usga probability score table 2-23-09 - shoreline...
TRANSCRIPT
USGA Score Probability
Have you ever wondered what the odds are that a player shoots a particular score? This
article contains a table provided by the USGA that answers this question for any golf
course, and a series of tables that answers this question for Nagawaukee Golf Course
from the white tees.
First, let’s look at the USGA probability table. With just a little math, a person can use
this table to calculate the odds of shooting a particular score at any USGA rated golf course.
USGA Probability Table
Player Course Handicap Net
Differential 0-5 6-12 13-21 22-30 Greater than 30
0 5 5 6 5 5
-1 10 10 10 8 7
-2 23 22 21 13 10
-3 57 51 43 23 15
-4 151 121 87 40 22
-5 379 276 174 72 35
-6 790 536 323 130 60
-7 2349 1200 552 229 101
-8 20111 4467 1138 382 185
-9 48219 27877 3577 695 359
-10 125000 84300 37000 1650 874
The values in the table above are the odds of shooting a net differential* EQUAL TO OR BETTER THAN the number in the left column.
*A net differential is the subtraction of a player's Handicap Index from the Handicap
Differential for a particular score. This becomes a negative value when the player scores
much better than the player's Handicap Index.
Example: A player with a Handicap Index of 10.0 shoots a 74 from a set of tees with a USGA Course Rating of 70.4 and a Slope Rating of 123.
(74 – 70.4) = 3.6 x 113 / 123 = 3.3 Handicap Differential
3.3 - 10.0 = - 6.7 Net Differential (round to -7)
From the chart above, the odds are 1200 to 1 of this occurring.
Appling the equation above to Nagawaukee course and slope ratings from the white
tees we have created the tables below.
Nagawaukee Probability Tables from White Tees
Handicap Index
Gross Score 0 1 2 3 4 5
68 23 57 151 379 790 2349
69 10 23 57 151 379 790
70 5 10 23 57 151 379
71 8 17 40 104 265
72 5 10 23 57 151
73 5 10 23 57
74 5 10 23
75 5 10
76 5
Handicap Index
Gross Score 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
68 4467 27877 84300
69 1200 4467 27877 84300
70 536 1200 4467 27877 84300
71 406 868 2834 16172 56089 84300
72 276 536 1200 4467 27877 56089
73 121 276 536 1200 4467 27877 84300
74 51 121 276 536 1200 4467 27877
75 22 51 121 276 536 1200 4467
76 10 22 51 121 276 536 1200
77 5 10 22 51 121 276 536
78 5 10 22 51 121 276
79 5 10 22 51 121
80 5 10 22 51
81 5 10 22
82 5 10
83 7
84 5
Handicap Index
Gross Score 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
74 37000
75 3577 37000
76 1138 3577 37000
77 552 1138 3577 37000
78 323 552 1138 3577 37000
79 174 323 552 1138 3577 37000
80 87 174 323 552 1138 3577 37000
81 43 87 174 323 552 1138 3577 37000
82 21 43 87 174 323 552 1138 3577 37000
83 16 32 65 131 249 438 845 2358 20289
84 10 21 43 87 174 323 552 1138 3577
85 5 10 21 43 87 174 323 552 1138
86 5 10 21 43 87 174 323 552
87 5 10 21 43 87 174 323
88 5 10 21 43 87 174
89 5 10 21 43 87
90 5 10 21 43
91 5 10 21
92 5 10
93 5
Handicap Index
Gross Score 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
83 1650
84 1173
85 695 1650
86 382 695 1650
87 229 382 695 1650
88 130 229 382 695 1650
89 72 130 229 382 695 1650
90 40 72 130 229 382 695 1650
91 23 40 72 130 229 382 695 1650
92 13 23 40 72 130 229 382 695 1650
93 8 13 23 40 72 130 229 382 695
94 5 8 13 23 40 72 130 229 382
95 5 8 13 23 40 72 130 229
96 7 11 18 32 56 101 180
97 5 8 13 23 40 72 130
98 5 8 13 23 40 72
99 5 8 13 23 40
100 5 8 13 23
101 5 8 13
102 5 8
103 5
Handicap Index
Gross Score 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
93 874
94 359 874
95 185 359 874
96 101 185 359 874
97 81 143 272 617
98 60 101 185 359 874
99 35 60 101 185 359 874
100 22 35 60 101 185 359 874
101 15 22 35 60 101 185 359 874
102 10 15 22 35 60 101 185 359 874
103 7 10 15 22 35 60 101 185 359 874
104 5 7 10 15 22 35 60 101 185 359
105 5 7 10 15 22 35 60 101 185
106 5 7 10 15 22 35 60 101
107 5 7 10 15 22 35 60
108 6 9 13 19 29 48
109 5 7 10 15 22 35
110 5 7 10 15 22
111 5 7 10 15
112 5 7 10
113 5 7
114 5