using artificial neural networks to predict climate in a ... · using arti cial neural networks to...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Using Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a ... · Using Arti cial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a Greenhouse L. Miranda, B. Lara and U. Schmidt ... every 5 minutes](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa12fabe5921e61ec48b4d6/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Using Artificial Neural Networks to PredictClimate in a Greenhouse
L. Miranda, B. Lara and U. Schmidt
Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin. Biosystems Engineering Division. Berlin,Germany.
AgrosNet-Doktorandentag - Berlin, March 11th. 2015
Luis Miranda - [email protected] ANN for Climate Prediction in Greenhouse
![Page 2: Using Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a ... · Using Arti cial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a Greenhouse L. Miranda, B. Lara and U. Schmidt ... every 5 minutes](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa12fabe5921e61ec48b4d6/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Contents
One-Step Predictions of Temperature and Relative Humidity
Recursive OSP → Long-Term Predictions
Discussion and problems found
Fig. 1. Tomato plants grown in the ZINEG1 semi-closed greenhouse.
1 www.zineg.net
Luis Miranda - [email protected] ANN for Climate Prediction in Greenhouse
![Page 3: Using Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a ... · Using Arti cial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a Greenhouse L. Miranda, B. Lara and U. Schmidt ... every 5 minutes](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa12fabe5921e61ec48b4d6/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
One model was built using data from two greenhouses
Fig. 2. ZINEG Greenhouses. Left: Collector greenhouse. Right: Reference greenhouse.
Luis Miranda - [email protected] ANN for Climate Prediction in Greenhouse
![Page 4: Using Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a ... · Using Arti cial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a Greenhouse L. Miranda, B. Lara and U. Schmidt ... every 5 minutes](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa12fabe5921e61ec48b4d6/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
ANN can learn to predict greenhouse climate
Fig. 3. Climate forcasting model: Inputs.
Dataset: Two Greenhouses, 2010 through 2013, collectedevery 5 minutes and filtered (Savitzky-Golay)
Data registers: 272 578 for training, 48 102 for test, 59 902for validation (71.62%, 12.64%, 15.74%)
ANN: 3-layered feedforward net (rprop). Nodes: [8, 8, 2]
Luis Miranda - [email protected] ANN for Climate Prediction in Greenhouse
![Page 5: Using Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a ... · Using Arti cial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a Greenhouse L. Miranda, B. Lara and U. Schmidt ... every 5 minutes](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa12fabe5921e61ec48b4d6/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
ANN can learn to predict greenhouse climate
Fig. 4. Climate forcasting model: Inputs.
Dataset: Two Greenhouses, 2010 through 2013, collectedevery 5 minutes and filtered (Savitzky-Golay)
Data registers: 272 578 for training, 48 102 for test, 59 902for validation (71.62%, 12.64%, 15.74%)
ANN: 3-layered feedforward net (rprop). Nodes: [8, 8, 2]
Luis Miranda - [email protected] ANN for Climate Prediction in Greenhouse
![Page 6: Using Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a ... · Using Arti cial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a Greenhouse L. Miranda, B. Lara and U. Schmidt ... every 5 minutes](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa12fabe5921e61ec48b4d6/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
ANN can learn to predict greenhouse climate
Fig. 5. Climate forcasting model: Inputs.
Dataset: Two Greenhouses, 2010 through 2013, collectedevery 5 minutes and filtered (Savitzky-Golay)
Data registers: 272 578 for training, 48 102 for test, 59 902for validation (71.62%, 12.64%, 15.74%)
ANN: 3-layered feedforward net (rprop). Nodes: [8, 8, 2]
Luis Miranda - [email protected] ANN for Climate Prediction in Greenhouse
![Page 7: Using Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a ... · Using Arti cial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a Greenhouse L. Miranda, B. Lara and U. Schmidt ... every 5 minutes](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa12fabe5921e61ec48b4d6/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Simulation for a case study: April 17th 2013
Fig. 6. One-Step Prediction of Temperature.
Luis Miranda - [email protected] ANN for Climate Prediction in Greenhouse
![Page 8: Using Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a ... · Using Arti cial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a Greenhouse L. Miranda, B. Lara and U. Schmidt ... every 5 minutes](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa12fabe5921e61ec48b4d6/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Peaks appear when the actuators change their state
Fig. 7. One-Step Prediction of Relative Humidity.
Luis Miranda - [email protected] ANN for Climate Prediction in Greenhouse
![Page 9: Using Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a ... · Using Arti cial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a Greenhouse L. Miranda, B. Lara and U. Schmidt ... every 5 minutes](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa12fabe5921e61ec48b4d6/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Peaks appear when the actuators change their state
Fig. 8. One-Step Prediction of Relative Humidity (detail).
Luis Miranda - [email protected] ANN for Climate Prediction in Greenhouse
![Page 10: Using Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a ... · Using Arti cial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a Greenhouse L. Miranda, B. Lara and U. Schmidt ... every 5 minutes](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa12fabe5921e61ec48b4d6/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
OSP can be used recursively to get Long-Term Predictions
Fig. 9. Recursive architecture. Only the first simulation uses actual measurements.
Luis Miranda - [email protected] ANN for Climate Prediction in Greenhouse
![Page 11: Using Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a ... · Using Arti cial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a Greenhouse L. Miranda, B. Lara and U. Schmidt ... every 5 minutes](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa12fabe5921e61ec48b4d6/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
LTP deviate from the measurements as error accumulates
Fig. 10. Time series of a recursive simulation of Temperature.Start value was reset every 30 minutes.
Luis Miranda - [email protected] ANN for Climate Prediction in Greenhouse
![Page 12: Using Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a ... · Using Arti cial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a Greenhouse L. Miranda, B. Lara and U. Schmidt ... every 5 minutes](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa12fabe5921e61ec48b4d6/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
LTP deviate from the measurements as error accumulates
Fig. 11. Time series of a recursive simulation of Relative Humidity.Start value was reset every 30 minutes.
Luis Miranda - [email protected] ANN for Climate Prediction in Greenhouse
![Page 13: Using Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a ... · Using Arti cial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a Greenhouse L. Miranda, B. Lara and U. Schmidt ... every 5 minutes](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa12fabe5921e61ec48b4d6/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
The error increases but remains symmetrical
Fig. 12. LTP-Error over all the validation dataset. Top: Collector greenhouse. Bottom: Reference greenhouse
Luis Miranda - [email protected] ANN for Climate Prediction in Greenhouse
![Page 14: Using Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a ... · Using Arti cial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a Greenhouse L. Miranda, B. Lara and U. Schmidt ... every 5 minutes](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa12fabe5921e61ec48b4d6/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Discussion
The main problems of this model are:
The sensibility to abrupt changes in the inputs (i.e. actuators)The ANN architecture is very inflexible
Strenghts of this approach:
It copes with complex relations using little informationAllows to mix data from different sources: towardsgeneralisation
LTP can give ”a hint” on how the climate is expected tochange. They will not substitute sensors, but can help to planactions in advance.
Luis Miranda - [email protected] ANN for Climate Prediction in Greenhouse
![Page 15: Using Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a ... · Using Arti cial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a Greenhouse L. Miranda, B. Lara and U. Schmidt ... every 5 minutes](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa12fabe5921e61ec48b4d6/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Using Artificial Neural Networks to PredictClimate in a Greenhouse
L. Miranda, B. Lara and U. Schmidt
Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin. Biosystems Engineering Division. Berlin,Germany.
AgrosNet-Doktorandentag - Berlin, March 11th. 2015
Luis Miranda - [email protected] ANN for Climate Prediction in Greenhouse
![Page 16: Using Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a ... · Using Arti cial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a Greenhouse L. Miranda, B. Lara and U. Schmidt ... every 5 minutes](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa12fabe5921e61ec48b4d6/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Complete set of inputs tested
Luis Miranda - [email protected] ANN for Climate Prediction in Greenhouse
![Page 20: Using Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a ... · Using Arti cial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a Greenhouse L. Miranda, B. Lara and U. Schmidt ... every 5 minutes](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa12fabe5921e61ec48b4d6/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Solar coordinates for Berlin on March 21st.
Luis Miranda - [email protected] ANN for Climate Prediction in Greenhouse
![Page 21: Using Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a ... · Using Arti cial Neural Networks to Predict Climate in a Greenhouse L. Miranda, B. Lara and U. Schmidt ... every 5 minutes](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa12fabe5921e61ec48b4d6/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Solar coordinates for Berlin over 2013
Luis Miranda - [email protected] ANN for Climate Prediction in Greenhouse