using foresight and agility for an uncertain future of
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Using foresight and agility for an uncertain future of work
Marianne JacksonFormer Chief Talent Development OfficereBay, Inc.
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4 Thoughts for tonight
1. Raise your gaze
2. Shift the HR role if you haven’t already
3. Future of Work is NOW
4. Practice Foresight, Insight to Action
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Raise Your Gaze…..
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“Almost everything we did ran against the grain of military tradition and general organizational practice. We abandoned many of the precepts that had helped establish our efficacy in the twentieth century, because the twenty-first century is a different game with different rules.”
General McChrystal
Author, Team of Teams
Innovation and adaptation
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What new rules are true for your organization?
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FUTURE OF WORK
PWC SurveyFuture of Work Report
53%
39%
33%
26%
13%
4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
TECHNOLOGY BREAKTHROUGH
RESOURCE SCARCITY & CLIMATE CHANGE
DEMONGRAPHIC SHIFTS
RAPID URBANIZATION
NOT SURE
NONE OF THESE
What will transform the way people work over the next 5-10 years
Series 1
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Will jobs exist in 2050?Sophisticated machines are fast outpacing jobs. What does this mean for the future of work? And if there are no jobs, what we will do with our time?The Guardian
The Future of Work: It’s Already Here… And Not As Scary As You ThinkBY JOSHBERSIN · SEPTEMBER 21, 2016
The future of work is surprisingly human:Technology can and will become more human within organizations that are aware of the pitfalls and opportunitiesCIO Magazine
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Institute for The Future
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1. Look Backward from the Future
2. Move toward a Future that Rewards Clarity but Punishes Certainty
3. Voluntary Fear Engagement
4. Move toward a Future of Gaming for Grit
5. Leading Shape-Shifting Organizations
6. Move toward a Future of Distributed Authority
7. Successful with Being There When You are Not There
8. Move Toward a Future That Is Beyond Being There
9. Create & Sustain Positive Energy
10. Move Toward a Future Where Leaders Are Body Hackers
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Shift the HR role if you haven’t already
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Practice Foresight, Insight, Action
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iftf.org
© 2016 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1855B | www.iftf.org
Welcome to the Future
Foresight Practitioner LabPerfect for HR teams
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“Organizations must sense signals of disruption, understand larger patterns of change, communicate a clear and inspiring vision for navigating the uncertainty, and
build a dynamic capacity for the unexpected. “
» Systematically sense and analyze signals
» Apply IFTF’s Foresight-Insight-Action framework
» Quickly identify and evaluate emerging opportunities and threats
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“
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Be very clear about where you are going but very flexible about how you will get there.”
Bob Johansen
IFTF
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Develop a discipline of looking ahead
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“a process which combines three fundamental elements:•prospective (long-term or forward-looking)
approaches, •planning (including policy-making and priority-
setting) approaches, and •participative approaches (engaging
stakeholders and knowledge sources)”
Term: foresight
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Scan for “Signals”
• A small or local innovation with the potential to scale in size, impact, and geographic distribution
•Clusters tell a bigger story about the future.
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Interpolate on the Signal
• Does it suggest a change of scale?
• Does it spark a redefinition of existing boundaries?
• Does it have the potential to spread virally?
• Does it shift worldviews for a significant group of people?
• Does it point to a strong shift in identity?
• Does it challenge traditional authority?
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Explore Consequences
• Extend foresight from specific observations to a chain of events
• List assumptions about causality
• Identify relationships between different chains of change
• Explore a few alternative scenarios
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What will be the right planning horizon for HR?
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HCP meets “Vision Sprinting”- FAST & DEEP
Vision-Improvisation-Imagination-Experimentation
• Identify constraints• Emphasize the speed of the process• Create a safe space to ideate & iterate• Facilitate a highly efficient conversation
LET GO OF PERFECT!
Tim Leberecht, HBR 10/2016
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The Future of Work is NOW
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The Future has arrived; perfect for disruptive solutions
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Rapid & continuous up-skilling
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© 2016 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1855B | www.iftf.org
EBAY’S FORESIGHT, INSIGHT, ACTION IN TALENT DEVELOPMENT
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Best choice
Most relevance
Most powerfulselling platform
eBay’sStrategy
ThisCulture
Courageous
Driven
Inventive
Richly diverse
Be the brand
TalentedPeople
People who lead
People who coach
People who inspire
People who execute
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Needs Needs
INTERDEPENDENT ELEMENTS
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Future Trends held as true
1. Company culture & employee experience is job #1
2. Leadership skills, roles & relationships shift for a democratized and distributed workplace
3. Jobs, assignments, learning, earning and careering ALLdisrupted
Launch Succeed
Grow
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Commitments to eBay’s
employees
1
Deepen culture and employee engagementto improve organizational velocity and success
2
Accelerate individual& team success leveraging leaders as performanceand development coaches
3
Power individualized development so employees are always learning & growing
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Striking the balance between a performance
and a development culture
A perpetual system of coaching for performance and development success
Change something iconic
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Change the relationship to a mutual partnership
Leader’s role is to create the conditions for other’s success
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Leader as C
oach
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A new competitive advantage found in career development
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2017+1990’s1950’s
Management Lead
Career-Self Reliance
Company-Partner Alliances
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eBay’sCAREER DEVELOPMENT SOLUTION
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Millennialshave an expectation tocontinuallylearn by doing
The speed of change will require the rapid developmentof skills
Work will becomeincreasinglyproject-based
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HOLISTIC, SCALABLE CAREER DEVELOPMENT
Grow Your Career//
Explore
Self-exploration and
planning on skills,
interests and
aspirations through
Career Navigator.
Learn
Always-available
personalized,
curated learning on
degreed.com.
Experience
Experienced-based
development via Experience Market, Job Designing and job
transfers.
Connect
Learn about careers
through eBay
Community
Networking.
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EXPLORE
CAREER NAVIGATOR
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Action plans initiated by employee backed by leadership
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LEARN
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Degreed has cataloged over 250,000 online learning courses and 3 million informal learning activities from more than 1200 sources – the
largest learning library on Earth.
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EXPERIENCE
Experience Market
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FIND THE RIGHT PROJECT BY SKILL, AVAILABILITY & INTEREST
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CONNECT
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Summary thoughts
• SHIFT THE CULTURE TO SUPPORT YOUR FUTURE
• REIMAGINE ROLE & SKILLS OF LEADERSHIP
• PERSONALIZE DEVELOPMENT
• SUPPORT A “WHOLE SELF” EMPLOYEE MODEL
• REWARD FLEXPERTISE VS. EXPERTISE
• GROW THE ORG’S ABILITY TO FUNCTION VERY WELL IN A DISTRIBUTED MODEL INSTEAD OF HIERARCHY
• MAKE WELLNESS A PRIORITY & DON’T FORGO FACE TO FACE INTERACTIONS
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Your Thoughts and Questions