using impact evaluations to provide the highest … grid...4. census or other data gathering of...
TRANSCRIPT
Steve Fenrick
Power System Engineering, Inc. Web Site: www.powersystem.org
November 29, 2011
Power System Engineering, Inc.
Using Impact Evaluations to Provide the Highest Program Value
Developing Optimal DSM Deployment Strategies
© 2011 Power System Engineering, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential
Power System Engineering, Inc.
PSE’s DSM Experience • Study and Deployment Team Leader on $60 Million
DOE Smart Grid Demonstration grant involving 23 utilities across the country
• Cost/benefit, demand impact evaluations, M&V, and deployment strategy research for numerous utility DSM programs around the country – Including Opower M&V evaluations, direct load
control, dynamic pricing, and other energy efficiency programs
• Leading upcoming EUCI conference in St. Louis at the end of January “Demand Response: The Economic and Technology Considerations from Pilot to Deployment”.
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© 2011 Power System Engineering, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential
Power System Engineering, Inc.
Presentation Agenda • Advantage of Regression Analysis • Why Looking at Consumer Characteristics is
Important When Evaluating DSM Programs • Value Proposition in Customizing Deployment
Strategy for Consumer Characteristics • Key Elements and Steps for Optimal Deployments
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© 2011 Power System Engineering, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential
Power System Engineering, Inc.
Regression Methods in Demand Impact Evaluations • Compare hourly expected demand to actual demand • Expected demand is a function of climate changes,
event, participant characteristics, etc…
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Usa
ge
Time of Day
Regression Method
Baseline Realized
Peak Period
Estimated demand reduction
© 2011 Power System Engineering, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential
Power System Engineering, Inc.
Why Are Key Drivers Important?
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• First half of participants don’t respond… most benefits produced by 10% of the people
© 2011 Power System Engineering, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential
Power System Engineering, Inc.
Assume a System of Three Consumers
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• Jane has the motivation to change behavior, Joe has the ability to change behavior, Jill has neither
0
Leve
l of a
ware
ness
abou
t usin
g les
s ene
rgy
high
highWillingness to pay more to use less energy
Jane
Jill
Joe
© 2011 Power System Engineering, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential
Power System Engineering, Inc.
Why Are Key Drivers Important?
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Jill is likely here Jane is likely here
Joe is likely here
© 2011 Power System Engineering, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential
Power System Engineering, Inc.
Potential Value Proposition
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($20.00)
($10.00)
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
Joe Jill Jane
Expe
cted V
alue
Incremental Marketing Cost
Reallocate marketing resources from Jill to Joe
© 2011 Power System Engineering, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential
Power System Engineering, Inc.
Value of DSM Program
Consumer Type
Expected Value (no customized strategy)
Expected Value (customized strategy)
“Joe” Consumers
$124,321 $372,963
“Jill” Consumers
$(8,999) $(1,800)
“Jane” Consumers
$3,833 $3,833
Total Value $119,155 $374,996
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Customized strategy increases chances of Joe participating and decreases chances of Jane leading to less waste and higher benefits
Assume a 10,000 customer system comprised of: • 1/3 “Joe’s” •1/3 “Jill’s” •1/3 “Jane’s”
© 2011 Power System Engineering, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential
Power System Engineering, Inc.
PSE Suggested Key Elements
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© 2011 Power System Engineering, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential
Power System Engineering, Inc.
Suggested Steps for DSM 1. Pilot program with multiple marketing strategies 2. Survey participants 3. Demand/energy impact analysis of pilot 4. Census or other data gathering of system 5. Segmentation and optimized roll-out strategy
– Target low-hanging fruit and maximize program ROI – Manage customer perceptions, expectations, and
word-of-mouth
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© 2011 Power System Engineering, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential
Power System Engineering, Inc.
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Questions?
Steve Fenrick Direct: 608-268-3549 Email: [email protected] Website: www. powersystem.org
Thank You!