vice President for Academic Affairs
Austin Peay State [email protected]: @TDenley