using ocean observing systems and local ecological ......downwelling% upwelling downwelling%...
TRANSCRIPT
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Physical and Biological Oceanographers Josh Kohut (Rutgers) Matt Oliver (U. Delaware)
Industry/Outreach Greg DiDomenico (Garden State Seafood) Eleanor A. Bochenek (Rutgers) Chris Roebuck Dan & Lars Axelsson Lunds Fisheries Seafreeze ltd John Hoey (NOAA/NMFS/NEFSC)
Fishery Scientists/Ecologists John Manderson (NOAA/NMFS/NEFSC) Olaf Jensen (Rutgers) Laura Palamara (Rutgers)
Human Dimensions Steven Gray (U Hawaii) Fisheries Management Jason Didden (MAFMC)
Using ocean observing systems and local ecological knowledge to nowcast butterfish bycatch events in the Mid-Atlantic Bight longfin squid fishery
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“Velocities” of marine ecosystem processes match the fluid
& faster than in terrestrial ecosystems
Length-time scales of turbulent structures in the atmosphere & ocean & ecosystem processes
Terrestrial ecosystem processes 1000 – 10,000 xs “slower”
than the atmosphere
Landscape Seascape
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Cape Cod
Cape Ha)eras
NJ
MA CT
VA
DE
NY
NC
RI
MD
PA
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGIONAL ASSOCIATION COASTAL OCEAN OBSERVING SYSTEM
1000 km Cape to Cape
Mid-‐AtlanCc Regional AssociaCon Coastal Ocean Observing System: From ObservaCons to Forecasts
MANY MANY MANY PEOPLE
3
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Satellites HF radar Gliders
Buoys Data:
Ensemble of Assimilation Models
ROMS HOPS
Regional Ocean Observing System
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NOAA US Fishery Data Spatial grain = 11km
Ocean observations
+ Regional
Seabed data
Regional Habitat
Projection (Hypothesis)
Statistical “niche” models
(e.g. GAM, GLM, MAXENT)
Approach: statistical species distribution models
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Divergence index
Downwelling Upwelling
Downwelling
Upwelling
Frontal index
Close Distance: Far Strong Strength: Weak
HF radar data
Satellite data
Response models
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Sometimes a management problem finds you Butterfish by-catch mortality cap in the longfin inshore squid fishery
Physical and Biological Oceanographers Josh Kohut (Rutgers) Matt Oliver (U. Delaware)
Industry/Outreach Greg DiDomenico (Garden State Seafood) Eleanor A. Bochenek (Rutgers) Chris Roebuck Dan & Lars Axelsson Lunds Fisheries Seafreeze ltd John Hoey (NOAA/NMFS/NEFSC)
Fishery Scientists/Ecologists John Manderson (NOAA/NMFS/NEFSC) Olaf Jensen (Rutgers) Laura Palamara (Rutgers)
Fisheries Management Jason Didden (MAFMC)
Human Dimensions Steven Gray (U Hawaii)
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Bottom complexity
Bottom depth
Scientists & Fishermen
+
Lunar Phase
Sediment grain size
Fishermen
Chlorophyll
Bottom Temperature
Solar elevation
Day length
Mixed layer depth
Surface fronts
Scientists
Index of “upwelling”
Enlist industry experts in model refinement Ask the fisherman about the fish
Hypothesis: Combining fishermen & scientists’ knowledge within an operational Ocean Observing System should: (1) Increase chance of capturing space- time
scales of animal behaviors & ecological processes
(2) Should enable adaptive decision making at
scales matching ecosystem
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F/V Karen Elizabeth
Model “now cast” based on IOOS observations
Catch data &
analysis
Test of prototype operational habitat model (v. 2.0)
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• Spatial resolution of statistical habitat model ~ 40 km – Nyquist frequency: 2 x interstation distance
• Animals & fisherman respond to fine scale habitat variation nested within meso-scale variation: – Dynamic gradients in temperature, prey, predation
• Animals may occupy habitats under sampled in assessment surveys – Diel time scales
• vertical migration – Seasonal time scales
• Shallow near-shore in summer-fall • Continental slope in late fall, winter-early spring
What we learned Lower limits to scale & extent of data & models
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Possible trend in survey strata within preferred bottom habitat (1981 - 2011)
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Enlist assessment experts in model application Ask the assessment scientists how best to apply the models
to butterfish stock assessment
• Physical oceanographers • Fisheries oceanographers • Habitat ecologists • Assessment Scientists • Managers • Fishing industry
• Reviewed the stock assessment process
• Reviewed the habitat model development
• Prioritized steps for habitat model
input into the butterfish stock assessment scheduled in 2013
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Unimodal Boltzmann-Arrhenius Function
Inter-annual variability of survey strata within preferred bottom habitat
Percent stations within habitat Fall Survey
Mechanistic Habitat Model 3.0 Metabolic basis to thermal habitat
+ =
NOAA.NMFS/NEFSC Trawl Survey CTD
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Unimodal Boltzmann-Arrhenius function Metabolic basis to thermal habitat
+
Mechanistic Habitat Model 3.0
Longitude
La@tud
e
Depth (m)
Bottom temperatures from ROMS model hindcasts
Enrique Curchitser
1958-‐2007 Daily Temperature ~7 km Resolu@on
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Index of thermal habitat quality
1989-1992
2002-2004
Mechanistic Habitat Model 3.0 Daily: 1958-2007
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Fall Survey (~ September -‐ November)
Can we improve stock assessments by using dynamic habitat models and fishery-dependent surveys as a supplement to current fishery-independent surveys?
1. Recalibration of indices of population trend based upon the amount of habitat actually sampled in fisheries independent surveys
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Spring Survey (~ February -‐ April)
2. Guide industry based population surveys of dynamic habitat intended to supplement fishery-independent surveys.
1. Recalibration of indices of population trend based upon the amount of habitat actually sampled in fisheries independent surveys
Can we improve stock assessments by using dynamic habitat models and fishery-dependent surveys as a supplement to current fishery-independent surveys?
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Summary
• Ocean observatories capture the dynamics of marine habitats • Mechanistic models linked to physical models co-developed
with scientists, managers, and the industry may support fisheries assessment and management through:
1) the recalibration of existing surveys given CPUE within
modeled habitat and the extent of that habitat.
2) guided supplemental surveys with the industry stratified on the modeled habitat
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Ship
Bottom temperature
Solar elevation
Bottom Complexity
Upwelling
Fronts
Sediment grain size
Number of variables in model
Med
ian
R P
redi
ctio
ns v
s Obs
erva
tions
(95%
CL)
Butterfish habitat model 3.0 (resolution~40 km 22 nm)
Backward stepwise CV (N iterations=999)