Using Analysis to Improve

the Environment for Transit

POWERFUL ANALYTIC TOOLS

Building

Types Development

Types

Scenario

Development Evaluation

1

Envision Tomorrow/ process

Step 1: Scenario development starts by creating a library of

building types that are financially feasible at the local level

Why start with buildings? Easily modeled & lots of existing data

• Density and Design

• Rents and Sales Prices

• Costs and Affordability

• Energy and Water Use

• Fiscal Impacts

Envision Tomorrow/ prototype buildings

…to Create a Range of Buildings

Use the ROI Model…

Envision Tomorrow/ process

Step 2: Define the buildings, streets and amenities that make up

all the “places” in which we live, work and play

Building

Types Development

Types

Scenario

Development Evaluation

2

Envision Tomorrow/ development types A Variety of Buildings, Streets and Amenities Create a “Place”

Town Residential

High Mix Neighborhood

Residential

Suburban

Residential

Envision Tomorrow/ as easy as painting

Detailed tables

Process/ monitor indicators on-the-fly

Quick reference graphs

• Increase Housing and Employment Density

• Maximize Infill Development

• Diversify Land Use Mix

• Make Neighborhoods Complete – all daily needs within walking

distance of XX% of households

• Include:

– higher intersection densities;

– greater sidewalk coverage;

– reduced building setbacks;

– Reduced street widths;

– a greater number of pedestrian crossings; and

– a higher number of street trees.

Land Use Measures that Increase

Transit (Walk, bike)

• Include accessibility factors such as:

– closer distance to employment for households;

– a higher number of jobs within 1 mile of housing;

– shorter distance to retail/services for housing;

– greater proximity to nearest retail employment;

– and shorter distance to transit stops

• Design regional transport so that

– More Employment within 10, 20, and 30 minutes of households;

– More employment within 30 minute transit ride of households

Reduce GHG Emissions through

Land Use

people

performance ped/bike

connectivity

places physical form

11/3/2011 11

Potential (market)

measuring TOD readiness (p’s)

11/3/2011 15

transit orientation score

11/3/2011 16

11/3/2011 17

11/3/2011 19

FEASIBLE PROTOTYPES

Pro-Forma Model

University Avenue and 200 Street – Existing

Provo, Utah

University Avenue and 200 Street – with public

improvements

Provo, Utah

University Avenue and 200 Street – public

improvements and mid-density scenario

Provo, Utah

University Avenue and 200 Street – public

improvements and higher-density scenario

Provo, Utah

University Avenue and 200 Street – public

improvements and higher-density scenario

Provo, Utah

University Avenue and 200 Street – public

improvements and highest-density scenario

Provo, Utah

Driving Question:

Can investing in public

amenities have a transformative

impact on development

feasibility in the region?

How Much Redevelopment Capacity

Does Our Region Really Have?

• Answer is not static – depends on market demand, rents/prices, and desirability of place.

• It’s estimated that about 50% of today’s high density multi-family zoned areas will go under-utilized during the next 20 years.

(2009 UGR and MetroScope analysis)

• Zoning capacity is significantly ahead of the market in some areas (and zoning certainly does not guarantee development).

• Developers unable to build to minimum densities in some areas or achieve maximum allowed in other areas.

45-60 foot condos built in

150 ft zone near Gateway

High Rise $102,879

Midrise (Structured)

$71,638

Type V (Podium) $5,034

Type V (Surface) $39,261

Duplex/Townhome

$34,495

$(120,000)

$(100,000)

$(80,000)

$(60,000)

$(40,000)

$(20,000)

$-

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

High Rise $82,655

Midrise (Structured)

$51,183

Type V (Podium) $15,022

Type V (Surface) $60,816

Duplex/Townhome

$61,616

$(100,000)

$(80,000)

$(60,000)

$(40,000)

$(20,000)

$-

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

Small Shifts in Market

Can Greatly Increase Density

• Financial efficiency in construction isn’t a straight line

– Beyond a certain density, construction costs become increasingly expensive

– Cost increases driven by structured parking and steel vs. surface parking and wood construction materials

• Financial “sweet spots” dictate upper end of product range – vary by market area

• However, even small shifts in rent/prices can significantly change an area’s natural density limit

• Example: 10% difference in rent can tip the balance, more than doubling upper density limit

– Type V Podium Parking: 87 du/acre

– Type V Surface Parking: 31 du/acre

Current Situation: Type V not feasible

NOT Feasible

Feasible

10% Rent Increase: Type V is feasible

5 Basic Buildings Forms

High Rise Mid with

Structured

Type V with

Podium

Type V with

Surface

Duplex or

Townhome

518

du/ac

113

du/ac

87

du/ac

31

du/ac

21

du/ac

12

FAR

5.5

FAR

2

FAR

0.6

FAR

0.6

FAR

$185/sf $166/sf $115/sf $115/sf $115/sf

Density

Construction

Costs

Lake Oswego Study Area and Current Zoning

Study Area

Zoning • Focused around

commercial,

industrial and higher

density residential

core of Lake

Oswego

Lake Oswego: Current Conditions Redevelopable Parcels Under Current

Conditions:

Largely Amenitized

Lake Oswego: Fully Amenitized Redevelopable Parcels:

Highly Amenitized

10% increase in price/rent:

• Twice the Land Area

• Double the Units

Lake Oswego

Lake Oswego Conclusions

• Adding amenities to an already largely

amenitized area, such as Lake Oswego,

still significantly expands redevelopment

opportunities • 61% more land area

• New amenities increase achievable rents

by 10% and enable more costly parcels to

become feasible for redevelopment

• The added area can accommodate higher

value building types such as the Type V

Podium type • Type V Podium is efficiently parked and dense

• Being able to develop this product type

significantly increased the number of units able to

be built

Lake Oswego

10% increase in price/rent:

• 61% more Land Area

• 137% more Units

Lake Oswego 2nd Ave, between A Ave and B

Ave

Existing Conditions

Lake Oswego 2nd Ave, between A Ave and B

Ave

Initial Public Improvements

Lake Oswego 2nd Ave, between A Ave and B

Ave

Public Improvements

and Resulting Private Investment

PORTLAND 20-MINUTE

NEIGHBORHOODS

Process and Findings

Process: prototypes

Used 13 prototypes in the

analysis

11 of the prototypes were the

products of past work with

Portland BPS

We created 2 new, more

financially feasible versions of

mixed-use prototypes that

included surface parking

instead of underground or

tuck-under

Attached Houses - High Density

Attached Houses - Medium Density

Neighborhood Corridor Apartments, Surface Parking

Mixed-Use Slab Condo

Mixed-Use Apartments - Large Household

Mixed-Use Apartments - Large Household, Surface Parking

Mixed-Use Apartments - Small Household

Mixed-Use Apartments - Small Household, Surface Parking

Narrow Lot House

Neighborhood Mixed-Use

Plexes

Single Family, Medium Density

SRO Housing

Neighborhood Mixed-Use, Surface Parking

Field work – model developments

in SW Portland/Multnomah Village

4-story condos and townhomes 4-story apartments, townhomes and creek

restoration

Field work -- model developments in

St. Johns

3-story townhomes (one block off Lombard) 3-story condos (near Willamette River)

St Johns:

Maximum Land Cost by Building Building Name Existing 90% 100%

Attached Houses - High Density ($9.42) $3.78 $16.18

Attached Houses - Medium Density ($7.16) $6.87 $19.97

Neighborhood Corridor Apartments (SURFACE) ($41.93) ($28.17) ($14.83)

Mixed-Use Slab Condo ($1,200.94) ($1,082.58) ($969.82)

Mixed-Use Apartments (Large Household) ($281.58) ($245.11) ($209.90)

Mixed-Use Apartments (Small Household) ($295.78) ($258.01) ($220.84)

Narrow Lot House $5.05 $12.73 $19.94

Neighborhood Mixed-Use ($81.81) ($51.77) ($23.09)

Plexes ($4.72) $8.27 $21.29

Single Family, Medium Density $4.14 $9.97 $15.47

Mixed-Use SRO Housing ($127.65) ($127.65) ($127.65)

MU Apartments - Large Unit, Surface Parking ($54.35) ($36.18) ($18.31)

MU Apartments - Small Unit, Surface Parking ($63.57) ($83.59) ($22.94)

Neighborhood Mixed-Use (SURFACE PARKING ONLY) ($8.93) $15.26 $37.84

St Johns: Existing Conditions

St Johns: Largely Amenitized

St Johns: Highly Amenitized

Downtown St Johns: Existing

Downtown St Johns: 100% Amenitized

St Johns: Land Developed and Housing

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Acres Consumed

Developed Acres

Vacant Acres

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

BLI Existing (80%) 90% Amenitized 100% Amenitized

Housing & Mix

Multifamily

Townhome

Single Family

Mobile Home

Complete Streets Multi-Modal Approach

Canyon Rd., Beaverton

Thompson Blvd., Ventura

Thank You!