us rice trade with mexico: integrated supply chain or just exports?

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US rice trade with Mexico: Integrated Supply Chain or Just Exports? Eric Wailes University of Arkansas

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US rice trade with Mexico: Integrated Supply Chain or Just Exports?. Eric Wailes University of Arkansas. US rice trade with Mexico. Mexico as an import market for US rice US as a competitive supplier to Mexico Development of an integrated supply chain. Source of rice in Mexico. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: US rice trade  with Mexico: Integrated Supply Chain  or Just Exports?

US rice trade with Mexico:

Integrated Supply Chain

or Just Exports?

Eric WailesUniversity of

Arkansas

Page 2: US rice trade  with Mexico: Integrated Supply Chain  or Just Exports?

US rice trade with Mexico

• Mexico as an import market for US rice

• US as a competitive supplier to Mexico

• Development of an integrated supply chain

Page 3: US rice trade  with Mexico: Integrated Supply Chain  or Just Exports?

Mexico's share of US rice exports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Pe

rce

nt

Page 4: US rice trade  with Mexico: Integrated Supply Chain  or Just Exports?

Total U.S. Rice Exports to Mexico, Milled Basis

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

Met

ric

tons

Rough Milled

Page 5: US rice trade  with Mexico: Integrated Supply Chain  or Just Exports?

Source of rice in Mexico

0100200300400500600700800900

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Th

ou

san

d M

T

Production Imports

Page 6: US rice trade  with Mexico: Integrated Supply Chain  or Just Exports?

Drivers of growth in rice trade

• NAFTA preferences– Tariffs were eliminated on US rice compared to:– MFN rates:

• 9% paddy• 20% brown and milled• 10% brokens

• Decline in Mexican rice production– Switch to higher value fruit and vegetables

• Demand growth driven by GDP growth (2.9%)• Income elasticity of demand 0.46

Page 7: US rice trade  with Mexico: Integrated Supply Chain  or Just Exports?

Competitiveness of US paddy

• US is one of few exporters willing to export paddy (along with Argentina and Uruguay)

• Phytosanitary barriers maintained by Mexico against Asian rice

• Logistical advantages of US

Page 8: US rice trade  with Mexico: Integrated Supply Chain  or Just Exports?

Why paddy exports vs. milled?

• Tariff escalation and implicit subsidy for Mexico rice mills

• Previous research has suggested that there would be a switch to milled exports with harmonization/elimination of tariffs in NAFTA

• Mexican milling industry is competitive– Mexican mills have strong brands in retail market– By-product values are much higher in Mexico than

US, especially bran and brokens.– Continuation of countervailing duties on much of US

milled rice (all but 2 US mills)

Page 9: US rice trade  with Mexico: Integrated Supply Chain  or Just Exports?

Why the lack of supply chain integration?

• US mills viewed as a threat– countervailing duties imposed since 1999

• Mexican partners viewed as too risky• Dominance of few large Mexican mills in

branded rice with distribution advantages• Growth of supermarkets who limit SKUs makes

these brands valuable and competitive• Greater likelihood in the future that Mexican mills

will invest in the US

Page 10: US rice trade  with Mexico: Integrated Supply Chain  or Just Exports?

Summary/conclusions

• Yes. US rice is just exports (paddy)

• Lack of deeper supply chain integration a result of tension between the Mexican and US millers

• May well see integration come from Mexican side as in the case of the baking industry