use of phenology models for insect management in southeastern tree fruits jim walgenbach department...
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Use of Phenology Models for Insect Management in
Southeastern Tree Fruits
Jim WalgenbachDepartment of Entomology
NC State UniversityMHCREC, Mills River, NC
Direct Insect Pests of Apples and Peaches in NC
• San Jose Scale• Plum Curculio• Stink Bugs• Oriental Fruit Moth• Tufted Apple Bud Moth• Codling Moth• Comstock Mealybug• Apple Maggot
Attributes of Insect Phenology Models in Tree Fruits
• Temperature-driven
• Models predict biological events important in management– Adult emergence, egg hatch, etc.
• Predominately used to optimize– Insecticide use– Scouting resources
Factors Contributing to Use of Phenology Models by Grower
Community
• Host range and mobility of pest
• Common vs. sporadic pest
• Consequences of over-spraying– Cost, resistance development
• Availability, efficiency and ease of monitoring tools
• Simplicity of outputs
Direct Insect Pests of Apples and Peaches in NC
• San Jose Scale• Plum Curculio• Stink Bugs• Oriental Fruit Moth• Tufted Apple Bud Moth• Codling Moth• Comstock Mealybug• Apple Maggot
Tufted Apple Bud Moth (Playnota idaeusalis)
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
0 30.5 61 91.5 122 152.5 183 213.5
Mo
ths
pe
r tr
ap APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT
2nd Generation
Moths/trap % Egg hatch
0
25
50
75
100
% C
umulative egg hatch
TABM Pheromone Trap Catches and % Cumulative Egg Hatch
APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
Mot
hs/t
rap
0 1000 2000 3000 4000DD
Biofix
Codling Moth (Cydia pomonella)
0
5
10
15
20
0 30.5 61 91.5 122 152.5 183
Mo
ths
pe
r tr
ap
APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Codling Moth Degree-Day Model
• Riedl et al. 1976. Can. Entomol.• Predicts percentage of adult emergence and egg
hatch of first and second generations.• Degree-day accumulations begin at biofix,
defined as first emergence of male moth.• In practice, first sustained capture of male moth
in pheromone trap is biofix.• Insecticide applications are recommended at
initial egg hatch.
Codling Moth Phenology
Biofix
250DD
350DD
0
10
20
30
40
Mo
ths
per
tra
p
0
20
40
60
80
100
Adults Predicted Egg Hatch
APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
1250DD
1350DD
Developmental Rate of Insecticide-Resistant Codling Moth Populations is Slower than
Susceptible Populations
• E. Lue. 2005. Trade-offs between insecticide resistance and development time in codling moth. http://socrates.berkeley.edu/~es196/projects/2005final/Lue.pdf– Development from egg-adult was 10% greater for a Guthion-resistant
resistant compared to a susceptible codling moth population
• Boivin, T., J. Chadoeuf, J.C. Bouvier, D. Beslay, and B. Saupanor. 2005. Modeling the interaction between phenology and insecticide resistance genes in the codling moth, Cydia pomonella. Pest Manag. Sci. 61: 53-67.– Pheromone trapping studies validated a model that predicted delayed
emergence of insecticide resistant codling moth, and segregation of susceptible and resistant individuals increased with the frequency of resistance.
0
10
20
30
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Per
cen
tag
e C
atch
0
10
20
30
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Per
cen
tag
e C
atch
0
10
20
30
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Per
cen
tag
e C
atch
0
10
20
30
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Ca
tch
2007 First Generation Trap Captures vs. Degree-Days Accumulations
MHCRS Orchard H1
Orchard L1 Orchard P1
OP-Susceptible Orchards OP-Resistant Orchards
Predicted vs Actual Percentage Catch of 1st Generation Codling Moth
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
DD from biofix
% A
du
lt C
ap
ture
ModelOrchard L1MHCRS
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
DD from biofix
% A
du
lt C
ap
ture
ModelOrchard H1Orchard P1
Mean deviation (d) from model
Orchard L1 -10.6 (±6.3) MHCRS + 4.8 (±3.3)
Mean deviation (d) from model
Orchard H1 + 27.7 (±5.4) Orchard P1 + 19.2 (±1.9)
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 200 400 600 800 1000
DD from biofix
Mo
ths
pe
r tr
ap
2006 First Generation Codling Moth Pheromone Trap Captures – Orchard H1
May June
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1
Dose (log ppm)
% M
orta
lity
(p
rob
it s
cale
)
Lab Orchard H1
5
10
20
30
40506070
80
90
95
Dose-Response of Codling MothPopulations to Azinphosmethyl
May June
0.41 0.77
Codling Moth Phenology - 2009
Biofix
250DD
350DD
0
10
20
30
40
Mo
ths
per
tra
p
0
20
40
60
80
100
Adults Predicted Egg Hatch
APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Percen
tage eg
g h
atch
1250 DD
Predicted vs. Actual Emergence of Codling Moth Based on DD Accumulations - 2009
0
20
40
60
80
100
% C
um
ula
tive
mo
ths
Predicted Actual
APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
410DD