using big data to solve economic and social problems · next gen. gap = 8.8 52.1 49.0 gen. 2 gap =...
TRANSCRIPT
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Spring 2019
Using Big Data to Solve Economic and Social Problems
Professor Raj Chetty Head Section Leader: Gregory Bruich, Ph.D.
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$63,200
$38,600
$80,700
$46,900
$39,700
0
20
40
60
80
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Hou
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1000
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Median Household Income by Race and Ethnicity in 2016
WhiteNon-Hispanic
BlackNon-Hispanic
AsianNon-Hispanic
Hispanic American Indian
Source: American Community Survey 2016
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Theories of Racial DisparitiesFamily-Level FactorsParental Income Magnuson & Duncan 2006; Rothstein & Wozny 2012
Parental Human Capital & Wealth Oliver & Shapiro 1995; Orr 2003; Conley 2010
Family Structure and Stability McAdoo 2002; Burchinal et al. 2011
Ability at Birth Rushton & Jensen 2005 vs. Fryer & Levitt 2006
Structural Features of EnvironmentSegregation, Neighborhoods Massey & Denton 1993; Wilson 1987; Sampson and Wilson 1995; Smith 2005
School Quality Card & Krueger 1992; Jencks & Phillips 1998; Dobbie & Fryer 2011
Discrimination in the Labor Market Donohue & Heckman 1992; Heckman 1998; Pager 2003; Bertrand & Mullainathan 2004
Discrimination in Criminal Justice Steffensmeier, Ulmer, Kramer 1998; Eberhardt et al. 2004; Alexander 2010
Social Alienation, Stereotype Threat Steele & Aaronson 1995; Tatum 2004; Glover, Pallais, Pariente 2017
Cultural Factors and Social NormsIdentity and Oppositional Norms Fordham & Ogbu 1986; Noguera 2003; Carter 2005; Austen-Smith & Fryer 2005
Aspirations or Role Models Mickelson 1990; Small, Harding, & Lamont 2010
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Most prior work has studied racial disparities within a single generation
We will take an intergenerational perspective, focusing on dynamics of income across generations
Intergenerational approach sheds light on which disparities will persist in the long run and allows us to isolate the factors that drive persistent gaps
– Methods: dynamics of income and steady states
An Intergenerational Perspective on Racial Disparities
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Intergenerational Mobility in the United StatesMean Child Household Income Rank vs. Parent Household Income Rank
Slope: 0.351 (0.003)0
2040
6080
100
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0 20 40 60 80 100
Parent Household Income Rank($22K) ($43K) ($69K) ($104K) ($1.1M)
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Convergence in Black-White Gap if Intergenerational Mobility is Race-Invariant
Mean BlackParent Rank
Mean WhiteParent Rank
32.7 57.9
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Convergence in Black-White Gap if Intergenerational Mobility is Race-Invariant
Gap = 25.2Mean BlackParent Rank
Mean WhiteParent Rank
32.7 57.9
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Convergence in Black-White Gap if Intergenerational Mobility is Race-Invariant
Gap = 25.2Mean BlackParent Rank
Mean WhiteParent Rank
32.7 57.9
Mean Rank of Black Children44.8
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Convergence in Black-White Gap if Intergenerational Mobility is Race-Invariant
Gap = 25.2Mean BlackParent Rank
Mean WhiteParent Rank
32.7 57.9
Mean Rank of White Children53.6
Mean Rank of Black Children44.8
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Convergence in Black-White Gap if Intergenerational Mobility is Race-Invariant
Current Gen.Gap = 25.2Mean Black
Parent RankMean WhiteParent Rank
32.7 57.9
53.6Pred. Gap in Next Gen. = 8.8
44.8
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Convergence in Black-White Gap if Intergenerational Mobility is Race-Invariant
44.8 53.6
Next Gen.Gap = 8.8
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If intergen mobility did not vary by race, racial disparities would shrink rapidly across generations[Becker and Tomes 1979]
Convergence in Black-White Gap if Intergenerational Mobility is Race-Invariant
44.8 53.6
Next Gen.Gap = 8.8
52.149.0
Gen. 2 Gap = 3.1
020
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Intergenerational Mobility for Whites vs. Blacks
White
Black
Diff. at p=25: 12.6
Diff. at p=75: 15.7
Diff. at p=100: 12.4
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Income Mobility for Black vs. White Children Raised in High-Income Families
Source: Chetty, Hendren, Jones, Porter 2018; New York Times 2018
Black childrenWhite children
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54.4
54.4
Whites'Steady State
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Intergenerational Mobility for Whites vs. Blacks
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35.2 54.4
35.2
54.4
Blacks'Steady State
Whites'Steady State
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Intergenerational Mobility for Whites vs. Blacks
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Diff. at p=25: 12.6
Diff. at p=75: 15.7
Diff. at p=100: 12.4
35.2 54.4
Steady-StateGap = 19.2
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Intergenerational Mobility for Whites vs. Blacks
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35.2 54.4
Steady-StateGap = 19.2
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Intergenerational Mobility for Whites vs. Blacks
Intergenerational gaps racial disparities persist in steady state
Current gap (21 pctiles) close to steady state intergenerational gaps(not transitory factors) drive most of the black-white gap today
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Mean Child Income Rank vs. Parent Income Rank by Race and Ethnicity
WhiteBlackAmerican Indian
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Mean Child Income Rank vs. Parent Income Rank by Race and Ethnicity
WhiteBlackAmerican IndianHispanic
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WhiteBlackAmerican IndianHispanicAsian
Mean Child Income Rank vs. Parent Income Rank by Race and Ethnicity
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020
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WhiteBlackAmerican IndianHispanicAsian
Mean Child Income Rank vs. Parent Income Rank by Race and EthnicityChildren with Mothers born in the U.S.
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Current Mean Ranks vs. Predicted Ranks in Steady State, by Race
Black
HispanicAmerican Indian
White
Asian (US Natives)
45 Degree Line
3040
5060
Empi
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ly O
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Mea
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30 40 50 60Steady State Mean Rank
ParentsChildren (born 1978-83)
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Black Americans are close to their long-run steady-state
Suggests that intergenerational gaps (not transitory factors) drive most of the black-white gap today
Addressing the black-white gap therefore requires understanding sources of intergenerational gaps
Why do black children earn less than white children who grow up in families with comparable incomes?
Intergenerational Persistence of Racial Disparities
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First step in understanding this: examine differences by gender
Focus on individual (own) income for this analysis, excluding spousal income
Gender Differences in Racial Gaps
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Diff. at p=25: 9.7
Diff. at p=75: 12.0
2040
6080
Mea
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0 20 40 60 80 100Parent Household Income Rank
WhiteBlack
Black-White Gap in Child Individual Income Rank vs. Parent Income RankMale Children
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Diff. at p=25: -1.4
Diff. at p=75: -1.0
2040
6080
Mea
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0 20 40 60 80 100Parent Household Income Rank
WhiteBlack
Black-White Gap in Child Individual Income Rank vs. Parent Income RankFemale Children
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5060
7080
9010
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Wor
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(Age
>=
30)
0 20 40 60 80 100Parent Household Income Rank
White MalesBlack Males
Employment Rates vs. Parent Income RankMale Children
Diff. at p=25: 18.9
Diff. at p=75: 11.4
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5060
7080
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0 20 40 60 80 100Parent Household Income Rank
White MalesBlack MalesWhite FemalesBlack Females
Employment Rates vs. Parent Income Rank
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Diff. at p=25: -8.2
Diff. at p=75: -3.2
05
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0 20 40 60 80 100Parent Household Income Rank
WhiteBlack
Incarceration Rates vs. Parent Income RankMale Children
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Incarceration Rates vs. Parent Income RankFemale Children
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Do family-level factors (e.g., parental wealth, education, etc.) explain the black-white intergenerational gap?
– No: Black men who grow up in two-parent families with comparable income, education, and wealth to white men still fare worse
Explaining the Black-White Intergenerational Income GapFamily-Level Factors
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Do family-level factors (e.g., parental wealth, education, etc.) explain the black-white intergenerational gap?
– No: Black men who grow up in two-parent families with comparable income, education, and wealth to white men still fare worse
Suggests that environmental factors beyond the family matter
Study the role of environmental factors by analyzing differences in black-white gaps across neighborhoods
Explaining the Black-White Intergenerational Income GapFamily-Level Factors
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The Geography of Upward Mobility in the United StatesAverage Individual Income Rank for Males with Parents Earning $25,000 (25th percentile)
Note: Green = More Upward Mobility, Red = Less Upward Mobility
55.4 ($33.5k)
46.4 ($26.0k)
41.1 ($21.2k)
Atlanta $20.7k
Washington DC $26.3k
Charlotte $20.1k
San FranciscoBay Area$27.6k
Seattle $26.5k Salt Lake City $29.4k
Cleveland $22.9k
Los Angeles $26.6k
Dubuque$32.0k
Newark $27.8k
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Black Men White Men
Note: Green = More Upward Mobility, Red = Less Upward Mobility; Grey = Insufficient Data
Boston$24k
Boston$31k
Atlanta$18k
Atlanta$26k
Newark$20k
San Francisco
$19k
San Francisco
$31k
Two Americas: The Geography of Upward Mobility by RaceAverage Individual Income Rank for Boys with Parents Earning $25,000 (25th percentile)
45.8($25k)
<36.5($17k)
>56.9($35k)
Newark$32k
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Commuting-zone level variation illuminates broad regional patterns but does not directly test for “neighborhood” effects
Blacks live in different neighborhoods from whites within CZs
Zoom in to examine variation across Census tracts
Neighborhood Environments and the Black-White Gap
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Four key results:
1. Black boys have lower earnings than white boys in 99% of Census tracts in America, controlling for parental income
Variation in the Black-White Earnings Gap Across Tracts
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Four key results:
1. Black boys have lower earnings than white boys in 99% of Census tracts in America, controlling for parental income
2. Both black and white boys have better outcomes in “good” (e.g., low-poverty, higher rent) neighborhoods, but the black-white gap is bigger in such areas
Variation in the Black-White Earnings Gap Across Tracts
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Economy
Schools
Educ.Attainment
Housing
HealthcareAccess
Correlations between Tract-Level Characteristics and Incomes of Black vs. White MenChildren with Parents at 25th Percentile
Share Above Poverty LineMean Household Income
Employment Rate
Mean 3rd Grade Math ScoreMean 8th Grade Math Score
Share HS Students Not Suspended
Share High School Grad.Share College Grad.
Median Rent (2BR)Share Homeowners
Share MarriedShare Two-Parent
Share Adults Insured
0 0.2 0.4 0.6Magnitude of Correlation
Family Structure
White Black
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Intercept: 3.57, Slope: 0.05
66.
57
7.5
88.
5W
hite
Min
us B
lack
Mea
n C
hild
ren
Ind.
Inco
me
Ran
k
50 60 70 80 90 100Share Above Poverty Line in Tract in 2000 (%)
Black – White Gap in Individual Income Ranks vs. Share Above Poverty LineMales
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Four key results:
1. Black boys have lower earnings than white boys in 99% of Census tracts in America, controlling for parental income
2. Both black and white boys have better outcomes in “good” (e.g., low-poverty, higher rent) neighborhoods, but the black-white gap is bigger in such areas
3. Within low-poverty areas, there are two factors associated with better outcomes for black boys and smaller gaps: greater father presence and less racial bias
Variation in the Black-White Earnings Gap Across Tracts
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Diff: 7.2
Diff: 4.0
7880
8284
8688
90Pe
rcen
tage
of C
hild
ren
Wor
king
20 40 60 80Percentage of Black Children with Father Present
WhiteBlack
Black-White Gap in Employment Rates vs. Father PresenceMale Children with Parents at 25th Percentile - Poverty Share Less than 10%
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Diff: 13.0
Diff: 7.7
7580
8590
95Pe
rcen
tage
of C
hild
ren
Wor
king
20 40 60 80Percentage of Black Children with Father Present
Black MaleBlack Female
Male-Female Gap in Employment Rates vs. Father PresenceBlack Children with Parents at 25th Percentile - Poverty Share Less than 10%
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Four key results:
1. Black boys have lower earnings than white boys in 99% of Census tracts in America, controlling for parental income
2. Both black and white boys have better outcomes in “good” (e.g., low-poverty, higher rent) neighborhoods, but the black-white gap is bigger in such areas
3. Within low-poverty areas, there are two factors associated with better outcomes for black boys and smaller gaps: greater father presence and less racial bias
4. Neighborhoods have causal childhood exposure effects on racial gaps: black boys who move to good areas at a younger age do better
Variation in the Black-White Earnings Gap Across Tracts
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Black boys do well in nbhds. with good resources (low poverty rates) and good race-specific factors (e.g., high father presence, less racial bias)
The problem is that there are essentially no such neighborhoods in America…
Summary: Impacts of Neighborhood Environments on Black Men
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66.3 9.8 19.7 34.1 62.54.2
Black White
LowFathers
HighFathers
010
2030
4050
6070
80Sh
are
of C
hild
ren
in N
eigh
borh
ood
Type
High Pov. Low Pov. High Pov. Low Pov.
Father Presence and Poverty Rates by Tract for Blacks vs. Whites
Note: Low-Poverty: Poverty Rate < 10%; High Father Presence: >50% Father Presence Among Children of Own Race
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66.3 9.8 19.7 34.1 62.54.2 1.0 2.4
Black White
LowFathers
HighFathers
LowFathers
HighFathers
010
2030
4050
6070
80Sh
are
of C
hild
ren
in N
eigh
borh
ood
Type
High Pov. Low Pov. High Pov. Low Pov.
Father Presence and Poverty Rates by Tract for Blacks vs. Whites
Note: Low-Poverty: Poverty Rate < 10%; High Father Presence: >50% Father Presence Among Children of Own Race
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1. Mobility into and out of poverty is a central determinant of racial disparities
– Black children have much lower rates of upward mobility and greater downward mobility than white children gaps persist across generations
Conclusions
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1. Mobility into and out of poverty is a central determinant of racial disparities
2. Commonly proposed policies likely to be insufficient to close black-white gap by themselves
– Changes in transfer programs and minimum wages unlikely to have persistent effects, unless they change rates of mobility
– Reducing residential or school segregation can improve the level of outcomes of both black and white children, but may not narrow gaps
Conclusions
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1. Mobility into and out of poverty is a central determinant of racial disparities
2. Commonly proposed policies likely to be insufficient to close black-white gap by themselves
3. Reducing racial gaps requires policies that cut within neighborhoods and improves environments for specific subgroups, such as black men
– Ex: Mentoring programs, efforts to reduce racial bias, achieving racial integration within schools, criminal justice reform [Heller et al. 2015, Devine et al. 2012]
– Further development and evaluation of such efforts would be valuable
Conclusions