USING GENERIC, TELEMETRY

PROGNOSTIC ALGORITHMS

FOR LAUNCH VEHICLE AND

SATELLITE FAILURE ANALYSIS

Len Losik, Ph.D

History of Equipment Data

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2

1812Schilling

1845

Takobi

Konstantinov and Pouli

1874Olland

1906Seismic Recording

1946Missile Technology

1947Upper Atmosphere Monitoring

1957Digital Telemetry

1930

Radiosonde

Data Collection Monitoring/Diagnostics

1954Atlas Missile

Titan Missile

1955

Thor/Delta Missile

1964

INTELSAT/COMSAT

PANAMSAT

Commercial Space

Prognostics

1958NASA/JPL/DSN

1969AFCSN

Marconi Wireless Communications

1907

Titan Rocket1961

1975Atlas Rocket

Delta Rocket1962

1985

AFCSOC

1986

TDRSS

1978Jet Aircraft

1953

GPS

1978

Strip Chart Recorder1958

USING GENERIC TELEMETRY PROGNOSTIC

ALGORITHMS FOR LAUNCH VEHICLE AND

SATELLITE FAILURE ANALYSIS

What are Prognostic Algorithms?

Pro-active diagnostics

Active reasoning

Proprietary algorithms for illustrating the early

signs of premature aging/failure in normal

appearing data from fully functional equipment

Used in a forensic analysis to identifying the early signs of (premature)

aging/failure in equipment using time series data

Prognostics is a discipline that acknowledges equipment/product failures do not

have the Markov property (instantaneous and random) and are predictable and

preventable and includes:

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Allows measuring reliability invasively rather than

estimating reliability to quantify random behavior

Its invasive and requires integrating/adding/using

embedded measurements in products (telemetry) for

diagnostic, prognostic and prednostic analysis

Allows the production of equipment/products with

near-perfect reliability

Prognostics

DiagnosticsPrednostics

Relationship Between Diagnostics,

Prognostics and Prednostics

USING GENERIC TELEMETRY PROGNOSTIC

ALGORITHMS FOR LAUNCH VEHICLE AND

SATELLITE FAILURE ANALYSIS

Generic Failure Analysis Service is Available from the Evolution in Reliability Engineering Analysis: Reliability engineering analysis confirms FA’s 28 years of

research concluding that piece-parts/assemblies do not fail quickly but fail as a result of long-term, identifiable deterministic behavior

Using data-driven algorithms to identify equipment that will fail in the future, equipment and vehicle producers can increase reliability to over 99%, stopping infant mortality failures on spacecraft, satellites, missiles & launch vehicles Eliminates (reduce the cost) the need for space

launch & first year insurance

100% accurate for equipment that has telemetry

available Will encourage the use of telemetry on all equipment including single

function such as EED’s, pressure switches etc. 4

Detect

Diagnostic Process

USING GENERIC TELEMETRY PROGNOSTIC

ALGORITHMS FOR LAUNCH VEHICLE AND

SATELLITE FAILURE ANALYSIS

Launch Vehicle Failures and Satellite Infant

Mortality Failure Liability

Liability is currently on:

Commercial space vehicle insurance providers who are asking

builders to accept some liability

American tax payers

Why no liability for vehicle builders that produce

catastrophic failures?

As long as they used their “best effort” liability ends at delivery

Using prognostic algorithms, the equipment that is going to

fail and has already failed can be identified during test

Vehicle builders can measure equipment reliability

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USING GENERIC TELEMETRY PROGNOSTIC

ALGORITHMS FOR LAUNCH VEHICLE AND

SATELLITE FAILURE ANALYSIS

Prognostic Algorithms

Are the next logical step in advancing

equipment and vehicle factory testing

which is excellent for identifying

equipment failures that have occurred

Identifies equipment that has failed

and is going to fail in the near future

Used across many industries (Computer, aircraft, nuclear

power, HVAC)

Developed from obtaining an intimacy with equipment’s

operational behavior seldom obtainable for satellites and

launch vehicles

Are used post failure to analyze factory data that

identifies equipment that should have been repaired or

replaced during acceptance testing but were missed

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Prognostic Algorithm

USING GENERIC TELEMETRY PROGNOSTIC

ALGORITHMS FOR LAUNCH VEHICLE AND

SATELLITE FAILURE ANALYSIS

Failure Analysis’ Telemetry Prognostic Technology

Allows the identification of electronic

circuits and mechanical systems future

failures by prognosticians (engineers

trained to illustrate and identify the

early signs of premature aging/failure

Created and used on the Boeing/Air

Force Global Positioning System (GPS)

Block I satellites and Atlas F launch vehicle telemetry

Uses existing telemetry

Over 30 years of use on many satellites,

missiles and launch vehicles at the factory, in-orbit and on launch

pad including: GOES, INTELSAT, GPS, DMSP, ATLAS, TITAN,

TRIDENT, SUPERBIRD

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Prognosis Process

USING GENERIC TELEMETRY PROGNOSTIC

ALGORITHMS FOR LAUNCH VEHICLE AND

SATELLITE FAILURE ANALYSIS

Failure Analysis’ Telemetry Prognostic Algorithms

Provides the capability to identify space equipment circuits

and electro-mechanical systems that failed for up to one year

Post failure analysis includes review of factory production

information including test telemetry to identify the early

signs of premature aging/failure always present during

factory test but missed by factory test personnel who:

Didn’t know what to look for

Didn’t know how to look for it

Didn’t know when to look for it

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USING GENERIC TELEMETRY PROGNOSTIC

ALGORITHMS FOR LAUNCH VEHICLE AND

SATELLITE FAILURE ANALYSIS

Prognostic Technology/Algorithms Incorporates:

Includes a 4-dimension (time/amplitude/

frequency/phase) analysis to illustrate

behavior that indicates a failure is in

process

Identify the start of the early signs of

premature aging of electrical and

mechanical parts

Identify where in the failure process

the equipment was received

Identify the day-of-failure/remaining usable life

After an equipment failure has occurred, prognosticians

identify from past test data, when and where the early signs

of aging/failure began identifying

supplier/person/organization whose is liable for shipping

equipment that is going to fail within one year of use

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4-D Telemetry Analysis

USING GENERIC TELEMETRY PROGNOSTIC

ALGORITHMS FOR LAUNCH VEHICLE AND

SATELLITE FAILURE ANALYSIS

Prognostics Diagnostics

Identifies equipment that has failed and will fail Identifies equipment that has failed or changed

performance

Uses active reasoning Used for passively monitoring information

Illustrates the information used by prognosticians

to predict equipment that will fail

Developed from ground test environment which

is not real-time

Actively monitor data to provide knowledge of

whether a failure has occurred, is occurring or

when a failure is likely to occur

Record data and look at it later, after the fact

response

All events are failure information until ruled out Events are recognized but no action is taken

Prognostician doesn’t just stand by and watch

failures occur, they stop them from occurring

Diagnostician waits for predefined error message

before taking action

Requires high skilled personnel – with in-depth

knowledge of what is being actively monitored

Allows lower skilled personnel - since data is

evaluated post event

Identifies system readiness for successful

deployment

Inadequate for meeting today’s customer

expectations

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Prognostic/Diagnostic Comparison

USING GENERIC TELEMETRY PROGNOSTIC

ALGORITHMS FOR LAUNCH VEHICLE AND

SATELLITE FAILURE ANALYSIS

Active Reasoning Passive Reasoning

Evaluate symptoms continuously Evaluates symptoms after the fact

Uses fault reasoning Spurious symptoms misleads fault localization analysis.

Uses fidelity evaluation “how accurate are we?” Spurious symptoms are regarded as observational noise

Uses action selection “what should we do next?” Depends on monitoring agents to detect and report

abnormality using alarms or symptom events

Takes passively observed symptoms as input and returns

fault hypothesis as output.

After the fact search for root faults based on the observed

symptoms

Searching for the best fault explanation of the observed

symptoms.

Event-driven fault reasoning technique improves the

robustness of fault localization system by analyzing lost,

positive and spurious symptoms.

Assumes each event is a failure until ruled out

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Active/Passive Reasoning Comparison

USING GENERIC TELEMETRY PROGNOSTIC

ALGORITHMS FOR LAUNCH VEHICLE AND

SATELLITE FAILURE ANALYSIS

Prognostic Algorithms and their use

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Tool Box of Prognostic Algorithms

Equipment Factory

Satellite Factory

LV Factory

Launch Pad

Mission Control

Mission

Control(CCSDS)

Data Integration X X X X X XBaseline Analysis X X X X X XChange Analysis X X X X X

Comparison Analysis XData Mining X X X X X

Day of Failure X X X X X XDigital Processing X

Discrimination Analysis X X X X X XMathematical Modeling X X X X X X

Multi-variant Limit Analysis X X X X X XRate Change Analysis X X X X X

Remaining Usable Life X X X X X XStatistical Sampling X X X X X

State Change Analysis X X X X XSuper Impositioning X X X X X

Data Integration X X X X X XSuper Precision X X

Telemetry Authentication X Virtual Telemetry X X X X X X

Data Base Creation X

USING GENERIC TELEMETRY PROGNOSTIC

ALGORITHMS FOR LAUNCH VEHICLE AND

SATELLITE FAILURE ANALYSIS

Results Using Prognostic Algorithms

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Months 12 Months

May be present during factory test

Will be present during factory test

2-D Presentation

USING GENERIC TELEMETRY PROGNOSTIC

ALGORITHMS FOR LAUNCH VEHICLE AND

SATELLITE FAILURE ANALYSIS

EUVE Orbital Satellite Rate Gyro Failure

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Finish

Start

mA

ps

Months

Months

Measurement Sample rate = 1/second

Catastrophic FailureIndication from prognostic algorithms

that unit will fail shortly

USING GENERIC TELEMETRY PROGNOSTIC

ALGORITHMS FOR LAUNCH VEHICLE AND

SATELLITE FAILURE ANALYSIS

Flight History for Prediction Failure and Failure

Analysis on space Equipment Completed

Air Force GPS

NAVSTAR 1

NAVSTAR 2

NAVSTAR 3

NAVSTAR 4

NAVSTAR 5

NAVSTAR 6

NASA EUVE

NASA GOES I

SCC SUPERBIRD B

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Rubidium Atomic Clocks

Batteries

Reaction wheel Assembly

TT&C Equipment

USING GENERIC TELEMETRY PROGNOSTIC

ALGORITHMS FOR LAUNCH VEHICLE AND

SATELLITE FAILURE ANALYSIS

FA’s Failure Analysis Service is:

Independent of vehicle and vehicle manufacturer

Insensitive to amount of data available for analysis

Insensitive to resolution /accuracy of telemetry

Insensitive to noise in telemetry

Available today

Any failure

Any place

Any time

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4-D Telemetry Analysis

3-D Telemetry Analysis

USING GENERIC TELEMETRY PROGNOSTIC

ALGORITHMS FOR LAUNCH VEHICLE AND

SATELLITE FAILURE ANALYSIS

FAILURE ANALYSIS

Creek bridge Business Complex

12 Glen Falls Circle

Salinas, CA 93906

sales@failureanalysisco.com

www.failureanalysisco.com

Ph/Fax: (831) 443-4502

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