Story Sizingusing

Agile Relative Estimation

Alex Kanaan

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Let’s Get to Know You!• Waterfall Experience • Agile Experience

• Beginners • Intermediate • Advanced

• Scrum • Kanban • SAFe

QuestionHow long does it take 2

PM’s to change a lightbulb?

QuestionHow long does it take 2

PM’s to change a lightbulb?

HINT: THINK!!!

QuestionHow long does it take 2

PM’s to change a lightbulb?

Answer: Do you have a plan?

Traditional Project Planning Creating a project plan is simple?

Identify tasks, durations & dependencies Find out who will do the work & estimate how long it

will take them to do it Plug all into MS Project and voila!

So one person assigned to a task that takes 48 hours, will finish it in 6 days, right?

Whoa...Whose Days Look like this?*

Out-of-Time?

So how many hours do you really have left to actually do the work in the plan?

Planning for an 8 hour day?Assuming 8 hrs a day

to allocate to tasks is not realistic!!

What should we do?

Problems with Traditional EstimatesWe spend too much time doing/redoing it But we rarely get it right - Fear of failure Lack of confidence/experience People are either pessimistic or optimistic Timeline may be too far into future Many unknowns, changes, dependencies

Traditional PlanningSo how do we estimate accurately how long

it will take to get things done?

Traditional PlanningSo how do we estimate accurately how long

it will take to get things done?

Answer: You cannot!

Self-Organize & Prove the Following!Fact: Humans stink at Estimating!

So, Do Estimates Work?

Traditional Planning

“It is better to be roughly right... than precisely wrong”

John Maynard Keynes

Solution? Use Relative Estimation

Relative EstimationEducated “finger-in-the-air” guess-timate that

works!! Used in Product Backlog Uses comparing vs deconstructing Allows you to select a predictable volume of

work to be done in a sprint Basis to do capacity based planning

Sizing - Why Relative Estimation Uses a Simple Scale Normalized Story Points Quick Estimates - Sizing a story K.I.S.S. - Keeps it Simple It’s all relative - comparing & evaluating one

story to another

Sizing - Why Relative Estimation Allows PO to make

tradeoffs Allows you to take on

low hanging fruit first (more valuable stories)

Let’s Get Started!Let’s learn how to use relative sizes for comparison

How Much does a Terrier Weigh? (estimate)

No Idea?Because we aren’t comparing it to anything...yet!

So...Which Dog is Heavier?

Where do we fit a Golden Retriever?

Between Chihuahua & German Shepherd

Let’s Up the Challenge!Lets use relative sizes to help us “fit” something new to our scale below

Where do you fit a Terrier on the scale?

More or Less than a German Shephard?

Where on Scale?

More or less than a Retriever?

Where on Scale?

More or less than a Chihuahua?

Where on Scale?+

About the same as a Chihuahua

How Much Does a Terrier Weigh?

HINT: This is what we know • Less than a German Shephard • Less than a retriever • About the same as a Chihuahua • But...we don’t know what a Chihuahua

weighs

Can You Answer NOW?

What If You Had this Table?

Can You Answer NOW?? (estimate)

How much does a Terrier weigh?

Yes…The Terrier Weighs...

Roughly about the same as a Chihuahua, or 4-6 Ibs

So how does this work in Agile?We create buckets of standard story sizes and

‘fit’ new stories in these buckets

Do We Include Testing in Estimates?

What About Deployment?

YES: Include it ALL!ALL efforts in the

process are included in the size estimate - including any spikes

What is this?

1, 2, 3, 5, 8,13

What is this?

Modified Fibonacci Sequence 1, 2, 3, 5, 8,13 20, 40, 100, 200

Size is not based on effort aloneUnlike Waterfall, when we size stories, we do NOT base it on effort alone!

More to Size than Effort alone!Story Point Size is based on at least

Effort Complexity Doubt

Effort

Doubt

Complexity

Same Effort - Different Size

5PT

Effort

D

C

1PT

Both stories have the same effort, why is the estimate so different?

Effort

Doubt

Complexity

Effort

Complexity

Doubt

z

Complex

Doubt

Effort

Different Efforts - Same Size

5PT 5PT5PT

Using T-Shirt Sizing for your buckets

Small 1pt

Medium 2-3pt

Large 5pt

Extra Large 8 Points

TOO BIG - Break into

Smaller Stories

Normalized Story Points• Pick a 1 pointer roughly equal 1 day • Agree with Team this is your one pointer in

terms of effort, complexity and doubt • Compare new stories to it • Remember to use same scale within team

Planning PokerConsent based estimation technique I don’t use it with my teams because I find

developers are much more comfortable with giving a relative number rather than an exact number

Mike Cohn’s Website for a good explanation

Do we use hours in planning?Yes: In sprint planning where your planning horizon is only your 2-3 weeks - sprint length

Remember the Mantra!

Points for Stories, Hours for Tasks!

Points for Stories, Hours for Tasks!

Estimate Using

When? For What?

Stories Points Refinement Velocity

Tasks Hours Sprint Planning

Burndown Chart

Tips on Sizing• Avoid confusion: Sizing vs Estimates • Use Story Points - choose & stick to scale • Break large stories to multiple small stories • Smaller stories have less uncertainty &

easier to estimate more accurately • Only an estimate, don’t spend too much

time • Team sizing efforts get better with time

Relative Sizing Advantages• Sprint planning in minutes not hours! • Less Stress: Team doesn’t worry if

estimates are not spot-on • Meeting sprint commitments starts to

improve each sprint • We now have historical velocity that can be

used towards future planning and accepting new projects

Next Steps…If you liked my presentation, connect with me

from the next page for more ☺

Connect with Me!Click Button For Direct Access

More about Me http://www.alexkanaan.com

Read My Blog http://www.alexkanaan.com/#latestnews

Contact Me http://www.alexkanaan.com/#contact

Follow my Tweets @AlexKanDu

Connect on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/arkanaan