u.s. rotorcraft accident data and statistics
DESCRIPTION
U.S. Rotorcraft Accident Data and Statistics. Presented to: 2012 FAA/Industry Safety Forum By: Lee Roskop, Operations Research Analyst Date: Jan 2012. U.S. Registered Rotorcraft Accidents 30 Year History: 1982-2011. U.S. Registered Rotorcraft Accidents Focus on 10 Year History: 2001-2010. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Federal AviationAdministrationU.S. Rotorcraft Accident
Data and Statistics
Presented to: 2012 FAA/Industry Safety Forum
By: Lee Roskop, Operations Research Analyst
Date: Jan 2012
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273
252259
221213
171184
199
222
186 186177
205
157167
149
168
187194
175190
205
170154
170
141149
134127
4231
39 41 4229
1934 29 35 37 36 41
25 29 26 31 33 33 28 2538 32
24 25 2435
1928
18
185
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11Calendar Year
Acc
iden
ts
Accidents Per Year Fatal Accidents Per Year
U.S. Registered Rotorcraft Accidents 30 Year History: 1982-2011
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175190
205
170185
170
134
28 2538 32
24 25 2435
1928
149154
141
0
50
100
150
200
250
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Calendar Year
Acc
iden
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Accidents Per Year Fatal Accidents Per Year
U.S. Registered Rotorcraft Accidents Focus on 10 Year History: 2001-2010
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Progressing from accident totals to accident rates requires flight hours.
The FAA’s General Aviation and Part 135 Activity Survey is the source for U.S. rotorcraft flight hour estimates used calculations used in this presentation.
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8.14
10.139.60
6.716.05
4.475.24
4.384.96
3.94
1.30 1.331.78
1.260.79 0.73 0.74
1.090.63 0.82
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10Calendar Year
Acc
iden
ts
Accidents Rate per 100,000 Hours Fatal Accident Rate Per 100,000 Hours
U.S. Registered Rotorcraft Accidents Estimated Accident Rates: 2001-2010
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8.14
10.139.60
6.716.05
4.475.24
4.384.96
3.94
1.30 1.331.78
1.260.79 0.73 0.74
1.090.63 0.82
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10Calendar Year
Acc
iden
ts
Accidents Rate per 100,000 Hours Fatal Accident Rate Per 100,000 Hours
U.S. Registered Rotorcraft Accidents Estimated Accident Rates: 2001-2010
Start of IHST initiative and goal to
reduce accident rate 80% in 10 years
*IHST’s goal is a rate of 1.8 by 2016.
2006 – 2010: IHST was analysis centered
2011 – 2015: IHST is implementation centered
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What are the usual environmental conditions for rotorcraft accidents?
• Based on NTSB data for U.S. rotorcraft accidents from 2001-2010:
Over 88% occur in daylight conditions
Over 95% occur in VMC
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What industry sectors result in the most rotorcraft accidents?
Helicopter EMS?
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9 9Federal AviationAdministration
What industry sectors result in the most rotorcraft accidents?
Helicopter EMS?
Air Tour?
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What industry sectors result in the most rotorcraft accidents?
Helicopter EMS?
Air Tour?
Offshore?
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11 11Federal AviationAdministration
What industry sectors result in the most rotorcraft accidents?
Helicopter EMS?
Air Tour?
Offshore?
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External Load 1.9%6 Other Categories 1.5% Aerial Observation
3.3%
Business 4.7%
Positioning 4.9%
Other Work 7.4%
EMS 7.8%
Public Use 7.8%
Instruction/Training 21.7%
Personal/Private 20.0%
Not Categorized 9.3%
Aerial Application 8.2%
Flight Test 1.4%
Rotorcraft Accidents by NTSB Classification10 Years from CY01 to CY10 – 1,672 Accidents
Personal/Private 20.0%
External Load 1.9%Aerial Observation 3.3%
Business 4.7%
Positioning 4.9%
Other Work 7.4%
EMS 7.8%
Public Use 7.8%
Aerial Application 8.2%
Instruction/Training 21.7%
Flight Test 1.4%
Not Categorized 9.3%
6 Other Categories 1.5%
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Personal/Private 18.5%
Instructional/Training 17.6%
Aerial Application 10.3%
Emergency Medical Services 7.6%
Commercial 7.5%
Law Enforcement 6.5%
Air Tour / Sightseeing 5.9%
Business 4.8%
Aerial Observation 4.2%
Offshore 4.2%
Firefighting 3.6%
Electronic News Gathering 1.7%
Utilities Patrol/Construction 2.1%
External Load 2.7%
Logging 2.7%
IHST’s Analysis of U.S. AccidentsCYs 2000, 2001, 2006 – 523 accidents
Personal/Private 18.5%
Instruction/Training 17.6%
Aerial Application 10.3%
Commercial 7.5%
Law Enforcement 6.5%
Electronic News Gathering 1.7%
External Load 2.7%
Utilities Patrol/Construction 2.1%
Emergency Medical Services 7.6%
Aerial Observation 4.2%
Firefighting 3.6%
Offshore 4.2%
Logging 2.7%
Air Tour / Sightseeing 5.9%
Business 4.8%
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Personal/Private 27.6%
Instructional/Training 18.9%
Aerial Application 18.9%
Commercial 11.0%
Emergency Medical Services 6.3%
Firefighting 0.8%
Aerial Observation 4.7%
Law Enforcement 3.1%
Offshore 0.8%
Business 1.6%
Air Tour / Sightseeing 1.6%
Utilities Patrol/Construction 2.4%
External Load 2.4%
2011 Analysis of U.S. Accidents
Personal/Private 27.6%
Instruction/Training 18.9%
Aerial Application 18.9%
Commercial 11.0%
Law Enforcement 3.1%
External Load 2.4%
Utilities Patrol/Construction 2.4%
Emergency Medical Services 6.3%
Aerial Observation 4.7%
Firefighting 0.8% Offshore 0.8%
Air Tour / Sightseeing 1.6%Business 1.6%
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Hopefully the last few slides left you with a better impression than this…
…but percentage of accidents within each industry sector is only half of the story.
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Personal/Private Accidents Compared to Flight Hours
U.S. Personal/Private Helicopter Accidents and Flight Hours
3%
6% 6%4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
18%20% 19% 20% 19% 20% 20%
21%22% 22%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
% of Rotorcraft Hours % of Rotorcraft Accidents
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Instruction/Training Accidents Compared to Flight Hours
U.S. Instructional/Training Helicopter Accidents and Flight Hours
11%9% 10%
13% 12%
20%
16%18%
16% 16%
21% 21%18%
24% 24%
20%
31%
16%
24%
17%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
% of Rotorcraft Hours % of Rotorcraft Accidents
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Aerial Application Accidents Compared to Flight Hours
U.S. Aerial Application Helicopter Accidents and Flight Hours
8%7% 7%
5% 5%4%
5%4% 4% 4%
8% 8%9%
8% 8%
3%5%
10%
7%
18%
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%18%20%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
% of Rotorcraft Hours % of Rotorcraft Accidents
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HEMS Accidents Compared to Flight Hours
U.S. EMS Helicopter Accidents and Flight Hours
12%14% 14%
15%16%
15%
9%
13%
10%
14%
8%7%
9%8% 8% 8%
6%
9%
6%
10%
0%
2%
4%6%
8%
10%
12%14%
16%
18%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
% of Rotorcraft Hours % of Rotorcraft Accidents
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Accident rate comparison
HEMS 2001 – 20103.9 accidents per 100,000 flight hours
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HEMS 2001 – 20103.9 accidents per 100,000 flight hours
Personal/Private 2001 – 201029.6 accidents per 100,000 flight hours
Accident rate comparison
Over 7 Times Higher than Helicopter EMS
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Another approach to examining rotorcraft accident trends:
Cro Amsaa
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Cro Amsaa?
…is not this (Cro Magnon).
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Cro Amsaa…is not this (Cro Magnon).
…but is this!
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Cro Amsaa Analysis
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26 26Federal AviationAdministration
Cro Amsaa Analysis
The value of Beta tells a story about the safety of our system
If Beta = 1: safety of the system is not changing
If Beta > 1: failures occurring faster
If Beta < 1: failures occurring slower
All Accidents CY 01 - 10All Accidents CY 01 - 05All Accidents CY 06 - 10
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Cro Amsaa Analysis
Bottom line:
Overall, the safety of our system got slightly better from 2001 to 2010.
Comparatively,
2001 to 2005: system safety was stagnant to slightly deteriorating
2006 to 2010: system safety was improving
All Accidents CY 01 - 10All Accidents CY 01 - 05All Accidents CY 06 - 10
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Cro Amsaa – All Rotorcraft Accidents
Our Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) offers further confirmation of a system that is trending toward better safety the last 5 years:
Note the increase in the MTBF for 2006 to 2010 in comparison to 2001 to 2005.
All Accidents CY 06 - 10All Accidents CY 01 - 05All Accidents CY 01 - 10
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Cro Amsaa - Only Personal/Private
Personal/Private Accidents CY 01 - 10
Personal/Private Accidents CY 01 - 05
Personal/Private Accidents CY 06 - 10
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Cro Amsaa - Only Personal/Private
Although the Personal/Private sector improved from 2006 to 2010, the sector still lags behind the beta of the overall system for every block of years examined.
Beta values of overall system during same block of years 0.9381.026
0.849
Personal/Private Accidents CY 01 - 10
Personal/Private Accidents CY 01 - 05
Personal/Private Accidents CY 06 - 10
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Cro Amsaa - Only Personal/Private
Using MTBF as a measurement, Personal/Private improved from 2006 to 2010 as compared to 2001 to 2005.
Personal/Private Accidents CY 01 – 10cPersonal/Private Accidents CY 01 - 05
Personal/Private Accidents CY 06 - 10
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Cro Amsaa - Only Personal/Private
The Personal/Private MTBF did improve by 2.5 days from 2006 to 2010 as compared to 2001 to 2005.
Personal/Private Accidents CY 01 - 10Personal/Private Accidents CY 01 - 05
Personal/Private Accidents CY 06 - 10
But the MTBFs don’t compare favorably to other industry sectors, e.g. HEMS.
HEMS MTBF CY 01 – 10:
HEMS MTBF CY 01 – 05:HEMS MTBF CY 06 – 10:
30.2325.0531.35
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Gathering data on U.S. rotorcraft can be difficult, but we’re not so desperate that we’ve resorted to this technique yet.
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What do we know about Personal/Private rotorcraft accidents?
• The IHST’s study of 523 U.S. accidents across 3 years provides the most complete analysis of:– What happened (Occurrence Categories)– Why it happened (Problem Statements)– How it could have been prevented (Intervention
Recommendations)
• The next several slides will look specifically at these areas for the 97 Personal/Private accidents (18.5% of the 523 total accidents) in the IHST’s U.S. data set.
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Personal/Private Accidents:Occurrence Categories tell “What happened?”
Note: During the IHST analysis, each accident could be placed in multiple occurrence categories, so the percentages shown are not intended to sum to 100%.
12%
21%
23%
27%
41%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Fuel Related
Struck an Object
System Component Failure
Autorotation
Loss of Control
Percentage of Personal/Private Accidents (97 accidents)
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Personal/Private Accidents:More about “Loss of Control”
• Loss of control occurrences were further divided into more specific sub-areas.
• For Personal/Private, the Loss of Control sub-areas most frequently cited were (in descending order):– Performance Management– Exceeded Operating Limits– Lost Tail Rotor Authority
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Personal/Private Accidents:Problem Statements tell “Why did it happen?”
Note: During the IHST analysis, each accident could be assigned multiple problem statements, so the percentages shown are not intended to sum to 100%.
23%
34%
41%
43%
90%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Part/system failure
Pilot Situational Awareness
Ground Duties
Safety Management
Pilot judgment & actions
Percentage of Personal/Private Accidents (97 accidents)
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Personal/Private Accidents:Problem Statements tell “Why did it happen?”
Note: During the IHST analysis, each accident could be assigned multiple problem statements, so the percentages shown are not intended to sum to 100%.
23%
34%
41%
43%
90%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Part/system failure
Pilot Situational Awareness
Ground Duties
Safety Management
Pilot judgment & actions
Percentage of Personal/Private Accidents (97 accidents)
For purposes of this presentation we will take a closer look at just a couple of the problem statements.
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Personal/Private Accidents:Further details for selected problem statements
• “Pilot Judgment & Actions” problems most frequently occurred in the following sub-areas:– Decision Making, Landing Procedures, Procedure
Implementation, Flight Profile
• “Pilot Situational Awareness” problems most frequently occurred in the following sub-areas:– Awareness of External Environment, Awareness of
Visibility/Weather, Awareness of Internal Aircraft Issues
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Personal/Private Accidents:Intervention Recommendations tell “How it could have been prevented”
Note: During the IHST analysis, each accident could be assigned multiple intervention recommendations, so percentages aren't intended to sum to 100%.
20%
29%
35%
62%
87%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Maintenance
Regulatory
Systems and Equipment
Safety Management
Training/Instructional
Percentage of Personal/Private Accidents (97 Accidents)
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Personal/Private Accidents:Intervention Recommendations tell “How it could have been prevented”
Note: During the IHST analysis, each accident could be assigned multiple intervention recommendations, so percentages aren't intended to sum to 100%.
20%
29%
35%
62%
87%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Maintenance
Regulatory
Systems and Equipment
Safety Management
Training/Instructional
Percentage of Personal/Private Accidents (97 Accidents)
For purposes of this presentation we will take a closer look at only Systems and Equipment recommendations.
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Personal/Private Accidents:A closer look at the top “Systems and Equipment” intervention recommendations
• Post Incident Survivability– Crash resistant fuel systems– Install Wire Strike Protection System– Improve helicopter specific ELT practices/standards
• Situational Awareness Enhancers– Install proximity detection system– Wire detection system for low altitude operations
• Cockpit Indication/Warning– Automate carburetor anti-ice function or early warning alert– Fuel system status
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43 43Federal AviationAdministration
The first recorded incident of a pilot choosing to ignore statistical data at the risk of his crew and passengers happened a long time ago…
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…in a galaxy far, far away.But sir, the possibility of successfully navigating an asteroid field is approximately 3,720 to 1!!
Never tell me the odds!!
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What do we know about Instructional/Training Accidents?
• Second highest number of accidents of any industry sector studied by the IHST’s review of U.S. helicopter accidents
• 92 accidents in Instructional Training– 17.6% of the 523 total accidents studied
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Instructional/Training Accidents: Occurrence Categories tell “What happened?”
Note: During the IHST analysis, each accident could be placed in multiple occurrence categories, so the percentages shown are not intended to sum to 100%.
9%
15%
17%
54%
61%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Landing Zone
System Component Failure
Abnormal Runway Contact
Autorotation
Loss of Control
Percentage of Instructional/Training Accidents (92 accidents)
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47 47Federal AviationAdministration
Instructional/Training Accidents:More about “Loss of Control”
• Loss of control occurrences were further divided into more specific sub-areas.
• For Instructional/Training, the Loss of Control sub-areas most frequently cited were (in descending order):– Performance Management– Interference with Controls– Dynamic Rollover
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Instructional/Training Accidents:Problem Statements tell “Why did it happen?”
Note: During the IHST analysis, each accident could be assigned multiple problem statements, so the percentage shown are not intended to sum to 100%
17%
20%
20%
54%
93%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Part/system failure
Pilot Situational Awareness
Ground Duties
Safety Management
Pilot judgment & actions
Percentage of Instructional/Training Accidents (92 accidents)
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Instructional/Training Accidents:Problem Statements tell “Why did it happen?”
Note: During the IHST analysis, each accident could be assigned multiple problem statements, so the percentage shown are not intended to sum to 100%
17%
20%
20%
54%
93%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Part/system failure
Pilot Situational Awareness
Ground Duties
Safety Management
Pilot judgment & actions
Percentage of Instructional/Training Accidents (92 accidents)
For purposes of this presentation we will take a closer look at just a couple of the problem statements.
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Instructional/Training Accidents:Further details for selected problem statements
• “Pilot Judgment & Actions” problems most frequently occurred in the following sub-areas:– Procedure Implementation, Landing Procedures,
Crew Resource Management, Decision Making
• “Pilot Situational Awareness” problems most frequently occurred in the following sub-areas:– Awareness of External Environment
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Instructional/Training Accidents:Intervention Recommendations tell “How it could have been prevented”
Note: During the IHST analysis, each accident could be assigned multiple intervention recommendations, so percentages aren't intended to sum to 100%
8%
8%
15%
57%
92%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Regulatory
Maintenance
Systems and Equipment
Safety Management
Training/Instructional
Percentage of Instructional/Training Accidents (92 Accidents)
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Instructional/Training Accidents:Intervention Recommendations tell “How it could have been prevented”
Note: During the IHST analysis, each accident could be assigned multiple intervention recommendations, so percentages aren't intended to sum to 100%
8%
8%
15%
57%
92%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Regulatory
Maintenance
Systems and Equipment
Safety Management
Training/Instructional
Percentage of Instructional/Training Accidents (92 Accidents)
For purposes of this presentation we will take a closer look at only Systems and Equipment recommendations.
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Instructional/Training Accidents:A closer look at the top “Systems and Equipment” intervention recommendations
• Post Incident Survivability– Crash resistant fuel systems– Install Wire Strike Protection System
• Cockpit Warning/Indication– Install low rotor warning– Provide power available versus power required indicator– Low airspeed indicator warning
• Situational Awareness Enhancers– Wire detection system for low altitude operations– Automatic hover recovery system– Proximity detection system
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The IHST study of U.S. rotorcraft accidents went quite a bit deeper than this.
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What do we know about Aerial Application Accidents?• Third highest number of accidents of any industry
sector studied by the IHST’s review of U.S. helicopter accidents.
• 54 accidents in Aerial Application– 10.3% of the 523 total accidents studied
• Despite trailing Personal/Private and Instructional/Training in the IHST study’s percentage of total accidents, concerns in this industry sector are growing.
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Percentage of Aerial Application Helicopter Accidents – Last 5 Years
5%
10%
7%
18%19%
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%18%20%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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5%
10%
7%
18%19%
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%18%20%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Percentage of Aerial Application Helicopter Accidents – Last 5 Years
Percentages the last 2 years are comparable to Personal/Private. Also, like Personal/Private, the flight hour exposure level is relatively low.
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Knowing when U.S. Aerial Application rotorcraft accidents are more likely to occur does not require much guessing…
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Aerial Application Accidents by Month: 10 years from 2001-2010
3% 4% 4% 4%
10% 10%
30%
11%15%
4% 3% 1%0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
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Aerial Application Accidents by Month:10 years from 2001-2010
3% 4% 4% 4%
10% 10%
30%
11%15%
4% 3% 1%0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
76% of accidents during 6 month peak U.S. growing season of May - Sep
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Future challenges – what to do now?• Personal/Private, Instructional/Training, and Aerial
Application pose unique problems
• Difficult population of operators to reach– Not likely to attend major industry or government safety forums– Less awareness/exposure to industry-wide safety initiatives and best
practices
• Small fleet sizes, often just 1 aircraft
• Have to convince them of the benefits to make any change– Must be low cost or no cost– Must make the case that it will show immediate results
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The goals set by the rotorcraft community for reductions in U.S. rotorcraft accidents will require no higher than single digit annual accident totals in each industry sector of Personal/Private, Instructional/Training, and Aerial Application.
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The goals set by the rotorcraft community for reductions in U.S. rotorcraft accidents will require no higher than single digit annual accident totals in each industry sector of Personal/Private, Instructional/Training, and Aerial Application.
This is where we stood at the end of 2011:
So, there is some work to be done.
Personal/Private: 35 accidents
Instructional/Training: 24 accidents
Aerial Application: 24 accidents
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Difficult problems sometimes lead to a new level of cooperation and innovation to find a solution….
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…the results may surprise everyone.
Difficult problems sometimes lead to a new level of cooperation and innovation to find a solution….
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If you found the portions of this presentation that referenced the work by the IHST useful, please go to the following address for more information, including detailed analysis reports:
www.ihst.org
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Questions?