using human security concept for analysing impacts of natural disasters

USING HUMAN SECURITY CONCEPT FOR ANALYSING

IMPACTS OF NATURAL DISASTERS

Mg.sc.pol. RIHARDS BAMBALSPhD student | Department of Political Science |

University of Latvia

International Conference “World in Change: from Consumption to Sustainability, from

Competition to Collaboration, from Hierarchy to Networks, from being Good to Doing Good”

Riga, 19 May 2014

Contact me: [email protected]


What is a DISASTER? “An event concentrated in time and

space, in which a society or one of its subdivisions undergoes physical harm and social disruption, such that some essential functions of the society or subdivision are impaired” (Fritz, 1961: 655);

“Events that kill at least 10 or affect at least 100 people” (UNDP, 1994: 29);


What is a DISASTER? (II) “(1) disasters are inherently social phenomena,

and (2) the source of disasters is rooted in the social structure or social system” (Quarantelli, 2005:339);

“If there are no negative social consequences, there is no disaster” (Quarantelli, 2005:347);

“(Disaster) risk faced by people must be seen as a cross-cutting combination of vulnerability and hazard. Disasters are a result of the interaction between both” (Risk=Hazard x Vulnerability) (Wisner, Blaikie, Cannon & Davis, 2004:49)


What is a DISASTER? (III)No one discipline (inter-disciplinary

research in both social & natural sciences)No ultimate definition of disasterNo ‘disaster theory’No ultimate research methodologyCommon approach – social

consequences of disasters more important than physical harm:

1) Social Sciences research people and societies;2) Only social structures can be strengthened to enhance

disaster preparedness, mitigation and recovery


What is HUMAN SECURITY? People-centric, comprehensive and

universal security concept Development studies & Security Studies UNDP Human Development Report 1994:

‘Freedom from want’ & ‘Freedom from fear’ ‘Safety from such chronic threats as hunger, disease

and repression’ & ‘protection from sudden and hurtful disruptions in the patterns of daily life – whether in homes, jobs or in communities’ (UNDP, 1994:23)

7 security dimensions: economic, food, health, environmental, personal, community, political security


Shortcomings of Human Security (HS):

No commonly accepted definitionToo vague as a concept (more efforts on

widening than deepening)No one particular scientific disciplinePoor efforts to operationalize & measure

Human Security (“How much (in)security?”)The comprehensive nature of HS has been

constantly ignored (mostly used ONLY in LDCs)Only few attempts to use for disaster research


‘Perfect marriage’=Disasters+Human security Outcasts (no discipline) → interdisciplinary research Common interests → human, society Unfinished → room for improvements/new scientific

approaches & models Society’s resilience (HS) is hard to test

without external impact (e.g. natural disasters)

Objectives: ▪ Create new analytical tool/approach for disaster research▪ Deepen Human Security concept, prove its holistic nature

and possibilities to apply to any society in the world▪ Longterm: research which (and why) societies are more

resilient to natural disasters than other


Measuring Human Security

Previous attempts:

•UNDP Reports (Human Security Unit, 2009);•Generalized Poverty Index (King & Murray, 2002);•Human Security Audit (Bajpai, 2000);•GECHS (Lonergan, Gustavson & Carter, 2009);•Human Security Report Index;•Human Security Mapping (Owen, 2004).

HOWEVERall suffer from various shortfalls:

•Only objective HS is measured;•Too big reliance

on data availability;•Only some (not

all) of 7 HS dimensions are analysed;•Only LDCs are

usually researched

Objective HS:

Subjective HS:

• Statistics & indexes• Several indicators for each of 7 HS dimensions, compared before & after disaster• Values assigned based on comparisons (0-1)•Social surveys & interviews•Socially constructed sense of security;• Precise, quantifiable and inter-comparable results•Fast & representable

&


Human Security Analytical Tool

1. UNDP Report 1994:definition of HS &7 dimensions of HS threats

2. UNDP Latvia Report 2003: Subjective & Objective HS; ‘securitabilities’;personal security strategies;security constellations3. Comprehensive HS

model (Ozolina, 2012): interaction between state & individual,role of intermediaries, area of HS

Objective HS: Case of Japan after 3/11

Subjective Human Security :Case of Latvia (Ogre, April 2013)

Timeframe of the floods: 15 to 19 April 2013People and households affected (officially): 1 deceased and 23 people evacuated, 39 indemnification applications and 120 households affected/damagedThe scale of damages: ~2 000 000 Lats (3 million Euro)Main providers of security: • State-provided – VUGD, police, emergency medical aid

and National Guard (armed forces)• Non-conventional - local religious community, Red Cross,

local NGOs, private entrepreneurs, enterprises & individuals


Subjective Human Security :Case of Latvia (Ogre, April 2013)

Population size: 28 151 (Ogre town + Ogresgals = affected regions)Initial target: 1% of the population (281). Samples (~50 each) from 6

different districts: 3 (50%) from directly affected (close proximity to the river); 3 (50%) from indirectly affected

Surveying time: 4 to 19 May, 2013 (2-4 weeks after the floods)Results: N=270 (0.96% of population; 38.52% men and 61.11%

woman), Margin of error = 5.9% (with 95% level of confidence)Questionnaire with 8 questions (all close ended multiple

choice): Self evaluation of HS changes (each of 7 dimensions) after floods; Evaluation of the assistance provided, Trust to different security providers, Intensity of HS threat perception, Demographics, proximity to the river, filtering question.


Results: Changes in 7 HS dimensions


Results: Changes in 7 HS dimensions (ranked)

Human Security Dimension

Affected by the floods in Ogre (2013)

1. Environmental security

59.26%

2. Food security 30.56%3. Personal security 29.63%4. Health security 24.08%5. Economic security 22.41%6. Community security 22.22%7. Political security 5.93%

Trust to security providersSecurity provider Level of trust

1. Family, closest relatives 94.07% 2. Own strength 89.63% 3. Friends, acquaintances 88.89% 4. Service of the state for

rescue and fire-fighting (VUGD)

82.97%

5. Emergency medical aid 79.26% 6. Police of the local

municipality 67.41%

7. National Guard (armed forces)

60.74%

8. The municipality of Ogre region

35.19%

9. Aid from an international organization (EU, NATO, UN, etc.)

29.63%

10. Aid from another country 24.82% 11. Latvian government 21.11%


Human security threat perception intensity

Conclusions & way-forward Human Security has potential to become a new approach for

disaster research. It allows: Identify & measure, which security dimension (and how much) is

affected; Measure changes in public perception of different threats; Measure society’s trust/confidence to state & non-state security

providers. Disasters & Human Security apply to any country → HS analytical

tool is holistic & universal Disasters ≠ homogenous. They can (and do) affect each of 7 HS dimensions HS changes after disaster → quality of ‘securitabilities’ before it

(knowledge and skills for not losing sense of security, or its fast recovery) States investing in HS have more resilient societies

(Japan) People around & networking matter more than state

provided security constellations (good or dangerous?)Contact me: [email protected]


Conclusions & way-forward (II)

Human Security analytical tool could be used in: Academic – improve knowledge on disasters and

Human Security concept; Policy – better disaster preparedness, risk

mitigation and recovery; Insurances - risk evaluation; Finances - foreign investment (risk) analysis Development – medium/long-term state

development strategies (Latvian NAP, 2014-2020) Foreign policy/international relations – smarter

development aid programmes (Japan, Canada, Norway)


Conclusions & way-forward (II)

What I do for my PhD thesis research? “Changes of Human Security after disasters

in Japan, Phillippines, Australia and Poland”; Comparative analysis of Objective HS = done.

Searching options for researching Subjective HS (nation-wide surveying, incl. Japan);

Results will allow to identify, which states are more resilient to disasters, and which factors (and ‘securitabilities’) influence it. Can they be adapted in other states? Formula for sustainable development?

using human security concept for analysing impacts of natural disasters

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