USAID Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Manual

17th Asia-Pacific Seminar on Climate Change

Orestes AnastasiaUSAID Regional Development Mission for Asia - Bangkok

http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/environment/climate/index.html

Four Focus Areas:• Adapting to Climate

Variability and Change• Climate Change Science for

Decision Making• Energy and Mitigation

Technology• Land Use and Forestry

Key Countries and Focus Areas

Climate Change Projects in over 40 Countries and Regions

Adapting to Climate Variability and Change

USAID Adaptation Goals:•Educate project planners:

– Provide climate change information for non-experts

• Increase resilience of projects– Identify opportunities for

adaptation• Improve planning processes

– Incorporate adaptation into project planning

•Approach– Adaptation Guidance Manual– Tools

Why Adapt to Climate Change?

Developing country economies rely on climate sensitive sectors

Ethiopia: Weather Affects Income

80% of population derives income from agriculture

Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change

• Vulnerability: f (exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity)• Adaptation = building resilience

– Reducing Exposure• Diversify economy• Disaster planning

– Reducing Sensitivity• Use better adapted crops• Disaster mitigation/planning

– Increasing Adaptive Capacity• Diversifying economy• Building human capacity• Improving information

Philosophy• Improve Adaptive Capacity

Through Economic Development

• Work at Project Level to Improve Resilience Through Design

• Stakeholder Involvement Essential

• Climate Change is a stressor, not a competing sector

Adaptation to Climate Change

Assumptions

• Climate variability already impacts economic sectors • Addressing climate change will be important for the long-term success

of development assistance• Project managers will know more about a project than we will • Project managers are already dealing with uncertainty such as weather

and markets• GCC Team can provide methods and information resources

– SERVIR will help with access to information, data• Stakeholder involvement is critical –

– Local knowledge and memory of climate changes augments official records– Locals can/should help identify adaptation options; – Early involvement builds ownership

• Methods should be simple enough to meet needs in the field, but provide rigorous enough information on which to base decisions.

1. Mali: rice and potato production

2. South Africa: municipal water sources

3. Honduras: coastal zone development

4. Thailand: fisheries, rice production

5. Madagascar: protected areas identification and management

6. Angola: Okavango River Basin Management

7. Coastal Hazards: building resilience to multiple hazards

Adaptation case studies

STEP 1Climate

Screening-Is Project Sensitive?

Step 1: Screening No

Yes

STEP 2Identify Adaptations

STEP 3Conduct Analysis

STEP 4Select Course of

Action – Are Changes Justified?

STEP 5Implementation Plan

STEP 6Evaluation

No

Yes

Steps 2 – 6: Analysis Implementation and Evaluation

Figure I. Steps to Incorporate Climate Variability and Change into Project Planning and Design

No Further Action Needed

No Further Action Needed

STEP 1Climate

Screening-Is Project Sensitive?

Step 1: Screening No

Yes

STEP 2Identify Adaptations

STEP 3Conduct Analysis

STEP 4Select Course of

Action – Are Changes Justified?

STEP 5Implementation Plan

STEP 6Evaluation

No

Yes

Steps 2 – 6: Analysis Implementation and Evaluation

Figure I. Steps to Incorporate Climate Variability and Change into Project Planning and Design

No Further Action Needed

No Further Action Needed

Steps for Adaptation

1. Screen for Sensitivity2. Identify Adaptation

Options3. Analyze Options4. Select Course of

Action5. Implement Plan6. Evaluate

Integrating Climate Information into Planning

Step 1: Assess Climate Sensitivity

Two Simple Rules: 1. If a project is sensitive to

climate variability, it is likely to be sensitive to climate change

2. Long-term climate changes can introduce other risks to projects.

Challenges: • Finding and interpreting

Climate Information• Use Projections• Use Historical Data• SERVIR for Africa

CHECKLIST: SHOULD V&A BE ADDED?USAID

PROJECT/PROGRAM PARAMETERS

V&A CONTENT CONTEXT FOR ADAPTATIONS

LENGTH OF THE PROJECT?

BUDGET OF THE PROJECT?

EXPERIENCE WITH ADAPTATION IN THE COUNTRY/REGION?

ADAPTATION STRATEGIES IDENTIFIED?

MODELS AND TOOLS AVAILABLE ?

SUPPORT FOR ADAPTATION DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION AMONG DECISION-MAKERS AND STAKEHOLDERS?

LEGAL, POLITICAL, INSTITUTIONAL, OR FINANCIAL BARRIERS?

LOCAL RESOURCES TO SUSTAIN PROJECT?

COST TO NOT ADAPTING?

Step 2: Identify Adaptation Options

• Work with Stakeholders and Other Partners– Include a wide range of stakeholders, ensure all interested

groups can attend (timing, location, etc.)– Stakeholders know best what might work– Donors know what they can/will support– Both may know what has worked elsewhere or in the past– Don’t ignore simple, low cost solutions

Conduct Analysis

Criteria for Analyzing Adaptations

Pilot Study

Effe

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Cost

Feas

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Soci

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Feas

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Assi

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Requ

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for

Curre

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Spee

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Cons

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Sta

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La Ceiba, Honduras √ √ √ Zignasso, Mali √ √ √ √ √ Polokwane, South Africa √ √ √ √ √ Songkram River, Thailand √ √ √

• Analyze options for robustness under current and future conditions

• Can use projections or historical data• Compare with performance of “base” project

Select Course of Action

• Share results of analysis• Weigh interests of stakeholders vs. USAID• Seek solutions that accommodate all parties

Implement Adaptation Options

• Ideally, options will be integrated into or replace parts of the “parent project” design

• May need to modify scope of work

• If new skills or responsibilities needed, ensure proper training

• Ensure stakeholders, implementing partners, others understand changes

RANET rural radio station in Teguidan Tessoun, Niger

Evaluate Options

• If possible, discern whether the modified project is performing as planned– May be difficult if projected conditions have not yet occurred

• Provide feedback on this manual– How much uncertainty in climate projections is acceptable to

planners?– How much of the process can partners take on?– How costly?– How time-consuming?

Thank You

Form more information, please contact:John Furlow

USAID Washingtonjfurlow@usaid.gov