user optimized weather and power forecasts: fostering acceptance through dialog - bridging the gap...
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User optimized weather and power forecasts:
Fostering acceptance through dialog
- Bridging the gap between meteorology and the energy sector -
Daniel Lee, V. Stauch, I. Alberts
Grid management in the age of renewables
Renewable proportion in power mix
Current
Goal from federal energy concept 2010
With expanded energy corridor (coalition contract 2013)
Grid management in the age of renewables
German High-Voltage Transmission System
http://www.solarbusinessfocus.com
TSOs have the priority of ensuring energy safety and stability
Stabile frequency (50 Hz) and voltage (380/220 kV)
Balanced supply and demand
Power can only be transmitted using existing infrastructure
Energiewende – Herausforderung für die Übertragungsnetze
Energiewende – Herausforderung für die Übertragungsnetze
Power grid
Energiewende – Herausforderung für die Übertragungsnetze
Power grid
REA Power market
Power trading and renewable energy act (REA) require long-distance power transfers
Energiewende – Herausforderung für die Übertragungsnetze
Power grid
REA Power market
Power trading and renewable energy act (REA) require long-distance power transfers
Power grid
REA Power market
Power trading and renewable energy act (REA) require long-distance power transfers
Energiewende – Herausforderung für die Übertragungsnetze
Power grid
The grid is becoming a power transport system
Problems:
n-1 safety
Voltage & frequency maintenance
REA Power market
Power trading and renewable energy act (REA) require long-distance power transfers
Energiewende – Herausforderung für die Übertragungsnetze
Spatial distribution of supply and demand
Energiewende – Herausforderung für die Übertragungsnetze
Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Events* 2 15 51 172 387 228 312 290 998 970 1009
Days 2 14 51 105 185 144 156 161 308 344 356
Number of (n-1) critical situations
* Ereignisse, in deren Folge Maßnahmen nach § 13 EnWG und § 11 EEG ergriffen wurden; ohne Spannungsprobleme
Energiewende – Herausforderung für die Übertragungsnetze
Grid management in the age of renewables
Turbulence effects at the windpark Horns Rev, west coast of Denmark, 12. Feb. 2008, 13:00. Photo: Christian Steiness
EWeLiNE: Development of innovative weather and power forecast modelsfor the grid integration of weather dependent energy sources
TSOs: Current forecast usage
Traditional use of meteorological data:
Long-term climate data for siting
TSOs: Current forecast usage
New use of meteorological data:
Day-ahead and intraday forecasts for grid management
Fraunhofer IWES, 2014
TSOs: Current forecast usage
Since early 2000s: Direct use of DWD forecasts for wind power forecasts
Additionally: Inofficial use of secondary weather products
Wetteronline.de
Current forecast shortcomings
Nonetheless, errors can be large enough to endanger grid stability!
Projected productionDay aheadIntraday
3000 MW error:
Power balancing
necessary
6000 MW error:
Trade necessary
Current forecast shortcomings
Most errors in grid projections are from renewable feed-in, which is weather-dependent.
Wind
Front passages (intensity and spatiotemporal positioning)
Bias in stable conditions
Diurnal cycle
Photovoltaic
After passage of cold fronts
Convection
Low stratus clouds
Snow cover
Additional gains can come from using probabilistic forecasts.
Fostering adoption: User dialog
Energy users come from a nonmeteorological background and are used to deterministic forecasts
Tem
pera
ture
“Hard” initial condition
Easy: Single forecast asprojected “truth“
Forecast time
Fostering adoption: User dialog
Energy users come from a nonmeteorological background and are used to deterministic forecasts
Tem
pera
ture
Forecast time
Hard: Confidence communicated asa probability density function
Distribution ofinitial belief
Fostering adoption: User dialog
Before product development begins: Discussions with users, workplace visits to understand their needs
Fostering adoption: User dialog
Before product development begins: Discussions with users, workplace visits to understand their needs
Throughout the development process: Frequent meetings, brainstorming sessions, training with new products, etc.
Fostering adoption: User dialog
Example: Users would like to see probability of windspeed from 2 directions
First try:
250°
N
10 20 30 40
25%
75%
10%
90%
m /s
Fostering adoption: User dialog
Example: Users would like to see probability of windspeed from 2 directions
First try:
250°
N
10 20 30 40
25%
75%
10%
90%
m /s
Too complicated!
Fostering adoption: User dialog
Example: Users would like to see probability of windspeed from 2 directions
Second try:
Just right!10
20
30
-10
-20
-30
1 2 3 6
kn
time
Fostering adoption:
Flexible technical solutions
Weatherproducts
Weatherforecasts
Web server
GeoServer
Firewall
IWES (power forecast)
DWD (weather forecast) TSOs (grid management)
WMS /WFS
Powerproducts
Powerforecasts
EWeLiNE DemonstrationSystem GUI
(JavaFX + WebKit)
Weather web client
(DWD)
Power client(IWES)
Firewall
Firewall
Fostering adoption:
Flexible technical solutions
EWeLiNE weather web client
Fostering adoption:
Flexible technical solutions
Custom plots for user locations
Custom mashups to
match user‘s needs
Fostering adoption:
Flexible technical solutions
Seamless integration in (semi-) automated decision support systems
Thanks for listening!
Team at DWD:
Isabel Alberts
Zied Ben Bouallegue
Stefan Declair
Tobias Heppelmann
Richard Keane
Carmen Köhler
Regina Kohlhepp
Visit us at http://projekt-eweline.de/en
Daniel Lee
Kristina Lundgren
Annika Schomburg
Jonas von Schumann
Vanessa Stauch
Andrea Steiner
Andreas Röpnack
Gernot Vogt
Elsewhere at WWSOC:
UAS-PS304.03 Sunday 14:20 – 14:40 (Kristina Lundgren)
POM Monday 15:00 – 16:30 (Daniel Lee)
POT Tuesday 15:00 – 16:30 (Kristina Lundgren, Jonas von Schumann)
SCI-PS179.02 Tuesday 17:00 – 17:20 (Annika Schomburg)
SCI-PS220.03 Wednesday 14:20 – 14:40 (Jonas von Schumann)