uses of arams tm for risk assessment

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Uses of ARAMSTM for Risk Assessment

Mr. Jeff Gerald Mr. Jeff Gerald and and

Dr. Mark S. DortchDr. Mark S. Dortch

U.S. Army Engineer Research and U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development CenterDevelopment Center

September 11, 2007

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• What is ARAMSWhat is ARAMSTMTM??

– An adaptive risk assessment modeling system An adaptive risk assessment modeling system developed by the Army that provides computer-developed by the Army that provides computer-based data delivery, dynamic modeling, and based data delivery, dynamic modeling, and analysis for analysis for multi-mediamulti-media, , multi-pathwaymulti-pathway, multi-route , multi-route exposure and effects of military relevant exposure and effects of military relevant compounds and other constituents of concern to compounds and other constituents of concern to assess assess humanhuman and and ecologicalecological health impacts/risks. health impacts/risks.

ARAMS is a collection of tools, models, and data for use in health risk assessment

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Multimedia, Multi-pathway Exposure

Media: air, soil, vadose zone, groundwater, surface water, food

Pathways: inhalation, ingestion, and dermal contact of contaminated media

Runoff

Percolation

Aquifer

Stream

Human Exposure and Risk

Eco Exposure and Risk

Vadose Zone

Stream

Contaminated Soil

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What is Overall Purpose?

• Assessment of Assessment of chronicchronic human and human and ecological health risks associated with ecological health risks associated with long-termlong-term exposure to constituent of exposure to constituent of potential concern (including hazardous potential concern (including hazardous and toxic and toxic chemicalschemicals and and radionuclidesradionuclides))

• Originally developed to support cleanup, Originally developed to support cleanup, but has broader application, e.g., aiding but has broader application, e.g., aiding in in managing future risksmanaging future risks

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ARAMS is based on Risk Assessment Paradigm of NSF, NAS, USEPA

HazardHazardDefinitionDefinition

EXPOSUREEXPOSUREASSESSMENTASSESSMENT

EFFECTSEFFECTSASSESSMENTASSESSMENT

RISKRISKCHARACTERIZATIONCHARACTERIZATION

Integrates exposure and effects to assess Integrates exposure and effects to assess human and ecological health human and ecological health

impacts/risksimpacts/risksFor ARAMS this includes fate/transport

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Uses

• To assess present risks of emissions, To assess present risks of emissions, loadings, or in-place contaminationloadings, or in-place contamination

• To determine appropriate contamination To determine appropriate contamination clean-up levels for acceptable riskclean-up levels for acceptable risk

• To provide risk information to aid in To provide risk information to aid in evaluating remediation alternativesevaluating remediation alternatives

• To aid in managing sites for future To aid in managing sites for future potential riskspotential risks

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Unique Features

• Linkages to multimedia fate/transport Linkages to multimedia fate/transport models, thus providing time-varying, models, thus providing time-varying, future concentrations, exposures, future concentrations, exposures, and risksand risks

• Adaptive, object-like framework for Adaptive, object-like framework for assessing a wide array of exposure-assessing a wide array of exposure-risk scenariosrisk scenarios

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Links to fate/transport models help in Evaluating alternatives and future risks

Accepted Cancer Risk

Example for contaminated sediments

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Adaptive, Object-Like Framework

Conceptual Site Model Conceptual Site Model LookLook

Contaminated landfill with direct on-site exposure and off-site exposure via transport in air and groundwater

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Object-Like Framework (FRAMES)

• Visually and seamlessly Visually and seamlessly links disparate objects, links disparate objects, providing flexibility for providing flexibility for describing risk scenariosdescribing risk scenarios

• Can add objects and Can add objects and modules (e.g., models, modules (e.g., models, databases) databases)

FRAMES development supported FRAMES development supported by USACE/ERDC, DOE, EPA, NRCby USACE/ERDC, DOE, EPA, NRC

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Major Components

Visualization Visualization and and

ReportingReporting

Common Visual Common Visual Framework - FRAMESFramework - FRAMES

Human ExposureHuman Exposure

Eco ExposureEco Exposure& Risk& Risk

Monte CarloMonte CarloUncertainty Uncertainty

GIS and GIS and MappingMapping

DatabasesDatabases Fate/TransportFate/Transport

UnderUnder

DevelopmentDevelopment

Human HealthHuman HealthImpactsImpacts

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Can Assess Uncertainty of Risks

Peak Cancer Risk

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.00E-07 3.00E-07 5.00E-07 7.00E-07 9.00E-07 1.10E-06 1.30E-06

Pro

bab

ility

of

Exc

eed

ence

Acceptable Risk

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Uncertainty Analysis

• Can assess uncertainty of inputs to develop Can assess uncertainty of inputs to develop probabilistic outputs, e.g., cumulative probabilistic outputs, e.g., cumulative probability of exceeding various levels of probability of exceeding various levels of cancer incidence; can also produce cancer incidence; can also produce confidence (e.g., 95%) bands along time-confidence (e.g., 95%) bands along time-varying resultsvarying results

• Uses Monte Carlo method with Latin-Uses Monte Carlo method with Latin-Hypercube sampling for efficiency Hypercube sampling for efficiency

• Can treat multiple parameters (inputs) from Can treat multiple parameters (inputs) from multiple modules as uncertain multiple modules as uncertain

• Provides options for parameter distributionsProvides options for parameter distributions

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Key Inputs

• Site-specific conditions for soil, weather, Site-specific conditions for soil, weather, hydrogeology, site characterization, etc.hydrogeology, site characterization, etc.

• Chemical-specific properties, e.g., KChemical-specific properties, e.g., Kowow, Henry’s , Henry’s constant, Mconstant, Mww, degradation rate, BAF, toxicity , degradation rate, BAF, toxicity values (RfD, SF, etc) for human RA, toxicity values (RfD, SF, etc) for human RA, toxicity reference values (TRVs) for eco RA, etc.reference values (TRVs) for eco RA, etc.

• Media concentrations (can be modeled or Media concentrations (can be modeled or entered manually, via spreadsheet template entered manually, via spreadsheet template (for soil), or with a generic data import tool – (for soil), or with a generic data import tool – currently in development)currently in development)

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Key ARAMS Outputs

• Risk tables in RAGS Part D formatRisk tables in RAGS Part D format

• A Conceptual Site Model (CSM) that A Conceptual Site Model (CSM) that serves as the starting point in serves as the starting point in FRAMESFRAMES

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ARAMS Interrelations

FRAMESFRAMES

RAGS part RAGS part D report D report formatformatCSM CSM

tooltool

ARAMSARAMS

Data ImportData Import UtilityUtility

EDMSEDMS

ProUCLProUCL

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A Basic ARAMS Example

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Basic ARAMS Example

• A fictitious site called “XYZ Chemical” incurred a A fictitious site called “XYZ Chemical” incurred a spill from one of the tanks in its tank farmspill from one of the tanks in its tank farm

• The constituent was inorganic Arsenic (CASRN The constituent was inorganic Arsenic (CASRN 7440-38-2) and 1850 grams spilled onto the soil7440-38-2) and 1850 grams spilled onto the soil

• We are concerned about the impact from We are concerned about the impact from incidental soil ingestion to workersincidental soil ingestion to workers

• We’ll create the RAGS planning tables and the We’ll create the RAGS planning tables and the conceptual site model (CSM) for this case…conceptual site model (CSM) for this case…

Note that in most of the examples presented that there are some Note that in most of the examples presented that there are some steps that have been omittedsteps that have been omitted

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Basic ARAMS Example – con’d

• In ARAMS, we create a new project and the In ARAMS, we create a new project and the project planning dialog appearsproject planning dialog appears

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• We add a primary sourceWe add a primary source• We then add an exposure medium to the We then add an exposure medium to the

primary sourceprimary source

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Basic ARAMS Example – con’d• We add a receptor to the exposure We add a receptor to the exposure

medium and are then ready to generate medium and are then ready to generate the RAGS planning tables and the CSM…the RAGS planning tables and the CSM…

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RAGS-D Planning Table 1

*Note: had we included ecological components, then the *Note: had we included ecological components, then the “Ecological Planning Table” would have been filled out“Ecological Planning Table” would have been filled out

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CSM Diagram

• The CSM is on the “CSM Diagram” tab as shown belowThe CSM is on the “CSM Diagram” tab as shown below

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Basic ARAMS Example – con’d• We then export the project description to We then export the project description to

FRAMES and create an initial FRAMES FRAMES and create an initial FRAMES GID fileGID file

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Basic ARAMS Example – con’d• Note that the created FRAMES GID file only Note that the created FRAMES GID file only

contains the constituent database module. contains the constituent database module. Unfortunately, the ARAMS CSM tool does not Unfortunately, the ARAMS CSM tool does not fully generate the FRAMES CSM, but under the fully generate the FRAMES CSM, but under the ARAMS Help menu is a tutorial on how to ARAMS Help menu is a tutorial on how to convert the CSM diagram to objects in FRAMESconvert the CSM diagram to objects in FRAMES

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• Using the ARAMS CSM Diagram, we can Using the ARAMS CSM Diagram, we can construct the FRAMES CSM (see the ARAMS construct the FRAMES CSM (see the ARAMS Help menu for instructions on this)Help menu for instructions on this)

• Based on this information, we therefore will want Based on this information, we therefore will want to place Source, Exposure Pathways, Receptor to place Source, Exposure Pathways, Receptor Intakes, and Health Impacts modules on the Intakes, and Health Impacts modules on the FRAMES workspace and we will add a RAGS FRAMES workspace and we will add a RAGS viewer module to generate a RAGS part D report viewer module to generate a RAGS part D report as wellas well

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Basic ARAMS Example – con’d• The FRAMES CSM now looks like that The FRAMES CSM now looks like that

shown belowshown below

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• We next make the necessary module We next make the necessary module connectionsconnections

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Basic ARAMS Example – con’d• We are now ready to select the models/database that we will We are now ready to select the models/database that we will

use in the analysis (by right-clicking on an object, selecting use in the analysis (by right-clicking on an object, selecting “General Info”, and then selecting from the available “General Info”, and then selecting from the available database/model listings):database/model listings):– Constituent Module - “FRAMES Constituent Database Constituent Module - “FRAMES Constituent Database

Selection”Selection”– Source module - “MEPAS 5.0 Source in Soil Module”Source module - “MEPAS 5.0 Source in Soil Module”– Exposure Pathways - “MEPAS 5.0 Exposure Pathways Exposure Pathways - “MEPAS 5.0 Exposure Pathways

Module”Module”– Receptor Intakes - “MEPAS 5.0 Receptor Intakes Module”Receptor Intakes - “MEPAS 5.0 Receptor Intakes Module”– Health Impacts - “MEPAS 5.0 Health Impacts Module”Health Impacts - “MEPAS 5.0 Health Impacts Module”– RAGS - “RAGS Table Generator”RAGS - “RAGS Table Generator”

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Basic ARAMS Example – con’d(additional data)

Variable DescriptionVariable Description ValueValue UnitsUnits

LengthLength 50 50 mm

WidthWidth 5050 mm

DepthDepth 55 cmcm

Ingestion RfDIngestion RfD 0.00030.0003 mg/kg/daymg/kg/day

Ingestion CSFIngestion CSF 1.51.5 (mg/kg/day)(mg/kg/day)-1-1

Decay/degradationDecay/degradation nonenone n/an/a

Soil ingestion rateSoil ingestion rate 0.050.05 g/dayg/day

Soil leach rate Soil leach rate constantconstant

00 /yr/yr

Worker work Worker work frequencyfrequency

340340 days/yrdays/yr

Exposure durationExposure duration 3030 yryr

Worker average Worker average weightweight

7070 kgkg

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• We then perform user input on all of the We then perform user input on all of the modules and then run all of the modules modules and then run all of the modules (we can also use the FRAMES “Go” (we can also use the FRAMES “Go” button to accomplish this)button to accomplish this)

• We can then view the output…We can then view the output…

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Basic ARAMS Example – con’d• The Health Impacts “Summary Views of Risk, Hazard and The Health Impacts “Summary Views of Risk, Hazard and

Dose” viewer is shown and the cancer risk is 4.08E-06 Dose” viewer is shown and the cancer risk is 4.08E-06 and the HI is 2.1E-02and the HI is 2.1E-02

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Basic ARAMS Example - concluded

• If we run the RAGS viewer, we get the set If we run the RAGS viewer, we get the set of RAGS part D tables shown below using of RAGS part D tables shown below using the viewer’s RME optionthe viewer’s RME option

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Firing Range Example

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Firing Range Example• In this example, a hypothetical firing range of 500 In this example, a hypothetical firing range of 500

m x 500 m has a receiving stream located 3 km m x 500 m has a receiving stream located 3 km down gradient from the rangedown gradient from the range

• The range is to be used for 50 yearsThe range is to be used for 50 years

• We are only concerned about runoff from the siteWe are only concerned about runoff from the site

• We are interested in determining if and when RDX We are interested in determining if and when RDX (CASRN 121-82-4) concentrations in the stream (CASRN 121-82-4) concentrations in the stream exceed the protective public advisory criteria of 2 exceed the protective public advisory criteria of 2 parts-per-billion (ppb)parts-per-billion (ppb)

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Firing Range Example – con’dVariable DescriptionVariable Description ValueValue UnitsUnits

Range lifeRange life 5050 yryr

Average rainfallAverage rainfall 63.563.5 cmcm

Receiving stream annual Receiving stream annual flow rateflow rate

0.50.5 mm33/sec/sec

Munitions usedMunitions used 81 mm Mortar & 155 mm 81 mm Mortar & 155 mm HowitzerHowitzer

n/an/a

MunitionMunition Variable DescriptionVariable Description ValueValue UnitsUnits

81 mm Mortar81 mm Mortar Rounds FiredRounds Fired 30003000 /yr/yr

Low OrderLow Order 22 %%

Yield*Yield* 2525 %%

155 mm Howitzer155 mm Howitzer Rounds FiredRounds Fired 30003000 /yr/yr

Low OrderLow Order 22 %%

Yield*Yield* 2525 %%

* Amount of explosive used up in a low order detonation

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Firing Range Example – con’d

• Modules, databases and models used:Modules, databases and models used:– Constituent module– “FRAMES Constituent Constituent module– “FRAMES Constituent

Database Selector”Database Selector”– Source module – “Munition Residue Source module – “Munition Residue

Characterization and Fate Model” (available Characterization and Fate Model” (available beginning with ARAMS 1.4)beginning with ARAMS 1.4)

– Surface Water module – “MEPAS 5.0 River Surface Water module – “MEPAS 5.0 River Module”Module”

– Exposure Pathways module – “MEPAS 5.0 Exposure Pathways module – “MEPAS 5.0 Exposure Pathways Module”Exposure Pathways Module”

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• We select RDX as the constituent of We select RDX as the constituent of concern and set any properties of RDX concern and set any properties of RDX that may be necessary in the constituent that may be necessary in the constituent database moduledatabase module

• We then supply the model input We then supply the model input information requiredinformation required

• Finally, we run the modules…Finally, we run the modules…

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Firing Range Example – con’d• Our example CSM then looks like that Our example CSM then looks like that

shown belowshown below

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Firing Range Example – con’d• We can then view the surface water module’s We can then view the surface water module’s

water concentration file (WCF) output water concentration file (WCF) output

• From the WCF output we notice that the From the WCF output we notice that the protective public advisory criteria of 2 ppb will protective public advisory criteria of 2 ppb will be exceeded after approximately 40 years of usebe exceeded after approximately 40 years of use

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• What can we do to ensure that we do What can we do to ensure that we do not exceed the advisory criteria for not exceed the advisory criteria for the range usage period?the range usage period?

• One possibility is to alternate the One possibility is to alternate the range use on 10 year cyclesrange use on 10 year cycles

• Let’s test this alternative…Let’s test this alternative…

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Firing Range Example - concluded• We make the model input adjustments and re-run We make the model input adjustments and re-run

the modelsthe models

• From the output of the alternative case, we can From the output of the alternative case, we can see that this does prevent exceeding the see that this does prevent exceeding the advisory criteriaadvisory criteria

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Terrestrial Eco Example

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Terrestrial Eco Example

• This is a steady-state analysis where This is a steady-state analysis where we wish to evaluate the exposure of we wish to evaluate the exposure of a Belted Kingfisher (Ceryle alcyon) a Belted Kingfisher (Ceryle alcyon) and Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes) to DDT and Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes) to DDT (CASRN 50-29-3) contaminated (CASRN 50-29-3) contaminated water, soil, and sediment (where water, soil, and sediment (where appropriate)appropriate)

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Terrestrial Eco Example –con’d• The modules, databases and models used:The modules, databases and models used:

– Constituent module – “FRAMES Constituent Database Constituent module – “FRAMES Constituent Database Selector”Selector”

– Terrestrial Organism Selector module– “ARAMS Terrestrial Organism Selector module– “ARAMS Terrestrial Organism Selector”Terrestrial Organism Selector”

– User Defined module – “SCF – Soil Module”User Defined module – “SCF – Soil Module”– User Defined module – “SCF – Sediment Module”User Defined module – “SCF – Sediment Module”– User Defined module – “WCF – Surface Water Module”User Defined module – “WCF – Surface Water Module”– Terrestrial Benchmarks module – “TTD - TRVs”Terrestrial Benchmarks module – “TTD - TRVs”– Eco Receptor Intake module – “Terrestrial Wildlife Eco Receptor Intake module – “Terrestrial Wildlife

Exposure Model”Exposure Model”– Eco Health Effects module – “Wildlife Ecological Eco Health Effects module – “Wildlife Ecological

Assessment Program”Assessment Program”

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Terrestrial Eco Example – con’d• We select DDT as the constituent of concern We select DDT as the constituent of concern

and set any properties of DDT that may be and set any properties of DDT that may be necessarynecessary

• We select the terrestrial organismsWe select the terrestrial organisms• We select TRVs (or provide user-defined ones) We select TRVs (or provide user-defined ones)

to be used in the analysis (we can use multiple to be used in the analysis (we can use multiple TRVs for a given receptor/constituent)TRVs for a given receptor/constituent)

• Next, we supply the model input information Next, we supply the model input information requiredrequired

• Note: Note: TWEM is the only model that requires the output TWEM is the only model that requires the output from the upstream modules be run prior to opening from the upstream modules be run prior to opening the module for user inputthe module for user input

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Terrestrial Eco Example – con’d• After running all models, our example After running all models, our example

CSM then looks like that shown belowCSM then looks like that shown below

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Terrestrial Eco Example – con’d• We can then view the EHQ output of the We can then view the EHQ output of the

WEAP moduleWEAP module

• A couple of the graphs where the EHQ is A couple of the graphs where the EHQ is > 1 are shown below> 1 are shown below

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Terrestrial Eco Example – concluded

• Some of the EHQs were Some of the EHQs were high, what made them high, what made them high?high?– We can go check the TRVs We can go check the TRVs

that were used (e.g. how that were used (e.g. how conservative were those conservative were those values?)values?)

– We could go check the We could go check the BAFs, Regression, BAFs, Regression, Log(Kow), and life history Log(Kow), and life history parameter values used in parameter values used in TWEMTWEM

– If all are reasonable, then If all are reasonable, then perhaps steps need to be perhaps steps need to be taken to mitigate the taken to mitigate the impactsimpacts

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Example with Uncertainty

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Example with Uncertainty

• This example demonstrates the power This example demonstrates the power and flexibility of the FRAMES S/U moduleand flexibility of the FRAMES S/U module

• A more detailed description is contained A more detailed description is contained in a journal article that has been accepted in a journal article that has been accepted for publication in the for publication in the J. Contam. Soil & J. Contam. Soil & Sed., Sed., entitledentitled “Modeling Fate of RDX at “Modeling Fate of RDX at Demolition Area 2 of the Massachusetts Demolition Area 2 of the Massachusetts Military Reservation” (M.S. Dortch, S. Military Reservation” (M.S. Dortch, S. Fant, and J.A. Gerald)Fant, and J.A. Gerald)

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Application to MMR Demo Area 2 for RDX Residue

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MMR Demo Area 2 Background• Used for demolition training from late 70’s to Used for demolition training from late 70’s to

late 80’slate 80’s• Used mostly C4 (RDX plus binders and Used mostly C4 (RDX plus binders and

plasticizers)plasticizers)• Measured soil and groundwater Measured soil and groundwater

concentrations roughly 25 years laterconcentrations roughly 25 years later• Asked by AEC to model site as proof of Asked by AEC to model site as proof of

conceptconcept• Challenge: to predict soil and groundwater Challenge: to predict soil and groundwater

concentrations not knowing the residue concentrations not knowing the residue loading 25 years priorloading 25 years prior

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Example with Uncertainty – con’d

• The surface/subsurface profile of the site The surface/subsurface profile of the site is shown belowis shown below

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• The FRAMES representation used for the The FRAMES representation used for the site is shown belowsite is shown below

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• The following table shows the variables The following table shows the variables that were treated as uncertain for this that were treated as uncertain for this case and their prescribed distributions…case and their prescribed distributions…

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VariableVariable UnitsUnits DistributionDistribution Lower Lower BoundBound

Mean (baseline)Mean (baseline) Upper BoundUpper Bound Standard Standard DeviationDeviation

Source ZoneSource Zone

LengthLength mm NormalNormal 8080 110110 140140 1010

WidthWidth mm NormalNormal 8080 110110 140140 1010

Mass load rateMass load rate g/yrg/yr Log NormalLog Normal 500500 10001000 50005000 750750

ββ dissol. coef. dissol. coef. mg/mg/

cmcm22/sec/sec

UniformUniform 7E-107E-10 7E-097E-09 7E-087E-08 NANA

KdKd ml/gml/g NormalNormal 0.220.22 0.110.11 0.0550.055 0.0280.028

Infiltration rateInfiltration rate cm/yrcm/yr NormalNormal 6060 76.276.2 8585 2.52.5

Lower vadose zoneLower vadose zone


Sat. Hydraulic Sat. Hydraulic ConductivityConductivity

cm/daycm/day NormalNormal 450450 570570 650650 3333

Half lifeHalf life yearsyears NormalNormal 1010 100100 200200 3232

AquiferAquifer

Darcy velocityDarcy velocity cm/daycm/day NormalNormal 5050 100100 150150 1717


Half lifeHalf life yearsyears NormalNormal 1010 100100 200200 3232

Longitudinal Longitudinal dispersivitydispersivity

cmcm Log NormalLog Normal 2121 210210 21002100 347347

Transverse dispersivityTransverse dispersivity cmcm Log NormalLog Normal 2.12.1 2121 210210 3535

Vertical dispersivityVertical dispersivity cmcm NormalNormal 0.010.01 0.3810.381 1.01.0 0.1650.165

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• In the S/U module we set the number In the S/U module we set the number of realizations to 500 and monitored of realizations to 500 and monitored the output of the source zone soil the output of the source zone soil concentration and the groundwater concentration and the groundwater concentration at a monitoring well concentration at a monitoring well identified as MW262identified as MW262

• Convergence occurred by 400 Convergence occurred by 400 iterationsiterations

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Example with Uncertainty – con’d• The figure below shows the source zone The figure below shows the source zone

soil concentration (computed and soil concentration (computed and observed) with upper and lower 95% observed) with upper and lower 95% confidence intervalconfidence interval

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Example with Uncertainty - concluded

• The figure below shows the groundwater The figure below shows the groundwater concentration (computed and observed) concentration (computed and observed) at monitoring well MW262 with upper and at monitoring well MW262 with upper and lower 95% confidence intervallower 95% confidence interval

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Advanced Example

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• In this example the versatility of ARAMS for In this example the versatility of ARAMS for analyzing multiple fate/transport within a watershed analyzing multiple fate/transport within a watershed is demonstrated is demonstrated – ““Site 1” and “Site 2” are two areas of soil contaminated with PCB. Site 1” and “Site 2” are two areas of soil contaminated with PCB.

Storm water runoff from both sites feed into another downstream Storm water runoff from both sites feed into another downstream site, “Secondary Source”site, “Secondary Source”

– A leachate collection system exists at site #1, which serves as a sinkA leachate collection system exists at site #1, which serves as a sink– Volatilization occurs at site #1Volatilization occurs at site #1– Runoff and wind suspended particles from site #1 deposit onto the Runoff and wind suspended particles from site #1 deposit onto the

“Secondary Source” site“Secondary Source” site– A survey of the area indicated a sediment trap was used in former A survey of the area indicated a sediment trap was used in former

operations at the site and this also has runoff to the “Secondary operations at the site and this also has runoff to the “Secondary Source” siteSource” site

– Runoff from the “Secondary Source” site flows into a stream where, Runoff from the “Secondary Source” site flows into a stream where, at a point downstream, the water is extracted and used for drinking, at a point downstream, the water is extracted and used for drinking, showering, and watering of a vegetable garden by a local residentshowering, and watering of a vegetable garden by a local resident

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Advanced Example – con’d• This scenario is depicted as shown belowThis scenario is depicted as shown below

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Advanced Example – con’d• We use the following modules, databases and models:We use the following modules, databases and models:

– Constituent module – “FRAMES Constituent Database Constituent module – “FRAMES Constituent Database Selection”Selection”

– Source module – “MEPAS 5.0 Source in Soil”Source module – “MEPAS 5.0 Source in Soil”– User Defined module – “WFF – Surface Water Module”User Defined module – “WFF – Surface Water Module”– Air module– “MEPAS 5.0 Air Module”Air module– “MEPAS 5.0 Air Module”– Plus Operators module – “WFF – Surface Water Plus Plus Operators module – “WFF – Surface Water Plus

Operator”Operator”– Overland Flow module – “Copy of MEPAS 5.0 Secondary Overland Flow module – “Copy of MEPAS 5.0 Secondary

Source in Soil”Source in Soil”– Surface Water module – “MEPAS 5.0 Surface Water Surface Water module – “MEPAS 5.0 Surface Water

Module”Module”– Exposure Pathways module – “MEPAS 5.0 Exposure Exposure Pathways module – “MEPAS 5.0 Exposure

Pathways Module”Pathways Module”– Receptor Intakes module – “MEPAS 5.0 Receptor Intakes Receptor Intakes module – “MEPAS 5.0 Receptor Intakes

Module”Module”– Health Impacts module – “MEPAS 5.0 Health Impacts Health Impacts module – “MEPAS 5.0 Health Impacts

Module”Module”

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Advanced Example – con’d

• We select PCB (General We select PCB (General Classification) as the constituent of Classification) as the constituent of concern and set any properties of it concern and set any properties of it that may be necessarythat may be necessary

• We provide the required inputs for We provide the required inputs for the modules (fairly numerous for the modules (fairly numerous for this case)this case)

Note: The WFF Plus Operator requires no input and creates a single WFF Note: The WFF Plus Operator requires no input and creates a single WFF connection to the downstream module for the case where the model used connection to the downstream module for the case where the model used there only accepts a single WFF input connection as indicated in the there only accepts a single WFF input connection as indicated in the model’s input connection description (“General Info”).model’s input connection description (“General Info”).

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Advanced Example – con’d• Example of the “MEPAS 5.0 Source in Example of the “MEPAS 5.0 Source in

Soil” model’s user-interface showing Soil” model’s user-interface showing some of its inputssome of its inputs

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Advanced Example – con’d• Figure showing where the module input connection Figure showing where the module input connection

information can be found (under Module Description of the information can be found (under Module Description of the model, which is available by right-clicking on a module model, which is available by right-clicking on a module and selecting “General Info” from the popup menu)and selecting “General Info” from the popup menu)

Valid Valid ConnectionsConnections

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• In FRAMES, the CSM then looks like that In FRAMES, the CSM then looks like that shown below after running the modelsshown below after running the models

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• The figure below shows the human health The figure below shows the human health impact viewers available to the userimpact viewers available to the user

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• Below is the plot of the “HIF Graphical View” Below is the plot of the “HIF Graphical View” health impacts viewer showing the time varying health impacts viewer showing the time varying carcinogenic risk for all pathways and all routescarcinogenic risk for all pathways and all routes

PCB (General Classification) Health Impacts for All route(s) and All pathway(s)

0.00E+00

1.00E-07

2.00E-07

3.00E-07

4.00E-07

5.00E-07

6.00E-07

7.00E-07

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Start Time in yr

Ris

k (c

arci

no

gen

ic)

Series1

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Advanced Example – con’d• The “Summary Views or Risk, Hazard, and The “Summary Views or Risk, Hazard, and

Dose” viewer is shown belowDose” viewer is shown below

• Note that you can easily determine which Note that you can easily determine which route/pathway contributes the most riskroute/pathway contributes the most risk

User can select User can select time-period heretime-period here

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Summary• ARAMS has multiple uses in risk assessment:ARAMS has multiple uses in risk assessment:

– Serves as a central framework for conducting a RAServes as a central framework for conducting a RA– Provides tools to help perform a RA quicker and more efficiently Provides tools to help perform a RA quicker and more efficiently

(e.g. RAGS planning tables, CSM diagram, RAGS table generator)(e.g. RAGS planning tables, CSM diagram, RAGS table generator)– Provides extensive reporting capabilitiesProvides extensive reporting capabilities– Allows tracking and reporting of referencesAllows tracking and reporting of references– Model/Database “Plug and Play” capability (modular/adaptable)Model/Database “Plug and Play” capability (modular/adaptable)– Allows the user to use known data or perform modeling and Allows the user to use known data or perform modeling and

consequently allows for time-varying risk evaluations, i.e. risk consequently allows for time-varying risk evaluations, i.e. risk managementmanagement

– Performs uncertainty in a RAPerforms uncertainty in a RA

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Status

• ARAMS 1.4 will include the additional ARAMS 1.4 will include the additional models/modules:models/modules:– SEEM (Spatially Explicit Exposure Model)SEEM (Spatially Explicit Exposure Model)

– MRCFM (Munitions Residue Characterization MRCFM (Munitions Residue Characterization and Fate Model)and Fate Model)

– GENII* V2 & GENII V2 NESHAPSGENII* V2 & GENII V2 NESHAPS¥¥ suite of suite of modelsmodels

– Sensitivity added to S/U moduleSensitivity added to S/U module

– A joint frequency data (JFD) utilityA joint frequency data (JFD) utility

• ARAMS 1.4 planned for release this FallARAMS 1.4 planned for release this Fall* Generation II

¥ National Emission Standard for Hazardous Air Pollutants

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Thanks

• To all of the participantsTo all of the participants

• And to the following:And to the following:

– U.S. EPAU.S. EPA

– U.S. Army Engineer Research and U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development CenterDevelopment Center

– Interstate Technology and Regulatory Council Interstate Technology and Regulatory Council (ITRC)(ITRC)

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Upcoming Events

• ITRC ARAMS workshop – fall 2008ITRC ARAMS workshop – fall 2008

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Questions?

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Contact Info

• Mr. Jeff Gerald (601)-634-3590Mr. Jeff Gerald (601)-634-3590

[email protected]@erdc.usace.army.mil

• Dr. Mark S. Dortch (601)-634-3517Dr. Mark S. Dortch (601)-634-3517

[email protected]@erdc.usace.army.mil

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