uses and abuses of market research and opinion polls south bank university 1 november2011

Uses and Abuses of Market Research and

Opinion Polls

South Bank University1 November2011

Sir Robert Worcester, KBE DLFounder, MORI

Chancellor, University of Kent

History of market & opinion research

Role of market & opinion research

Outline of the Presentation

Uses and Abuses of research

Comments / questions

3

History of Opinion Research

• Stories of the Caliph

• Plato, Epictetus

• Middle Ages

• Machiavelli

• Hume, Rousseau, Burke, de Tocqueville, Necker, Wieland

• Paine, Madison, Hamilton & Jay

• MacKinnon, Lippmann

• Gallup & Robinson, Crossley & Roper, Durant, Stoetzel & Morgan, ORC, Neilsen, Gallup, NOP, RSL, MORI,

Ipsos

• Crespi, Page, Shipiro, Zaller, esp. Splichal IJPOR, MRSJ

4

Public Opinion Defined

Public Opinion is “the collective view of a defined population”

A Public Opinion Poll is the collective view [of a representative sample] of a defined population [at a point in time]

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A Word about Research

We measure perceptions, not facts

Two kinds of findings we bring to our clients: reality, and misperceptions

Five things we can find: behaviour, knowledge, and…

three levels of ‘views’:

Opinions

Attitudes

Values

Describing “public opinion”

Public opinion is an aggregation of individual opinions

Public opinion reflects majority beliefs

Public opinion is found in the clash of group interests (some term this ‘activated’ public opinion)

Public opinion is media and elite opinion

Public opinion has power

Public opinion is a fiction

Why is public opinion important in a democracy?

Policy in democratic states should rest on public opinion

Global opinions about institutions/leaders Specific policies and priorities

Respect for public opinion is a safeguard against tyranny

Public opinion must at times be mobilised

Public opinion provides clues about culture

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No lack of critics…

A public opinion poll is no substitute for thought Warren Buffett

How far would Moses have gone if he’d taken a poll in Egypt? Harry S Truman

Public opinion polls are rather like children in a garden, digging things up all the time to see how they’re growing JB Priestley

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…but linked to “real” factors, e.g.

R = 0.51

IMD

Hap

pin

ess

0%

50

100

The more deprived your neighbourhood, the lower the level of happiness

10

R = 0.68

Social Class (NS-Sec 2 - Higher Managerial)

Sat

isfa

ctio

n w

ith

are

a

0%

50

100%

The more upper middle class people in an area, the higher the level of satisfaction

…and linked to “real” factors, e.g.

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“Give us the credit for thinking for

ourselves”

“We are intelligent people, we can make up our own minds, after hearing the

facts. Providing we hear the facts”

“We vote the Government in to

make these decisions for us”

“If the law needs to change then they

should do it

Cognitive polyphasia…

The same person can express apparently contradictory views

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What is public opinion research?

And what is it good for?

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The role of the pollster

Objective: to measure public opinion systematically and objectively, at a point in time

Quantitative: research defines who, where, does, knows, and thinks what

Qualitative research seeks to discover why people think the way they do and to gain understanding of if, and how, their views might change and the means by which these changes might occur

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Quant and Qual approaches

Qualitative

In-depth interviews

Small group discussions

Larger consultation workshops

Quantitative

Telephone

Face-to-face

Online

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... a simple business really!

All you have to do is:

ask the right questions

of the right sample

add up the figures correctly

and report the findings accurately

Survey Research (quant)

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Six Functions:

1. Maintaining the respondent's co-operation and involvement

2. Communicating to the respondent

3. Helping the respondent to work out how to answer

4. Avoiding bias

5. Making the interviewer's task easier

6. Providing a basis for data processing

The art of asking questions

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Q: Are you in favour of direct retaliatory action against Franco's piracy?

Gallup question, 1937

Watch out for biased questions…

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Q How would you vote if there was a General Election tomorrow?

ExpressStraw

Poll

Express Readers

(MORI)

General Public(MORI)

Sample size c. 70,000 203 1,070 % % %Conservative 91 61 46Labour 4 26 43Liberal 2 9 7Other 3 4 4

… and phone(y) polls

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… and misleading spin

WHAT THE MARCH OF DIMES NEWS RELEASE SAID:

Mon Dec 14 (HealthDay News) ‘’A poll of about 1,200 mothers found that the leading cause of worry was birth defects (78 percent), followed by concern that stress in their life might harm their baby’s health (74 percent) and wondering whether their baby would be born too soon (71 percent)…The findings were presented Dec. 9 at a meeting of the March of Dimes National communications Advisory Council…

WHAT THE NEWS RELEASE DID NOT SAY:

“The poll was conducted Nov. 6 to Nov. 13, 2009 using the online software Zoomerang. There were 123 valid responses from the 1,224 women from the March of Dimes Moms e-panel…who were invited by email to answer the 65 questions…the survey was written by Betty Wolder Levin, Ph.D. professor of Public Health, Graduate Center of the City University of New York.”

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… and MORE misleading polls

WHAT THE TIMES HIGHER EDUCATION ARTICLE ALSO SAID: The calculation was based on two sets of responses, 2008 and 2009; in 2009, the score for Queen Mary was based on 141 responses to an on-line survey.

BUT WHAT IT DIDN’T SAY: The 141 self selecting respondents were from a student body of c. 15,000, with a score of 75.2. The statistical reliability of c. 150 perfectly randomly selected students compared with the same number in the prior year would be c. plus or minus 12, 95 times in 100, in other words, 19 times out of 20 times would rank between 1st and 100th..

WHAT TIMES HIGHER EDUCATION ARTICLE SAID: Mon 14 Jan 2010 “More that 11,000 full-time undergraduates gave their views on every aspect of university life, from the quality of teaching to student support, social life and institutional facilities…The results of the poll were used to decide the 2009 Times Higher Education Award for Most Improved Student Experience, which went to Queen Mary, University of London.” Queen Mary went from 82nd in 2008 to 51st in 2009, according to the tables accompanying the article.

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Six Functions:

1. Ensure representation

2. Ensure replicability

3. Eliminate interviewer bias

4. Making the interviewer's task easier

5. Provide a basis for data processing

6. Provide a basis for comparison

The science of sampling

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Who uses public opinion research?

The Media

Opinion Polls

general public

specialist public

Private Companies

Marketing

Public Relations

Employer Management

Political Parties

Gauging attitudes to policies, Party leaders

Pressure Groups

Stimulate/focus debate, exert pressure

Government (Central and Local)

Housing needs, social conditions

Service delivery, charter development

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But the future of public opinion research?

“Thanks to social media platforms…you are not just interviewing people, but also you have people interacting with each other.“

“…for each new source of information, you need to connect the dots …be sure that what you are getting makes sense.”

“as an industry we have moved a lot of data collection activity to online panels.”

“Thanks to social media platforms…you are not just interviewing people, but also you have people interacting with each other.“

“We need to have a better understanding of how we can communicate better what we have learned to our clients.“ “We need to reduce the time

delay between what we do and how our clients can use that information.”

Dedier Truchot, Chairman, Ipsos

“We need to reduce the time delay between what we do and how our clients can use that information.”

“..increase our ability to act consistently on a worldwide basis.”

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“Government researchers realising they can’t any longer afford huge in-home random samples.“

More multi-method data collection.”

“Use of panel surveys

expanding.”

“Poorer, but quicker and cheaper data; less interpretive

reports, more blending of qual and

quant with behavioural data.“

“More use of referendums

God help us.“

Bob Worcester

Founder, MORI

“more willingness to employ research consultants as

interpreters and implementers than heretofore, as internal research departments are

closed.”

“..fewer one-trick ponies in research departments and

agencies.”

Robert Worcester

Founder, MORI

27

And from the market place?


“Surveys need t be interactive, engaging and entertaining.“ MB

…surveys and other forms of direct questioning will continue to be an important source of insight. RB

“business intelligence consultants are likely

to take over portions of the market now owned

by researchers.” KJ

“…will be a shift to passive methods.“ LN

“big step up in realism, e.g. virtual stores/shopping 3D and devices that record what actually happened.“ LN

“Always on, more predictive...” “transformation from ad hoc to periodic to continuous tracking and measurement” KJ

“…consumers increasingly leave rich data trails.” MB

“…greater reliance on behavioural data.“ RB

LN (Linda Neville, Coca-Cola; JH Jeff Hunter, General Mills; Reg Barker, Market Strategies; Kees de Jong, SSI, Mike Brochu, GMI

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Ten Point Guide to Reading the Polls

1. When were the fieldwork dates?

2. Was the sample representative and large enough?

3. The more sampling points the better

4. Make sure of where the sample was taken

5. Is it a panel study, face-to-face or a telephone poll?

6. Are the questions unbiased?

7. Are "Don't knows" re-allocated?

8. Are differences statistically significant?

9. Full question wording, and full answer wording

10. Who paid for the poll?

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10 Questions for Management

1. Who are the publics of importance to you?

2. How do these publics regard you now?

3. What 'facts' are misunderstood?

4. Are you capitalising on your reputation strengths?

5. Are you worrying about the wrong reputation problems?

6. Are there changes necessary in how you conduct your business and talk about yourselves?

6. Are all your communications reinforcing the kind of reputation you seek?

7. Are you using the right means to communicate?

9. Which are the benchmarks and metrics you need to track these?

10. And, over time, how do the things you and others do and say affect your reputation?

Brands, Tracking, Communications: Opinions, Attitudes and Values

Professor Sir Robert WorcesterChancellor, University of Kent

South Bank Unversity1 November 2011

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Outline of the Presentation

Reflections on… The Nature of Public Opinion 40 Years of Measuring Brands…

- and Tracking

- and Communication

32

Public Opinion

33

Defining Public Opinion

‘Public opinion is the collective view a defined population.’

‘A public opinion poll is the collective view [of a representative sample] of a defined population.’

- Robert Worcester, 1981

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Dealing with Public Opinion

Perceptions, not facts (Epictetus)

Five tools to measure public opinion

Behaviour; Knowledge: “Views”

– Opinions

– Attitudes

– Values

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10 Questions for Management

1. Who are the publics of importance to you? (T)

2. How do these publics regard you now? (T)

3. What 'facts' are misunderstood? (B)

4. Are you capitalising on your reputation strengths? (B)

5. Are you worrying about the wrong reputation problems? (B)

6. Are there changes necessary in how you conduct your business and talk about yourselves? (C)

7. Are all your communications reinforcing the kind of reputation you seek? (C)

8. Are you using the right means to communicate? (C)

9. Which are the benchmarks and metrics you need to track these? (T)

10. And, over time, how do the things you and others do and say affect your reputation? (T)

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The four ‘brands’(sometimes five)

B

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The ‘Four Image Categories’

Product Image: the collection of image attributes shared by all brands in a product class,

Brand Image: the unique characteristics that distinguish it from other the brands in the product class,

Brand User Image: that describes the sort of person who uses the brand, and

Corporate Image: the net result of the interaction of all experiences, impressions, beliefs, feelings and knowledge people have about a company

B

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The fifth ‘brand’

The Image of the Country of (perceived) Ownership of the company that produces the brands and services.

-Robert Worcester & Geoffrey Morris, 1973

B

39

Reputations: in Perspective

Attitudes to Major Companies

Industries

Companies

Detailsof ImageProfile

B

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Definition of “Corporate Reputation”

“The net result of the interaction of all experiences, impressions, beliefs, feelings and knowledge people

have about a company”… industry, political party, religion…”

-Robert Worcester, 1969

B

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Definition of “Corporate Identity”

“The visible manifestation

of the corporate image.”

-Robert Worcester, 1969

B

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Details of Corporate Reputation

CorporateReputation

Financial stability/profitability, probity

Governance

Products &services

Treatment ofstaff

Social/environmentalresponsibility

Customersatisfaction

B

43

A stakeholder is…

“Anyone who can bugger up the business”

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Five Steps to Effective Communications

1. Awareness (Here’s who we are)

2. Involvement (Here’s what we can do for you)

3. Knowledge (Here’re the facts)

4. Persuasion (Here’s what we want you to think)

5. Action (Here’s what you should do)

C

45

The Communications Process

• Measures perceptions& behaviour of target audiences, including intermediaries

• Tests messages & means to improve their effectiveness

• Provides performance indicators for, and feeds back into, strategy & objectives: benchmarks &

metrics

Research:

Messages

Means

Intermediaries

e.g. Consumers, MPs, Investors, employees, business decision makers, suppliers, media, analysts, opinion formers

Perceptions

Behaviour

Objectives

Media evaluation: measures the content and tone of media output

Audiences

Strategies

eg. Press releases, publications, letters, email, web sites, events, meetings etc

C

46

125

120

105

104

100

100

Effect of Source of Knowledge on Favourability

Know someone who works there

Used products/ services

Seen name on buildings, vehicles

Heard or read about them in the news

TOTAL

Seen their ads

Average of 40 major companiesFavourable

C

47

R2 = 0.6784

Effectiveness of their Corporate Responsibility

Effectiveness of their Communication

Importance of communication – CR experts

Base: All CR experts (20), July/August 2006

C

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The main responsibility of companies is to perform competitively, even when this means

reducing the number of people they employ

Old-established companiesmake the best products

Company profits are too high in Britain

New brands on the market areusually improvements over

old-established brands

The profits of large companies help to make things better for everyone who

uses their products and services

Q To what extent do you agree or disagree that ...

Attitudes Towards Business - 2007

% Disagree % Agree

British companies do not payenough attention to their treatment

of the environment

32

29

29

49

63

59

46

39

39

27

15

14

Base: British Public (929), August 2007

B

49

Faith in the Benefits of Profits

R2 = 0.788

R2 = 0.6119

20

30

40

50

60

%

“The profits of large companies help to make things better for everyone who uses their products and services”

Base: c. 1,000 Adults throughout Great Britain

49%

27%

Source: MORI; Ipsos MORI

51%

35%Swing = - 17

T

50

Level of companies’ profits

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

'77 '79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07

“Company profits in Britain are too high”

59%

14%

Agree

Disagree

Swing = - 23

Base: c. 1,000 Adults throughout Great Britain Source: MORI; Ipsos MORI

BT

51

Faith in the established brands- 1

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

“Old-established companies make the best products”

39%

29%

Agree

Disagree

48%

32%

Swing = - 3


BT

52

Faith in the established - 2

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

'69 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07

“New brands on the market are usually improvements over the old established brands”

39%

29%

Agree

Disagree

41%

37%

Swing = +7


BT

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The importance of “Honesty”

R2 = 0.8757

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

'85

'87

'89

'91

'93

'95

'97

'99

'01

'03

'05

'07

Customer service (40%)Quality of products (29%)Honesty/ integrity (30%)Linear (Honesty/ integrity (30%))

Q What do you think are the two or three most important things to know about a company in order to judge its reputation ? (Spontaneous)


BT

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Thoughts to leave you with…

Hear yourself through stakeholders’ ears

Promise what you can; deliver what you promise

Hit the issues before they hit you

Exorcise corporate-speak

If you’re doing good, tell those who matter to you

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Thank [email protected]

uses and abuses of market research and opinion polls south bank university 1 november2011

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