usda commodity analysis and the guar conundrum
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USDA Commodity Analysis and the Guar Conundrum. Allan Mustard and Santosh Singh December 6, 2013. Why Does Everyone Look to USDA?. Reliable , credible, objective and unbiased Publications and data on-line and updated regularly FREE !. USDA has the most resources:. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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USDA Commodity Analysisand the Guar Conundrum
Allan Mustard and Santosh SinghDecember 6, 2013
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Why Does Everyone Look to USDA? Reliable, credible,
objective and unbiased
Publications and data on-line and updated regularly
FREE!
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USDA has the most resources:
• Global Intelligence Network
• Trained Technical Personnel
• Sophisticated Technology
• Extensive Databases
• Timely Global Communication
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Country/Commodity Balance Sheets
SUPPLY = DEMAND
Beginning Stocks
Production+ + Imports = Exports +Domestic
Use+
Ending Stocks
Private
(On-farm)
(Pipeline)
Government
(Security)
(Public Distribution)
Area
Yield
Commercial
ConcessionalFeed / Residual
FSI
(Food)
(Seed)
(Industrial)
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Input From Multiple Sources
Private Market Reports
Government Reports
TravelReports
OfficialCountry Reports
World WeatherReports
AttachéReports
Agribusiness
Wire Services
Private Commodity
ReportsInternational Organizations
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Output Used Worldwide
Secretary ofAgriculture
The Media
USDAAgencies
Academia
U.S. and Foreign
Agricultural Attachés
State Agencies
Farmers
FarmingCorporations
Consultants
TradeAssociations
AgribusinessCongress
Finance andBrokers
Other Governments
Industry Cooperators
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Guar (Gowar), Cyamopsis tetragonoloba
India: Area Planted to Guar Bean, in thousand hectares, selected states of India
State 2011 Final 2012 EstimateRajasthan 3,094 3,100Punjab n/a 20Gujarat 125 178Haryana 215 341 TOTAL n/a 3,639Sources: Department of Agriculture of Rajasthan, Department of Agriculture of Punjab, Gujarat Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, Department of Agriculture of Haryana, FAS Delhi estimates
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1997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
2.202.302.402.502.602.702.802.903.00
R² = 0.247917075297477
slope 0.01434 t = 1.92intercept -26.02895
India: Wheat Yields, in metric tons per hectare, 1997/98 – 2009/10
std err = 0.10
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India: Guar Bean Area, Yield and Production, 1997-2009, selected statesArea Yield Production
(1,000 hectares) (kg/ha) (1,000 mt)1997-98 2,301.2 418 962.71998-99 1,922.1 254 488.51999-00 2,933.9 128 375.12000-01 3,497.4 188 658.82001-02 2,903.1 375 1,089.92002-03 974.1 208 202.62003-04 2,854.0 530 1,513.42004-05 2,867.4 315 903.32005-06 2,955.5 358 1,059.02006-07 3,343.7 350 1,169.32007-08 3,471.6 515 1,788.52008-09 3,862.5 501 1,935.82009-10 2,989.6 198 593.1
Standard deviation of yield 133.39Source: India Stats (www.indiastats.com)
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1997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
1slope 0.0111 t = 1.14intercept -21.9194
India: Guar Yields, in metric tons per hectare, 1997/98 – 2009/10
R² = 0.1052std err = 0.1318
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High Yield Variation = High Unpredictability
• Unusually wide yield variance
• Large number of critical points
• Relatively unresponsive to inputs
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http://www.fas.usda.gov
http://gain.fas.usda.gov
http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline